PassingShot:


The rigging of then, when Buhari didn't even have agents in many polling units, cannot be repeated this time.

Secondly, GMB will get more than 60% of SW votes this time around. In 2011 he didn't get 30%.

Buhari will win most northern states by wider margin now than in 2011.

GEJ cannot increase his win margins in SS and SE this time around because they declared the maximum possible figure in 2011 already.

PDP/GEJ are not running helter skelter for nothing. All of these they already know.

Very intelligent comment.

I have serious doubts about Rivers and Imo but I'm so sure of Kwara and Nasarawa.
Buhari and Jonathan will share Ekiti, Ondo, Edo and Kogi.

God Almighty

egift:


#BabaWhileYouWereGone GEJ finally found his erection after six years of PATIENCE.

As GEJ cross legs so, e be like say his "something" was trying to embarrass him. He even tried to cover the naughty thing with his hand.

God willing, you will not even be re-elected. Another 4 years of a Jonathan administration is unimaginable.

Broken promises everywhere.

luvinhubby:
Is there anything like summary at all, who wan read that long epistle.

Summary:

Muhammadu Buhari is on track to win the 2015 Presidential elections with about 21.5 million total votes (see Figure 1), while Goodluck Jonathan will obtain about 18.5 million votes. The combined tally for the two candidates will average about 40 million votes. We assumed that the voter turnout would be about 58.1%, which is the average of the voter turnout percentages obtained in the last 4 elections held in the 4th republic (53.7% in 2011, 57.5% in 2007, 69.1% in 2003 and 52.3% in 1999).

Based on the survey results, we predict that Goodluck Jonathan will win the South East (65%) and South South (71%) geo-political zones, while Muhammadu Buhari will win in the North East (53%), North West (59%), North Central (57%) and South West (75%).

The survey completion period was intentionally delayed, and opened on December 19, 2014 after both major political parties – the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) had announced their Vice Presidential candidate selections.
by Malcolm Fabiyi & Adeleke Otunuga Feb 13, 2015
338 203 117

Muhammadu Buhari Buhari Support Organizations Summary of Results: A comprehensive electoral survey was conducted from December 19th to February 7th. Respondents were sampled using Facebook and electronic mail. Survey Platform was Survey MonkeyTM. A detailed overview of the survey methodology is described at the end of this paper. The survey questionnaire comprised of 42 questions covering the following topics: (a) demographic questions covering gender, educational attainment, income, region of origin, place of domicile and location at which voter’s registration was done (b) 2011 electoral choices (c) 2015 voting intent (d) respondents’ political views and (e) motivating factors for the choice of Presidential candidate.

The survey completion period was intentionally delayed, and opened on December 19, 2014 after both major political parties – the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) had announced their Vice Presidential candidate selections. This was done to eliminate any potential bias that could result from the impact that uncertainties about the choice of Vice Presidential candidates would have on respondents’ choice of President.

A critical challenge that an online-based poll offers is the possibility that results can be skewed based on an over-representation of respondents from certain regions. We controlled for this by analyzing the results on a regional basis based on where respondents registered for their voter cards.

Given that the survey allowed us to establish where respondents would be voting, it was possible to develop a detailed profile of voting behavior by region. This allowed us to develop insights into the likely scenarios that will evolve by region, and also enabled us to ensure that a high response in certain parts of the country did not unduly skew the predicted outcomes. Our ability to evaluate voter behavior on a regional basis also allowed us to evaluate the potential impact that low voter turnout or outright vote cancellation in the North Eastern part of the country might have on electoral outcomes. All analyses relevant to the elections were carried out only with respondents that were domiciled in Nigeria and had also indicated that they would be voting in the 2015 elections.


Projected Outcomes

Muhammadu Buhari is on track to win the 2015 Presidential elections with about 21.5 million total votes (see Figure 1), while Goodluck Jonathan will obtain about 18.5 million votes. The combined tally for the two candidates will average about 40 million votes. We assumed that the voter turnout would be about 58.1%, which is the average of the voter turnout percentages obtained in the last 4 elections held in the 4th republic (53.7% in 2011, 57.5% in 2007, 69.1% in 2003 and 52.3% in 1999).

