₦airaland Forum

MikeofAfrica:
You have to understand that three factors win elections in Nigeria. They are Religion, Tribe and Party Structure. Religion and tribe are dominant factors in the north while Party Structure is the dominant factor in South. You also have to understand that the north will use her high population to determine the next president like they did in previous elections.
Buhari won the north against Jonathan in 2011 through tribe and religion factors. Having also contested two previous elections, he had personal structures in the north.
Both Atiku and Kwankwaso have the advantage of religion and tribal sentiments in the north. Atiku also has the advantage of contesting under a party with a good structure in the north. For Tinubu, his party has the strongest structure in the north but the factor of tribe does not favour him.
Hence he tries balancing it by going for a Muslim/ muslim ticket. It is a risk that will make him either win the election or loss it to Atiku.
Obi would have stand a good chance if all Christians can unite and vote for him. But many SW Christians will not mind a Muslim/ Muslim ticket as long as the candidate is a Yoruba. SS is also the stronghold of PDP hence religion will not play a major role in her decision.

You dont know what you are talking about

I will just pass

MikeofAfrica:
Election is not won on Social media but through political structures. PDP has a formidable structure in SS/SE which Peter Obi cannot easily dismantle. Hence Atiku will win at least 5 states in SS. Atiku will also win at least 2 States in SE.
APC has her Structure in NW. Like Obi, Kwankwaso will try to dismantle the structure. However,Tinubu will win at least 4 states in NW and at least 3 states in NE while Atiku will win 3 states in NE.
Tinubu will win all 6 SW states although Obi and Atiku will perform well in the region. The NC will be shared btw Tinubu and Atiku.
Hence either Tinubu or Atiku will win the election. Peter Obi and Kwankwaso will contest for the 3rd position.

Oh!! You people should keep shut with all these "structure" talk abeg.

Didnt Buhari win the NW and NE twice massively WITHOUT structure?

Maybe you are completely unaware of the changing dynamics of this election, most of which favour Obi(especially) and Kwankwaso

kingthreat:
Abeg leave me alone before you start threatening my family like you all are doing to Reno

Aiit....bye

Abfinest007:
To tell u the value of obi.the governor shaking him with two hands.give tinubu and atiku change they will do same with two hands

I saw that too. Even the positioning of the body whilst shaking.

It is like a Gov welcoming a sitting President.

The kind block votes wey Obi go receive from SE ehn.... Eyes have not seen

kingthreat:
I was about all the candidates not Peter Obi alone. You people are so bitter.

I asked you a question, how is that bitterness?

kingthreat:
Thanks for sharing your opinion on this forum. It is good to realize that there exists unprejudiced people who are neither ready to believe political gimmicks nor torn between ethnic-religious lines. All the present top candidates for the 2023 elections are rogues. In a lawful Nigeria, they will either be serving or have served jail terms making them disqualified for the office of the presidency.

The man in the picture was my expectation to run for presidency. He was GEJ's minister of Agriculture and excelled. As head of AFDB, he has been excelling and constantly making grounds. When he was investigated by the West for corruption, he was found guiltless. This is someone that has worked and his achievements show not Peter Obi, who worked for 8 years and has not brought a single foreign investment to Anambra state. Nigeria lost by not fielding a candidate like Akinwunmi Adesina, Donald Duke, etc.

Please ignore those insulting you. To them neutrality is a crime, shows you why Reno comes online to complain about them all the time.

Did you just say Peter Obi did not attract forwign investments to Anambra as a Gov(cos that is the only thing you said against him in your long tirade)?

amc:
A vote for Peter Obi might be a vote for IPOB. That’s my only concern with Obi’s candidacy. A genuine concern.

Are you a Northern?

Cos i suspect that this is one of the reasons a lot of northerners have not ooened up to Obi- issue of "trust".

Something that Obi and his Team need to intelligently attend to

tunjijones:
It's a lie. Peter obi will not cut any cost. APC said more than that when they were in opposition. It's when you enter aso rock the reality will now dawn on you.

Do you think Buhari doesn't want to do right? Do you think he doesn't want his name to be the one that turned Nigeria around for good. He actually want that but he is just clueless on how to go about it same with Jonathan.

Bros prepare yourself, things wld get worse. The only thing that can change the course of Nigeria is if this system of governance is abolished.

