₦airaland Forum

DeRuggedProff:
Excellent — I’ve extracted the core financials from Oando Plc’s Q2 2025 report. Let’s execute a military‑grade forensic breakdown across your requested 13 fronts. This will be long and highly detailed.

🔎 Forensic Reconnaissance Report: Oando Plc Q2 2025

1. Income Statement (Tactical Revenue Analysis)
Revenue:
H1 2025: ₦1.72 trillion (↓15.3% YoY from ₦2.03 trillion).

Q2 2025 alone: ₦788.2bn vs ₦1.12tr Q2 2024 (↓29%).
→ Volume contraction or pricing decline; management notes suggest crude oil trading volumes fell due to lower offtake.

Gross Profit / Loss:
Q2 2025: ₦26.2bn gross loss vs ₦50.9bn profit last year.
H1 2025: ₦59.2bn profit, but margin down to 3.4% from 4.1%.
→ Negative Q2 gross margin suggests possible underlift/overlift or unhedged cost spikes.

Other Operating Income:

Massive swing: H1 2025 recorded ₦298bn loss vs ₦280bn gain in H1 2024.
→ This is the single largest driver of weaker operating results.


EBITDA / Operating Income:

H1 2025: ₦158.7bn operating loss vs ₦121.9bn profit in H1 2024.

Implies no scalability in the current cost base.


Finance Costs / Net Finance Result:
Finance costs ballooned to ₦194bn (vs ₦94bn prior).

Relief from ₦48bn reversal of default interest + ₦159bn finance income.

Net Finance result: ₦12.9bn gain vs ₦76bn loss prior.
→ Without these reversals, PBT would have been catastrophic.


Bottom Line:
PBT H1 2025: ₦145.7bn loss vs ₦45.5bn profit prior.

But after ₦209bn tax credit, Oando still posted ₦63.3bn PAT (flat YoY).
→ Profitability appears cosmetic, driven entirely by tax credits and one-offs.
---
2. Balance Sheet (Asset Armor Assessment)
Total Assets: ₦6.76trn (↑5.1% from Dec 2024).

Equity: Still negative at ₦305.9bn (though improved from ₦361bn deficit in Dec 2024).
→ Technically insolvent on book value.

Asset Quality:
PP&E flat at ₦3.16trn.

Intangibles stable (~₦1.03trn).

Receivables high: ₦582bn (↓22% YoY).

Restricted cash: ₦76bn vs ₦54bn prior.


Debt Profile:
Total borrowings: ₦3.19trn (up from ₦2.77trn).
Current borrowings: ₦1.12trn → significant short-term pressure.
Lease liabilities jumped from ₦8bn to ₦24bn short-term.


Retained Earnings: Negative ₦228bn, though improved from ₦292bn deficit.

Working Capital Stress:
Current liabilities ₦4.18trn vs Current assets ₦998bn → current ratio 0.24x.
Severe liquidity stress; reliant on rollovers.

3. Cash Flow Statement (True Liquidity Intelligence)
Operating Cash Flow:
H1 2025: ₦357bn cash burn vs ₦330bn burn in H1 2024.
→ Earnings not supported by cash.

Investing Cash Flow:
Net outflow ₦54bn (driven by ₦44bn CapEx).
Maintenance CapEx appears modest, but hedging costs ₦16bn.


Financing Cash Flow:
₦451bn inflow from borrowings; debt service ₦386bn.

Net financing inflow saved liquidity.

Cash at End: ₦194bn vs ₦155bn prior.

But includes ₦33bn overdraft.


Quality of Earnings: Weak. Cash profits diverge sharply from accounting profits.

4. Profitability Ratios (Return Combat Readiness)

ROE: Not meaningful; equity negative.

ROA: ~1.0% (PAT ₦63bn / Assets ₦6.76trn).

Margins:
Gross Margin: 3.4% (H1).
Net Margin: 3.7% (boosted by tax).


DuPont: ROE negative due to negative equity.

