raumdeuter:
POL 501 Tinubu masterclass (Sparsky vs Fisher 1972)
To followers of Chess, The game between Sparsky and Fisher in 1972 was dubbed the game of the century

I will use some Chess analogies to describe this historic victory of Asiwaju Tinubu

The Tinubu masterclass


Opening move decided to go a conservative Sicilian opening

In 1999 he won Lagos State governor

In 2003 when OBJ deceived all SW governors and the AD to not float their candidate that they should support him and in turn he will ensure they retain their seat, Tinubu disagreed with AD leaders on that arrangement. tsunami swept all AD governors only Tinubu survived

Queens gambit declined

He left AD, formed his own party AC and he was the only governor
By 2007 to grow the party he reached out to Oshiomole offered him the AC ticket in Edo vs Prof Osunbor. Oshiomole lost
Atiku and OBJ got into a fight a major fight, Atiku was in charge of PDM he was the strongest Northern politician and as the heir to Yar Adua, OBJ used YarAdua younger brother Umaru to break Atikus hold on PDM
Tinubu saw an opportunity to woo a powerful politician and get on his good side, he gave Atiku a platform to contest the 2007 election obviously Atiku had no path to win. He made Ben Obi Atikus vice. They lost but Tinubus profile started rising
Short side castling

He sponsored candidates in AC all over Nigeria. He brought many politicians treated badly and denied a ticket into his fold e.g Ngige Akume
He brought Fashola a technocrat as governor but didn't hand over the political keys to him
Fasholas performance became the standard for ACN to campaign and win many hearts across the nation
Knight advance

Below is the critical part of the game which would have effect in the future

The criminal elections of 2007 conducted by Obasanjo which was reputed to be the worst election in Nigerian history handed Tinubu a huge opportunity
He found an ally in Justice Salami of the appeal court who was instrumental in restoring the Oshiomole and Fayemi and Aregbesola into power
AC grew into 4 states.
Open file Bishop

Mimiko of Labour Party who was denied the ticket was also in tribunal vs Agagu. Tinubu approached him to provide logistic support with belief that Mimiko will decamp into ACN. Mimiko won but declined to join ACN

By 2011 Tinubu spread beyond the SW approached strong politicians who were denied a ticket or chased out of strong parties but knew he couldn't take on the FG alone at this time. He was the 3rd force in 2011

Mid game starts with slight positional disadvantage

Buhari controlled all Northern states with his new CPC, Jonathan and PDP controlled most SE NC and SS states
CPC and PDP were stalemate here comes tie breaker Tinubu.
Buhari in his idealistic thinking felt he could do by picking Bakare a Pastor with zero structures. He didn't agree to Tinubus terms.
GEJ saw the opportunity approached Tinubu who tactically floated a dummy Ribadu and Fola Adeola(2 moslems who had zero political structures and were barely politicians) he knew weren't going anywhere. Tinubu stepped down all ACN machinery in the SW and allowed the PDP a free ride.
Now he has become a major power broker who tactically made Jonathan president without appearing to.
Knight fork

After winning in 2011, Jonathan started some aggressive moves to break Tinubu so he won't have to beg everytime. One of such moves was to make a SW Mulikat Adeola Speaker, Jonathan thinking was to raise a powerful SW politician that will be an alternative to Tinubu.
Tinubu knew this was an act of aggression on their gentleman handshake and he mobilized the ACN reps to reject Mulikat and support Tambuwal,
Counterplay sacrificed pawn to gain positional advantage

Buhari lost 2011 again and started crying on TV and was hopeless. As a man of strategy Tinubu knew Buhari was at his low and vulnerable point, he approached Buhari this time Bubu was more than willing
Tinubu started the cleanup of Buhari's image from a clueless out of touch military religious extremist guy to this misunderstood charming, introvert, gap toothed, strong man that Nigeria needed at this critical time to get rid of corruption and PDP indiscipline
This chess player goes into deep analysis and thinking

Thus APC was birthed with the plan to use Buhari's popularity with Tinubu's money and skilled politicking to push Buhari into power but this time Tinubu was to pick Buhari's vice.
APC also won over Atiku after he lost out in PDP and breakaway PDP governors. Atiku came into the convention ground hoping to buy the ticket as usual
Buhari has never done any real competitive primary in a party everyone didn't worship him. Primary ground, Buhari was stunned about how Atiku was about to steal the ticket right there with money . Until Tinubu matched Atiku dollar for dollar and Buhari won the ticket
Middle game management used knight to fend off offensive