Let's go back to regional style of government just like it's done in the us. But wld Peter obi have the political will to restructure the country?

The answer is no.

Peter Obi actually cut cost massively in Anambra. And it seems that that is his personal character even way before he became Gov.

This is not surprising as that is how i am personally: i hate superflous and unnecessary spending.

I agree that Nigeria is in deep straits sha.

seunmsg:
The people of Ebonyi are the WE

When Umahi was still in PDP, 90,726 voters representing 25.26% of total Ebonyi voters in the 2019 presidential election votes for APC. Now that their beloved governor and all appointed and most elected government officials in the state are now in APC, there is a high possibility of an outright victory for the party in the state.

Bwahahahahaha......

tunjijones:
So Peter obi will come and clear the debt? You guys are really funny.

Peter obi, like every other politicians only have one thing in mind. To enrich themselves and their family. Nigeria is very broke and I don't see things turning around anytime soon.

Apart from poverty, we have insecurity. Have you ever stopped for once and sincerely ask yourself how Peter obi will stop kidnapping, banditry and boko Haram if he is elected president?

You are right that things will really be difficult in 2023 regardless of who becomes President.

But what we need most now is for Confidence and a complete course correction to happen i Nigeria and its economy. That, and serious cost cutting, is the only hope for Nigeria at this point.

And Peter Obi seem to be the only of the 4 Big Presidential candidates that is close to providing this

But you are right. Even with him, it will be very difficult.

The situation is so bleeping terrible

dmostcheerful:
Nigeria is gradually heading to a failed nation.
If someone with no economic plan for the country comes in after Buhari, someone like the Agbadu and cassava master, Nigeria will finish kpatakpata

We have to get it right in 2023 or we are completely finished.

Personally, i have activated plans to japa if 2023 brings more of same.

It is now about survival

To simply explain this:

All the money made by Nigeria is used to pay INTERESTS (i.e service the debts but not actually pay the debt).

So every other money spent by Govt for capital and recurrent expenditure (e.g paying of salaries) has to be BORROWED.

The loans therefore kept growing, the actual debts keep growing whilst the interests to be paid on such debts also increases.

We are in deep shiit in this country!!!

TakeNigeriaBack:
Its okay. We are waiting for you in the vote booth. Ba damuwa

Meanwhile Tinubu/Shettima is a major goal. Peruse:

You are waiting for who plzz?

Who are you and who are you waiting for?

TakeNigeriaBack:
And Muslims will reject any ticket with a Christian on it. You see how this bigotry works now?

Thr APC started it.

Made a religious choice, after alot of warning not to do so.

You cannot expect people not to react as they see fit

Kingkum:
Not all PDP governors biko! Ortom of benue state issa failure.

Plus Okpeazu of Abia

Big failure!!!

Simeonjoe1:
All this are noise the way APC makes noise in 2015. If eventually obi enters you'll still make another noise in 2027 seeking for another change. Same human politics same noise from the starts of human history and we can never be satisfied by human rule.

You have lost hope abi?

I will not blame you.

But some of us xannot afford to. At least for now

nameo:
Engage guys

For or against, after reading through

.

Eddygourdo:
We still have a long way to go, but it is clear we have the best candidate and we will ensure he gets to aso rock.

Yea... a lot of work

@Anambrason @senatordave @helinues @onatisi @redsun @seunmsg

Engage guys

For or against, after reading through

The Peter Obi movement is not just online. It is HUGE offline. Real huge.

I dont know where you are in Nigeria, but in the SE, SS, parts of SW(esp Lagos) and parts of the NC/NE("Middle belt" ), Obi movement is huge and more importantly, growing.

As to the factors currently operating and likely to affect next year's election:

1. Huge interest shown by the Youths (and Young people), a demographic that is not only by far the largest in the country, but one that is usuallly uninterested in previous elections, have now been woken up and would vote in massive numbers this time around. They are also the demographic with the greatest passion, needed to power a movement.

2. The higher interest of the south compared to the north, except perhaps Kano and environs(Kwankwaso effect).

3. The fact that as it stands, Peter Obi is the only candidate amongst the big four that is assured of a regional block vote(Southeast). None of the others can get a regional block vote. As a matter of fact, the upper north(where Kwankawso and ATiku comes from) will be shared by at least three of the candidates whilst the Southwest(where Tinubu comes from) will be shared by 3 of the candidates also. No body has ever won elections in Nigeria without a regional block vote behind him.