Based on the survey results, we predict that Goodluck Jonathan will win the South East (65%) and South South (71%) geo-political zones, while Muhammadu Buhari will win in the North East (53%), North West (59%), North Central (57%) and South West (75%).

Given the possibility that the lingering Boko Haram crisis in the North East might prevent elections from holding in the states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (BAY), we explored the impact that the exclusion of these states would have on electoral outcomes. Our analysis suggests that the complete exclusion of the BAY states from the electoral tally will still result in a victory for Muhammadu Buhari. In the event that voting will not be able to hold in the BAY states (Borno, Adamawa, Yobe), the total expected votes from the North East will reduce from about 5.3 million to 2.6 million votes, and the projected national tally will be 20.1 million votes for Muhammadu Buhari versus about 17.2 million votes for Goodluck Jonathan. In either scenario, Buhari will likely win the presidential elections with about 54% of the total votes cast.

As we earlier indicated, the responses were analyzed based on the region of domicile of the respondents. Without this critical filter, a margin of victory of 62% would have been predicted for Muhammadu Buhari based on the raw data. We reiterate that by analyzing the data based on region of domicile, we were able to better ensure that the potential overrepresentation of certain regions in the respondents’ population did not skew the overall results. It is our view that some of the spot polling data that have provided outsized margins of victory for either of the major candidates, might benefit from filters to ensure that the sample population which the surveys are based on is representative of the regional (or state by state) composition of the country.


Figure 1: Likely electoral outcomes by region. General Muhammadu Buhari (GMB) is expected to carry 4 of the 6 geo-political zones, while Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) is projected to have dominant wins in the South East and South South geo-political zones

The factors that underline why Buhari will likely win

Our analysis suggests that the real story of the 2015 elections will not be so much about the scale of the likely victory in the presidential elections by Buhari, but about Goodluck Jonathan’s catastrophic loss of the 2011 coalition that propelled him to office.

The most crippling statistic for Goodluck Jonathan is that 47% of the respondents who voted for him in 2011 have indicated they will be voting for the opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 elections (see Figure 2). In contrast, Muhammadu Buhari will retain a staggering 96% of those who voted for him in 2011 (Figure 3), and further build on his voter tally by taking on the 47% of voters who supported Jonathan in the 2011 elections but have elected to defect to Buhari in the 2015 polls. The disaffection with Jonathan is deep and pervasive. Although 74% of all respondents indicated that they voted for Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, only 36% of respondents either strongly approved or approved of the job that he is doing as president (Figure 4).

When the reasons for candidates preferences are analyzed, the (anti)corruption stance of the candidate, is the primary driver of voter behavior (see Figure 5). This is despite the fact that corruption only ranked 5th amongst the key issues of concern to Nigerians (see Figure 6) – behind issues such as security, economic growth, jobs creation and power. It is not clear to us whether the issue of corruption was conflated by respondents to be an all-encompassing issue that affects other key areas of voter concern. This would be the case if respondents believed that the security challenges and the inability of the Nigerian military to effectively contain the Boko Haram crisis are linked with corruption. Similar sentiments that might blame lax economic growth on corruption and embezzlement of funds, could also potentially explain why corruption is taking on a central role in this electoral cycle. While the underpinning factors that have made corruption the primary driver of the 2015 elections are not very clear, the fact is that majority of voters (42%) are making their choice for president based on the corruption standing of the candidates, with a larger number of them (38% of all voters) selecting Muhammadu Buhari as the clear anti-corruption champion compared to 4% for Jonathan.

In trying to understand the factors responsible for Muhammadu Buhari’s surge in acceptability and favorability, there are two critical demographic insights worth considering and these have to do with religion and gender. While Muhammadu Buhari narrowly leads Jonathan amongst women voters (54% vs 46% - see Figure 7), he holds a dominant 2 to 1 lead amongst male voters (see Figure 7).

