₦airaland Forum

aolawale025:
These rails are to be funded with loans. Why not concentrate on more economically viable routes and build on a BOOT (build-own-operate-transfer) basis. Let the revenue from the loans pay for the projects.

Funding mix are complex...... it is getting more difficult to get funders......... you don't want to "give-away" everything to lenders and incur the wrath of your people.......... You as a government also want a stake and make profit

xynerise:
Did you finish the one you started in Rivers State?

So? What stops the Wike from continuing? Even Fashola did not finish the one he started in Lagos

TheDokita:
Amaechi is a very hardworking minister.

I agree

ikorodureporta:
..are state capitals that big to be having rail services? Say 'all states'

I think it's strategic to connect all state capitals, no matter how small. I disagree with Amaechi a bit, in that the aspiration while being economic, must also be political. Politics and business cannot be separate especially when it comes to national concern. All states, peoples and tribes have the right to aspire for, and "politic" to get benefit to their regions. It behooves on the leader to now balance these sectional interest with national concerns

Blue3k:
Hopefully Nass amends railway act. It would do some good in attracting investment into the country. It helped India turkey and UK attract billions. I reposted story about amending 1965 railway act if you guys are interesting.



Ok Challenged accepted. I think India has done it according to this article. Might be wrong though.

I also felt that's a huge challenge..... but I believe his emphasis was that governments conventionally owns the rails, while private plays bring coaches, wagons, and other stuffs and operate. A quick read of the Indian model shows a creative way of letting the private sector build and recoup their investment at a ceiling (something tantamount to the PSC model of the Oil and Gas industry here), but the ownership (of the rails)is still government. The contractors are simply what they are, contractors.

This is from a Facebook post and most likely fake

zabadii:
Igbo made Resurrection again?

Blue3k:
The growth is pretty low considering Nigeria developing country. The growth is also being fueled by oil why non oil sector contracting a bit.

Truth is the growth in many of the non-Oil sector will be rather gradual and not immediate. That market has to be almost fully developed with many of its fundamentals gotten right.

Desyner:
What the likes of Kachikwu say is always tilted towards being political correct.
It will take people who aren't politically connected to one side or the other here to give truly fair opinions. Kachikwu has his master to appeal to and may never give us a true picture of what is best for the average Nigerian.
I have never heard of a situation where govt prioritizes refinement of proven reserves below discovery of new ones. It is only in Nigeria I see people do it and even defend it with irrelevant facts in order to sway unsuspecting onlookers.

trilobite:
leaders of thought? what does that even mean?

Continuing this argument would mean revealing my identity hence my decision to drop. (hint from my hash tag)

I must say though, I respect your passion. cheers!!

I respect you as well. I have also chosen to "choose" my words carefully so as not to reveal the identity of my organisation, else we would have gotten "specifics"

raker300:
Lol..

Ken Saro wiwa preached against igbos and biafra..

When he was about to get executed, he decided to reach out to the same people that he castigated.

Everyone that wished igbos harm suffered same fate in the hands of same political power..


Igbos are God’s own

Stop talking about an event that happened before you were born. The underlined is a blatant lie.

trilobite:
imaging deeper?!! How I wish I could take you there for field work.

Remember I said there is a difference between public and private conversation.
what one says in public, can differ from what he knows privately.
With your experience you should know how much is spent on the surveys and what geologists get.
It has never been in their best interest to be pessimistic. You need to have a private conversation with your so called " experts".
I wish Nigerians good luck in their wild goose chase.

#freeDrSolomon.

I speak from experience on this. My organisation had to relook one of our over 40yr-old block...and that was what we did. Aside the foreign organisation that did the seismic he same IDSL interpreting the data for NNPC on these frontier basins are the ones interpreting our data as well. Bros, I have seen my modest share of field work. Those that have done the work when they talk I know they are talking from experience

So talking about your so-called wild "good chase", just 24hrs ago, Kachikwu further clarified the need to continue with exploration on these basins. You wonder why "leaders of thought" are going on a "wild goose chase"?

