₦airaland Forum

megawealth01:
Which ngx company will benefit from this?

Remember ...''we have already met or revenue target for the year in August, no more borrowing.... '' bla bla bla.
Only for us to hear about huge budget deficits due to revenue shortfalls and huge continued borrowings later..

Believe whoever and whatever you want to believe oooo.
I dont want any trouble or questioning from Agba and co.
''You and I'' must believe and agree that everything they say is ''true''. That is how to live in peace in Nigeria and NSEMPA today...

Agbalowomeri:
That one na wickedness o
You wan NGX to deal with him

megawealth01:
You mean OANDO will get to #1k?

Three digit is 100+.
Zero (0) is also a digit oooo

Panadee:
That cock fit die for babalawo or dibia shrine oo!
Bird flu no dey show mercy

Now, you too, you have started yabbing me like Agba? Is that good?
I leave you all in the hands of NGX!

megawealth01:
I didn't use PATIENT FUNDS for OANDO

Wow!
In truth, I can only advise you use patience funds for Oando.

megawealth01:
What is giving me concern is that my CAPITAL now crazily in OANDO as I study the political calculations in NAIJA

I suggest you apply your own time-tested principle and advice: patient funds.
You see, I am cock sure that Oando will hit three digits soon, it is just a matter of time.

megawealth01:
Na OANDO be my main concern for this market now... I'm heavily loaded there

Welcome bro!
But you have to drop something, so you can to be fully baptized as an Oandoite!
With baptism the assurance of mega mega mega loot is assured in due course.....this is also anointed message as revealed by our prophet and it shall come to pass.

ositadima1:
Revenue hit ₦1.066 trillion, up 53% year-on-year. Normalized EBIT came to ₦387.9 billion at a 36.4% margin, EBITDA was ₦422.7 billion (39.6% margin), and profit after tax was ₦273.1 billion. The company is sitting on ₦388 billion in cash against only ₦166 billion in borrowings, a net cash position of ₦222 billion, and has proposed a ₦6/share dividend, five times last year's payout. These are not the numbers of a struggling cement company.

To value WAPCO properly I used a Damodaran-aligned DCF, which means starting from what the business actually earns operationally rather than headline profit. After stripping out non-recurring other income, the PPE impairment reversal, and the ₦30.2 billion finance income earned on cash deposits (which I account for separately), normalized NOPAT, net operating profit after the 33.6% effective tax rate, comes to ₦257.5 billion. The next step is invested capital. Lafarge Africa runs with structurally negative working capital of ₦103 billion, meaning customers pay before the company settles its suppliers. Combined with PPE of ₦448.6 billion, total invested capital is ₦347.1 billion. Dividing NOPAT by invested capital gives a Return on Invested Capital of 74.2%, which was 75.1% in 2024. For context, most global cement companies operate at 10–20% ROIC. Every naira reinvested in this business creates significant value.

For the discount rate, I used a WACC of 25.6%, built from a risk-free rate of 18.5% (Nigerian T-Bill yield), Nigeria's equity risk premium of 10.5% (Damodaran), and an unlevered cement sector beta of 0.72. The company's near-zero leverage keeps WACC close to the cost of equity. This is a high discount rate but it reflects the Nigerian macro reality, not a criticism of the business.

Free cash flow to the firm in 2025 was ₦88.1 billion on a reported basis, suppressed by a ₦129.6 billion working capital absorption as rapid revenue growth caused inventories and receivables to balloon. Normalized for a more sustainable working capital trajectory, FCFF is approximately ₦187.8 billion or ₦11.65 per share. Running a three-phase DCF on conservative assumptions, revenue growing at 20–25% decaying to 5% terminal growth, EBIT margins compressing gradually from 37% to 30%, produced an initial intrinsic value of approximately ₦123.5 per share (Base Case). Against the current market price of ₦210, that initial model flagged the stock as roughly 41% overvalued.