In a clear reversal of the 2011 polling results, Muhammadu Buhari also leads Jonathan amongst Christian voters (54% vs 46% for Jonathan – see Figure , while he maintains a 72% advantage over Jonathan amongst Muslim respondents (86% vs 14% - see Figure . The staggering reversal of fortunes for Jonathan will be better appreciated when the fact is considered that in 2011, he (Jonathan) won 85.5% of the Christian vote and 50% of the Muslim vote.

The survey results clearly demonstrate the remarkable erosion of Jonathan’s support base amongst Christian voters, and the massive decline in his strong showing amongst Muslim voters in 2011. The remarkable turnaround in the fortunes of Mr. Buhari among Christian voters can probably be best explained by the dampening role that Osinbajo’s choice as the Vice Presidential pick and the perceived support that Osinbajo’s candidacy has from Pastor Adeboye, has made on Jonathan’s erstwhile strong standing amongst Christian voters. While this religious vote swing is real, we wish to point out that when we posed the question regarding the impact that the choice of Vice Presidential candidate had on their voting preference, respondents indicated that it was not a strong factor in their decision making (see Figure 5).

When we analyzed the preference data based on the age of respondents, Goodluck Jonathan leads (63%) amongst voters under 24 years of age, while Muhammadu Buhari leads amongst voters 25 years and older (Figure 9) – underscoring the broadness of his appeal.

While the story might seem generally positive for Buhari and the APC, the survey results however reveal some deep issues that voters have with both candidates and parties. Nigerians do not view Buhari or the APC as being particularly strong on the economy and in job creation – which are amongst the top priorities of voters (see Figures 5 and 6). Should our results be validated and Buhari and the APC triumph at the polls, they can expect a short honey moon period, as voters will very quickly begin to expect to see results in the key areas of major concern - ending the Boko Haram insurgency, driving economic growth, tackling unemployment & job creation, and solving the lingering power crisis. Buhari’s mandate – if he wins, will not be to wage a war on corruption to the exclusion of the actual issues that matter to voters. He and his party, will have to deliver on other cogent issues.

Figure 2: 2015 presidential preferences of respondents who voted for Jonathan in 2011, showing a significant erosion of the incumbent’s 2011 winning electoral coalition

Figure 3: 2015 presidential preferences of respondents who voted for Buhari in 2011, showing the General’s strong retention of his 2011 voting base


Figure 4: Approval ratings for President Goodluck Jonathan


Figure 5: Reasons for Choice of Presidential candidate amongst all voters


Figure 6: Voter Priorities


Figure 7: The role of gender in the 2015 elections. Muhammadu Buhari holds a dominant lead amongst male voters


Figure 8: The role of religion in the 2015 elections. Muhammadu Buhari holds a dominant lead amongst Muslim voters and slightly edges Jonathan amongst Christian voters


Figure 9: Presidential preferences by age. Jonathan leads amongst the youngest voter group, while Buhari dominates across the older voting population


National Assembly Elections – Why the APC Will Likely Take Over the National Assembly

Figure 10: Intended voter participation levels in 2015 elections


Figure 11: Party preferences among all likely voters


Figure 12: Respondents who will vote for Buhari indicate a higher likelihood to participate in National Assembly elections


While about 96% of likely 2015 voters indicated that they would participate in the Presidential elections (see Figure 10), only 43% stated an intention to participate in the National Assembly elections. However, given that both elections will hold on the same day (formerly February 14th, now March 28th), the expected strong showing of the Presidential candidate of the APC and the broad national sentiment in favor of the APC (see Figure 11), it can be reasonably expected that the APC will sweep the National Assembly elections as well. We do not have any data to predict what the regional breakout of the votes will be.

When we analyzed the data to determine whether the supporters for either candidate intended to vote in the National Assembly elections, the data indicated that 52% of Buhari’s supporters and 33% of Jonathan’s supporters intended to participate in the National Assembly elections. When the total numbers are factored in, about 72% of voters that intend to participate in the National Assembly elections are those who will be voting for Buhari (see Figure 12).

