₦airaland Forum

faoogoke:
That is NGX for you. A few like Juli are still listed.

After this Ellah lakes move I wont be surprised if people start doing mergers with these sort of companies in order to get listed

SohSoh:
If you want to challenge my analysis, do it with facts, not feelings.

I’ve never seen you give one solid recommendation that worked, but when it comes to insults, your grammar suddenly improves.

Let’s keep it civil — I discuss markets, not emotions.

The next time you use offensive language, I’ll just block your account.

You don’t have to agree with me, but you can always scroll past my comment.

Firstly I never insulted you or anyone. I just simply stated that I don't agree with the recommendation, or rather that the recommendation is highly speculative since it is not backed by numbers.

Secondly, I am not here to give recommendations but rather I am here to have discussions. I sometimes state what I am about to buy in order to get the opinions of others so I can see if there is something I am not seeing in my analysis. Other times when I do what some may term as recommendation, I am simply promoting a stock which I have bought with a view to generate interest in the stock I have bought.

Finally with regards to the insult. If you feel insulted I sincerely apologize; it was not my intent.

Agbalowomeri:
Oga Nosa is sophisticated and naive at the same time

You think members on this forum control up to N5b in all portfolios combined?

What percentage on that will go to a single stock?

Nigeria is a poor country oh. Most portfolios are small

stokfrick:
I believe this sudden aggressive marketing and hype for japaul is going on because they have loaded it heavily. But the thing no gree rally up instead the thing wan nosedive
So them feel aggressive marketing will help prevent the thing from crashing in the short term.
Some fit still dey use am do jijo.
It looks like a planned collabo.
Even if you want to market a stock, all these multiple repetition of post is not necessary.
They're begining to sound like a broken record.

I won't go this far. I think we over estimate our ability to substantially move stock prices.

I don't think those promoting japaul here have ulterior motives I just don't agree with their analysis. Though I see what they see.

SohSoh:
Buy Recommendation: Japaul Gold & Ventures Plc (JAPAULGOLD)
Strong Buy. At current levels (~2.63 NGN), Japaul represents undervalued entry into the gold mining surge, with room to close the performance gap to global peers.

Japaul Gold’s Lagging Potential in Nigeria: As the sole publicly listed gold mining company on the NGX, Japaul Gold & Ventures Plc offers unique local exposure but has underperformed its global peers with just 41.1% YTD appreciation (closing at 2.63 NGN as of Oct 09, 2025).   Trading at a fraction of its July 2025 all-time high of 3.66 NGN, Japaul benefits from over 300 sq km of gold exploration licenses across Nigeria and recent profitability (H1 2025 net income positive at ~1.70B NGN), yet it hasn’t fully capitalized on the sector tailwinds.

Key Take On ::: Asante Gold Corporation.
Stock Symbol :: ASE (Canada Stock Exchange)

is a Vancouver-based gold company operating in Ghana, Africa’s top gold producer. Founded in 2011, it focuses on the Bibiani and Ashanti Gold Belts.

The gold story didn't start this year. Show a 5 year chart for both Barrick and physical gold

Streetinvestor2:
Since u have done ur research. Which state presently is japaul mining the said gold
That it is going to benefit from the gold price
Have u ever seen jegede with a piece of gold bar anywhere before that u can share

Just because there is no logical reason to buy Japaul does not mean the stock cannot do 5x. I never saw and still haven't seen a logical reason to buy Bitcoin but look at what bitcoin has done. and I have known about bitcoin since 2013

Markets are often driven by emotions not logic. Given the hype around gold I am willing to make a theoretical bet that Japaul will probably do 2x very soon. However this 2x is something I will happily miss out on personally.

Agbalowomeri:
Gold below $1000? Abeg when Japaul enter mining wey you dey talk gold below $1k

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story

SohSoh:
1 :: Let it be known that this was the same energy ya'll gave my MECURE buy Recommendation... but today MECURE appreciated well over 143%

2 :: All the factors you are considering such as diesel, energy.. is acknowledge but also remember that other gold mining compnay have similar operations and yet, the stock appreciated

3 :: The rally is happening because Now Gold is considered a safe haven asset, and asset are usually held for a long period of time, so this rally is not a blip ....

4 :: did ya'll perform, your own research before writing what you are writing about Japaul
But pls remember, My MECURE BUY RECOMMENDATION.... in June 2025, and today 3 months later, MECURE appreciated well over 100% ....

What is there to analyze? The company has not produced an an ounce of gold so how do we know its cost per ounce?

Locotrader:
Xmas ram is not negotiable

Very likely

Locotrader:
@ Nosa2
Have you considered Japaul May acquire an existing gold mining/refining companies?
They already have good number of reserves in some of the subsidiaries.

If only they can give us some updates about this gold investment.

All I can see now is Japaul price rally

If you had a gold mine right now and you were selling would you sell at a discount or premium?

Growth by acquisition is not always a good thing.

SohSoh:
Before you follow me to argue about Japaul
Please remember, when I wrote about MECURE

To juggle your memory ::: When I issued a BUY recommendation on MeCure in June 2025, the stock was trading at ₦11.50.
Today, MeCure is trading at ₦28 — representing an impressive 143% return.

