Anopheles:
TLC:


MacBook Air 2020. M1 processor. X 6
256/8gb. Silver

Brand New, never been activated.
Laptop only


389k each (McKinney, Texas)

I want this. In Lagos.
How do we proceed?

JentleJosh:
Pls HMU if you have a 2017 macbook pro with a bad screen/display for sale? � should be space grey or silver.

How many inches. I have a 15” for sale

The Government has borrowed 10 trillion via “ways and means” from the CBN and that has not even been added to the Debt stock.

https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/dmo-finalizes-plan-to-restructure-cbns-n10trn-overdrafts-to-govt/

The dollar shortage also seems to be affecting banks. Segun Agbaje of GTB is saying banks don’t have enough dollars again.
https://nairametrics.com/2021/09/16/nigerian-banks-dont-have-enough-dollars-to-fund-acquisition-of-shell-assets-in-nigeria-agbaje/

The handwriting is on the wall. My only reason for still keeping Naira is the plenty loans the government is taking. With about $7B in loans coming in, CBN will have enough firepower to defend the Naira.

Theflint1:
Interesting idea but Nigeria isn't a country where people want to stay. What happens when these people start to japa. These people being federal government workers and private middle class employees.

The bulk of the work still lies with the government, or gutsy private business owners who can arm-twist the government into behaving.

People outside the country can still pay the balances on their mortgage. Why would they want to default??
But even if they do, there would be a foreclosure process. The property are in the country so the credit is guaranteed anyways.

NgHotGirls:
Before you leave the bank or dsy jack Robinson

Not true. I transferred from my USD foreign account 3 days ago. It has not reflected up till now.

Still waiting for my payment from Clickfarms.

Why is no one talking about the $25Billion CBN overdraft that the government wants to convert into debt?
The debt was taken without any linkage to Capital/Infrastructure expenditure. No explanation of how it was spent.

Debt to Revenue ratio is 80%. Is this not economic recklessness and are we not walking into a currency crisis?

Lazyyouth4u:


Let me play devil’s advocate here

So you decide to buy shares in a REIT (instead of buying a property) and you are getting dividends from the shares. Cool stuff. But then you need cash for another project and decide to sell your shares but the share price has seriously fallen or you can’t even find buyer for the shares.

Wouldn’t you have been better off with a property in your name in a decent location where everything is within your control and stock market forces do not determine what you get if/when you decide to sell?

I’m not saying one is better than the other o. Abeg o. Na just realistic question I dey ask o

Selling stock is more liquid and efficient.
Good luck waiting for months before a property is sold. Buyers are also bargain hunters.
Also, you'll pay agent 5% agent commission etc.

danboy1234:
I REALLY NEED TO LEARN THIS BINANCE...... WHO CAN HELP ME OUT HERE PLS... I PUT 20K IN MY BIINANCE ACCT YESTERDAY BUT I DONT KNW HOW TO TRADE

How did you fund your account/put the money?

Tobex4realTobex234:
Summary of the paper for those that do not want to read it. CBN banned cryptocurrency because:

1. It's untraceability and anonymousity makes it viable for terror financing and money laundering.
2. Other countries have also banned it e.g China, Canada.
3. It's speculative and can lead to loss of capital.
4. It has no fundamentals as an investment instrument.
5. It has no hope as a payment method, can't replace FIAT.

China banning Bitcoin is misleading. The Chinese government has over 550K BTC which it has refused to sell (Around 6% of bitcoin supply).
Some people are of the opinion that Bitcoin will be the international currency for trade settlement after US dollars.
Won't hurt Nigeria to take a position too.

Hi Everyone,

How do you buy in meristem? I tried buying 100k worth of stock and they want to charge me extra 8-9k in fees.
Is this normal?

ositadiima1:


It lost money in 2019.

I think the strategy needs some tweaks.

I will post results tomorrow, I have been very busy today.

