₦airaland Forum

Ginalex:
Any access bank/coronation bank person that'll call to follow up on the Access RI today, sorry in advance 🌚🌝

In fact why did these banks decide to do the recapitalization at the same time as if they will not be competing for same money? After all they have 2 years to recapitalize.

olig:
Thanks for this. I didn't know that.
Is like my $95 remain for a bank almost two years now. Make I go withdraw am before Tinubu collect am. I go use am chop better Eba or Fufu.
My dividend for FCM na kobo e go be, so no worries, he can have that. Maybe am lucky to get my dematerialization done quick too.

I have said it many years before this calamity called PBAT happen to Nigeria; people wpuld literarily sell their children to tax. He has not even started at all.

It will cost you to reactivate the account before you can withdraw. You have to deposit a
an amount and also pay charges. I were you I will write it off.

KarlTom:
I was about to post this.

I love this man's tenacity and dodgedness.
This is a pointer to the fact that he is not remotely thinking of selling his refinery.

A classic example of if one door closes, look for another open door instead of crying in front of the closed door...

When you reach a certain level of wealth it is hard to bring you down. Like they say that some banks are too big to fail, I think the FGN and the oil cabals will find Dangote hard to swallow. The oil import and subsidy fraud and the government refinery rehabilitation scum is a syndicate developed over 30 years. Only someone as big as Dangote can challenge them, and I believe with the help of the population he will win. But it will take time.

robobo:
There is a Yoruba saying which goes : to ba fe le omo baba jinna mu omo iya ko lu pa" if you want to pursue your step brother far from you , then take your full brother (same mother and same father) and beat him to death.

But where is Tinubu in all this? He is behaving like Buhari - quiet when the house is burning. Maybe his own Aso Rock cabal is not briefing him?

Raider76:
Don't think it will drop to N9.00. Many will rush to buy. And those who will hold beyond qualification date are mainly long term holders and not likely to sell. And you know that the bonus shares will not also be allocated immediately and are not available for sale. So price most likely will go up.

Also in the UCAP corporate Action announcement there's an item which says there will be an Extraordinary General Meeting on August 21. Some are speclatiing that among other things maybe UCAP's management will be authorized to buy or merge with a Merchant Bank during the recapitalization exercise. If this were to happen it will affect the price.

unite4real:
if you are a dividend hunter and targeting anything 10% and above, then the entry should be around N9

Don't think it will drop to N9.00. Many will rush to buy. And those who will hold beyond qualification date are mainly long term holders and not likely to sell. And you know that the bonus shares will not also be allocated immediately and are not available for sale. So price most likely will go up.

talk2me2:
It is either 13 or 13.05. Only existing shares qualify for dividend, and the bonus shares can only become existing shares after the qualification date.

That is correct. Thanks for pointing that out.

Frangel:
If price closed at say N40 on date of qualification:
Price on next trading day would be (N40 minus 90k) divided by 3 = 13.03 (actually N13.00 given the 5kobo price range for UCAP).

Actually you have two values depending on how you deduct the dividend:

1) (40.00/3)-0.90 = 12.43
2) (40-0.90)/3 = 13.03

Most likely they will do second one so the price will be N13.00

toyeoye:
Sounds like a selfish statement cos you want to discuss your own UCAP instead of Dangote..if he decides to delist from the NGX, over a fifth of the total value is gone! Let those who hold the shares use the sentiments discussed to make informed decisions.

Mind you I didn't say we should stop discussing the Dangote refinery issue, I said to ease off. Selfishness is what guides most human action. This includes the Dangote vs government and oil cabals duel. Each side is just bargaining to get what they desire. So if you are not selfish you don't know yourself. I am just concerned that we could miss some opportunities in our primary business here, which is buying and selling stocks, if we lose focus.

I hope with the new week NSEMPA will come back to discussing the stock market and ease off on the Dangote issue. As they say "bother with what you can control". Let the rich and powerful sort themselves out.

I am struggling with many questions on UCAP. What is their actual plan in paying such high interim dividend and an unpresidented bonus? How does it fit in the ongoing recapitalization of banks? What will happen to the share price post adjustment? Should I sell and take capital gain or wait and take the bonus?

Ginalex:
"..now it's time to eat the pie" abi? Good! Let them start with good interim dividend this year to shareholders then we can start listening to the big big grammar here and there

It's not in their nature. I never trusted their business model. I think I is based on a design to siphon money abroad.

Raider76:
Please what actually happened at the court this time? Oando used to send a report to the NGX upon each adjournment. But they didn't this time. I couldn't find any reports of the adjournment online. I saw two different dates for the next hearing on different fora. What is the reason for the adjournment and to what date please.

BullBearMkt:

When I saw all the laughter you put in your post I thought you were not taking the issue of the mistaken date of Oando hearing you posted seriously enough. I am one of those that noted the date 12 Oct as you posted. Then I saw 10th July on another forum. I posted my above post here asking for clarification. Only Myc responded to me. Because I somehow trust NSEMPA more I didn't take the 10 July seriously. The rest, as they said, is history.

SangoOlukosoOba:
Thanks very much. I am just dumping money on the stocks to return after a minimum of 20 years. I don’t have plans getting into trading.

I just need a platform which you have listed for me, to have records and monitor its performance. I think I will go with Trove. It gets mentioned often on this thread.

Thanks very much!

I don't think it's a good idea to dump money in individual stocks and walk away for 20 years, especially Nigerian stocks. It is better to choose an ETF or an actively managed index fund.