5. Liquidity Ratios (Short-Term Survival Scan)
Current Ratio: 0.24x (very weak).
Quick Ratio: ~0.23x (inventory negligible).

Cash Ratio: 0.05x.
→ Under any stress scenario, suppliers/creditors unlikely to be paid without fresh borrowing.

6. Solvency Ratios (Long-Term Risk Surveillance)
Debt/Equity: Not meaningful (equity negative).
Net Debt/EBITDA: EBITDA negative → solvency unsustainable.

Interest Coverage: Below 1x before extraordinary items.
→ Highly leveraged, dependent on restructurings & tax credits.

7. Efficiency Ratios (Operational Precision Audit)
Receivable Days: ~62 days.
Inventory Days: ~6 days → very lean.
Payable Days: Over 120 days → stretched supplier credit.
Cash Conversion Cycle: Negative → liquidity squeezed from payables reliance.

8. Valuation (Multifaceted Target Lock)
DCF:
Forecast free cash flows negative for 2025.
Assume WACC 20%, terminal growth 2%: DCF intrinsic value ~₦5/share (optimistic).
P/E Multiple:
Adjusted EPS ~₦0.15 annualized → At ₦13–15 market price, implied P/E ~85–100x.
Sector peers trade at 7–12x.
P/B: Negative book value; P/B not meaningful.
Fair Value Range: ₦4–6.
At market ~₦13–15, stock trades at a 200% premium to intrinsic.
No margin of safety.

9. Historical vs. Present Comparison (Time-Series Intel Mapping)
Revenue peaked >₦2trn in 2022–2024, now falling.
Margins under pressure since 2023.
Debt consistently increasing; equity negative since at least 2022.
Tax credits recurring → lifeline, not sustainable.

10. Peer Benchmarking (Battlefield Positioning)
Peers: Seplat, TotalEnergies, Eterna.
Seplat ROE ~15%, P/E ~8x; Oando: ROE N/A, P/E >80x.
Oando heavily indebted vs peers with healthier balance sheets.
Market pricing seems speculative rather than fundamental.

11. Notes to the Accounts (Codebreaker Review)
Tax Credits: ₦209bn → key to profitability; sustainability questionable.
Foreign Exchange Effects: ₦16bn OCI loss; ongoing Naira volatility risk.
Borrowing Guarantees: Historical note of US$32m obligations; legacy risks remain.

12. Management Commentary (Command Intent Evaluation)
Tone suggests optimism tied to upstream assets and trading.
No clear roadmap on debt restructuring.
Reliance on “non-cash” or “non-core” items to stabilize profit → signals deflection.

13. Red Flags & Manipulation Checks (Financial Forensics)
Beneish M-Score Indicators:
Revenue drop + inflated other income swings = risk.


Altman Z-Score: Likely <1.8 → high distress zone.

Creative Accounting Watch: Heavy reliance on reversals and tax credits.

Negative Equity: Oando effectively bankrupt on IFRS balance sheet.

🎯 Final Tactical Investment Recommendation

Verdict: SELL
Valuation detached from fundamentals (200% premium to fair value).

Equity remains negative → solvency risk.
Cash flows negative, profits artificial via tax credits.
High speculative sentiment risk — unsustainable without a major restructuring or oil price surge.

🚀 Forward-Looking Investor Conclusion

Strategic Position: Upstream portfolio remains valuable but heavily overleveraged.

Catalysts to Watch:

Debt restructuring or equity injection.
FX stability.
Oil price surge above $100/barrel.
Capital Allocation Fit: Not suitable for long-term capital appreciation portfolios unless you seek high-risk speculative exposure (<5% allocation).

⚠️ Would you like me to also run sensitivity models — e.g., Oando’s fair value under Brent $75, $90, and $100 scenarios? That would give us a battlefield map of upside/downside triggers.

