garfield1:


What exactly is your problem? I said I am rounding it up to 100%.whether obi is far or close to him,he will lose in sw

You cannot round it up cos you dont know who the 30-50% of the undeciders /undisclosed would vote.

Also, i repeat that Obi and Tinubu are always very close(i one of the polls they were even equal) so you cannot predict that Tinubu will win based on SW

garfield1:


Am rounding it up to 60%.even if its 50%,he will still win

He never got anything even approaching 30% and even then Obi was always clode to him

I dont know where you are getting the 50% from

obailala:
Where exactly is Atiku in all these your analyses?

Funny how most of you BATISTS still havent woken up to smell the coffee - The north is supporting their own; Atiku will likely sweep most of the northern votes even from APC strongholds. Even Buhari himself might be voting Atiku on Saturday. The entire Naira swap policy stinks like a strategy of the northern cabal to deprive Tinubu of votes, to the advantage of Atiku...

Atiku is NOT sweeping any Northern vote. He may win but the win will be very narrow.

The so-called northern consensus has not happened except for the noise.

Kwankwaso is still in the race. Both the ACF and NEF have not endorsed Atiku until today, 2 days before the elections.

Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso will get a majority of the upper North (NW and NE) votes whilst Obi and Voter-aparthy will get a few sef.

Whilst Obi will win the majority of the Middle belt(which is also North).

There is no path for Atiku in this election

garfield1:
Most opinion polls predict an obi victory.the most prominent and reliable are anap/noi and Bantu... Both predicted obi to win se by 80%,ss by 50%,a narrow win or sharing nc with tinubu and a narrow victory for atiku in ne/nw and a 60% win for tinubu in sw....

But if we look at it statistically,it is a tinubu win.ss and se voters turnout is 6 million.average turnout in ne/ ne is 13.5 million.if assuming obi has 4 mil out of 6 million votes in se ss and Tinubu scores 5.5 million out of 13.5 mil in ne nw,he leads obi by 1.5 million.let's assume obi wins nc by 500k,tinubu's lead is down to a million.let us assume obi scores 1 mil in ne nw,they are equal.it will be down to the sw where tinubu will obviously win by at least 2 mil vote margin.
In a worst case scenario,obi might have the highest votes and surely fail to get the spread.tinubu will get the spread and second highest votes and will go into a runoff with obi where he will obviously win as the north will vote tinubu even if kwankwaso and atiku endorse obi.



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When did NOI or Bantupage or any of the scientific poll give Tinubu 60%.

It is a lie and you know it.

None of them gave Tinubu more than 10 % point on the average from Obi.

I just wanted to point that out

Trollronaldo:
They have reduced Peter Obi's odds.

It will be further reduced on friday to 1.2 🤣

As in ehn

It was around 5 or so at som point


Jungle is maturing, isnt it?

Obi is winning this in the 1st round.

Everything points clearly to this

Obi is winning this in the 1st round.

All signs clearly points to that

Shikini:


Shebi, the Muslim-Northern votes you talked about will be split among three Muslims candidates? It will only make a difference if the Northern Muslims give a block vote but as long as the votes are split ... Obi is fine

Obi cannot struggle Muslims votes with the Muslims candidates because we all know that unlike the South, religion is a big factor up North
.

Summary of what i wanted to say esp the 1st paragraph

GeorgWashinton:
Obi is gaining ground by day.

Na those APC abi PDAPC urchin I pity most.

Clear

hedonido:
It's not a coincidence that he happens to be a Yoruba man.

Dont be siiillly with nonsense such as this.

Some Yoruba Obedients are even more fervent and have overcome far more due to their choice than you. And they are many. Very many

Midehi3:

We already have our PVC, we are ready

Great!!

Midehi3:
We know he will win, but corrupt politicians won't allow him, they are masters of rigging, they are already on it tooth and nail to rig to their favour

They wouldnt rig this one. Especially if you come out to vote.

If there is high voters turnout, coupled with the significant changes in the electoral law(BVAS, electronic transmission of votes, no incidence forms, etc), they would not be able to rig.