4. The Momemtum of the election is with Obi(and to some extent, Kwankwaso) whilst the 2 other older parties have issues with regional and religious balancing - they have issuesi n their parties currently. Momentum, if it continues to the day of the elections, have always been crucial to winning elections.

5. The organic nature of some of the campaigns(esp Obi and Kwankwaso), making the campaigns very unpredictable as people would be doing much of the work themselves as the "spirit leads", without direct inducement from the candidates. We have already started seeing it with the printing of campaign materials and billboards, raising of funds, man-to-man "preaching" of preferred candidates, political parades organised by random people, etc. that one sees only with the Obi and (again to some extent, Kwankwaso) movements.

6. The narrative of the elections so far is with Obi and his supporters. The obedients have for example almost completely taken over the online(Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Youtube, even Tittok, etc) media and even offline(Obi is perhaps the most talked about candidate, even from other parties, currently). This has been very frustrtaing to the older parties as they know very well how the narrative is crucial to winning elections(the main reason for the attack on the character of "Obedients" by the old parties). That was one of the things used effectively by APC in 2015.

7. The fact the country is truly messed up and people are just TIRED of the old(current) system, to the point of been a Life-and-death situation/decision for them. From terrible lived insecurity, personally biting economy(inflation, exchange rate, poverty rate, unemployment rate, debt levels etc), terrible infrastructure esp Power, a dead education and health system(e.g 6 months running ASUU strike in an election year), badly managed diversity by the ruling elites, unimaginable corruption, etc etc. This is perhaps the greatest hindrance to both the APC (especially) and PDP.

8. The general sentiment that power should shift to the south. A sentiment even shared by a lot of persons in the north, talkess of the south. It is generally felt that power should move back to the south after spending 8 years in the north.

9. The Muslim-Muslim ticket of the ruling party, which would be very fatal to APC in the Middle belt(parts of NC/NE) as well as most parts of the south, which trust me will be harnessed to effect by some of the political parties. This is very huge as Christains are very angry, esp northern Chrristains. When you see most northern APC members openly complain, it is not just that they feel slighted themselves, it is also that there is the real fear that they will not only lose the Presidential elections but may also lose in other down-the-ballot positions(Governoships, NA, SHA, etc) as their people would not vote for any thing APC due to the Muslim-muslim tciket. And may I repeat that this is very real in those populations, as christains are currently massively mobilizing. And with the nature of the next Presidential elections(SE been reserved for one candidate, and SW, NE, NW, SS very competive), anybody who can win the NC(generally) and most parts of the "Middle belt" may very likely win the elections. This would clearly be in favour of Atiku and Obi, with Obi in prime position if he can make allainces and harness these votes, been the only Christain candidate amongst the big four.

10. The new electoral law, with the use of BVAS and the automatic upload of results from the PU, and the fact that election management has been improving markedly as evidenced in the last Osun election, is a huge burst to the new parties/candidates. This is cos a lot more people will have greater confidence that their votes will count. Also, there is a far lesser chance of election manipulation as was the case previously.

11. Arising partly from point 10 above, and the general greater interest shown by a large majority of people in the next election(as evidenced for instance by the ongoing and unprecedented PVC registration and collection), the voter turnout in 2023 is expected to be much higher than say 2019(where just about 30% of registered voters actually voted). This is crucial as not only does the majority of registered voters refuse to vote in previous elections, but that 30% minority is the main reason the "structure" of the old political parties work: these 30% are mostly members of the political parties; the family, friends, villagers etc of the candidates, and a few others who are mobilized by the deployment of money or sentiments by these old politicians. Thsi time around as more people vote, the effect of this minority voters("structure" would be much smaller. Also, most of these voters(both the new ones and the
old voters that normally dont vote) are likely to vote the newer candidates/parties.

12. Peter Obi is the candidate with the CHARACTER and the MESSAGE, and people are very receptive to the possibility of change.

13. The elections is still 7 months ago even after the choosing of candidates, unlike what is obtained previously. As they say, a day is a lifetime in politics, talkless of 7 months.