You may run sensitivity analyses based on conservative 50%-75% success in their bid to raise N500bn and $1.5bn in fresh capital be year end 2025

chimex38:
Hmmm.. Cost of Crude purchases
Could it be part of shipping agreement cost which they signed; an MOU with NNPC and the Saudis much earlier in the year to ship crude as middle men to the Arabs preferred global destination?

I didn't follow up much on the MOU with NNCP/S. Arabia for crude sales, so cannot tell.

Revibe:
My Elders what's your take on Access Bank?

Access belongs to the top banks, described as FUGAZ, hence its price is ordinarily expected to be close to that of UBA, FBN.
Its current price is much lower and several investors on this platform generally believe it is undervalued, with potential to bounce back when they conclude their restructuring and multiple acquisitions. But it may take some time.

But do due your research, due diligence and make a decision as you desire.

Not a buy/sell advice.

Floky215:
Don't you understand when someone starts accusing you of using ghosts, djinns and voodoo to fight him?

The person would try to make sure his own shadow doesn't follow him around...talk more of another person..

You really understand how Israel dealt with the noisemakers Iran.
I laughed my head off when I read them accusing Israel of using ''strange spirits'', djinns, ghosts etc to fight them. They could not believe what happened to them in the 12 days!

GeeKudi:
Isn't it very obvious? How can you claim such humongous cost of sales totally wiping off your entire revenue without any explanation? Na only you dey drill oil for naija?

Those huge costs of sales may not be from the drilling costs (E&P segment) .
They are most likely costs of sales from the trading segment (i.e. the cost of crude purchases), which usually produces losses or very low margins for Oando.

The negative gross margin might have been caused by the combined effect of very little drilling activity (E&P) an higher losses from trading activity in Q2

megawealth01:
Oando Nigeria PLC

The finance costs (interest charges) on their loan debt is a big problem to Oando as it is eroding their profits.
The impending capital raise is very crucial to overcome this.

godwinngbede:
Israel is the only nation in the world whose map is not static, it keep increasing every 2 years.

Israel just got Its Map expanded by adding Judea, Samaria & Jordan Valley

Watch the historical moment Knesset redrew the map of Isreal


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX3oJ6CtYOM?si=ooWlF3nEudwW5Sjq

Do you know what you are talking about?
Which land was Judea, Samaria which Kings David, Solomon, Hezekiah etc ruled over long before now? In Nigeria or Pakistan?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/knesset-speaker-ohana-want-palestinian-161846353.html


During his speech, Ohana also pulled out a tablet showing a video from Iran's parliament in June during which members shouted "Death to Israel, Death to America."

Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana denounced plans to recognize a Palestinian state during his speech at the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) World Conference of Speakers of Parliament in Geneva on Wednesday.

“If you want a Palestinian state, build it in London or Paris,” Ohana told the participants, referring to recent statements by both British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron on their plans to recognize a Palestinian state in September.

Representatives from Iran, Yemen, and the Palestinian Authority left the hall in protest during Ohana’s speech. The representatives were seen exiting the hall directly under the podium as Ohana spoke.

While speaking, the Knesset speaker showed the participants a video on his tablet of Iran’s parliament members shouting, “Death to Israel, death to America,” during an Iranian parliament meeting in June after a law was passed to sever ties with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“This is not footage of an underground terror cell. It is the official parliament of the Islamic Republic of Iran – a full member of this forum – openly calling for the annihilation of two sovereign states,” Ohana explained.

He also denounced Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who had earlier held up a photo from The New York Times of a starving child in Gaza during his speech at the conference.

“The Iranian speaker presented a photo published on the cover of The New York Times. The only problem is that their claim is fake,” Ohana explained.

Israel had shown earlier on Wednesday that the photographed child was suffering from cerebral palsy. NYT has since amended its article to include that the child had a pre-existing health condition.

“Even The New York Times admitted this today. But Ghalibaf will seize every blood libel the fake news media hands him,” he told the audience.

“Shame on you both,” he added, referring to Ghalibaf and the report.

Ohana also called for the hostages’ return.