#systematic_trader

Alright.
I also think it would lose money in 2018.
March-December last year is basically lowest to highest.

Anyways, can you share the NSE historical data on Kaggle, CSV or sql.
Make I test with Machine learning.

erifeoluwasimi:
Ahh... I don't know why the government never come out Clean on any issue. The students infected are over 20 students. My sister is one of them.

Hey, my sister is also one.
She’s a nursing student at LASUCOM.
Are they safe? What is the next step?

ositadiima1:


I am not going to go into the details regarding the equation that outputs the RSI values, it is quite well documented online. For u guys that like books you can check out 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' by J. Wilder himself. In there you will find the RSI and other indicators developed by the author.

With a python script I was able to run a few tests and deciphered a few things.

The RSI possesses predictive powers, but, you have to dig deep to get to it.

I will not be posting detail results this time maybe later.

These set of parameters made ok returns in my back test:
1. I used the standard 14 day period to compute the RSI
2. Buy when RSI goes to 30 or below (Number 3 must be true for this to be true).
3. Buy only if the volume traded on the previous day was 20,000,000 or above (It doesn't matter what stock it is).
4. At least a 90 days holding period after stock purchase. You need huge discipline for this, their will be ups and downs.
5. Invest same amount on each trade i.e N500,000 or what ever. (Don't worry, trades matching this criteria will be very few)

Some results:
1. Stock data: March, 2020 to December, 2020
2. In total 20 trades: 18 winning trades and 2 losing trades.
3. Used 500,000 per trade
4. Total turnover was 10,000,000
5. Profit after trading fees 3,894,000

In fact, I will be adopting this strategy after a few more tests

#systematic_trader

Can you do this same analysis for 2019?

Lazyyouth4u:


Hit the report button that what rule was broken? I know say na likes you dey find. Make i dash you one. Btw, go ahead and do the needful na. Like I give two fvcks...

Thread class monitor, how many of the comments on this thread lately are related to Tbills? People are here posting all sorts of random and irrelevant stuff but na my own dey tickle your fancy. See as I just dey look you

You are actually breaking rule 10 of Nairaland which reads:

“ Don't violate the privacy of any people e.g. by posting their private pics, info, or chats without permission.”

ositadiima1:




You are probably right. Attached bellow are the results. I used the smaller morgan capital sample data running from march to yesterday.

To clarify a few things,

1. I collect the closing prices on the first trading day of the month and subtract the closing price at month end.
2. I do that for all listed stocks, then I pick the 5 lowest performers.
3. On the next month, I buy these stocks at the beginning of the month and sell at end.
4. I stake 200k equally on each selected stock.
5. Repeat the process over and over.
6. To make the automation more realistic, I also implemented trading charges. (1% from buy and 1% from sell)

Compared with buy and hold it didn't perform as well, while some stocks have netted over 80% in returns this strategy made only 17.7%. Maybe it will need a few tweaks here and there.

I also ran same test on the larger data set and I was only able to double the starting 1 mil by the end of the 8 years (2012 to 2020). I didnt post the results here because of the size of it.

Note: the whole thin was automated with a python script, it took me 2 hours, sha, to debug certain aspects of the code that were malfunctioning.

Hey Ositadima, Is this data publicly available?
Please help with a link

Donbrig:
I think this new proposed bills by CBN won't be more than 4 or 5%. CBN had learnt a great lesson that some Nigerians will still dump their money with them even at a negative rate. Because surviving in the real sector in present day Nigeria is more than a tug of war.

I don't think the proposed special bill is for the public. Based on the CBN circular, the bill is meant for banks with huge deposits more than the regulatory CRR requirements.
So the banks can earn something on their hitherto sequestered deposits.

ultron12345:


Hmmm... This is a good point you raised oo.
Nigeria wouldn't be able to increase capacity just like that because of OPEC quotas. Such increase will even cause a fall in prices.

