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codedcoder:


No, not Poland PR , the plan is to move to Germany from Poland in the next one year. I got a job in Germany in 2020 but could not secure appointment with the embassy in Nigeria to apply for visa. No once I get to Poland I would have access to more Jobs since I would be living in the EU and from there I can move to Poland or Portugal. As you know once you lived in EU for five years you can get PR

Whatever decision you take. Kindly update us in retrospect. Some of us are in similar situation.

LordAdam16:


Not a bad plan IMHO.

Per investment, I think Ahib's suggestion in your OG thread is good. Buy an apartment block, keep one unit for yourself, but have a property manager offer it up for short-term rentals.

That said, looking at global macroeconomics, you should exercise extra care before pulling the trigger on anything. A recession is on its way. Which means those flush with cash will have lots of assets to purchase at cut-prices. From stocks to real estate. Keep that in mind.

Best of luck and safe travels!

-Lord

Link to Ahibs response please. I always liked his perspective on investing.

Stan2330:

Risevest

What I have learnt is to be careful of platforms that promise a certain rate of return .
There is no government bond that currently yields 15% in foreign currency so I'll be careful. Risevest also invests and manages stocks on behalf of their customers. No investor in US stocks had a good 2022, even worse for those who invest in Crypto and tech stocks. Yet, Risevst posted positive returns to customers.

I started using Risevest some years ago when the returns were around 8%. Now that I see 15%, I am suspicious and just pulled out. I have been taught to dislike free lunch.

The return of money trumps the return on money.

l

Mpeace:
TB wey go soon default?

Do you mean Treasury bills? If yes, why do you think the Nigeria gov will default on it's own issued currency?

Wapgod:

If anyone can help me, I will appreciate.

I don't know why you'd want to do this, but an option is to find a majority owner and negotiate off-market.

Coolcash1:


Yours truly entered at N16.70 . Pull back expected at 200EMA on WTF. Na from there we go load up again upon confirmation

Chief, What is 200EMA on WTF?

virginprincess:
Such a naughty old man.

Blaming the victim

The FMN link shared above doesn't seem to be getting latest updates.

For anyone interested in watching, the DMO updates this page
https://www.dmo.gov.ng/fgn-bonds/eurobonds-trading

I am still looking for apps that let me invest in Eurobonds AT MARKET PRICES. Not mumu funds that may not be transparent.

ernie4life:


Send me a PM

Done Boss.

BabsO2:


He has been alerting about the decline since long and been doing his best to execute existing CBN policies for fx earning through export drive and import substitution. And shouted earlier this year that NNPC is remitting nadding o. And there was a little back and forth from NNPC. Now the new NNPC has kuku come out saying their new way now is not to credit CBN reserves but keep everything. And if they declare a profit it will still not go to CBN reserves but I think finance ministry. So Emefiele cannot keep mum with this new twist. He needs to start shouting so that people go hear.

Does he not know politicians only respond to problems if they are affected?
How can you print money out of thin air every month and hand it over to them freely. Yet still, expecting them to pay attention to stop crude oil theft.

richforever123:


I read the article, it never said local-issued Cedis bonds were affected, worst case the Government can print more cedis to pay back, but they cannot print International Currencies

Nairametrics did not report the full story. Printing more money to repay bondholders will increase money supply, they have decided to tell investors to forfeit some interest returns (which is a kind of default)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-24/ghana-proposes-losses-for-eurobond-holders-in-debt-restructure

mymadam:
Ghana’s international bondholders could lose as much as 30% due to debt restructuring

Ghana’s international bondholders could lose as much as 30% due to debt restructuring

Ghana said it will ask holders of its international bonds to accept losses of as much as 30% on the principal and forego some interest payments.

This is in line with the country’s debt-sustainability plan which it is working out in a bid to meet the requirements for a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

This was disclosed by John Kumah, the Deputy Finance Minister, during an interview with a local radio station.

Contradictory move: Interestingly, the confirmation by Kumah is coming four weeks after President Nana Akufo-Addo vehemently rebuffed speculations that some investors may lose money due to the ongoing negotiations...

Continue reading at: https://nairametrics.com/2022/11/25/ghanas-international-bondholders-could-lose-as-much-as-30-due-to-debt-restructuring/

This is a reminder to all sovereign bond holders. Even governments can default and you may lose money.
In this case, both Eurobond and local-issued Cedis bonds were affected.