Desyner:
Typical you. Always replying to imagined stuff. I don't need you to know the core-workforce around which these refineries plan to run will be small compared to the overall people they will be employing directly or indirectly.
No need trying to explain what oil-servicing firms do. Without the main oil firms like Dangote refinery, will there be any smaller firm? Go to enerhen road Warri and ask question to see how heavy this value chain used to be for smaller refineries ? Go to Port Harcourt and observe the activity around refining alone. We have no silly excuse not to refine every drop of oil we produce.

What century was that?

Desyner:
Stop creating phantom stuff. Why is dangote putting his own figures out there in the media then? Call it value -chain all you want. What matters to me is what we are losing. Dangote is going to contract some of those out to smaller firms. I have spent decades around such smaller firms here in the ND. [U]I can tell you those jobs are real. Stop trying too hard to win an arguement.[/U]

this is why I don't take you serious

Desyner:
Can you please lecture us more on "what I think" . . . Lol. You are really funny with your imagined stuffs.

I'd rather not get into your head any further, cos you have the tendency to be confused.....naturally

trilobite:
Guess I am speaking to a fellow geologist. The problem with the Nigerian section has never been the absence of structures or stratigraphic sequence, its the presence of the volcanic extrusions (basalts).

Even borehole drillers face serious difficulty obtaining ground water in certain areas because of the basalt. researchers ages ago theorized that just like the delta crude oil must have formed in the basin but the extrusions affected its migration.
Like I said a private conversation with a senior geologist versed in the basin's geology will clear your doubt.

Bros,

I am not a geologist, but learnt the trade in the "industry", I have studied under geologist with over 35years experience and global exposure. This is not finite science. I believe what you call Problem with the Nigerian section, the presence of the volcanic extrusions and more have been identified by industry professionals. I am of the belief that technology today (especially 3D/4D Psuedo-Seimic) will enable the imaging of deeper sections. Let me also quote the submission of industry experts who supports this notion regardless of the

The former Shell Nigeria director and respected geologist, who had urged the country not to walk away from the Chad basin, added during the week that:“The Basin tectonics of the place is irrefutable.

“We don’t even need to discuss the Chad Basin, the evidence is there across the border. BUT I said the sediment thickness and volcanic MAY go against us on our side. If we decide to close our eyes to the science because of political hatred, may God have mercy on us and forgive us.”

He further submitted

“Take Chad Basin: you have hydrocarbons on the Chad side but we have not been lucky to find them on our side in commercial quantities. Reason: sediment thickness, trapping conditions and geothermal history – looks like (emphasis mine) the volcanics that occurred in that trend (and there is evidence in the Biu area) may have resulted in “over cooking” and compromised the trapping. My conclusion: don’t walk away from such a basin. Invest in solid high fidelity data acquisition and processing, followed by AND accompanied by ‘okponku’ i.e. sound basin studies.

Keeping it simple, I am saying that, technology have given us leverage to image deeper and advanced drilling techniques will enable us to get to oil.

trilobite:
"based on data". Which data? seismic? they have been drilling in that basin since the obj administration and have found nothing.

Have you read the other points I submitted where I addressed what you ask?

Desyner:
Scared of what exactly? That Nigeria is losing hundreds of thousands of jobs?

Specialised jobs? Explain

oduastates:
What have we done with the money from oil ?
Nothing .
Apart from distorting the economy and real pathettic state of Nigeria.

We can learn from our mistakes. We should not make a second mistake by shying away from oil. The US, Russia, Saudi Arabia etc are still in deep exploration for oil till date

trilobite:
I was taught by geologists who concluded that crude oil in the chad basin if present would not be economically viable.
imagine my shock, when I learnt that same geologists were running the government funded surveys being carried out in the areas.


Go to geology departments in the north and privately converse with senior lecturers they will tell you the same thing:

It is an expensive, unnecessary wild goose chase, But one most geologists would like to be a part of.

Humour me. Can you elaborate on what they "taught" you. Which data did they support their "assertions" with?

Amberon11:
The worst part is that they will be the first to preach how our oil is becoming useless but they're spending "our oil money" to find more oil in the north.

