₦airaland Forum

essentialone:
Hold well your ASO savings and loans. They may return soon to the market...

Na buy forde I dey hold am now as I no get option of selling. Or you want to buy?

essentialone:
3 COMPANIES THAT MAY SURPRISINGLY RETURN SOON TO THE STOCK MARKET ARE:

1) ASO Savings and Loans Plc
2) STACO Insurance Plc
3) Standard Alliance Insurance Plc

We watch and wait…

I pray they return o.
Still holding some bags of ASO savings and loans.

jonnysessy:
They announced N1.05k after their full result and i quickly decided to offload some of my holdings only for them to come out and announce a fantastic Q1 and the price begin to head up north. I just hope they will maintain the tempo throughout the quarter. Maybe, If I was patient enough could have benefited more. Patience remains a vital key in investment.

If you have studied the results quarter on quarter, maybe you would have acted otherwise.
Q4 2024 was good but the earlier quarters were affected by forex losses. And boom,they sustained the good performance coming to q1 2025.
They don't need to do anything extra to sustain the performance for the rest of the year.

aj8:
Those who need it to move, do so last minute with above 100k transact till it gets where they want it to be. Call it manipulation if you choose. Just follow the lead.

Yes the MM did it at the last minute.
I have got no complaints.

aj8:
New Common sense target for Betaglass is N93-N116.

We need someone to provide the needed 100k units to move it to the next level.

Sunrisepebble:
I was MH the stock at N23 with good intention. My actual TP for the stock is N60 based on historical PE of 6x but N35-45 is my conservative estimate.

Talking about vitafoam after the release of their q4 results cannot be termed MH.
MH is promoting stocks with no fundamentals.

Sunrisepebble:
Vitafoam!

One of my best with the results I have checked so far

emmaodet:
Total inventory rose to 152b from 74b, that is a 100% and which is 5X of net profit of 27.8b. That is worrisome.
Q4/24 eps shrink to 117k from 616k despite a 16% increase in revenue of 248b from 213.4b.
A meagre net profit of 416m from 248bb revenue - a 0.2% margin compared to 950m from 213b revenue prior year.

Culprits - Inflation

- finance cost of 9.96b from 4.57b prior year
- Admin cost of 19.2b from 15.2b prior year
- Cost of sales rose to 226b to generate 248b compares to 188b to generate 213b revenue prior year.

A 0.2% net margin is not encouraging and means the company may fall into negative any moment. It has no room to absorb shocks or unforeseen circumstances.

Keep it up bro.
Your effort is well appreciated.

Sunrisepebble:
It all depends on the fx gain component of their result. Which im yet to take a look at
On face value from an excel analysis someone sent me for final dividend, they believe
GT can pay N6, Zenith N4, UBA N2.50 and Access N2.05

Paying the amount you quoted here would mean a dividend yield of less than 10% when we have been used to a yield higher than that

Agbalowomeri:
They must pay N10 o else we carry placard

lol

robobo:
Chief what is your reasoning behind bolded?

Can zenith and GTB pay a dividend of N7 to N8

robobo:
and they can be for longerrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

what i would want to tease out of this discourse is what are the triggers to look out for that would help correct this anomaly/mispricing.

or what are the drivers/ factors that brought the said situation (anomaly/mispricing) 6 years ago? ? ? ? ? ?

I want to believe they will still be cheap for a long time unless they ramp up dividend payments to match their bogus earnings.
The sector has arguably been the one with best dividend yield in recent years but that might not be the case this year.

nosa2:
You don't seem to know the valuations Nigerian banks are trading at vs their historical valuations

Are Nigerian banks cheap at current price, yes.
Are they trading at their lowest historical valuation?,this I think is debatable.

The beauty of the market, while some are seeing bear others are seeing bull

currentprice:
from the angle of TA. banking index looking good to breakout.. I see banking stock likely do very well this quarter.

any idle cash can benefit from this... just look for any of the banking stock that underperforming relative to its peers.

anyway if what I saw on TA is correct, BULL may likely shows in the market as i dont expecting bank to move solo

this post is purely based on TA, may be my eyes is yet to get clear from the hangover stuff. pls consult BullBearMkt for clarification

Are we having the break out of the banking index or na bull trap

Redoil:
To provide some context, Chapel Hill Denham Nigeria Infrastructure Debt Fund is a closed-end investment fund that invests in infrastructure debt securities in Nigeria. The fund's objective is to provide regular income and capital preservation to its investors.

Now, regarding your observations:

1. Dividend payments: The fund's dividend payments of 4-5 Naira per share, four times a year, translate to a relatively high dividend yield. This could be attractive to income-seeking investors.
2. Return on investment: With an estimated annual return of 19%, it's possible that investors could recoup their initial investment within 4-5 years, assuming consistent dividend payments and no significant changes in the fund's net asset value.
3. Online stock price reporting: It's puzzling that online stock price reporting platforms don't seem to have this fund listed. This might be due to various reasons, such as:
- The fund's relatively small size or market capitalization.
- Limited liquidity or trading activity in the fund's shares.
- Technical issues or data feed problems with the online platforms.
4. CSCS website listing: The fact that the fund is listed on the CSCS (Central Securities Clearing System) website, but below Chams, suggests that CSCS might have more comprehensive or up-to-date information on the fund.