Agbalowomeri:


I also saw RSI-Index divergence, a powerful leading indicator last upper week ago but as na night school I attend, I no wan jump like puma make market no use me do asun like Saudi Arabia use Messi

The major indicator for me is always the MPR. If interest rate goes up, i expect stocks to go down based on that.

igbizen:

Ironically, our smartness keeps us all down…we think we can outsmart other Nigerians by buying dollars and changing it back to naira when it goes up. The local farmers and local traders are also increasing their prices…who be fool now?

The person who holds dollars continue to benefit from his hedge. We either pick emotions or economics, not both.
Holding Naira for 100% of your wealth does not make you more patriotic. In fact, I think you are not only hurting yourself but also subsidizing the economy and enabling the thieves at the CBN who have made it their mandate to fund all government deficits by printing Naira.
Printing money is akin to the government putting money in your pocket and taking part of it.
Excessive printing of money as currently being done by the central bank is the unpatriotic action here, and and private individuals should protect themselves. Deficit spending/printing money started in 2015. It is like drugs, the govt. will find it hard to stop as you'll see.
Why is it that this government is not solving hard problems like subsidy, crude oil theft etc Have you ever seen someone who gets money free go back to working hard?
All the three frontrunners of presidential election have USD exposures. Should anyone be more patriotic than our incoming presidents?
If you like, hold 100% Naira. It may not be a bad idea, but don't insult others.

Agbalowomeri:


My response was directed at your mention of R, SQL & Python. I am sure you don't need these if the aim is technical and fundamental analyses. From experience, the simpler we keep this, the better the outcome.

On GTCO, at least in the short-to-medium term you cannot go wrong at this price. In the long-term, one is uncertain how the company would optimise the HoldCo structure, just like the foreign investors who are pulling out.

I wonder how the supposed foreign sellers are able to repatriate their capital. I suspect the major factor may be that they are buying T bills now that rates are good - which may be more liquid for when they get a chance to get their Naira into USD.
What I’m learning here is that monetary policy rates has more effect on the performance of stock market than any other thing.

ernie4life:


Depends on the investment house you are speaking to

Please, do you know any investment house that accepts less?
i-invest app has some but the yields are not as good.

sholatech:
I am m considering some Eurobond Purchase but bit confused on how to make a buy decisions as the banks only sent details indicating:

Bid Px, Ask Px, Bid % and Ask%. As an example, Republic of Ghana Jan 2027 with Bid Px at46 and Ask Px at 49.

Will appreciate a guide by the professionals in this house

I dont know so much so I’ll let the ogas comment.
Just that I won’t touch any Ghana bond right now with a 10-foot pole. The risk of default is super high.

Dum20:


Oga I disagree with you that nigerians are not trained.

The asians provide a cheaper alternative to labour.

The chinese are ready to live 12 in a container and on site. They will not disturb you for transport money or other associated expenses. If they mess up, they are sent home to their country unlike a nigerian that will sue you in his own country.

Go to the middle east and everywhere in the world, the pakistanis, indians, chinese dominate those type of work.

Look at the story coming out concerning the world cup in Qatar.

The highest number of immigrants to Canada are indians and Chinese.

It is not a nigerian thing.

NIgerians are hardworking and industrious

Ok.
Do you think the Indians, Chinese love to work in such horrendous conditions or sell their labor for cheap? India and China each have over hundreds of billions in USD reserves each. Why are they not spending the money so their people don't have to work hard in tough conditions?
All the good things we use in our own country are produced in those countries where labor is cheap. Do you think the citizens of those countries don't want to enjoy life too?

It is simply because as a country/ human, you need to be competitive. Unless you have a lot of money like the Arabs, you need to be competitive to industrialize.
If Indian labor is cheaper in Nigeria than local Nigerian labour, It simply means we are not serious or ready. The advantage China had to lead the world in manufacturing was their cheap labour.

@ololufemi had said Nigeria labor is cheap and we should produce. Now do you see the issue. It is really not cheap in comparison.
There are four factors of production, which one is our edge as a country? What exactly is Nigeria's advantage to become a productive country?

ololufemi:


I'm not sure that China will allow its currency to appreciate because it would directly impact the pricing mechanism of their goods and services in comparison with other producers of such products and services for the world. Such an appreciation will lead to a decline in demand for their products and a shift towards other competing economies that can produce them.at a cheaper price.

The production of goods and services at significantly reduced prices is where I think Nigeria ought to invest heavily to benefit the people and the economy. Labour is significantly cheap in Nigeria and the potential for creation of production and service hubs is massive.