We did not expressly ask respondents which candidates or parties they would be voting for in the National Assembly elections. However, given the stronger intended participation rates of Buhari supporters, the high preference expressed for the APC, and the fact that the elections for the National Assembly will hold alongside the Presidential elections, we predict that the Buhari wave will significantly enhance the chances of the APC in the National Assembly elections. Nigeria will likely see a Presidential and parliamentary sweep by the APC.


Survey Methodology

Facebook respondents were reached using the Facebook Ads features. The target audience was set to Nigerian-based users of Facebook, ages 18 and older. 100,611 unique individuals were reached through this medium, with 2,086 people taking action (click through) which resulted in 401 completed survey responses.

For the electronic mail derived sample population, representative e-mails for Nigerians were collated from various list serves. Mailing list sources were selected to represent a diversity of political views, ethnicities and religious affinities. Solicitation e-mails were sent to 2,025 recipients and 147 completed responses were received.

As at the time of completing the analysis discussed in this paper, a total of 548 complete responses were obtained. Of these, 460 of the respondents were domiciled in Nigeria. 358 Nigeria based respondents indicated that they intended to vote in the 2015 elections and only this subset of likely voters were used in the analysis. Based on the official number of 68.8 million registered voters in Nigeria, this number of intended voters will provide predictive outcomes with an estimated confidence level and interval of 95 ± 5.2%.

Potential Shortcomings of the Survey

As with any online based survey, there is a possibility for bias towards candidates whose supporters might have a broader affinity for technology, or more access to technology due to wealth. We did not find any inherent affinity for Muhammadu Buhari or Goodluck Jonathan in our sample population. Our review of respondents’ polling preferences in the 2011 elections and our region corrected results indicated that 74% of respondents had voted for Goodluck Jonathan in 2011.

Our results will at best underrepresent, and at worst completely fail to capture the prevailing views and sentiments of populations in the various regions who do not have access to electronic mail or the internet. Based on the fact that there is generally less access to these resources in the Northern parts of the country where Muhammadu Buhari has stronger support, there is a reasonable possibility that the projected results we have provided represent the lower bound of the scale of victory that Muhammadu Buhari will likely obtain at the polls.

6 weeks is an eternity in politics, and a lot can still change between now and the rescheduled polling date of March 28th. Our results are valid predictors, only for what might have transpired had the elections proceeded as scheduled on February 14th.

Key observations by the numbers

21.8% of respondents are unemployed, 28.8% are self-employed, while 49.4% indicated that they currently work for an employer

23% of respondents believe Nigerians are united

68% of Nigerians believe that Tribalism is the reason for the lack of unity, while 57% believe that the lack of unity is driven by religious differences

87% of respondents believe Nigeria should remain as a united country

18% of respondents registered to vote in their places of origin

60% believe the 2015 elections will be free and fair

64% of respondents disapprove of the work Jonathan is doing as President

88.2% of respondents have already received their voter cards

33% of respondents earn less than N30,000 per month


Disclosure:

The 2015 National Electoral Poll was not commissioned by any political party, or vested organizations and/or individuals in the Nigerian political process. Dr Malcolm Fabiyi holds a BSc (First class) degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of Lagos, an MBA from the University of Chicago and a PhD in Chemical Engineering from Cambridge University. Dr Adeleke Otunuga holds Bachelors (Philosophy) and Masters Degree (IRPM) from the University of Lagos, and a PhD in Management (Organizational Leadership) from the University of Phoenix. Both authors have previously written public articles in support of Muhammadu Buhari’s candidacy. However, this paper was compiled based exclusively on data received from respondents obtained by random sampling. We commit to providing raw data values from this survey to genuine academically motivated requests. Any inquiries regarding the survey should be directed to claypolconsult@gmail.com.
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Malcolm Fabiyi & Adeleke Otunuga

http://saharareporters.com/2015/02/13/poll-predicts-buhari-win-apc-sweep-national-assembly-elections-malcolm-fabiyi-adeleke

Bookmarked.

This Okupe is a great comedian and a great deceiver of GEJ.
Below is my own predictions.