I do not kid myself. There is a lot of work to be done by Obi and the campaign. There are 2 main factors militating against his candidature and they are considerable(I will talk about these later), but I believe he has a path to victory next year. The current factors, momentum and NEED favours this.

Personally, i have chosen to vote for him cos i really want the "old system" to be changed. And i believe that from the Big 4, he is the one to most likely make that happen.

onatisi:
i wont like to derail this thread , but i will just like to know which current factors u think favors obi ?
i like the fact that you admit a lot of work still needs to be done , that is a positive plus ,
thirdly you mentioned that within the last 2 months he and his movements have covered a lot of ground , please i hope you are not referring to social media campaign ooo, because if that is what you are referring to then i dont believe that is a lot of ground . AND PLEASE LET YOUR REPLY DEVOID OF ANY NGATIVE COMMENT .

The Peter Obi movement is not just online. It is HUGE offline. Real huge.

I dont know where you are in Nigeria, but in the SE, SS, parts of SW(esp Lagos) and parts of the NC/NE("Middle belt" ), Obi movement is huge and more importantly, growing.

As to the factors currently operating and likely to affect next year's election:

1. Huge interest shown by the Youths (and Young people), a demographic that is not only by far the largest in the country, but one that is usuallly uninterested in previous elections, have now been woken up and would vote in massive numbers this time around. They are also the demographic with the greatest passion, needed to power a movement.

2. The higher interest of the south compared to the north, except perhaps Kano and environs(Kwankwaso effect).

3. The fact that as it stands, Peter Obi is the only candidate amongst the big four that is assured of a regional block vote(Southeast). None of the others can get a regional block vote. As a matter of fact, the upper north(where Kwankawso and ATiku comes from) will be shared by at least three of the candidates whilst the Southwest(where Tinubu comes from) will be shared by 3 of the candidates also. No body has ever won elections in Nigeria without a regional block vote behind him.

4. The Momemtum of the election is with Obi(and to some extent, Kwankwaso) whilst the 2 other older parties have issues with regional and religious balancing - they have issuesi n their parties currently. Momentum, if it continues to the day of the elections, have always been crucial to winning elections.

5. The organic nature of some of the campaigns(esp Obi and Kwankwaso), making the campaigns very unpredictable as people would be doing much of the work themselves as the "spirit leads", without direct inducement from the candidates. We have already started seeing it with the printing of campaign materials and billboards, raising of funds, man-to-man "preaching" of preferred candidates, political parades organised by random people, etc. that one sees only with the Obi and (again to some extent, Kwankwaso) movements.

6. The narrative of the elections so far is with Obi and his supporters. The obedients have for example almost completely taken over the online(Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Youtube, even Tittok, etc) media and even offline(Obi is perhaps the most talked about candidate, even from other parties, currently). This has been very frustrtaing to the older parties as they know very well how the narrative is crucial to winning elections(the main reason for the attack on the character of "Obedients" by the old parties). That was one of the things used effectively by APC in 2015.

7. The fact the country is truly messed up and people are just TIRED of the old(current) system, to the point of been a Life-and-death situation/decision for them. From terrible lived insecurity, personally biting economy(inflation, exchange rate, poverty rate, unemployment rate, debt levels etc), terrible infrastructure esp Power, a dead education and health system(e.g 6 months running ASUU strike in an election year), badly managed diversity by the ruling elites, unimaginable corruption, etc etc. This is perhaps the greatest hindrance to both the APC (especially) and PDP.

8. The general sentiment that power should shift to the south. A sentiment even shared by a lot of persons in the north, talkess of the south. It is generally felt that power should move back to the south after spending 8 years in the north.

9. The Muslim-Muslim ticket of the ruling party, which would be very fatal to APC in the Middle belt(parts of NC/NE) as well as most parts of the south, which trust me will be harnessed to effect by some of the political parties. This is very huge as Christains are very angry, esp northern Chrristains. When you see most northern APC members openly complain, it is not just that they feel slighted themselves, it is also that there is the real fear that they will not only lose the Presidential elections but may also lose in other down-the-ballot positions(Governoships, NA, SHA, etc) as their people would not vote for any thing APC due to the Muslim-muslim tciket. And may I repeat that this is very real in those populations, as christains are currently massively mobilizing. And with the nature of the next Presidential elections(SE been reserved for one candidate, and SW, NE, NW, SS very competive), anybody who can win the NC(generally) and most parts of the "Middle belt" may very likely win the elections. This would clearly be in favour of Atiku and Obi, with Obi in prime position if he can make allainces and harness these votes, been the only Christain candidate amongst the big four.