To better understand the situation, you may want to:

1. Verify the fund's listing status on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) website.
2. Contact the fund's management company or registrar to inquire about the dividend payment history and any potential issues with online stock price reporting.
3. Check with online stock price reporting platforms to see if they can provide more information on why the fund is not listed.

the reason i posted this here is because this stock has been paying certain strange dividend which is very on usual in the nse while transpower, geregu, transhotel will be paying 1% per year CHDNIDF will be paying 19-20% per year

I have not been able to find much on their financial performance except for the dividends they paid.
I will appreciate it if you can post any one you have like AFS that actually shows their performance.

ositadima1:
But that is not trading; that is an example of a fool and his money soon parting. In TA books, money management is a serious topic. The good ones emphasize that trading is a probability game (that requires you to have a statistical edge). It’s not guaranteed, but with high-probability moves, you limit your downside by using stop losses. All real technical analysis discussions cover stop losses and position sizing—there are entire books dedicated to these topics. I’ve read a couple by Van K. Tharp, who often talks about R multiples. He suggests setting your R (maximum risk) before entering any trade (not after).

The people you mention give TA a bad name (exhuding illusion of knowledge). They continue to misinform the public even today. They go on the radio to talk about forex, claiming it’s profitable and pushing their systems, but I haven’t heard any of them discuss the downsides.

Just as you use a margin of safety in FA, TA relies on money management and position sizing. All TA is probabilistic, and to some extent, FA is too. Even a "wonderful business" can be affected overnight by government policies, natural disasters, disruptive innovations, and more.

I agree with you 💯 here.
The problem I have identified with TA and FA is actually about those promoting it.
Someone Will be claiming to be using TA and will be talking about putting 50% and even 100% of fund in a single trade ignoring the basic rule of risk management.
Same goes for some FA promoters who will be telling folks that a stock must deliver a certain percentage of returns within a specific time frame as if they own the company.

nosa2:
I got in earlier but if I get money and valuations remain where they are, I'm buying more.

Remember that price and valuation are not the same thing. I am looking at valuation not price

👍

nosa2:
You won't see these banks for less than what you are seeing now. Either you buy now, not higher or don't buy at all

I think one should have taken position before now.
If I am to buy any of the banks now, my decision would mostly be influenced by TA more than FA.

HesInMe:
Careful. Banks aren't typically valued using price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and almost always trade at a deep discount to market P/E. So a low P/E doesn't necessarily mean they are cheap.

Price-to-book (P/B) is a better metric. Banks are asset-heavy, and most of those assets are financial, so their P/Es are particularly sensitive to accounting adjustments like loan-loss ratios and revaluations. Think Oando's accounting on steroids.

If you want to bet on banks now, I'd look at the ones that are still growing their more predictable fee income.

Even if you use P/B, the tier banks are still cheap.
Zenith P/B is less than 0.5, Access is around 0.3..post dilution access will still not be up to 0.4.
Note: my contributions to the discussion on valuation of Nigeria banks doesn't mean I will buy bank shares at current market price.

HesInMe:
I agree. But you're actually making the case for not investing in banks. You and I can go and buy the very same high-interest FGN and corporate bonds the banks are accumulating. Why pay executive salaries and office space for the privilege?

Looking at the valuation of banks pre and post dilution,the banking sector still represents arguably the cheapest on NSE.
Most of the tier 1 banks presently have a p/e of less than 2 and even with dilution of various degree p/e of some will still not be up to 2.
So, assuming earnings stay constant which is unlikely banking stocks will still be cheap even with dilution.
My own reservation is just that stocks in the sector have historically been known to trade at a low p/e which might impact the rise in their share price. Banks will have to pay more dividends from their bogus earnings for us to see a sustainable rally in that space, my opinion though.

currentprice:
Ekuu Mkt o

I dey feel you o.
I checked nascon after your call and was convinced it was a good buy at N30.
Your effort is well appreciated.
I wouldn't mind if you can drop another name o

currentprice:
Have not read from oga Agba for like two weeks now

hope all is well

Agba might have hit jackpot with his insurance pick. 100% returns already achieved in some stocks in the sector.

emmaodet:
Thanks bro for the compliment. It was not easy at all for me but i know i had no choice nor option than to know it and keep going forward. No other option.
When i joined the group early last year, i tried contacting some good monikers here privately to guide and mentor me but they declined and told me to say whatever i want to say here publicly. I wasn't too comfortable exposing myself too much and i understand their fears too, we have to be very careful with kidnappers and scammers in today's nigeria.
So i took the expensive route of self-education and self-reliance. It has always helped me. I worked in an industry full of expats and God bless you, you are not on your A-game, they will mock you and write you off to company that you know nothing. So it is in your best effort to read, read and read manuals, books, online to operate most equipment because the whites especially Ukrainians and Russians won't show you ( especially a black boy they are eager to sack before).
Spent close to $1,000 on courses, videos, tutorials, assignments, YouTube videos too etc and have seen so much improvement in my stock analyzing.