Bros,

I have addressed the politics of it in answer to your submission, but there is the economics of it as well. To cover our infrastructure deficit, Nigeria is projected to need $100b annually. Our current budget makes provision only for $50b....and that is even at a stretch of it. We need to make up for the deficit, if we don't want to be perpetually funding our budget deficit with huge debt. So I will imagine that if we are to make up for this, why will we not pursue every resource that we are blessed with?

Oil in the North, as with Oil anywhere we have it (Benue, Anambra, Ondo etc) is strategic to us developing our economic aspiration. These are "low hanging fruits" that we can use to accelerate the development of other sectors - Infrastructure, Tourism, Agriculture, Technology etc

Blue3k:
My issue is where exactly they're prospecting. The Chad basin and Benue Trough best spots. Everything I read on one petro says so. Sokoto, Yobe and Jigawa never came up papers.



Schlumberger recently partnered on oil and gas exploration let's see if Benue has anything interesting. If they do SE gas reserves should be looked into more.

1. I believe the govt needs to commit to educating the populace about what guides the aspiration for exploration in each of these areas and the progress in each area. I think based on data, Chad basin is became the major focus as the prospects are high.
2. Secondly if we had investors ready to commit to exploration, it would have been better. A lot of factors dissuade investors from exploration phase
3. Wrt Gas, many E & P coys are discovering more gas reserves in deeper sections in the Niger-Delta. Many land drilling activities are crossing the average of 12,000 - 14,000 ft and making forays beyond 20,000ft to tap newer Gas reserves.

oduastates:
My problem with this is not the idea of prospecting for oil in the north . If at all , a major discovery might smoothen the path towards restructuring or self governance. My grouse is the idea of oil after over 50 years with nothing to show for the oil apart from sorrow, tears and blood .
When are we going to start prospecting for a knowledge based economy.

It took Ghana over 100yrs. Exploration for Oil is a continuous exercise as we continue to learn more about the tectonics of the sub-surface

horsepower101:
Electric cars are coming and oil will crash soon.

Electric cars will spur the demand for more Gas. If and when Oil crashes, gas prices will rise. The projected interplay is interesting. Pls read these links below
1. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2017/bp-energy-outlook-2017.pdf
2. https://www.woodmac.com/news/editorial/2035-global-gas-market/
3. http://www.ogj.com/articles/2017/02/shell-global-lng-demand-to-rise-4-5-year-to-2030.html

Desyner:
Even more painful is the fact the we export over 1.5m bpd of crude when we could refine them to employ over 400,000 persons. Imagine the impact of N-POWER employing 200,000 people and paying just 30k. Now imagine what oil industry pay on the average and multiply that by 400,000

1. Oil and Gas is a value-chain. You cannot separate "refinery" as a provider of "more jobs" and use as comparative to exploration. That confuses the point. Exploration is a "specialized" exercise and requires "rare & specialized skills", as such requires few people. Refineries also requires relatively few specialized skilled workers, the rest are indirect jobs. For example the major people that will work in Dangote refinery (Engineer & Plant Maintenace Technicians) are already mostly employed and currently undergoing training in India. The others are indirect jobs.

2. So your "....imagine what the oil industry pay on the average and multiply that by 400,000" is laugbable . It is not that simple. For starters Dangote promises 190k or their about direct+Indirect jobs. Those indirect ones may not be Dangote staff. They will have jobs because they or their organisation will offer services to the Refinery.

3. That said, the benefits of privatizing these surface facilities is much bigger than you think.

ehispapa:
sometimes i wonder if our leaders are actually educated or plain stupid. why not explore solid minerals in the north instead of going on a wild goose chase. God is not stupid to deposit these different resources in the various locations. Zambia, botswana and South Africa, all have solid minerals and they are doing well and better than us. why not we also be grateful and explore that which is is available instead of searching for the unknown

1. Oil exploration in the North is not a wild goose chase. Science/Data supports it.

2. Go for solid minerals? Why not?I believe that is why Fayemi is trying to sanitise the extractive industry. It takes a lot to develop a solid minerals industry, a lot of work has to be put in place, a lot of money has to be spent. Like oil, we need to be able to answer specifically the value of the solid minerals that we have as a starting point. This is why initiatives like the Integrated Portal System is important

3. The bigger question is why not go for the two. Saudi Arabia, with its huge reserves and investment in Oil, also makes heavy investments in solid minerals like feldspar and nepheline syenite; garnet; gold; zinc; granite; graphite; gypsum; tantalum; high-grade silica sand; kaolinitic clays. It is a major seller of Gold, Steel and Alluminium

So let me pick some of the issues and submit

Economics & Commercial

I went into all these stories to build up to this point. Most of these areas are already in the public domain. This is what people interface with and probably believe Oil and Gas is limited to.