Well, I think Nigeria should go ahead and ramp up production. If opec wants production cuts, those cuts should be targeted at the richer members like Saudi Arabia and UAE. Saudi Arabia has 30M people with quota of 11MBPD while Nigeria with 200M people is given quota of 1.9MBPD. The UAE with 9M people has production of 3.5MBPD. Which kain rubbish be that?

Hopefully, another war breaks out in the Middle East soon so it can affects some oil production facilities there, reducing output from the region. Let us also pray against peace in Libya, before those ones increasing production. Another problem is this Biden. He will now go and make peace with Iran, remove all sanctions, and before you know it, Iranian oil is on the market. Hopefully, the Iranians refuse to return to the nuclear deal as a sign of respect to the murdered General.

OPEC only regulates export.
Dangote’s 650k barrels is local and not counted

TransAtlanticEx:
The reason dangote makes less margins in other african countries is due to lower purchasing power of their people because they have higher taxes over there and all sorts of levies that make basic commodity expensive and mostly out of the reach of their impoverished masses.
You people will be here spreading false conspiracy theories and utter stupidity.
Don't even dare quote me if you've never been to those countries personally.
And dangote is leading is central Africa already,stop talking trash.

Hmm, could it be a combination of all the factors?
1. Cheaper imports are allowed in those countries
2. Significantly less population in those countries compared to Nigeria
3. Lower purchasing power

The price of cement in Ghana is around $6.2 (2900 Naira at open market rates). People keep saying cement is cheaper in other countries but the difference is not so significant.

awesomeJ:


There's the greed aspect too.

How do we explain Dangote Cement produced here from almost free stones selling for 2800 per bag. They produce it here, transport it further to other west African countries and sell it there for about half the price? how does that make sense?

Check Dangote Cement results. They have close to 50 gross margins from their Nigerian operations, but less than 30% pan African. Why the disparity?

We used to produce about 6m tonnes of rice, and they managed to sell at 13000 per bag before border closure, now we're hearing that with all the intervention, the production is now over 8m tonnes, but price is over 25k, simply because borders are closed, so they see opportunity to exploit, because to them, this is the opportunity to make a killing let them make the most before government changes policy, that's their thinking when it should have been how to improve quality.
Thesame mentality that will make an elected official think about how to amass the most, cos na opportunity. let him amass before time runs out. when he should be thinking on how to best represent those that elected him.

The points you've raised about cost of production, economies of scale and all are very very true. But there's also a funny greedy/exploitative nature some Nigerians exhibit.

Apart from cost of fuel, and transportation, most other input for cement cost little or nothing. it shouldn't cost more than 1500 per bag.

There was a time during GEJ when. the government met with Dangote or maybe all cement manufacturers now, and they crashed the price from around 1800 to 1400.

The beauty of free-market capitalism is that it is self-correcting.
I believe if the local producers of rice are really making abnormal profits. They will put more efforts into increasing supply. Other people will see the huge profits and enter into the same business.
This boosts local production and jobs. More importantly, when supply increases, prices will naturally fall.
Closing markets to drive down prices is not good. Seems to me like a temporary solution to a long-term problem. Long term solution is to increase local supply.

TransAtlanticEx:
It is impractical to smuggle sugar and flour into Nigeria oo bros.Instead sugar is smuggled out of Nigeria.
You cant smuggle sugar into Nigeria and pay duty for cotonou and smuggling expenses to Nigeria plus very high cfa now and be cheaper than Dangote and BUA them.
So it is why I was wondering how border closure helped their business.

I think Dangote imports sugar-cane/raw materials from Brazil.