The job you are doing here now reminds me of those good old days of the defunct stock market Nigeria (SMN) . You can't analyze too much, the deeper you dig the better you understand.
I personally appreciate those who take their time to analyze and scrutinize company financial reports.

Locotrader:
Both FA and TA are not responding on chams because of one off screen seller.

I have not seen any analysis from you on chams that I can term FA, I see some of what you have said about the company as projections or hope .

Omooloriredade:
Pretty sure you have asked this question before and I infer from your posting you don't see value in Chams. Apologies if that's a wild assumption.

Loco, the Chams ambassador, has been overwhelming us with his "FA' for a while. I suppose you are yet to be convinced.

Unfortunately, I don't have an opinion on the FA yet but Chams remains on my watchlist.

Moniepoint Inc, now valued at over $1B, does remind me of the potential in Chams though so we continue with DD.

Disclaimer - I do not hold Chams (yet) and I'm not recommending a trade.

You mean loco hyping of this company is based on FA?

emmaodet:
You are right with the valuation of 80-90 though i don't see them struggling with energy cost because operating expenses only rose by 3.8% between 9M/2024 and 9M/2023 while revenue grew by 76% during those periods.

my concern is their account receivable rising alot which means buyers are owing them more and inventory rising alot too - Both of these means product is struggling to move in the market thereby having more in store and buyers struggling to sell the ones they have so as to pay back their debts.
We can confirm this looking at their - Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) which is the number o days it takes the company to convert inventory to cashflow.
CCC = DIO (time to sell your products) + DSO ( time to collect money from customers) - DPO (time to pay your bills)
CCC = 91 +124 - 67 = 148 days ( we want less than 30 days, though we will compare with their peers in the same sector)
It takes 91 days for betaglass to sell their products, 124 days to collect the money and 67 days to pay contractors/suppliers of of raw materials.
With this, we can see betaglass is under pressure to pay their own bills (67 days) compared to the days it takes them to produce and get back their money (215 days)
Let's look back at betaglass CCC 5 years history to see if they are improving or not -

DIO ( 2020 - 2024 LTM) = 130 - 109 - 78 - 96 -91 -So as we can see, this number is improving. Taking betaglass 3 months to sell their products compared to previous 4 months plus. We want less than 30 days though.
DSO (2020 - 2024 LTM) = 85 - 68 - 75 - 74 - 124 - It takes 4 months to get back their money from buyers compare to 3 months previous. This number is getting bad. We want less than 30 days
DPO (2020 - 2024 LTM) - 98 - 83 - 67 - 74 - 67 - This number is reducing from 3 months to 2 months for betaglass to pay back contractors. It is not good. We want 90+

Good job you are doing.
Well done!

BullBearMkt:
I recently came across this attached 150-year-old chart created by a farmer named Samuel Benner in 1875. How relevant is this chart, particularly to the Nigerian Stock Market? That’s the first question I asked myself. Looking at the recent yearly data of the NGX ASI, it appears to be quite relevant. We are now moving towards "B," the good times, which are projected to end by 2026 - three years after 2023.

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Good job.
Can we now go and relax with the hope that the bear will not come until 2027

Sunrisepebble:
Tbh I’m inclined to agree with you. Like I’ve mentioned many times before I don’t sabi book too much so TA is far above my pay grade and even if I did, considering the way our market is structured I don’t think one can really use it here but volume is always a leading indicator.

When Wapco started its relay at 42 to 46 and I was asking why the sudden attention, people were telling me it was not sudden, that Wapco was undervalued but straight away I knew something was up and went to do investigation. There’s no smoke without fire. This was my spiritual analysis but I’m sure anyone looking at the volume chart would have seen unusual activity.

I could remember when you kept asking about the unusual volume.
But make no mistake, that is an indicator for people with vast knowledge of TA..

Agbalowomeri:
A bill to that effect has passed second reading in the national Assembly

The executive still holds the axe.
We don't need any change in our law for NAICOM to raise the minimum capital for insurance operators in the country.
Or did the CBN pass through the national Assembly before asking banks to raise their minimum capital?
I don't rate the law maker at all.

Toluway:
He was probably referring to Insurance sector, in view of probable call on them to recapitalise. I believe that the Central Bank will give them several months notice the way they gave the Banks and investors would have enough time to act. That is if they would be required to recapitalise next year. There would be a build up to that time. No smoke without fire. Though, everyone is entitled to his opinion, be it deductive or radical.

The CBN is not the regulator of insurance sector in Nigeria.
If they are to recapitalise,that would come from NAICOM, their regulator.