This is where the game starts getting interesting..
Now the deal was for Tinubu ACN to provide the Vice.
Tinubu knew he was interested in succeeding Buhari. And giving a strong vice would build up the Vice politically over 8yrs and might build enough goodwill to succeed Buhari
This was Tinubu's biggest masterstroke. He gave Buhari an Osinbajo who was smart but has the political clout of a 13yr old girl. Osinbajo was a very safe choice, he was not popular nor charismatic enough to gather the clout to state Jagaban in the face
There were other options like Fashola and Fayemi but they were risky and could get ambitious and endear themselves to people
Buhari asked Tinubu for 3 choices, Tinubu returned with one choice an unknown Yemi Osinbajo who will complete 8yrs and have less to nothing in political power to challenge for the seat
Queen advance

Buhari won election and Tinubu is in a good position Nationally acknowledged as the brain behind the success, thus issues started cropping up, fissures grew in the hurriedly assembled APC. Saraki wanted more than he was offered and broke the party, Buharis packaging has now begun to fall off, the makeup was beginning to melt and the man behind the mascara was beginning to show and its not pretty, Tinubu was schemed out by Buharis CPC friends including Abba Kyari and ElRufai, Things were not going to plan
Should he pull out of the APC, blurt out or maintain status quo and reach out to enemies
The Queen beat a tactical retreat

Throughout Buharis regime, many party internal issues came up, Buhari stayed aloof, Osinbajo stayed on the fence but Tinubu dove head on into the murky waters, aggressively supporting his men, He got bruised in many places like Ekiti, Ondo, Edo, Kano, Oyo but he stuck to his men and was even rumored to be schemed out
Officer exchange, Sac Bishop for Knight

Comes 2022, Tinubu has broken into the ranks of governors in his party and showing loyalty to them in times of trials won him a lot of die hard loyalists like Oshiomole and Ganduje who will lay their lives for him
By now Tinubu had taken control of all the APC structures and wanted the party to go for a direct primary, Some felt there was no way they could match the network of Tinubu in a direct primary and pushed for indirect where only chosen delegates voted
Tinubu called upon his network of Governors and allies when Buhari wanted to anoint Lawan, they stood up and insisted it goes to the South. He won the primary
Rook to center, End game starts with significant positional advantage

Opposition started panicking, the were split into multiple factions Obi, Kwankwanso G5 and Atiku. Tinubu though weakened by many of the policies under Buhari including Cash swap, fuel scarcity, general insecurity, failing health, etc. His generals stood behind him like Allied forces stood behind General Eisenhower in the battle of Normandy in the final offensive against Nazi Germany. When the boats were rocking his Northern governors came out forcefully, He then found an invaluable ally in the G5 and Wike who was aggrieved from PDP and swore to neutralize Atiku everywhere. Late hour Wike declared for Tinubu, neutralizing an important state for Obi and Atiku
Rook moves to the 7th rank

Elections are conducted Tinubu leading and appears ready to make his checkmate move on May 29 when he is expected to be sworn in as Commander in Chief

In all my years of following politics, never have I stumbled on a perfect combination of political analysis and brilliant chess moves. You are an asset. Please permit me to share.

vannessa7:


Go and sit down, I have video evidence of serious rigging by both the LP and PDP. There is no saint among them, but the mandata of the majority still stand, imagine south east result delayed till the last minute. Kettle calling pot black, they LP even rigged Lagos state and I have evidence.

I love you....

johnmartus:
Minister of niger delta affairs be that.

Yes. Most likely.

You obviously don't know Tinubu. He rewards loyalty all the time

Jennyclay:
This election was rigged

It's now crystal clear that we have over 8 million mad people in Nigeria. SMH

my problem with you Obidients is that you are too dull to be considered serious. In the same statement, you said the election was rigged and that there 8 million mad people. Meaning 8m voted for Tinubu. If they did, which one was then rigged? The Obi votes, I believe.

topsam1:
Mr conversant, Tinubu has been declared the winner...

AwkaFinest:
BORNO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULT.

APC : 252,282
PDP : 190921
NNPP: 4,636

Finally. This is the ice topping on the cake. Asiwaju is President

Broxyy:
Guys please is true Federal Agency is sending text message?

Yes. They have. Congrats!!!??

chiokeman:
25% sure for LP in Ogun. I worked as PO in IFO LGA, obi almost cleared the whole unit.

Lmao.

traihit:


I wonder why you're a foot soldier for your oppressors instead of making it in some industry since your lord and master made all things beautiful in Lagos State.

Tinubu is my oppressor? Maybe you should go and find out why he oppressed your family but as for me and mine, we are fine.

Offpoint1:

Lagos is the only state in Nigeria, politics aside... Some of you guys are just too daft I swear.

your father is daft

Kobonaire4:


It is kind of the fault of our education system and the way the economy is set up

Educated people leave the villages and head out into the cities to look for work and other opportunitues. This leaves those who cannot leave because they are not educated enough.

The main parties build their structures and their support on the people left behind. And since these are the people that the villagers see...not the educated man in the city that may come home once in a year or sometimes in years....they win elections for their main parties.