1. So I start with the ridiculous statement made by the Guardian writer

"Industry experts, who spoke with The Guardian, said the persistent push by some northern leaders, including President Muhammadu Buhari, points to an underlining reason far beyond the quest, which is far from being of economic benefit to the country."

. Even from the politics of it, this beggars logic. First of, the Nigerian law bequeaths the TOTAL ownership of everything in the sub-surface to the Federal Government; i.e. your Coal in Enugu belongs to the FG and you cannot take anything until the FG gives you that right. States only get 13% of profit, while the FG gets the 87@ and much more in terms of signature bonus, Royalties, NDDC etc. If the laws have not changed, then commercially speaking the beneficiary of oil discovery is primarily the FG.

2. Another falsification of facts in the report is this

"This also raises the issue over lack of transparency and accountability in the NNPC, as only Prof. Jerry Gana, in 2013, while serving as chairman of the Northern Nigeria Economic Summit, disclosed that N27billion was spent on oil and gas exploration in the Lake Chad Basin at that time with additional $340million budgeted."

- This is not correct. The amount spent to date has been declared by virtually all that led the efforts. Let me give 2 examples

a. As at 2008

Abubakar Yar'adua said over the weekend that the corporation has invested about $500 million (N58 billion) in Chad basin oil search and the geologists declared that though https://www.nairaland.com/190190/oil-boom-likely-northern-nigeria

b. In 2016

AFTER 3 decades of elusive search for hy­drocarbons in the Lake Chad Basin where the Federal Government spent about $340 million and additional N27 billion, in seismic expedition, Nigeria looks set to continue its crude oil exploration in the North East region
http://sunnewsonline.com/how-fg-spent-340m-n27bn-in-search-of-oil-in-the-north/

3. My third areas of grouse is this

"Analysts insist that now is the time for government to use the already discovered oil reserves to exit from the current mono-product petroleum economy."

Unfortunately, a limited understanding of the oil business will probably be the reason why the writer will deem our a perpetual (emphasis mine) mono-product economy. This business value chain is tied to many other benefits, chief among them is Gas. Others areas that we have not really developed are Petrochemicals, Fertilizers and other Bi-products.

Let us first start from Gas. The global demand for Gas is projected to rise significantly between now and a foreseeable future (2035). See few examples
a. US is projecting to increase her Gas (LNG) output and supplies to Europe by 60% by 2020. This speaks to their exploration and investment in Shale Oil.
b. The Gas-to-Power demand by China is projected to rise up to 336% by 2030, India 156%........

Those of you who speak of Electric cars, you only look at a part. There is a credible argument that the rise of electric car and consequent rise in demand for electricity will be synonymous with the upsurge in demand for Gas. The NNPC under the leadership of Diezani started something phenomenal - The Nigerian Gas Master Plan. This initiative was led by a very smart Dr. David Ige. I was partly involved in this as an interface for my organisation, so I can attest to this. It is this same plan that Kachikwu modified and is trying to implement. Some elements of the plans are these

a. Nigeria is deemed a predominant Gas producer. It has been discovered that we have more Gas reserves than oil.
b. To accelerate "Gas-Industrial-Parks" - Which will spin-of Gas-to-power projects, Petrochemicals, Glass industries, Fertilizers businesses.....@Desyner, these jobs you refer to are mostly indirect jobs and can be situated here.