More PVC's will be distributed before the elections.

Information available to 247ureports.com obtained through competent sources knowledgeable of the activities inside the executive offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission [INEC] indicates that the INEC executive team are operating under significant distress that may disrupt the smooth conduct of the upcoming 2015 general elections. The INEC Chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega and the eleven national commissioners including the Directors are at daggers-drawn over unresolved issues that threatens disenfranchisement of select geopolitical regions.



At the center of the brewing quarrel is what appears to be a growing suspicion from some of the Commissioners and Directors of southern extraction towards the INEC Chairman and the other Commissioners of northern extraction. The suspicion, according to one of the Commissioners who spoke to our reporter, is principally based on Professor Jega’s unexplained eagerness to adopt policies favorable to the expansion of the northern geopolitical region’s voting strength. The commissioner pointed to the botched attempt by Prof Jega’s at arbitrarily increasing the polling units in the geopolitical regions of the north. “We had to fight the Chairman to the point of shouting match”, explained the Commissioner who continued that the Chairman seemed “determined to increase the polling units, and would not listen to any of us at the several closed door meetings. Instead he told us that only a court decision will stop him from increasing the polling units”.


The INEC Chairman was unable to deliver on his arbitrary quest. After a month of internal struggles with his lieutenants, the INEC Chairman dropped the idea reluctantly and grudgingly. Prof Jega, as a result of his inability to carry out his agenda decided to shutout the protesting Commissioners responsible to faulting the agenda. “He stopped talking to them [commissioners from the south]”. The relationship among the commissioners took a regional face with the southern commissioners suspicious of the northern commissioners who appear to have formed a click with the Chairman – along religious lines.

The northern commissioners including the Chairman – are seven [7] in number while the southern commissioners are only five [5].

The cold relationship worsened with the commencement of the distribution of the permanent voters card [PVC]. The distribution, according to the commissioner led to near physical confrontation between one of Jega’s close ally, Dr. Mohammad Wali [Chairman of Tender’s Board] from Sokoto and one of the commissioners from the south. It was revealed that the ‘shouting-match’ ensued as the modalities for the distribution by the INEC was marshalled out to the agents on the field – instructing that the PVCs should be delivered to the various INEC offices at the Local Government Area headquarters for the registered voters to pick up/collect – with the presentation of a valid identification card. The southern commissioner discovered that the rules for the distribution for the PVCs were different for the northern geopolitical regions – the rules were relaxed to enable easy distribution of the PVCs to the populace.

According to the commissioner, the PVCs dispatched to Gombe, Kebbi, Zamfara, Bauchi, Jigawa, Sokoto, Yobe, Kano, Plateau, Nasarawa, Katsina and Kaduna [12 states] were accompanied by an agent of Dr. Wali. The PVCs were not delivered to the INEC officer at the local government headquarters – rather it was registered at the INEC office at the local government headquarters and then delivered to the local chiefs and local Imams to complete the distribution to the masses. The PVCs were then recorded as having been collected by registered voters. As at January 7, 2015, INEC data showed that 83% of the registered voters in the 12 states have collected their PVCs. [See table below]



In the remainder of the States where the PVCs were delivered/dumped at the INEC office at the local government headquarters for onward distribution – a much lower percentage of PVCs collected were reported. In Lagos, Edo, Abuja, Enugu, Anambra, Ogun, Oyo and Ondo, only 57% of the PVCs have been collected. [See table below]



When the commissioners and directors got wind of the development and what appeared a structured discrepancy on the part of the INEC Chairman and the commissioners working in cohorts with him, they cried foul. Some of the commissioners took their frustrations to the desk of the President through alternate means – warning the President that ‘something was eerie’ in the manner the INEC chairman was readying for the February 14 polls. According to the source, the group of concerned officers within the INEC were successful in getting their concerns across to the presidency. “The president was shocked and visibly angry in utter disbelief” said the source who continued that the president then ordered for an immediate update on the status of PVC distribution. “What he saw confirmed what the commissioners had told him”.