10. The new electoral law, with the use of BVAS and the automatic upload of results from the PU, and the fact that election management has been improving markedly as evidenced in the last Osun election, is a huge burst to the new parties/candidates. This is cos a lot more people will have greater confidence that their votes will count. Also, there is a far lesser chance of election manipulation as was the case previously.

11. Arising partly from point 10 above, and the general greater interest shown by a large majority of people in the next election(as evidenced for instance by the ongoing and unprecedented PVC registration and collection), the voter turnout in 2023 is expected to be much higher than say 2019(where just about 30% of registered voters actually voted). This is crucial as not only does the majority of registered voters refuse to vote in previous elections, but that 30% minority is the main reason the "structure" of the old political parties work: these 30% are mostly members of the political parties; the family, friends, villagers etc of the candidates, and a few others who are mobilized by the deployment of money or sentiments by these old politicians. Thsi time around as more people vote, the effect of this minority voters("structure" would be much smaller. Also, most of these voters(both the new ones and the
old voters that normally dont vote) are likely to vote the newer candidates/parties.

12. Peter Obi is the candidate with the CHARACTER and the MESSAGE, and people are very receptive to the possibility of change.

13. The elections is still 7 months ago even after the choosing of candidates, unlike what is obtained previously. As they say, a day is a lifetime in politics, talkless of 7 months.

I do not kid myself. There is a lot of work to be done by Obi and the campaign. There are 2 main factors militating against his candidature and they are considerable(I will talk about these later), but I believe he has a path to victory next year. The current factors, momentum and NEED favours this.

Personally, i have chosen to vote for him cos i really want the "old system" to be changed. And i believe that from the Big 4, he is the one to most likely make that happen.

Is he a Muslim or a Christain??

Esama:
Honestly I'm very happy that people of osun disgraced APC and if care not taken same thing will happen in presidential election because Buhari has destroyed the country beyond recognition our people are really suffering. Although I'm not seeing Adeleke as better candidate I even hate his political party. But if the man had contest under SdP he will still win .Because of the damaged Buhari has done to this country. IT PAINED ME THAT EKITI PEOPLE DON'T VOTED SEGUN ONI

Tinubu really need to brace up he shouldn't relying on southwest people this region don't send you they don't tolerate nonsense they always done justice with their power. The most dynamic people and sophisticated people in Nigeria.

However I'm waiting for Mumuric to issue their useless statement in coming day.And for those who think religious can destroy Yoruba people you need to leave your enclave and move around see the good relationship between Christians and muslims among this people. Do you realized that governor and deputy governor are Christians in a state that Christians and muslims are 50/50 in osun but yet people don't give a damn.

I was born in southwest having all my education in southwest known their religious practice their culture speaking their language I must say Yoruba people are great people with intellectual and progressive.

In conclusion I want to appear to Nigerians as we are gear up to 2023 general election stop voting pdp party this party destroyed our country for 16 years before APC helped them complete the job. Vote Labour party instead of this two evil party.

I thought you have been opposing Labour(Obi) here

MetaPhysical:
Osun is the only state PDP is going to get in SW.

After your pretty uselesss and FAILED prediction on Osun, you are still continuing predicting abi.

You urchins never learn

BIZNess123:


Court is still there.....

Meanwhile tinubu will get a million plus votes in osun.. knowingly fully well power is coming to the west...the people will be heavily batified..

Meanwhile tinubu has no other choice other than to pick a Muslim...cus APC majority votes comes from the NW since Yoruba Muslim aren't seen as real Muslim he has no other choice my.

Besides he will get majority of christian votes bc of his wife (RCCG pastor)


RCCG has the highest population of any church in Nigeria..