I don't like it when people call them illiterates for voting APC and PDP.(I reiterate that that is a mistake...something that the Democrats learned the hard way in 2015, and even still make, and something seen to some extent in the UK). APC and PDP are sadly the only parties that at least give a damm. LP? Lord knows I used to live in the North. LP is not to be seen anywhere in the rural areas. If LP at least did some mobilization and came with some ideas that suit the rural areas, or even some of the educated people came home and ran for councillor, and suchlike, or even engaged in local activisim so that people could eventually see that APC and PDP are fake parties who just want power...maybe things might change. But it is hard work, and most of us educated people ain't got time.

LP is also not above using tribe and religion to to woo voters...plus a lot of the educated vote for all three parties on tribal and religious grounds.

At the end, politics in Nigeria is not about issues. I don't consider Atiku, Tinubu or Obi have anything new for Nigerians. At the end, they would just do what has been done year in, year out;;;;over subsidise, take loans to cover the deficit, find jobs for the boys and girls, and the rest of us will complain and grumble as we always do about 'corruption' and look for the next 'hero'.

super informed and super intelligent

GeneralPula:
Seyi Makinde would have had a tough ride for his re-election if not based on how things are..

Teslim Folarin is a grassroots politician and he’s well popular with fan base..

But it’s all solved.. Teslim would hold on for 4years..

I love people wey know politics. Kudos Sir. Ajisebioyolaari.....

PHIPEX:
So they are more than the indigenes?

do you live or have ever been to Suleja? Please don't argue blindly. Thanks

That's a stronghold of South-easterners living in Niger State.

Amarabae:

Stop deceiving yourself
Atiku is currently winning Katsina,
Kwankwaso won Kano while Atiku got 25% there
Kaduna is a battle ground currently with PDP edging others out

The KKK states, Thiefnibu performed poorly.

The whole of SS , we will get 25%,
We are wiping your thiefnibu oraimo cord in NE.
Atiku won osun and will get 25% in all SW states

Your thief slav master is struggling with LP for Lagos
Atiku is your next president

Atiku winning Katsina? You guys are just moving mad

Neoteny7:


Thank you for giving us a contact number. The DSS will find it quite useful.

God bless you for this......let's start picking them out one by one. Children of anarchy

Jokers

2mch:

Don’t mind the mad dwarf. He should be picked up very soon. He will soon start crying on twitter. Kurugbente that they will package inside suitcase.

Look at how the paper twisted his words. Trust Nigerians, they won't read the body of the news to verify if he truly made that statement. Bunch of illiterates.

This clown that will have been a houseboy if not for the opportunity and support Asiwaju gave the entertainment industry in Lagos. No problem with the END SARS, where there will be a problem is if he doesn't relocate to Calabar or Uyo to start it. If he tries it in Lagos, the army will silence him like a mosquito that he is.

Goke7:


Na Yoruba Dey do political correctness. No other region in Nigeria does same.

Anyone saying they are voting based on competence is lying. Na some Yorubas Dey deceive themselves. Politics in Nigeria is interest based and nothing more

well said

PureMe01:


Yes APC will get 10million votes those two states while PDP/NNPP get zero

So it's no more Ekiti,u have shifted to Katsina and Niger?
U will keep shifting goalpost till nothing to shift again

Okay......

PureMe01:

You are yet to see Enugu results

Wait until Katsina and Niger is announced. De play

Johnson225:


Oga shut up and leave my mention.

Same police that were present in polling unit and lots on nonsense where going on in their presence. Abi na another police you Dey talk about?

No, you shut up and listen. I pray that the day you lay your hand on a fellow human like you is the day they will break your skull and spill your brains. Cheers!

Obaaderemi2:
The link is not working. Could you please summarize what's in the link?

LP trying to rig elections in Lagos

CutieKing:
24,500 results uploaded so far out of 176k..
Slow but moving gradually.

Thanks for the constant update

Buhari knows how to nip them in their bid. Not to worry.....

They asked her if she has the original copy of the results, she said yes. They asked her to produce it, she said it does not matter.


I don't pay attention to false alarmists. Their plan is discredit the process be ause their preferred candidate is losing.

post=121252887:
Peter Obi is leading in 17 states and also making his 25% in over 20 states in Nigeria - with the results collated so far

Judging from the Ekiti results that have trickled in from 10 LGAs out of 16 and announced officially by the SRO, LP does not have 5,000 votes yet you have allocated over 9,000 votes to LP in Ekiti. Lol

E go soon clear for Una eyes with all the fake results you keep peddling all over the internet.

Fuckyoumod:
you people will just be sitting at the comfort of you keyboard at home type nonsense.

Sane societies..... An Ape, Gorilla, monkey and a Nigerian is defending a criminal.

He called the assault on himself by disenfranchising that crowd.

Does even have sense? Imagine that number of crowd, no fear and single respect from that corp member.

Next time he will think twice, just incase he survives.

k.