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Mikeapollo's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 4:27pm On Aug 05, 2025
Zagee:
SA 45GW and expanding over 60% utilisation
Mor 11GW abd expanding with 100% utilisation
Nga 13GW and expanding with less than 30% utilisation
When did Nigeria start generating 13,000MW?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 3:49pm On Aug 05, 2025
Zagee:
Compare power distribution capacity grin
I think SA has doing about 45,000 - 50,000MW while Nigeria is struggling with about 5,000-7000MW
Politics › Re: Remi Tinubu Donates ₦1 Billion To Mokwa Flood Disaster Victims In Niger State by mikeapollo: 3:37pm On Aug 05, 2025
etokhana:
https://x.com/NTANewsNow/status/1952716271948034510?t=oN0EhGTkScjhwvdcd2ERuA&s=19[/quote]This woman was telling some people a few months ago that she and her husband did not have money and someone had to lend them money.
This is the fourth or fifth time she has donated N1billion within the last 2 years alone.
Where does she get the money from?
Politics › Re: Fuel Imports Surge To 71% As Marketers Ditch Local Refineries by mikeapollo: 3:31pm On Aug 05, 2025
Urgent1Million:
Thank you for acknowledging the bolded.
Some people are letting their hatred for Tinubu as a person cloud their judgement of Tinubu's actions as the president of the country.
Dangote has been playing a game of emotion and victimization for some time now.
He wants to convince or even blackmail the president using the "Nigeria first" policy to make Tinubu push for a suspension of important of fuel.
Then Dangote will become a monopoly, create artificial scarcity and jack up prices.
Unfortunately for him, Tinubu understands the game in the petroleum sector very well and will never fall for that plan.
Let Dangote and other local refiners compete for the share of the market with other marketers.
Market forces will continue to drive prices and Nigeria will be better for it.
Does it make sense to you that Nigeria should be importing refined petroleum products when we have crude oil?
What a reasonable and sensible govt would do is to make crude available to Dangote refinery at a specific naira price and demand that Dangote makes specific volume of the product available to Nigerians at an agreed fair price , in order to reduce cost of energy, transportation, rejuvenate the economy, create more jobs and strengthen the naira. But here we are, supporting wrong thing.
No country ever develops through ''market forces''. The govt has to take deliberate steps to empower local industries. China and Russia did it. Today, Donald Trump is protecting American businesses and imposing trade tariffs, which is clearly against market forces, but a Nigerian here is pretending to know and understand market forces more than America
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 3:14pm On Aug 05, 2025
GeneralDae:
In terms of total stock market capitalisation (equities) in all of Africa:

1) South Africa - $1.17 trillion
2) Morocco - $100.1 Billion
3) Nigeria - $59.3 Billion

(As at close of trade yesterday and using official exchange rates)
Wow.
Does it mean Nigerian companies are relatively low valued compared to S/A companies? Or there are more big time multinational companies listed on the SA exchange
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 3:04pm On Aug 05, 2025
KarlTom:
ARADEL. +1.17%
CONOIL. ±
ETERNA. -4.88%
OandO. +5.69%
Seems Oando is getting support/resistance at N50 in spite of the controversial Q2 2025 results
Not a buy/sell advice. DYOR
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 12:52pm On Aug 05, 2025
SonofElElyonRet:
Make you no dey quick abuse people. Just because you think so doesn't make it fact
Probably a stark reflection of poor training, lack of discipline or disgustingly nauseating youthful recklessness?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 12:35pm On Aug 05, 2025
Itzlinda:
I'm just angry I'm just finding out about this thread not long ago.

I have doubled my money since I joined 3 months ago.

I was losing money back to back in crypto
You are welcome and may you gain bountifully in the stocks market.

It is the inflow from funds that were hitherto playing in the Crypto market that has made the stocks market to boom in the last 3 months after Cybex, PCEX etc. collapsed!
But some ignorant boot lickers want to give the credit to a clueless govt .
Politics › Re: Festus Keyamo: Obi's Support Base Will Collapse If He Becomes Atiku’s Deputy by mikeapollo: 12:28pm On Aug 05, 2025
ejimatic:
How would it be for Obi who won two regions in 2033 be the deputy of Atiku who won just a region?

Tinubu won 3 regions
Atiku had more votes than Obi in 2023. Ultimately, it is the number of votes that matter, not how many regions/states you win.
Politics › Re: Festus Keyamo: Obi's Support Base Will Collapse If He Becomes Atiku’s Deputy by mikeapollo: 12:16pm On Aug 05, 2025
ricson11:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t78fEJyrQyU?si=ZuvGl2J1SQJjXdyc

Speaking live on Channels TV, Festus Keyamo stated that the three major demographics that gave Peter Obi six million votes in the 2023 election would withdraw their support if Obi agrees to become Atiku Abubakar’s deputy.