The commissioner went on to state that it was the concerned commissioners who advised the President to consider seeking for a postponement of the election date from February 14 to sometime in April – without subverting existing electoral laws. The commissioner claimed that they advised the President to seek for shift in date in order to properly distribute the PVCs in a fashion that would ensure that up to 90% of the PVCs are distributed to the registered voter. Presently, only 71% of the PVCs have been collected nationwide. Presently, 15.6million registered voters are yet to collect their PVCs.

Meanwhile, Jega remains adamant that the date of February 14 will not be moved. In a statement to Journalists on January 23, he indicated that the PVC distribution will continue till the eve of the presidential election. The INEC Chairman expressed worry over the attitude of many eligible voters who have failed to show up to collect their voters card noting that the Commission should not be blamed when voters fail to collect their PVCs. “Yes we can even allow for the distribution of PVCs up to the eve of election day which is February 13 2015 but it will be good for voters to come and collect their PVC as soon as possible”.

Jega’s insistence comes against suggestions from the security service chiefs and the national security adviser – over the slow pace of PVC distribution and its implications to national security. His insistence has become a point of concern to many within the security circles who had once viewed Prof Jega as an upright incorruptible personality who was expected to understand the sensitive and volatile political climate in the country presently. A retired service chief who shared his concern with 247ureports.com did not shy away from labeling the body language of Jega and his refusal to level the playing field across all geopolitical regions as “highly tribalistic and unbecoming of a man like him”

- See more at: http://247nigerianewsupdate.co/trouble-in-inec-jega-at-war-with-commissioners-directors/#sthash.pMYmJ2Lb.dpuf

simplistical:
I have not gotten my PVC yet

Please do. It is important that your voice is heard.

PDP can find a way of reducing APC's votes in the north east. Either by total cancellation of Election in the region or a substantial part thereof using present security situation as an excuse.

abujub:
Op, you did your best. all things being equal, GMB will carry the day come febuhari insha allah

This is a popular wish if the momentum is sustained.

Adminisher:


What is driving votes in the Middle Belt is not the old fear of the core north alone. The Buhari name is carrying a lot of votes just by itself. Please travel to the middle belt as well and get the attitudes to the Buhari name.

Yes, I agree with you on this.
Take Benue for example, the dynamic is changing with the defection of Otom and Gemade. The inability of the government to pay salaries for some months now will surely have effects on the ability of PDP to win the state. If you ask me, i think 2 senatorial seats are likely going to be won by the APC.

new2020:
OP let me help you a little. Nasarawa is not different from Plateau. Nasarawa was created out of Old Plateau state. This people are not core Northerners and hate to be labeled as such. Same goes with Niger state were majority are christian Nupes who don't align with core North. What is my point? Historically, Plateau, Nasarawa and Niger have voted for a Christian presidential candidate since 1999 except in the case of Yaradua; whom they chose over Buhari...lesser of two evil. Now Benue? What were you thinking to think APC will win Benue? Never. PDP will win all North Central states. You need to travel to NC and get the mindset, culture and attitude of these people towards core North.

Maku is not stupid to think he can win with Apga platform. He thinks so because he knows his people are not core Northerners and think differently. Remember Solomon Lar won old Plateau with an Igbo party.

In 2011, CPC got 64.03% and PDP got 31.54% in Niger state. So to project 70% for APC which is now a bigger and more accepted party and 30% for PDP is not bad in my opinion.
same pattern for Nasarawa CPC got 40.08% while PDP got 58.89%. And same goes for Plateau where CPC scored 25.27% and PDP scored 72.98%.

Adminisher:
BUHARI HAS WON ALREADY, EVEN EKITI, EDO AND KOGI ARE APC STATES BUT YOU HAVE MISTAKENLY PUT THEM UNDER JONATHAN.

It was deliberate. I tried to be a bit stringent and avoid undue optimism. This way, the worst case scenario would manifest.