June To Now is just 3 Months and the stock did 143% despite all the bashing

The question is not if a stock will rise; the question is if a stock will beat Alpha (the index). The recommendation post mentioned Barrick Gold (Now Barrick Mining. On October 9th 2020 Barrick Gold was trading at $28 and today it is trading at $33. That is basically dead money.

I have been bullish on gold since gold was about $1500 (I even touted it in a podcast). Having said that, the best way to profit from gold is not necessarily by investing in the miners. Gold miners use a lot of energy and as diesel price goes up so does their costs but as with most sectors some miners are more efficient than others. Is Japaul an efficient miner? Have they even started producing gold?

Now that gold prices have rallied wanting to start a gold mine now will be a lot more expensive than it was 5 years ago. Mining equipment will be selling at a steep premium. Is any body considering this?

It is very possible that Japaul will Rally but I will not touch it. I don't have money to throw away based on illogical hype backed by innuendo and no numbers

ositadima1:
So, we’re getting another 10% today, that’s all I’m after, lol.

It's available right now, I have funds in my brokerage account but I'm not buying. Guess I don't like money

SonofElElyonRet:
Ok. As long as they raise the money..

They don't need to raise money. Shares will be issued to the private company and current shareholders will become minority shareholders of the larger company.

Smart move if you ask me. Though it reeks of insider dealing. The Telluria guys knew about this from the beginning

KarlTom:
There's a high probability that this is the financial package ELLAH has in place because it will be Herculean to raise ₦250bn from the market in 3months.

Read more about Bayo Ogunlesi's GIP...

Exactly. Ellah is too small to buy this company. What we are witnessing is the company going public in an accelerated manner.

This is very bullish for Ellah holders

SonofElElyonRet:
You're right. I can't see it. Ellah announced it's raising N250b to acquire significant agricultural asset(s) which communicates that it'll be Ellah raising the funds via sale of new shares.. good morning

It started with Telluria.

SonofElElyonRet:
How does this relate to Ellah? Ellah has said it's raising N250b already

SPAC is not a bad thing. If you cant see it you wont see it and heaven knows I don't have energy to type it

yMcy56:
Chams crossed 4 already!
What a pleasant surprise......

ELLAHLAKES on full bid @14.81!
Just wow! 😲
Conductor don lock door against Street.... 😁

If you missed out of Ellah, don't miss out of VFD....

Please what is the gist on VFD?

SonofElElyonRet:
@emmanuelewumi
Kindly note the bolded about December deadline for payment. If there is/are no private investor(s) on ground, would Ellah lakes be talking about December? Just processing the facts

Ellah Lakes Plc has entered into an agreement for the acquisition of shareholding of Agro-Allied Resources & Processing Nigeria Limited (ARPN) from ARPN PTE Limited, Singapore (ARPN PTE).

This move is in line with Ellah Lakes Plc strategy to deepen its operational footprint, scale efficiencies, and drive national food security impact.

The transaction will involve the acquisition of 100 percent shareholding of ARPN, and its closing is targeted for December 2025, subject to satisfaction of all conditions precedent.

I believe we are witnessing NGX's first SPAC



A Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) is a shell company created solely to raise capital from investors to acquire or merge with an existing private company, effectively taking it public without a traditional Initial Public Offering (IPO). These "blank check" companies have no commercial operations of their own, existing only as a vehicle to find and merge with a target private company.
How SPACs Work

Formation:
A SPAC is formed by investors, known as sponsors, with no predetermined acquisition target.

IPO:
The SPAC then raises money through a public offering, listing its shares on a stock exchange.
Acquisition:
With the capital raised, the SPAC searches for a private company to acquire or merge with.
Going Public:
Once a target is identified and the deal is approved, the private company merges with the SPAC and becomes publicly traded, using the SPAC's existing public listing.

Key Characteristics

Shell Company: A SPAC is a "shell" with no assets other than the cash from its IPO.

Blank Check: Investors place their trust in the management team's expertise to find a suitable target.
Alternative to IPO: SPACs offer a faster route for private companies to become publicly traded compared to the complex IPO process.

Risks and Considerations

Less Transparency: The process can be less transparent than a traditional IPO.
Speculative Nature: SPACs can be highly speculative, and investors have lost money on some of them.

Potvalor:
A lot of fresh graduates will jump on any decent first offer they can get. Dangote Refinery carried out a fairly large-scale recruitment in 2023–2024 and attracted some of Nigeria’s top talent, including many first-class engineering graduates. So I’d imagine that 1–2 years into the job, some of those guys might start regretting their choices, and want a better pay package, especially when they compare their salaries with their lucky peers who joined proper oil and gas companies. I’ve heard that some indigenous firms like Aradel or Seplat pay around 5–8 times of Dangote Refinery (at least at entry-level, with added benefits too). So the PENGASSAN unionism might have been their solution to negotiate a better pay package, though I am not necessarily supporting their choices.

The main objective of my earlier post wasn’t to fault Dangote, it was just back up the ₦400K salary someone first mentioned.