Please come out to vote. Also, please tell everyone in your influence circle(family members, relatives, friends, church/mosque members, colleagues at work etc) who have PVC to come out and vote. Lets save Nigeria

Two things stand out for me in his speech here:

1. That the choice of Obi's candidacy did not just come from him but from stakeholders in his state (he mentioned Youths, traditional rulers, and people across party lines) who told him to choose Obi on behalf of Benue people.

2. His calling out of the few Igbo politicians who initially opposed Obi and asking how they will continue to complain of marginalization now that the whole country is supporting Obi for President.

God bless Ortom for his Courage

Afonja2:
On January 23, 2023, INEC announced that 18 registered political parties in Nigeria have submitted a total of 1,575,689 polling agents (PAs) to represent them at the 176,846 polling units across the country.

Please see here https://dailytrust.com/political-parties-submit-1-5m-agents-for-176846-polling-units/

According to law, each political party is expected to present a party agent in each of the 176,846 polling units in the country, especially for the presidential election, which comes up on Saturday 25 February, 2023.

A further breakdown has been released which revealed the number of party agents submitted by each of the political parties. In the breakdown, only the ruling All Progressives Party (APC) and Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) have party agents in each of the polling units across the country. Others could not meet this, due to reasons that are not readily made available.

See below the breakdown of party agents submitted to INEC by political parties in the country.

1. APC- 176,974 Agents (100%)
2. LP- 41,234 Agents (23.30%)
3. NNPP - 23,460 Agents (13.25%)
4. PDP- 176,974 Agents (100%)
5. Other 14 Political Parties - 1,081,358

The big question is: if a political party could not present party agents in all the polling units in the country, how will their interests be protected on the election day?

Where did you get these figures from cos i cant find it in the article you linked

@ seun, you are watching while your forum is been destroyed with FAKE news left-right-centre without consequences

There was a time Nairaland was the go-to centre for authentic and latest news one can trust.

Keep watching

Two Greats!!!

Music.. Literature

Obi will pull big surprises in the SW in this election.

A lot of Yorubas are supporting Obi

God bless the Yorubas

doctokwus:
The same reason Obi will win in Abuja is the same reason he may win in Lagos:the enlightened population in these 2 key cities.
His winning in Lagos,if it happens,won't be because of the Igbos alone because even if all the Igbos in Lagos vote for him and other tribes vote for other candidates,he won't flip Lagos.
But if the number of middle class to upper class and educated but poor earning or unemployed people,that turn out that day increases,he would win the state.
Abuja usually doesn't vote doubtful,poorly performing parties.Buhari lost there in 2019 despite being an incumbent.

Someone even said it better.

Had i seen this i would not have even bothered to type

blacksam01:
i live in lagos all my life...these things i know

yoruba has the highest population despite igbos large population, next is igbos, then i term the rest non yorubas

if igbos vote for obi say like 85% cuz many are also underage...i know for sure that aside the northerners, the rest of the non yorubas who are of voting age will vote for Obi...

now if u combine igbos + non yorubas - northerners, the answer is a voting population that is bigger than YORUBAS..again a handful of enlighten and unbiased yorubas will still vote for obi...so its no painsaying that obi will win lagos hands down....

It is not a handful of yorubas.

Up to 30-40% of Yorubas in Lagos will vote for Obi.

All my Yorubas friends, except one, are voting for Obi. In fact, generally, some of the most fervent supporters of Obi are Yorubas.

And Lagos is where the most enlightened Lagosians are.

PS: I dont want to argue with anyone on this. Saturday is election day

Peter Obi will win Lagis. I have said this over 4 months ago.

And i will come back to this thread after the elections to say "i told y'all so"

mylove4God:
Yes, I have my PVC. I was so excited the day I got it after trying severally times to get it and also seen people who came to collect their been told that theirs were not printed or found.
I danced that day there. I pray God bless Nigeria with a good leader. We don suffer too much.
Btw I am #Obidient

God bless you

By the way, yes i got my PVC.