He emphasized that both the Christian bloc and the South East region would pull out once Atiku is the flag bearer.
Obi cannot win if he goes for the presidential ticket.. Let him take one step at a time.
His best bet is to get some heavyweight from the north who can give him huge votes to win.
The de-facto political leader in the north who can do that today is Atiku Abubakar. Atiku/Obi ticket will defat Tinubu hands down!
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 10:29am On Aug 05, 2025
SonofElElyonRet:
Grey rhyme nah.. ok make I collect 100%
"Jegede, please don't delay!" grin
You still did not get it?

All the earlier rhymes ended with ''ay''..... so why bring in ''ey''.?
Your score will still remain 90/100 until you improve grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 9:49am On Aug 05, 2025
SonofElElyonRet:
Another day,
Again we pray
It'll go Japaul's way
And in green it'll stay
Not to see hope's ray
Then it shatters like clay
Don't wanna wait till I turn grey! grin
©Son of El Elyon
day, pray, way, stay, ray, clay....... so why grEY?

Olodo rabata.!
But I give you 90/100 out of pity! grin
Manage that score
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 9:34am On Aug 05, 2025
faoogoke:
Last last NGX will delist Deap Capital. The signs are just to loud. Anyone entering is doing yahoo yahoo.
You are right, Deap Capital can be delisted. Infact, any, and every company listed on the NGX can be delisted. Even some profit-making entities like Dangote Flour, Ardova Petroleum (AP), Flour Mills, Seven Up etc have been delisted.
So loss making is not necessarily the yardstick or reason for delisting a company, unless the management proposes and shareholders agree in a resolution at AGM, sanctioned by SEC.
Everybody has the right to express an opinion on any matter or stocks, but we should know what is based on facts and not overstretch our imaginations or sentiments.
Stocks were not listed on NGX because of opinions on NSEMPA, so our opinions here are immaterial and inconsequential to the totality of what happens on the trading floor.

NOTE:
This is not investment advice. DYOR
Politics › Re: 20 Nigerians On Death Row In Indonesia Are From One South East State – Dabiri by mikeapollo: 9:07am On Aug 05, 2025
Angelfrost:
This is precisely what I said in that very thread...!

These nations should prosecute these criminals without dragging their nations of origin into their individual mess.


The entire nation shouldn't be dragged into international insults and ridicule due to the misdeeds and proclivities of a tiny section of the vast population...!
The nation should be bold to call out the people causing the problems internally
Politics › Re: 20 Nigerians On Death Row In Indonesia Are From One South East State – Dabiri by mikeapollo: 9:05am On Aug 05, 2025
Kewtt:
https://dailypost.ng/2025/08/04/20-nigerians-on-death-row-in-indonesia-are-from-one-south-east-state-dabiri-erewa/
However, there are some very good stories. And here’s the problem, it’s only the bad stories that trend. What about those thousands of Nigerians that are developing those countries? What about those thousands of Nigerians that if they leave some countries today, it will affect them, that those are the stories we celebrate.


This is part of the problem. Absolute nonsense. Nigerians DO NOT develop any country. They went there to hustle there because they those places as ''GRENER PASTURES'' where they can live and make money to feed themselves and family!
It is this silly sense of entitlement that emanates from the mentality that you are developing a foreign country that makes people to misbehave. Those countries have been existing before Nigerians discovered and trooped there enmasse. If the Nigerians want to leave, let them leave. No country will suffer because Nigerians left the place! NONSENSE!
Crime › Re: Man Cries Out After Flood Takes Over His House In Lagos (Photos/Video) by mikeapollo: 8:55am On Aug 05, 2025
Glimpsetv:
A Lagos resident has shared a heartbreaking video detailing the devastating impact of a recent flood in his area.

In the video, he says:
“Hello everybody, good morning. This is what I’m dealing with in my area… From August 3 to August 4, both the inside and outside of my house have been completely flooded. It’s like an ocean. Look—my three cars are submerged in water.”

The video has since gone viral, attracting numerous reactions across social media platforms.