Pre-teens have invaded Nairaland

SMDH

onatisi:
Who is the younger person you feel can take over ? Let's not deceive ourselves , we all know peter obi cannot win this election ,even obi himself knows. He is not working for this presidency but for next elections that is if he keeps up the momentum. Presidential election is not something you just wake up 6 me 7 months to election and say you want to win. FOR A GOOD NEUTRAL PERSON TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NIGERIA, HE IR SHE NEEDS TO STRT THE WORK LIKE 4 YEARS BEFORE. People would have known him,he would have interacted with all groups round the nation in all states . This is not something social media can do in 8months . Tinubu has been planning his presidential campaign for the past 12 years if not more ,since the time of gej second term ,reason why he planned to be buhari vice president,that didn't work out,then he waited and planned for another 8 years through buhari tenure . Look at atiku ,he has been on this journey for over 16yrs since the time of obj second term. And yet despite their long planning ,it is not sure for them that they will win.

Bros, Peter Obi is in a prime position to win elections next year. He has a path to the Presidency, as does Tinubu and Atiku.

So many important current factors are in his favour.

And elections is even about 7 months away. Alot of work still needs to be done in that time, and considering the huge extent he and his movement have already gone in less than 2 months as well as those factors i talked, he is likely to do it

Elemosho478:
And that's why Tinubu Damned all consequences to picked a Muslim VP. Only the north can make him president and he know that, he need at least 80% support from the north to win and picking a Christian VP will lower that.

Even Tinubu is not expecting bloc votes from South west

And he can never get 40% sef from the north.

You are right with the fact that he cant get Block votes from the SW. Nobody would.

In fact, only Obi can win a regional block vote for now. Others will not

Lolz.... APC in Niger Delta came to greet him and ask him for support as APC had zoned the Presidency to the south.

He thanked them for zoning the Presidency for the south. But said he will not vote them(for presenting Muslim-muslim ticket) and PDP(for not zoning to the south).

You guess is as good as mine who he and his infleuntial organization will support in the Presidential elections

I think it is now fair to say reading this write up from someone like Babachir and seeing the massive reactions from northern Christains(esp APC members) and other people around the country, that a very significant shift have happened with APC regarding this election.

It is clear that this was not just a national error done by a desperate APC but a political error of gagantum scale. APC has lost the Middle belt and one may now ask where it hopes to get the huge votes needed to win the Presidential and other elective positions next year?

It cannot be the Upper North(cos Kwankwaso and Atiku will be sharing the votes with him there). It cannot be the SW, cos Obi and Atiku will be sharing votes there with him. And he cant now talk about the SS and SE with this choice!!

The calculations upon which this short sighted decision was made can now be seen to be very faulty and ill-thought out.

I wish him well

mfm04622:
maybe. However, he doesn't have a twitter media account. So that post is fake

Yea...you may be right

I was not referring to that post.

Oluwabusobomi:
In response to Joe Igbokwe who affirmed that Tinubu will win in 14 States, I want to emphatically say that if election is conducted today, Peter Obi will win handsomely in the following states:

1. Rivers
2. Akwa-Ibom
3. Delta
4. Edo
5. Cross- River
6. Bayelsa
7. Enugu
8. Anambra
9. Imo
10. Enonyi
11. Abia
12. Benue
13. Plateau
14. Kaduna
15. Taraba
16. Abuja

Plus a very good outing (40%) in all south west states except Ogun and Osun for now.

Good outing in Christian dominated North East areas

At least 25% in the remaining Northern states

No doubt, the numbers will continue to increase till the Election Day.

@ObiDatti is a goal

Lalasticala

Plus Lagos.

I dont know why some of you "forget" Lagos.
Peter Obi will win Lagos.

So it is 17 states. That Obi can win. Lets use can for now as these states are open for him. He needs to work towards it.

PS: I like that you call Kaduna. I said here some days ago that Obi may win Kaduna narrowly. There is a path for him. It is possible and that state is in play

LegendHero:
If he is not emotionally intelligent, he would have picked a Christian Northerner as vice and people like you would have celebrated his impending loss.

He is bold and audacious, something most of the lily liveried politician will never dare to make.

Currently, the only thing that will stop Tinubu from winning next year election is two things:

—Kwakwanso stepping down for Atiku

—Peter Obi stepping down for Atiku.

If none of the above fail to happen, Tinubu is your next president because he already forgo the Northern Christian votes in his calculation before reaching this conclusion of his. They don’t even vote APC normally before so all this threat is just for aesthetics.

Where and how do you think Tinubu can win next year's election, Bros?

Esp, as apparently, he cannot win any bloc votes from any region as it stands and in fact, will likey get block votes against him in at least 2 regions of the country as things presently stand.