TransAtlanticEx:
There are better ways to curb the naira than paying high interest in the debt market.
Also,a 3 year delay in naira depreciation will help a lot because by then Dangote refinery must have come up and crash the import of petrol and its derivatives,hence more fx to defend the naira.
What I would do if I was CBN governor is give you high interest rates now to tie your money for 3 years so that by then Dangote and other refinery must have started operation and i must have built my reserves very well,
I will continue build my reserves for 2 more years and stop paying you high interest and also not defend the naira immediately so that the naira you made from my time of desperation(high interest payment which is now) will be wiped by inflation(this is what happens to all the "free naira" you asked me about)
Then I start defending the naira after you(debt buyers) must have gone wretched
Have I not solved your problem like this?

Delaying Naira Devaluation is what the Government is doing now, there are multiple exchange rates. But are the forex reserves increasing?

Funny that this your strategy seems to be what Emefiele has done since 2016. He delayed devaluation, increased reserves, encouraged foreign investors who are now stuck.
What do you mean wiped out by inflation? The Naira is still with them and they are looking to take it out now.

TransAtlanticEx:
A lot of you don't understand how things work unfortunately.
What causes imports to be more expensive?
Because fx has increased in price or naira has depreciated right?
Why did the naira depreciate?because fx is scarce so too much naira is chasing scarce fx right?
What if you can also make the naira scarce?Is is not with naira you'll use to buy fx?what if you don't have that naira to use to buy fx?
Don't that tell you that the naira will have more value because of this and in turn reduce inflation?
Curbing naira is a good way to fight inflation.

So the solution you are suggesting is to create an artificial Naira scarcity by increasing rates of Tbills?
What happens when those bills mature, you were trying to reduce supply but now have increased it?

Lazyyouth4u:

The bolded is not true. Low interest rates lead to more cash in the economy and worsens inflation. Lots of Tbills will mature shortly. Enough Naira will be in circulation. Also, on paper, people/businesses should be able to borrow more Naira from the banks at low interest rates. Leading to more Naira in circulation.

All the free Naira will be looking for where to park. Not everyone wants to go to the NSE. Some will start to spend that money to avoid losing to inflation. That will lead to increase in prices of some goods. Exchange rates will suffer as some people want to keep money in USD. Leading to more inflation as imports will be more expensive. Share prices will continue to climb to unsustainable levels as free Naira continue to enter NSE. All it takes is for some speculators to start cashing out or one big listed business to fail and boom, back to square one. It may even be a listed bank that may see increasing NPLs and report poor results. Triggering sell offs. God forbid sha.

In short, it’s not necessarily a good thing for an economy like Nigeria’s but I understand what the CBN is trying to do. They want people to spend that money. Just spend it and get the economy going. On paper, it sounds good. In reality, another story entirely.

Inflation in Nigeria is not caused by high cash in the economy but by pass-through of increased dollar prices of import to consumers.
I see your perspective, but I think that's a short term strategy which will compound the problem if implemented. My reason below:

Increasing T-bills rates will only absorb the Naira in circulation for a year. The problem will resurface the next year which will be worse. Compound their money over a few years and you are in trouble.

Low borrowing interest-rates is only on paper as you said. So count that out.

Pension funds are the one accumulating on NSE, they don’t rush to sell.

The only problem is that the free Naira will chase dollars, but better now than pushing it down to next year. In practical Economics, good things are usually painful

Grupo:


Ah! What's this? So if I buy, cbn will deduct from my capital rather than paying me interest?

Yes, You are basically paying CBN to help you keep your money at this point.
In a low T-bills regime, stocks should benefit.

From a macro perspective, crashing the rates may be good for the economy as less Naira is being produced. T-bills used to be free money for Nigerian banks.
The disadvantage is people will start to chase dollars with the Naira at hand

Treasury bills yield falls to -0.09.


https://nairametrics.com/2020/11/18/nigerian-treasury-bills-yield-falls-to-minus-0-09/

Was it manufactured in Nigeria ��?
If not, then there’s no reason to clap.
We’ll still have to import with Dollars. Not creating jobs and not good for our economy

Averaged 32% on my investments this year.
Time for me to hold cash and patiently wait for next bear �.