However, two factors I subsequently incorporated change the picture materially. The first is the near-complete 3.5 million tonne capacity expansion. Against current installed capacity of ~10.5mt, this is a 33% increase in one move. At a conservative 60% utilisation in year one, that's 2.1mt of incremental volume adding approximately ₦210 billion in revenue, rising to ₦300 billion annually at 80% utilisation from year two. This alone shifts 2026 revenue growth from a modelled 20% to approximately 38%. The second factor is Huaxin Building Materials, the new 83.81% Chinese owner who completed their acquisition from Holcim in 2025. Huaxin runs domestic operations at EBITDA margins of 35–45% and their operational playbook, clinker optimization, fuel switching, procurement centralization, conservatively adds 2–3 percentage points of EBIT margin over the next two to three years. On ₦1.5 trillion of 2027 revenue, 2pp of margin improvement alone is ₦30 billion of additional annual NOPAT.

Incorporating both factors into the revised model, the bear case (capacity delayed, margins revert to 30%) gives ₦105–₦120 per share. The base case (capacity online H1 2026, margins holding at 37–40%, Huaxin delivering modest efficiency gains) gives ₦185–₦210 per share. The bull case (full ramp, Huaxin pushes margins toward 42%) gives ₦260–₦310 per share. At ₦210, WAPCO is sitting at the top of the base case and the entry point of the bull case, a completely different conclusion from the initial overvaluation call.

The honest assessment is this: the business is genuinely exceptional, ₦210 is a fair price for it, and the upside to ₦260–₦310 is credible without heroic assumptions. But three risks deserve monitoring. The ₦96.6 billion dividend proposal raises the question of whether Huaxin intends to grow the business or extract cash, if it's the latter, the growth thesis weakens. Naira depreciation remains a structural risk given USD-linked input costs in energy and clinker. And Dangote and BUA will not ignore a 3.5mt capacity addition from a competitor without a pricing response. The first real read on how this plays out will be Q1 2026 results, specifically utilization rates on the new line. If that comes in at or above 60%, the bull case becomes the base case and ₦210 will look cheap in hindsight.

Damodaran, the doyen of Valuation.

Stockpromoter:
The market generally is looking up.
Japaulgold full bid is not sustainable.
They will use this opportunity to drop more and still push down to accumulation level.

Sell into their strength and wait for their accumulations.

The market generally looking up could mean that the bear in the last few days was mostly caused by the NGX alert/warning due to the Zichis issue.

And there is no single stock listed on NGX that can have a sustainable full bid, so your reference to only Japaul is purely mischief.

megawealth01:
Central Bank Stopped Naira From Appreciating To ₦1000/$ – Shetttima

https://www.channelstv.com/2026/02/24/video-why-naira-did-not-appreciate-to-%e2%82%a61000-shettima/

Some people would still praise the govt for this.

megawealth01:
💯

My only fear in JAPAUL is jegede

You seem to have fear for CEOs of some companies listed in NGX.
I was thinking it is only Wale

seyenko:
A stable currency is better than one with deep market fluctuations; the fluctuations will cause price speculation and then hoarding of the currency, which can cause volatility in the short term.
So the naira will be allowed to appreciate gradually over the coming months or years to a very stable and manageable rate of exchange.

So why did govt not let the naira be "stable" at N500:$? So it was good to depreciate the naira in one full swoop from N500 to N1,600:$. But it is now a bad thing to allow the naira appreciate to N1,000:$?
Incredible how gulllible people are to believe all lies from govt
Some people can defend anything and swallow shit from this govt.

The truth is the govt devalued the naira so that they can get more revenue from exports of crude oil. And the revenue is still being looted and squandered with nothing tangible to show!

Some people seem to hype, promote any stocks they have and then try to write-off or de-market other stocks. I don't understand

handsomebolanle:
lol. Sir, just watch as another news will come out. That’s the game Ellah is playing.