Is it illegal for them to resign?

Potvalor:
Yes, I can also confirm this. Entry-level engineers at Dangote Refinery earned around ₦400K gross per month. Some had no staff bus privileges or other perks either. I know an entry-level mechanical engineer working there who tried to switch to a top FMCG multinational earlier this year because of the poor welfare conditions. That’s why I can’t put all the blame on the 800 9ja staff for joining PENGASSAN because they really should’ve been paid more and offered a better welfare package (at least to match the Industry and Company’s status).

As for the five-year salary severance package, that’s mostly just a rumor. And even at that, the claim was that it’d be paid monthly, not as a lump sum, possibly with a clause to stop payment once they secure another job before the period ends. So let’s take it easy with the assumptions brother .

Did they not know the salary before joining?

Just posted my thoughts on the Ellah Lake acquisition

https://ngxforum.com/thread/47/ellah-lakes-plc-ellahlakes?page=1&scrollTo=376

megawealth01:
Una don start chasing my PZ?

When PZ was begging for less than 35 on Tuesday nobody chase that bae

And we are not selling

dapix:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45069_P_Z_CUSSONS_NIGERIA_PLC.-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_SEPTEMBER_2025.pdf

PZ is fully back from losses!!!!!!!!!!

Posted my thoughts on this PZ result. You can login, read and comment

https://ngxforum.com/thread/85/pz-cussons-nigeria-plc-cg?page=1&scrollTo=367

ositadima1:
I am not sure that they were "making huge margins before and that margins have now dropped significantly after listing to the ngx". Sometimes, we hold beliefs that may be incorrect and then use them as the basis of our arguments.

Now, let’s look at the facts and some estimations:
MTNN was listed on the NGX in May 2019. I checked their financials prior to that, since the NGX portal usually keeps at least one financial year before listing. In 2018, they made about ₦1 trillion in revenue, ₦140 billion in profit, and had about ₦200 billion in shareholders’ equity. Debt was also relatively low at about ₦140 billion. This doesn’t reflect the kind of drastic margin changes you are claiming.

Then there’s the issue of the repatriation of funds, which the Senate at the time claimed was $13.9 billion between 2006 and 2016 (an accumulated figure over those years), later narrowed down to $8.1 billion. Assuming an average exchange rate of ₦170/$ during that period (a conservative estimate, since the actual average was lower), $13.9 billion converts to about ₦2.36 trillion. Dividing that across the 11 years (2006–2016) gives an average of roughly ₦214 billion per year. Again, this does not suggest drastic margin changes.

Earning about ₦214 billion per year with low borrowing—especially in the early years before Glo entered the market, when MTNN enjoyed higher rates and aggressive charging patterns—indicates they were consistently profitable. In light of this, I don’t think MTNN is manipulating their books as you are insinuating. But if you have facts or clear assumptions that suggest otherwise, feel free to bring them forward.

Never let the facts get in the way of a good a story

emmanuelewumi:
It was reluctantly listed.

Listing was part of the agreement for them to settle the issues they had with FGN..


Because they were repatriating profit to South Africa might also be another reason why they are highly leveraged.

Lafarge Africa was in Nigeria for about 60 years, but never invest heavily in Nigeria busy repatriating profit to France now they are playing catch up with Dangote Cement and BUA cement who are younger than Lafarge in the industry.


Same with Mobil Oil, Total Energy (down stream), they enjoyed subsidy windfall from 1993 to 2023, but never had a reserve which they could use to build a refinery in Nigeria, with the coming of Dangote Refinery and end of fuel subsidy, they will struggle for survival and profitability

They are going the way of the dodo

GeneralDae:
I also don’t buy the argument that floating allows a currency determine its true value. So called true value is what marketers and investors are willing to price it at at that time and must not necessarily be determined because you floated or did not float. Governments float however, in order not to drain their reserves because like in the filling station example, people no longer see the need to queue at filling stations when the price at black market is thesame and you are likely to get it faster.

My analogy may not be 100% similar but I used it to highlight the similar market forces at play.

You are right that demand for dollars reduced because it’s high but when I view our trade data, it hasn’t been that significant. For instance, compare imports of manufactured goods and raw materials in Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 or even Q4 2022 (Q4’s generally see increased imports) to Q2 2025. I don’t see that significant drop in imports but I would do the calculation for you.

Nobody cares if you buy the argument or not. The rest of your post just shows you don't know what floating the currency means

megawealth01:
We hope it's not the colour red stew sha

You see say all of una confuse.

thebargainhunte:
Rice and stew na

Ok, that makes it clearer

Agbalowomeri:
Everywhere stew
GenZ language

You know wetin e mean?

thebargainhunte:
https://nairametrics.com/2025/09/23/mpc-cuts-mpr-by-50-basis-points-to-27/ very soon e go stew for ngx

What do you mean by stew?

GeneralDae:
50 bps cut. Cardoso, na man you be.

@awesomeJ you were spot on.

Abeg where link?

jonnysessy:
The guy is a clown. Such write up is needed to ease the tension in this NGX market. The banking stocks humbled me today.

There is tension in the market?