Labour is cheap in Nigeria but not readily available as they are not trained. I'll explain:

Dangote needed about 30k workers to build his refinery, he had to import 11.5k foreigners (mostly indians) and pay them with USD. We have many unemployed people in Nigeria but they are useless since they don't have basic vocational training.
Blue collar workers may be laborers but they need some 6 months -1 year training. The Pakistanis and Indians are the ones in construction all over the world and they are remitting money back to their home countries.
Same thing with the Lekki deep port, the transatlantic gas pipe project, railway projects, BUA refinery (which BTW is currently importing foreign welders) and tens of smaller projects around the country.
We are not the Saudis or Arabs who have enormous wealth and can decide to only do white collar supervisory work. We need to be able to grind and do the hardwork ourselves like the Chinese did.

GreatEko:


It is actually a two way system here. Naira is easily convertible to CFA at major points (Abokis, Seme, Idi-Iroko, and many markets in Benin). You can even pay for some things in Naira there. Same goes for other Countries using CFA as their legal tender. Naira can also be directly exchanged for Ghana Cedi and SA Rand.

However, it is a black market rate people will be given for the conversion.

At Idi iroko border, the exchange rate is derived from the dollar value of both currencies. Dollar is still the unseen benchmark, if you want to see this in play, notice the rate of Naira to CFA falls when Naira falls to the dollar.

ositadima1:


Not really, d so called "3-way" system is more efficient than "2-way" system. Imagine the headache if we had to source all different kinds of currencies when we want to do international transactions, the standardization problems that will come up. Except Africa can replace dollars with unified currency doing 2-way with all ur neighbors is not a great option.

I agree with this.
Imagine holding Naira as reserves and it is devalued by 50% every few years, lol. Your sweat and hardwork is gone.
The 2-way system will be the end of globalization as everyone will want to maintain trade surpluses with their trading partner.
Maintaining reserves in each of all currencies around the world just sounds chaotic

First, I do not agree with Rabbi's first call that dollar will crash to Naira. I will only begin to take naira serious:
1. when fuel subsidy is removed (then you have a serious economy)
2. Or oil exports is increased to more than 1.5M barrels daily
3. Or when the CBN stops printing new money for the FG to spend (Over 700 billion new nairas in September alone)
4. Dangote refinery is another factor I am looking at that may help the country

For a country that has about $500M Eurobond due in July and has no option but to debit foreign reserves. How can Naira appreciate long term?

Just a thought to encourage people here..

With the coming onboard of the Dangote Petrochemical plant. Raw materials for making acids, plastics and other products should be easier and more affordable.
Engine oil production should also be easier once refinery comes onboard.

Geovanni412:


I take God beg you - don't do that. It will bounce back in a week or two max. Just relax and have patience. Buy more dollars sef now - there is no economic policy supporting this move.

Let them sell biko. Some of us want to mop.

Hi everyone,
Is there anyone with an address in Hong Kong?
I am buying four pieces of electric hardware that I want to get to Nigeria (13.2kg each).

seemples:


This is the huge dilemma! Please any clues on a better hideaway?

You can open a US based bank account on Payoneer or Wise.
If you fully want to diversify, buy a property in Dubai and get a golden residency. You can then open a bank account. You will face tough times during KYC but if you have nothing to hide, then you are fine.
I have never been debited for any fees or charges (except transfer) on my personal accounts.

CBN is continuing to print money for the government.
My theory is that as long as this reckless monetary expansion continues, Naira will keep losing value.

https://nairametrics.com/2022/11/04/ways-and-means-cbn-lends-government-additional-n749-billion-in-september/

chigo4u:

There’s real estate too.

I sold USD and some crypto in 2017 and invested in student housing around campus.
I have not only lost money due to devaluation but incessant ASUU strikes have decimated my rental income also (because students who are not in school don't pay rents).
To state the numbers, i have lost over 40% on that money in USD terms.
How has real estate in Nigeria helped you preserve your wealth?

RabbiDoracle:


With what is coming, everyone must file into stocks las las. Holding cash isn't an option anymore.

Severe inflation will finish cash and bond holders.

Food or equities. People must choose one or both.

It is interesting that you find stocks attractive at this time. When risk free returns are around 13-15%.
If you have 10M Naira today, what will you be buying?

aieromon:


Do you spend USD in Nigeria? What is the basis of your argument?

The basis of the argument is that we all have expenses in dollars. Your phone, clothes, Tv, laptop are not made in Nigeria. I could have bought a phone last year but I invested the money in Naira to grow it.
Now, the capital + returns are not enough to purchase the same phone even though my money has increased in Naira terms.
The aim of saving is to preserve wealth for future needs/wants. Naira has failed to retain value and most people now are skeptical of holding it as a store their wealth.
The wealth of the world is calculated in USD not Naira. As currency for world trade, wealth is calculated and expressed in USD. If you only held Naira, then your money is has lost value commensurate with the fall in Naira value.