“As we speak, 50 of our brothers and sisters, innocent people, are being held hostage by Hamas. They are starved, they are tortured, they are afraid, they are alone, in the dark tunnels of Gaza,” he said.

“I implore you to stand for truth over propaganda, conscience over convenience, virtue over vogue. Stand on the right side of history – our side,” he said.

The IPU is an international organization of parliaments. It includes 181 member parliaments, including several from the Middle East.

This was the sixth World Conference of Parliament Speakers, taking place between Tuesday and Thursday.

The conference has taken place every five years since 2000.

Mccullum:
This same US deceiving the world on her support for two-states solutions over 30 years ago.

Trump now shifting by coming openly when it's obviously to him they can't manipulate the international community anymore.

Israel is a proxy State of America in the Middle East, using for spying and causing chaos in the region. Many world leaders have seen their real agenda.

Which are ethnic cleansing, land grabbing, starving the Palestinians populace and using Israel as a pistol placing on the heads of all countries seeing as potential threats to US hegemony within the middle east.

My logical conclusion is that US can cook for all countries and they'll eat successfully. But when the whole world cooks for her, US cannot eat it, if she dare eating it, she won't be able to finish it.

You are okay with Hamas attacking and killing 1,200 and taking 250 Israelis as hostages, but Israel should not have the right to react or respond! Israel has not said they want to wipe off any country from the surface of the earth.
Your Arab countries and Iran, Palestine have refused to recognise the right of Israel to exist and have threatened to wipe them off the surface of the earth. But you don't see them as the people causing problem, but Israel that is fighting to defend itself in the middle east is your problem.

PHYTECH:
West Bank at peace, with settler attacks??

Who are the so called ''settlers'' in Judea, Samaria, Beersheba, Jerusalem, Jericho etc?

TruthU87:
Doesn't matter, a two-state solution is the best option 'for now'

Make una dey deceive yourself!
You want Judea, Samaria, Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Beersheba etc and all the land of Jacob, Joseph, Isaac, Elijah, David, Solomon, Rebecca, Esther etc. to be taken from the Jews who onw them and be given to Arabs

brain54:
Do you know they targeted and deported Nigerians first...

In the '70s during the Cocoa era because Nigerians were dominating the Cocoa market and had plenty of investment in their economy then before shagari sent undocumented immigrants( not Ghanians specifically) out in the '80s.

But they keep grudges and never forget and too competitive!

Stop twisting what happened.
Ghana deported aliens in 1969. It affected Nigerians more because they were the majority of foreigners living in Ghana at the time
Nigeria also deported aliens in 1982. It affect Ghanaians more because they were the majority of foreigners living in Nigeria at the time.

But you are twisting the story to give the impression that Ghana deliberately targeted Nigerians, but Nigeria did not target Ghanaians. That is a fallacy

brain54:
This is simply a case of stereotyping a group of people...
They are more law abiding and orderly Nigerians in Ghana than those who are not.

Most of the allegations against Nigerians are baseless and without prove.

If any Nigerian is caught engaging in illegal activities or actions they should be made to face the lawful consequences or repatriated.

This is xenophobia and hatred against Nigerians!

You just sit down and type rubbish because you have phone/pc with data.
Do you know how many Nigerians have been caught in armed robbery, kidnap and ritual killings in Ghana? Just google it. The proof is on the internet.
Even if it is just 10 Nigerians that are causing big problems in their country, they have the right to protest so that every Nigerian would call the people responsible to order and stop the nonsense in their country.
If everybody hates you, then you are the problem. The same thing in South Africa, India, UAE, Qatar, Indonesia, Malaysia Thailand, Kenya, Italy. etc,. Are the so called Nigerians the only Africans in the world?
Now, they have started cultism in Italy and South Africa, and armed robbery in UAE and Qatar. When they start attacking and deporting them, you say everybody hates Nigerians. Nonsense

Bodexman:
Is it the eze/kingship stuff that brought all these, or there's more to it

There have been other problems like armed robbery, kidnapping, ritual killings etc. involving a lot of Nigerians but this Igbo king nonsense talk just made them angry and brought up everything once again

Angelfrost:
Lol... A nation or house divided against itself will fall badly.