My own take is

https://www.nairaland.com/2112577/2015-presidential-election-projections

PVC collection rates as at end of first week of January:

FCT 48.44%

South South 70.8%

South East 65.84%

South West 61.37%

North Central 69.67%

North East 62.01

North West 85.07%

If the PDP can mobilize more voters to go get their PVC especially in the southern states, the results can tilt in favour of PDP.
Note the very high percentage of PVC collection in the Northern parts

JudismphD:
Op in your dream. Keep the pipe dream alive. He go do u voooooom for eye negating those kangeroon projection of urs

Why not bring out your own projections. This is mine.
I want only positive contributions please.

As 2015 presidential election campaign reaches its crescendo, i look at possible scenarios in each state and came up with the projections attached.
1. I have assumed percentage scores for each candidates of the PDP and APC based on my observations of recent political events in each state.
2. I have used current voters registration figures released by INEC.
3. I have used PVC collection figures as released by INEC as at 7th January, 2015.
4. I have assumed voter turn out to be equal to the percentage PVC collected.
5. I have been as apolitical as possible.
I have come up with a result showing a very tight race between the two candidates of the PDP and the APC, which ended up with a narrow win for the APC candidate.

Doyin2:



My respect for GMB grew stronger after reading the constitution.He remained calm because he knew he had complied with the law of the land.

According to section 318 of the constitution:

"School Certificate or its equivalent" means

(a) a Secondary School Certificate or its equivalent, or Grade II Teacher’s Certificate, the City and Guilds Certificate; or
(b) education up to Secondary School Certificate level; or
(c) Primary Six School Leaving Certificate or its equivalent and -
(i) service in the public or private sector in the Federation in any capacity acceptable to the Independent National Electoral Commission for a minimum of ten years, and
(ii) attendance at courses and training in such institutions as may be acceptable to the Independent National Electoral Commission for periods totalling up to a minimum of one year, and
(iii) the ability to read, write, understand and communicate in the English language to the satisfaction of the Independent National Electoral Commission, and
(d) any other qualification acceptable by the Independent National Electoral Commission;

Gbam, Let them fid something else to say.
Beside, i prefer an illiterate GMB to a disgraceful PHD holder. Uniport must be ashamed of giving a PHD certificate to GEJ.

Thanks for the free information.

maestroferddi:
BENUE STATE: PDP 65% APC 35%

KOGI STATE: PDP 58% APC 42%

KWARA STATE: APC 67% PDP 34%

NASARAWA STATE: PDP 51% APC 49%

NIGER STATE: PDP 52% APC 48%

PLATEAU STATE: PDP 72% APC 28%

Predictions based on political structures on ground and not media propaganda, rally turnouts and sentiments.

You still dont get it!!!
In 2011:
Benue PDP got 66.31% and CPC got 10.47%

Kogi PDP got 71.17% and CPC got 23.53%

Kwara PDP got 64.68% and CPC got 20.16%

Nasarawa PDP got 58.89% and CPC got 40.08%

Niger PDP got 31.54% and CPC got 64.03%

Plateau PDP got 72.98% and CPC got 25.27%

These are the results when GEJ had so much going for him, Big politicians, religious and ethnic sentiments and so much goodwill.
Can he repeat these same results in these states in 2015?

meforyou1:
Op, u must high on cheap grass. PDP will disgrace APC in Niger

Yes, as PDP disgraced CPC (A relatively new party) in Niger state in 2011.
For your information, in 2011, PDP scored 31.54% and CPC scored 64.03%

enigmaotr:
You are right. Imagine Ajibola as their guber candidate? They will lose everything next month.

I have nothing absolutely to assess Ajibola's competence. I was waiting for PDP to put forward Belgore or Prof Oba but they failed.
As it stands, I have no governorship candidate to vote for in kwara.
i will only vote for Buhari in the presidential election. i'm not a party man, i only vote for competence regardless of your party.

I am from Kwara State and i agree totally with your analysis of kwara state. PDP is in total disarray in kwara with too many captains in one boat. You are however too generous to have given PDP 25% of the votes. If PDP score that 25%, i will clap for them.

Doctors don't write very clearly like this one.

Bookmarked for future reference. Thanks Abike.

Thanks.