Cc: Nlfpmod

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vs6k8sVnLeU?si=0-NlKSU7qIygRxdK
What is the meaning of ''my area'' if you did not mention the name of the place? How do we know it is true or false?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 4:02pm On Aug 04, 2025
sterlingD:
The result no bad but the cost of sales, general and administrative expense brought them down compared to 2024 and the other comprehensive income for the year net of tax for 2024 made the result of 2024 have the edge over the result of 2025

They need to work on the cost of sales and general and administrative expense.
They seem to have managed to reduce admin. expenses by 50% in Q1 and Q2 2025.
What remains is to achieve similar (or better) reduction in costs of sales and finance costs (after raising additional capital)
Business › Re: Unprecedented Windfall As Stock Investors Gain ₦25.7 Trillion In 7 Months by mikeapollo: 1:10pm On Aug 04, 2025
FreeStuffsNG:
“A painful reality of the equities market is its natural volatility. If macroeconomic conditions are inspiring and corporate fundamentals are strong, equities will remain profitable and liquid. No market sustains a rally indefinitely even in the best of time. Investors need to preserve their gains through sound risk management”.


The record breaking windfall came along with monetary policy and broader macroeconomic shifts which spurred increased domestic and foreign investor confidence.

Thank you President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. May God bless you and bless Nigeria for ever!
Stop giving credit to a clueless and failed govt that did nothing.
It is the collapse of crypto players e.g. Cybex that made a lot of funds to be rushed into the stock market in the last 3 months.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 9:33am On Aug 04, 2025
bastardson:
Thanks, eventually found it after I asked the question.

People are more interested in Oando.

What is your take on the result. The price has been stagnated for a while
Why Always Oando? grin grin (apologies to Mario Balotelli)
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo:
ProphetUtuocha:
So much noise on Oando, but what do we decipher from their recent data?

A fair value analysis based on Oando PLC’s unaudited H1 2025 financial results (for the six months ended 30 June 2025):

0-1Revenue was ₦1.72 trillion (~US $1.12 billion), down ~15% year‑on‑year, mainly due to softer trading volumes and lower realized prices  .

299-0Upstream production surged by ~63% YoY to ~37,012 boepd, supported by integration of NAOC assets, higher uptime, and revamped facilities  .

474-0Gross profit declined 28% to ₦59 billion; operating loss hit ₦158 billion despite net profit of ₦63 billion, boosted by a sizable tax credit and strong finance income (~₦159 billion finance income; ₦209 billion tax credit)  .

735-0Profit‑after‑tax stood at ₦63 billion, essentially flat YoY (~₦62.6 billion in H1 2024)  .

📊 Valuation & Fair Price Estimate

1. Earnings Power

H1 PAT ≈ ₦63 billion → Annualize to ~₦120 billion (assuming H2 performance rebounds).

If the full‑year 2025 profit reaches ₦150 billion (given upstream gains and turnaround from H2), and assuming 2 billion shares outstanding, EPS ≈ ₦75/share.

2. P/E Multiples & Comparables

Nigerian energy peer group typically trades between P/E 8–12×.

Applying P/E of 10→ fair value ≈ ₦750/share; at P/E 8→ ₦600/share; at P/E 12→ ₦900/share.


3. Asset‑Based / DCF Sketch

Upstream reserves ~983 MMboe → long‑term value, especially with expansion into Angola.

Capex guidance of $250–270 million for H2 and drilling; if production rises beyond 40k boepd and oil price stays strong, cash flow improves meaningfully.

Simplified discounted cash flow (very rough): if free cash flow stabilizes at ₦200 billion/year (~US $160 million) with WACC of 12%, a perpetuity value ≈ ₦1.67 trillion → per share fair value ~₦830 (assuming ~2 b shares).

🔍 Summary Fair Value Range

Method Estimated Value (₦/share)

P/E = 8× ~600
P/E = 10× ~750 (central estimate)
P/E = 12× ~900
Simplistic DCF ~830
Implied fair range **₦600–900 per share**

🚩 Key Risks & Considerations

AGGRESSIVE tax credits and finance income distorted H1 earnings; H2 may not repeat that boost.

Volatility in global oil prices, FX rates, and downstream trading margins could swing actual profits.

862-15Balance‑sheet concerns: equity had negative retained earnings at H1 (summed group Equity ≈ ₦−270 billion)  .

Capital restructuring and debt conversion plans are underway—these may dilute existing shareholders or alter capital structure.

✅ Bottom‑Line Estimate

If H2 execution picks up and trading improves, ₦700–800 per share seems a reasonable fair‑value midpoint today. A conservative stance using a modest P/E of 8 yields ₦600, while a more optimistic surprise or smoother H2 execution justifies nearer ₦900.
You have to re-run your analysis.
OANDO has 12.43 billion shares outstanding , not the 2 billion used in your calculations
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 10:26am On Aug 03, 2025
emmaodet:
AI? in Oil and gas? And you believe that? To reduce cost?
The Oando management is a very funny and crafty one.
Are you saying it is impossible for AI to be used in oil and gas?
Do you have an idea about all the possible uses of AI and very sure it can never be used in oil and gas operations?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 7:01pm On Aug 02, 2025
megawealth01:
You are dealing with a COWBOI so you should expect anything grin

Wale should help me drag OANDO further down so I can fill up my bags.
Are you still interested in loading Oando?
Are you not discouraged by the Q2 2025 results?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 6:53pm On Aug 02, 2025
megawealth01:
They scared people into selling off their holdings na before RAISING THE STAKE grin

Those who sold off at ridiculous prices can't buy back at times 2 of what they sold their MTN....