Someone said Ellah has a new strategic investor/partner, that's why they rejected the PO funds.
Gaining 3.8% today, in spite of the PO saga, may be indicative of some resilience or news or development in the offing.

GeeKudi:
If an illiterate ask these two questions, then you simply sit them down and tutor them. But coming from a suppossedly lettered fellow, you just ignore because you can see through their veiled curiosity.
You know about the removal of fuel subsidy and the elimination of the arbitrage on the exchange rate by floating the naira, two important policies Nigerians were unanimous about in rescuing the economy and you want someone to start answering these two mischievious questions you are asking?
If you critique like a politician in opposition (they largely suspend their brains while doing so because they must not agree with govt), you are simply begging people to treat you like them.

I don't know when Nigerians were unanimous that removal of fuel subsidy and floating the naira exchange rate would rescue [b] the economy.
Where did you or the govt conduct the opinion polls, census or referendum to arrive at such unanimity? I don't fall for cheap govt lies and silly propaganda!
The people in govt today criticized previous govts when they attempted to remove fuel subsidy and the naira exchange rate weakened against major currencies. True or false?
Why do you guys now expect praises for this govt for the same things they criticized previous govts for? Simple question.!
It is just strange. Can't you take what you gave?
They have to acknowledge that they were wrong in criticizing previous govts first, before people would stop criticizing them for the same actions or policies.

GeeKudi:
The question he asked you is what makes you think any opinion that does not align with yours is coming from a place of tribal, religious etc sentiments (those adjectives you used) but yours are heaven inspired?

I asked 2 questions which none of you could answer on behalf of your perfect, blameless, govt.
After saying I was playing an ostrich without answering my questions, you now want me answer your questions?
Please answer my original questions first, or you face front:
1. Was N1,200:$1 what the govt promised Nigerians?
2. Was N1,200:$1 what the govt inherited?

I only said that I refuse to be a hypocrite and a bigot. I did not accuse or call anyone to be so

Agbalowomeri:
And why do you think the position you hold does not qualify for these adjectives?

It's fine, you can call me all the adjectives because your darling govt is faultless, perfect and cannot be critiqued.
Apparently, you are not affected like us the masses. You are still collecting from everybody (your name says it all).
God dey.

Agbalowomeri:
Nobody should argue with you because you have been playing the Ostrich since the beginning of this administration

I only asked some questions, because I am an ''Ostrich'' and don't know anything! I agree.
Those who are not playing the ''Ostrich and know better should enlighten us.
I refuse to be a hypocrite and play double-standards because of ethnic, religious or partisan bigotry: the same criteria, yardstick that people used to assess and judge OBJ, Jonathan, Buhari will be used to assess/judge Tinubu too. Simple!

I am not a fan of any of the aspirants or parties

Oasisblue:
This is a ridiculous claim. We all knew the value of the Nairato USD under Buhari was not real. We were spending billions and even borrowing to sustain this artificial Naira exchange rate. Worse still, we operated an obnoxious dual exchange rate system with a wide gulf between official and black market rates that left room for arbitrage and made Emefiele a king that dispensed hard currency based on affiliations. Now all that ahs ended. yes, we are still occassionally spending to maintain stability as it is a managed float, but the bulk of the value is now sustained by market forces. May we not return to the days of Airlines boycotting Nigeria because they couldnt repartriate their eranings.

I only asked 2 questions and here you are, already in a frenzy, struggling with excuses and baseless assertions.
Is the govt still borrowing or not, and what are the results to show for the huge borrowings?
Who did Emefiele dispense hard currency to, and Cardoso is not dispensing to today? Mention their names.

My questions still stand:
1. Was N1,200:$ what the govt promised Nigerians?
2. Was N1,200:$ what the govt inherited?

The exchange rate is still N1350 by the way

Panadee:
I'll tell the President when next I see him. We need you in the City Men's Movement.