And i am voting and mobilizing those in my influence circle to vote massively for Obi.

That is how much i love this nation

internationalman:
90% of Nigerians on social media are supporting Peter Obi,

There's stat that 32million Nigerians are on social media of which at least 60% will vote.. Which brings the volume to 19 million

90% of Peter Obi supporters on social media of 19million of the total social media users that might vote at least equals 17million people..

So by this rough estimate, Peter Obi is supposed to be guaranteed 17million social media users vote..

But don't be surprised he won't even get up to 10million voters when the election is done.

APC people are that demonic..

Peter Obi is the household name and the name on every Nigerian mouth. But ironically the candidate that an average Nigerian shows disdain for might win..

Everything works on reverse in Nigeria. Weird country it is.

Not this time around Bros.

As long as people come out to vote, no rigging or any of the shenanigans will work. Rigging and manipulation only happens when voters turnout is low.

Plzz come out and vote. Tell others too

We are winning this

AlmightyMod:
I always dust my PVC every morning waiting patiently for the D-Day...... My vote must count and anyone I vote must win

Plzz vote for Obi.

Plzz give Nigeria the chance to thrive

This so nauseating!!

This is clear vote buying, at our faces

Gosh!!

id911:
Is Peter Obi the only candidate contesting in this election? This hatred is becoming nauseating.

It is not Hatred.

It is FEAR

And we love the taste of it

ShowYourCertificate:
We have Bloomberg, The Economist, New York Times and now The Guardian all reporting the truth...that Peter Obi is favoured to win. These are reputable international newspapers. And Peter Obi did not give them shishi...lol

They are all following the data, Bros.

And ALL the data(from all scientific poll) as well as reality on the ground point to one outcome: a revolution of the people led by Obi.

Feb 25 is this Week

Like the Economist just said: " Obi is easily the best candidate of the lot".

That is eggzactly the position of Nigerians. This is why he is consistently the popular candidate for voters in Nigeria.

6 days left for us to elect him

Consistency and Integrity are the hallmark of
CHARACTER.

Peter Obi has always been who he is. What is see today is what he has always been. Before and especially away from the limelight.

SmartPolician:
Please let's go beyond opinion polls because the real elections are just a week a way.

Plan your travels; take permission from your office to do that if you must. If you must travel to vote for Peter Obi, it is worth it.

I heard that Labour Party was planning to move students to various states where they registered so they can vote, but I don't know what's happening to that plan.

Man your votes and stay there for the votes to be counted. Know the winner and scores before leaving.

Volunteer to do something for Labour Party because the forces we are fighting are very formidable. They have stolen a lot of money for decades and have a lot of it to throw around!

May we see a working Nigeria in our lifetime, amen! 🙏🙏🙏

Well said!!!

Penguin2:


Lol!

But Tinubu BATstards said no one knows Peter Obi in rural areas. That ‘making noise’ in urban areas is not enough to give Peter Obi.

A rude awakening awaits them.

Yea

HUGE...very huge

Expect endorsements galore tomorrow(sunday)

Dapagun:
Despite this, we modelled for the National Assembly elections, which points to a Senate dominated by the APC and a House of Representatives with the PDP in the majority, leading to potential legislative gridlock in a divided 10th National Assembly. ([b]Image 1)[/b]

The survey has attempted to account for demographics and voting numbers in each zone and their possible turnout to keep the citizenry aware of the issues pertinent to the coming 2023 elections. (Image 2)

It is hoped that this information will help people as well as enable institutional, civic and media stakeholders to make informed decisions that will benefit the future of #Nigeria.

Download the complete report - https:///G66lBDD1I5

We will publish a similar report on the governorship elections in the 28 Nigerian states that select their leaders along with the presidency in the lead-up to those elections in mid-March 2023.

For data wonks, download the working document here - https:///3mCcw7MEOg

SBM is a reputation intelligence company in the data space. So i will pay attention to them.

I need to read the report myself tho and the links above are not opening