4. Let me address investment surface facilities - Refineries and Petrochemical Plants as two examples. This is where there has been economic waste. After many years of Turn-Around-Maintenances (TAMs), which in many cases were given as "contracts" to politicians who knew nothing about plants, what do we have to show? If you look at our performance in our refineries, you and I will discourage government from making further investment. OBJ it was that sold Kaduna refinery to Dangote, when he discovered that the last work by popular politician from the east was a monumental corruption. That is why I disagree with PMB's approach of trying to revamp our refineries. Leave refineries and other plants to the private sectors. Look at the case of Eleme Petrochemicals in PH for example, over the years, this plant never operated up to 40% capacity. When FG sold part of its holding in to private players, in the first 1yr, the plant started operating at 100% capacity using the same Nigerian staff.

5. The business of privatizing refineries is a forgone conclusion anyways. Many private players already have taken up licenses. What I am not sure of is if these players have been able to raise enough investment to start. I am familiar with Dangote refinery from a distant.

The Politics of it.

There are many schools of thought in this regard, two of them are more prominent. A school believes that the search for oil in the North is politically motivated. Some along this line also believes (as also mentioned on NL), that "we are using Niger-Delta oil money to discover oil in the North". There is another school that plays the politics in a stealth manner. These are the people that will keep quiet, but at the sound of "prospects of oil in their domain, they don't resist the offer. These are the South-Westerners/South-South/East (Lagos, Ondo, even Edo, Anambra). Truth be told, we are all playing the politics of it. It had been done globally from time and till date you cannot separate issues politics, international diplomacy, Wars etc from Oil business. Let me recommend this book - The Prize by Daniel Yergin; it makes an interesting read..........

First off, multiple scenarios can be played in a success case. If "commercial find" is discovered in Anambra for example, can you deny the south of South-East Development Council(SEDC)? If Oil is found in the North, are we still going to stay on the 13th derivation formula? Are we not going to push towards regional govt model? What will be the fate of the minorities, considering that their mainstay has been explored, a future where their reserves are depleted and abandoned without commensurate restoration of their environment to initial state not to talk of commensurate development? Some are simply so dogmatic that oil CANNOT/SHOULD NOT be found in the North.

The issue of timing is relative. I believe there is no good or bad time to search for oil. If you have the resources to, why not. The search for oil may or may not happen in a short span. For example Ghana never gave up and it took them century to discover. Chad, Gabon, Cameroon and Equitorial Guinea had relatively shorter span of time.

We should also understand that the politics of oil also speaks to a country's relative power in the international scene. Your reserves are also part of what is used in valuation, economics and trade. Ideally, the presence of Oil triggers infrastructural development - That is why Ghana and Angola has learnt from the "mistakes" Nigeria made in terms of not tying the License to Operate (LTO) to defined national infrastructural projects.

I want to believe that the guardian writer made what I would call a political statement in saying "while the south is enriched with hydrocarbons, the north is blessed with solid minerals, thus, solid minerals and hydrocarbons cannot coexist" - wrong. Geologist in the house can help put this into proper perspective. Literature has it that organic matter within source rocks is formed in sedimentarty basins (depression), and it coexist with other minerals. So you cannot say these other areas are predominantly solid minerals and no oil.

Summary

1. The politics of Oil is good if played with altruistic intent. It becomes bad when we play it with hatred even at the expense of the growth of the nation.
2. I believe all parties parties will continue to play the politics, but we must not loose sight of the national aspiration. The governors of Nasarawa, Ondo, Anambra, Borno etc will not ignore the prospect of oil in there state. Naturally, they will push for an acceleration of the program. States like Lagos who had not based their growth forecast on Oil in the past, did not ignore the exploration activities on Aje Field. Lagos actively pushed to be included in the "13% derivation". Nobody will ignore Oil

Desyner:
Scared of what exactly? That Nigeria is losing hundreds of thousands of jobs?

Your perception of Jobs as regards this industry is limited. I will address that too

horsepower101:
Electric car is coming. That's all I will say for now.

Give me some time, I will not only address the electric car issue, I will situate it in proper perspective. Keep your fingers crossed

Secondly Let me address the science of it. I invite other experienced geologist who are following to comment as well.

I will take my cue from some of the statement in the guardian article which I found factually incorrect or half-truths. Some of them are not explicit and skewed in my opinion (I may be wrong).