Tell him guys are suffering and tired!
Any African calling himself ''City Boy'' has lost his bearing or is deceiving himself.
We all came from the village, but I am not a member of the ''Village Boy'' politics either

Panadee:
I no too gbadu this government but my post was meant to corroborate Awesome J's theory.
Once you realize that "All governments are run by liars and nothing they say should be believed" (I.F. Stone), you wouldn't worry much about electoral campaign promises

My post was not directed at you. It was directed at the president boasting or excitement about N1,200:$

H

Panadee:
https://dailypost.ng/2026/02/24/nigerian-naira-will-appreciate-to-n1000-per-dollar-in-coming-weeks-tinubu/

Was N1,200:$ what he promised Nigerians when he was campaigning to become president? Or was N1,200:$ what he inherited?. Glorification of failure and mediocrity

fergie001:
He was appointed Principal Staff Officer to now ex-IGP Kayode Egbetokun in June 2023 and subsequently Rivers State Commissioner of Police in November 2023 and later FCT Police Commissioner on 7th October, 2024.

He was decorated Assistant Inspector-General of Police (AIG) by Kayode Egbetokun on 25th March 2025. On 6th February 2026, he was deployed to head the Force Criminal Investigation Department (FCID) Annex, Alagbon Close, Ikoyi, Lagos.

Culled from:
@fergie001

So he is former ADC to TInubu!
Incredible cronyism!

nosa2:
Una wan really bankrupt the company sha

But really, if they are truly cash-strapped, then they should be desperate for the IPO money. Such refund by them could mean they have a reliable alternative unless by regulatory compulsion

Redoil:
ellah lake have gotten serious investors hence they decide to return the money back to IPO People. now who is fooling who

If this is the case, then they should at least compensate investors by paying some interest on the rejected funds, no matter how little.
This would actually show that the management has some integrity.

nlfpmod:
https://punchng.com/full-list-lagos-releases-new-brt-fares-after-13-increase/

Shameless govt!
Ikeja to Iyana Ipaja sometimes may not take you 20 minutes when the road is free....and govt is charging N440. So the private commercial buses should charge N500 or what?

yarimo:
Humans shouldn't be taken RUFAI oseni serious, oseni that supposed to be in the forest doing documentary on animals

But Rufai Oseni did not forge his education certificates. He attended schools in Nigeria and has classmates.
And he has not carried drugs before in his life!

PETERiCHY:
Before ACCESSNK will finally MOVE above #30
WATCHOUT for a very SHARP DROP to circa #20 in order to SHAKE-OUT WEAK HANDS.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

You eh!
Na your way

SonofElElyonRet:
Which penny stocks have the greatest likelihood of huge capital appreciation right now.. ?
Loco's pitch I think I already know... ROLYALEX
Others are free to give their opinion

Insurance stocks in the range (N1-N2) and Japaul.
May2026 seems far away, but once Japaul announces commencement of gold processing, there will be another rally.

2026 Q1 is around the corner....Access Bank will not stay at N20+ for long. It should be around N40

deathwing:
Ellahlakes, once they announce something

Insurance stocks (N1-N2) and Japaul.
May2026 seems far away, but once Japaul announces commencement of gold processing, there will be another rally.

2026 Q1 is around the corner....Access Bank will not stay at N20+ for long. It should be around N40

CyynthiaKiss:
Who started the phrase “Nigeria is a Giant of Africa” ?.

He/She deserves a bed in a psychiatric hospital.

Nothing destroys an image of a Nation more than Islamic terrorism, this is why we are calling for the total ban on sharia law in Nigeria..

Nigerian image started getting destroyed since 2009 when the fruit of sharia started manifesting.. Now look at where we are today..

Generally, I agree with your opinion but the real thing destroying our image is lawlessness, indciscipline, bad attitude, corruption, criminal activities, like drug pushing, armed robberies, kidnappings etc. even in foreign countries abroad.
Then followed by religious terrorism.

nosa2:
Na Obesere

Correct guy.
Awon aroma styleeee!