There are 3 times more bad eggs in America than Nigeria can ever dream of... Don't bother arguing this fact!


Yet, insult one America anywhere on Earth, and watch the entire nation rally against you!


You guys think this Igbo Vs Yoruba crap y'all do online will help your nation universally... I just dey laugh una.

Let's keep fanning this ember of disunity and division... Yet we keep wondering why the nation can't make progress.

It is better you first focus on people from within who go out to commit crime or lawless acts, instead of standing in unity that does not help us.
If your relative is known and confirmed criminal or armed robber disturbing the neighborhood, it is better you focus attention on warning him to stop the crime so everyone can be free, instead of standing in unity with him, because that would destroy all of you as people would think all of you are the same criminals.

brain54:
This is coming a bit late...


But I guess it's better late than never.

Nigerians should stand with one voice to criticize this move by the Ghanians.

Some see it as an attack against a certain region or part of Nigeria. But it's not.

This is a case of calling a dog a bad name in so as to hang it.

United we must stand.


"Me against my brother, me and my brother against my cousin, me, my brother, and my cousin against the world".

-Arab saying!

We cannot stand united in being lawless and disrespecting our hosts when we travel outside of Nigeria.
Stop the lawless and criminal acts and everyone will enjoy peace and respect everywhere in the world.
Don't call me to stand in unity with anyone when some people are doing the wrong things which cause problems and trouble to others!

Thankfully, some Ghanaians also understand the peculiar issue of Nigeria and the source of their concerns.

Adedehinboadebs:
if isreal stops the occupation and land grab, they won’t face attack and if it continues the land grab, they will forever live in fear. Isreal aim is to conquer lots of land from Middle East countries, the more it continues pursuing that goals, it will continue facing attacks

If Israel should stop occupation of which land? Is it the land of Judea, Samaria, Bethlehem, Jerusalem, Beersheba etc? Or which other land are you saying Israel should stop the occupation?

zinaunreal:
It never stated in October 7th why are you so myopic? Is that how you learn in school? Nna men see human being o 😆

Okay, tell us when it started.
You, the person that has learnt very well in school should tell us.

Mubieey:
US is the problem here, they don't want the genocide to end, genocidal losers

Was it the US that attacked Israel on October 7 and is still keeping Israeli hostages?
I don't understand how some of you type what you type.

nlfpmod:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DMxZFo2NQYI/?img_index=2&igsh=MTE5YTNmM2tta3E3ZA==

Remarrying in less than 6 months after divorcing Annie just shows that Tuface had actually wanted to divorce her long before now, but was just bidding his time. Unfortunately, Annie herself was not smart and accommodating enough to manage the marriage, so she lost virtually everybody that could make the marriage work, including Tuface's siblings.

Kemetian:
And who told you that “kings like David, Solomon, Hezekiah” were white Europeans from Poland, Austria, Ukraine and Russia, and Germany calling themselves “Jews”?

Do you even know the Ancient Hebrews were Black Africans like you?

How will you know?

The Jews can travel to anywhere in the world that welcome them, give birth and still return to their ancestral homeland. They are not fools or idiots like those who would forget their history, lineage and ancestry when they travel. They still speak the Hebrew language and practice the culture and religion of their forefathers.
No one can claim and talk about the Jews more than the Jews. Everybody Go talk about your own tribe and leave the Jews alone.

If the descendants of David, Solomon, Hezekiah etc travelled to Europe hundreds of years ago and married Europeans, their kids and grandchildren can be light or white in colour. It does not stop them from knowing their ancestry

TruthU87:
You think the West Bank is at peace under Israeli control? It seems you’ve been living under a rock. Just search 'West Bank' on Google and see the atrocities Israel has committed and still continues to commit there. As I said, this war was never about Hamas; it’s about stealing Palestinian land.