Conventionally oil are found in "traps" (reservoir kitchen) found in basins. Hence exploration are attracted to these areas that are the entire Nigerian Frontier Sedimentary Basins - Chad, Anambra, Nasarawa, Bida, Dahomey, Gongola/Yola and the Sokota Basins alongside the Middle/Lower Benue Trough. So the writer argues that

"While those in favour of the search disregard the economic waste, but are encouraged by the success of oil finds in neighbouring countries like Niger, Chad and others, geologists who are mindful of the soil composition of hydrocarbon reserves, think it’s an effort in futility"

. Two issues for me here. How did the writer come to the conclusion that it is an economic waste? Is it because we have spent $3b? Is there a comparative or benchmark spendings referred to that serves as basis to make this an economic waste? For example, is it that there is a science that is contrary to what the expedition in these area runs contrary to?

Secondly, I would have expected to see an explanation of how the "soil composition of hydrocarbon reserves" in these "areas" are different. No where in the write-up did she explain how. How specifically is the "soil composition of hydrocarbon reserves" in the Chad basin in Nigeria different from that of Lake Chad?. See below how the second writer which I quoted explicated the science that justifies the expedition

1.

....“It is an incontrovertible fact that the petroleum system has been established in the frontier basins,” he says. “This includes finding a source rock, reservoir rock and a conduit that links the two. Once these have been established, there is encouragement to drill for further examination.

2.

“The Basin tectonics of the place is irrefutable. The evidence of the opening and closing of the Benue Trough is there – the Andesites.

“We don’t even need to discuss the Chad Basin, the evidence is there across the border. BUT I said the sediment thickness and volcanic MAY go against us on our side. If we decide to close our eyes to the science because of political hatred, may God have mercy on us and forgive us.”

3.

“Take Chad Basin: you have hydrocarbons on the Chad side but we have not been lucky to find them on our side in commercial quantities. Reason: sediment thickness, trapping conditions and geothermal history – looks like (emphasis mine) the volcanics that occurred in that trend (and there is evidence in the Biu area) may have resulted in “over cooking” and compromised the trapping. My conclusion: don’t walk away from such a basin. Invest in solid high fidelity data acquisition and processing, followed by AND accompanied by ‘okponku’ i.e. sound basin studies.

4.

“The same goes for Anambra basin – there the volcanics resulting from the failure of the ’opening of a sea’ linked to the Atlantic…..and maybe the Mediterranean! (plate tectonics) may have over cooked the sediments there.”

Under the leadership of Diezani as Minister, NNPC justified the exploration as well

Mrs. Alison Madueke as saying that "Though it is too early to be categorical, there is a possibility that we may find oil in commercial quantity in the Chad Basin because of the discoveries of commercial hydrocarbon deposits in neighboring countries of Chad, Niger and Sudan which have similar structural settings with the Chad Basin. . Therefore it is prudent to aggressively explore the Chad Basin for possible hydrocarbon deposits, ’’ the Minister stated.

Discoveries made in neighbouring countries in basins with similar structural settings are: Doba, Doseo and Bongor all in Chad amounts to over 2 Billion barrels (Bbbls); Logone Birni in Southern Chad and Northern Cameroun, over 100 Bbbls; and Termit-Agadem Basin in Niger totals over 1Bbbls.

Toyin Akinoso, an ex-Chevron geologist and the Editor of Oil and Gas Report had this to say

"He said: “There is justification because we all know from the Chadian and Niger side, there’s been commercial discovery. It is the same sedimentary basin that straddles across these international boundaries, so we will be under-performing if we decide not to go and search on our side of the basin and other basins."

. Please note that it is this same man that debunked the incorrect impression that most of the oil blocks are owned by Northerners.

Finally from NNPC/NAPE

"But NNPC, and the new leadership of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE), are convinced that the data gathered so far from the inland basins showed possible signs of commercial hydrocarbon in the region." - even the old leadership of NAPE

.

Summary

1. The guardian writer did not back up her claims on the "the soil composition of hydrocarbon reserves" with any factual or scientific evidence. On the contrary scientist in the field has backed up their claims with data.
2. Science justifies the expedition and as such it cannot be deemed a economic waste (I will address this in detail under economic/commercial soon)