IT'S ALL A GAME 🎯
Lol . grin grin
Na wa oo
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 6:15pm On Aug 02, 2025
megawealth01:
I don't think so. Wale knows this game better

Las las Wale and his boys will buy una out with this game just like MTN did grin
Wow. grin grin
Do you mind clarifying what happened in MTN? I didn't follow that matter keenly.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 6:05pm On Aug 02, 2025
Raider76:
More like a confirmation though of what they have always been. This is serious manipulation of market sentiment. So the next trench will only come if the full year 2025 results are bad.
I think releasing the shares after a bad result would actually work against the share price as excessive supply would bring it down further.
Foreign Affairs › Re: Ghana's Minister Threating To Suspend Dstv's License If They Don't Reduce Price by mikeapollo: 9:11am On Aug 02, 2025
Ablesam171:
These Ghanaians sef.
Always talking about Nigeria, we live rent free in their minds.

Do they think the Naira and Cedis have the same value? There’s no way MultiChoice (DSTV and GOTV) would charge the same subscription fees in both countries.
If they want things to be equal, they should also tell car dealers, grocery stores, electronics sellers etc to match Nigerian prices.

Those people wey dey compare Nigeria to Ghana and other small countries wey dey West Africa (ECOWAS) neva travel go there before.

Yes, there are countries in Africa that are better than Nigeria but they're not in West Africa.
Our money and their money no be mate.
Nigeria mate no dey West Africa na.... Shey you dey waine ni!!!
This is how prople mislead some Nigerians. The minister mentioned about 6 different countries and their DSTv prices, including Botswana, Liberia, South Africa. But somebody is here deceiving Nigerians to believe that the minister only talked about Nigeria.
This is how we get things wrong and make wrong analysis and comments on issues.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 1:03am On Aug 02, 2025
GeeKudi:
From the press release by Oando following the H1 report:

"We are pleased to announce that the distribution process has now received all necessary regulatory approvals, including clearance from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). With these approvals secured, Oando confirms that the Tranche 1 distribution is expected to be completed on or before August 8, 2025."
My CSCS has been credited with shares from the redistribution Tranche 1
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 8:57pm On Aug 01, 2025
Redoil:
these are parts of the lies the cowboys want us to believe so they can steal every thing until price go up and never come down
Lol grin grin Oando wahala.
Everyone on the watch out.
All die be die. grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 8:51pm On Aug 01, 2025
GeeKudi:
From the press release by Oando following the H1 report:

"We are pleased to announce that the distribution process has now received all necessary regulatory approvals, including clearance from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). With these approvals secured, Oando confirms that the Tranche 1 distribution is expected to be completed on or before August 8, 2025."
Tbis is just damage control to prevent or avoid shareholders anger at the AGM.
What about Tranche 2 that became due on June 30?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 8:49pm On Aug 01, 2025
[quote author=Agbalowomeri post=136311321]They should have evolved by now otherwise the economy will leave them behind [/qkuote]

How do you want/expect them to evolve?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 7:11pm On Aug 01, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
You dey worry yasef. Wale and co dey chop una margin Lol
Lol grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 4:49pm On Aug 01, 2025
Raider76:
Is it ok to now finally say that the ENI acquisition by Oando has failed to affect its top and bottom lines? It is now 4 quarters since the acquisition.
May be, maybe not.
Until we get to see/know more details for the negative gross margin in Q2. If the reasons are recurring in nature, then it is worrisome. If one-off, then they may overcome it. The gross margins were positive in Q1 2025 and Q4 2024.
Also check the source(s) having negative impact on the bottom line .... e.g. Finance costs; the structure of the incoming fresh capital would determine if these would be largely reduced or increased going forward.

For me, the worst case scenario would be an acquisition by or merger with a major oil and gas player.
The equity-debt conversion for $300m (to be approved at the AGM) is probably for the loan from Mercuria, a global energy firm that is a like customer/partner to Oando (https://mercuria.com/.). Even the $1.5b they want to raise (in bonds/debentures/equity etc.) may still be coming from the same Mercuria or other foreign investors; so they may become major shareholders if the current directors fail to inject the required equity funds.

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