What was the original name of the land in the so called ''West Bank''?
Why are they calling the place an English name of ''West Bank''? Is English the indigenous language of the people that were living there?
So mention the original names of the land before it was changed to ''West Bank'' then I can know if you understand what is happening.

When did Judea, Samaria, Bethlehem, Jerusalem, Beersheba etc. that were ruled over by Kings like David, Solomon, Hezekiah, Modekiah, the Prophets, and have the graves/tombs of Joseph, Isaac, Esther, Rebecca, Jacob etc. now become the land owned by some Arabs called ''Palestine'' or ''Palestinians''.
Are you people on weed?

RodgersAkpafu:
What rubbish are you saying fgs

It is obvious you don't have anything meaningful to say.

HydraFeeds:
Which land are you talking about ? They have their own territory moreover even if you want to argue "land of Israel" ,Israel didn't have any land but stolen lands in the Bible.

Who did Israel steal land from in the Bible? Let those people go and claim their land from Israel.
Israel did not steal any land from those Arabs that are now calling themselves ''Palestine'' or ''Palestinians''

MeaslesMumpsRub:
West Bank, Golan Height and Gaza have long been under siege

What was the original name of the land in the so called ''West Bank''?
Why are they calling the place an English name of ''West Bank''? Is English the indigenous language of the people that were living there?
So mention the original names of the land before it was changed to ''West Bank''

Dogalmighty17:
Why can't Palestine have their own state? Why was land seized from Palestine and given to Israel? Israel as a country, is a fraud and should not have been created. For thousands of years, no single Jew was in that land. Then overnight, some people turn up claiming that the land of Palestine belongs to them.

The Balfour declaration is the most injurious harm ever done to a people. Israel exists on stolen land. Land that belongs to the Palestinian people. It is a good thing that countries across the west are beginning to call for a Palestinian state. The people of Palestine deserve to have a country of their own.

The Jews have created too many problems in this world. Enough with them.

Can you mention the land that Israel stole or seized from Palestine" I want to see if you understand what you are talking about

HydraFeeds:
Israel has a state but doesn't want others to have a state .

It's like a rich man that doesn't want others to be rich because his influence on others will be reduced .

PS: we know that US is being held ransom by the Jews .

Let others go and have their state on their LAND! Not on the land of Israel

TruthU87:
Something like October 7 was going to happen regardless.

I would like you to answer this simple question honestly: If someone from Congo came to your home and claimed that their ancestors settled there 2,000 years ago, asserting that they have the right to live in your house, and when you confronted them, they responded with violence and killed your entire family—how would you react?

If it is true and they have documented, historical proof that the house/land belongs to them, we would agree and look for another place to settle. The only thing we would ask for is compensation to enable us relocate and settle. It does not matter whether they came from Afghanistan or Guatemala. The truth is the truth.
Only a thief, criminal would want to hold on to something that does not belong to them, and be fighting over it.
If you know that the land actually belongs to them, then why do you refer to history only from 1948?

Softmirror:
Instead the US should just absorb Israel into the United States and leave the Arabs to themselves.

So you want Israel and Jews to abandon their ancient land of Judea, Samaria, Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Beersheba etc so that the Arabs can take over their land to appease Arabs?
This is part of the nonsense!

otokx:
Nothing to do with Wema but all to do with its backward forward backward movement.

Access is undergoing restructuring and international acquisitions which would bloat the OS, hence it is better and safer to view it as long term investment for now, until they conclude everything. UBA and FBN had similar experiences.

otokx:
Access annoys me to no end.

Access annoys you because ''small girl'' like Wema dey shake yansh?
Where were you when Wema was almost dead and Access was balling and flexing among the FUGAZ big guys?

DiamondsAreFore:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/07/29/arab-world-tells-hamas-lay-down-arms-end-rule-gaza/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_youtube_youtube-community

There may be a Palestinian state, but NOT over the land of Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem, Bethlehem etc.. These places are Jewish land and they belong to Israel. Period!