The fight between Dangote on one hand, the oil cabals and corrupt government on the other is too big for us to influence. But we the citizens and consumers will be the beneficiary or the loosers defending on the outcome. Dangote said he fought all his life and still has the strength to fight on. We know what he did in cement and the outcome.

We can only pray that the evil forces that every now and then close their petrol stations, force us into panic and endless ques, sometimes sleeping in our vehicles, loosing large amounts of man-hours and even lives, until their demands of price increase, bridging cost or petrol Import debt are paid, will loose this fight. Let's pray that the government agents that collude with then and take their share will loose this fight. Let's pray for a saner country with abundant fuel supply at a fair price where nobody profitiers and gets enrinched on the back of others. Amen.

Streetinvestor2:
If your intention is to sell.You can sell your original holdings as long as you are selling after the qualification date.Then anytime it comes no wahala. Some takes real long time.You may not even know till you check your cscs statement not your in-house account with your broker. Some will even appear in another broker you don't want if you have different broker with the same CHN for all your broker

Woo! The bolded is really terrible!

nosa2:
Oga can't wait to offload

No. I am actually trying to assess if it is worth waiting for a bonus or taking the capital gains.

Please how long does it normally takes after closure date for bonus shares to be credited to one's CSCS account?

When I saw UCAP coming down because of some people who had a N40 target and we're selling I rushed and sold some other stock and rotated to UCAP @39. A stock giving 2:1 bonus can't stay down for long.

KarlTom:
IMO, the bolded is the issue we have as a nation.

EVERY individual or business has a phase of baby steps: that does not mean that someday they will not walk and eventually run.
No business hits the ground running without adequate support.

What Dangote has done (building a refinery of that capacity) goes beyond what most Nigerians can fully understand.

There is an endless list of home-grown businesses that had life snuffed out of them BECAUSE we wanted quality from foreign countries.

Those foreign quality products once started poorly too...

Oga why do you think we remain poor as a nation? Isn't it the way we keep holding ourselves back? Dangote said he is taking away the easy money that many cabals in the oil value chain have been making for years and he does not expect them to pray for him.

Since when do Nigerians bother about quality products, with all the substandard products that our importers go to Chaina and ask them to make for us? Dangote refinery can survive without Nigeria. Many of the big refineries in Singapore and Europe are situated in countries that don't produce a drop of oil. So unless we have a government that is serious about us processing our oil and not exporting it and importing refined products then maybe that's where we will head. One thing is for sure. Nigerians can't kill a private man's refinery like they killed the government owned ones.

debeey87:
Nahco's dividend increase might not be substantial for FY24. At the last AGM, the chairman said the company was planning more expansion drive to increase value they are able to deliver long term to shareholders and that definitely has to come from cash flows.

No doubt they have done well over the last 2yrs in terms of dividend payout and overall performance. From 0.40k in 2021 to 1.40 or so in 2022, they paid 2.50 thereabout for last uear. Make nobody expect over 4 naira as dividend Sha if the chairman's statement is anything to go by.

Can't they use the retained earnings or go to the capital market?

mikeapollo:
The court had stated that the adjournment was to allow the company to produce a report of compliance with the Court’s order dated June 7, 2022, which requires it to submit its Scheme of Arrangement document to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the NGX within 30 days, along with other instructions.
https://nairametrics.com/2024/07/18/court-says-oando-minority-shareholders-cannot-be-forced-to-sell-their-shares/

This means that the Court was always adjourning because Oando still delayed and failed to produce a report of compliance with the order to submit its Scheme of Arrangement document to SEC and NGX for the delisting of the shares!

It seems the case was delayed and frustrated by Oando itself!

What's important now is what's going on on the floor of the NGX. Let's see how far the rally goes.

Picky1:
+NAHCO....another one of the best, really proud of those guys!

I saw their retained earnings of over N10b
What do you think they will do end of year in terms of dividend and bonus? I don't think they will give interim div since their announcement for Q2 is for unaudited results.

Chai. Oando taking off same day as UCAP. E for wait untill we chop UCAP finish.

yMcy56:
Sugar and Salt

Alhaji is too busy with Refinery which he said is giving him grey hair.

KarlTom:
If I am one of those 13 major shareholders, I would start offloading my holdings...

Unless of course if they are errands boys of the major shareholders

mikeapollo:
There are two cases, though related and being consolidated: the initial case was between the 14 minority shareholders vs Oando; and the other case was instituted by 5 other minority shareholders against the 14 shareholders which the court has just ruled on. This ruling has surely, indirectly determined the fate of the first case between the 14minorty shareholders vs Oando.
Now, the court has ruled that its earlier instruction that Oando should file a Scheme Arrangement for the acquisition of shares of all minority shareholders should now be limited or restricted to only the shares of the 14 minority shareholders that went to court.
Therefore the court has made the 14 minority shareholders to suffer the consequence of their action. They are to get N7.07 per share unless they reach a compromise with Oando or they withdraw the case. They were stupid enough to maintain N7.07 as the offer price when the shares were already selling at N10-N16 per share for a year . The court saw the irrationality in this and allowed the 5 other minority shareholders to join the case, and threw the 14 minority shareholders out.
The case coming up in October is the original case between the 14 shareholders and Oando. That is when Oando will therefore file a revised Scheme of Arrangement to acquire the shares of the 14 shareholders only at N7.07 per share if no compromise or withdrawal happens between now and October.

Thanks for this detailed explanation. The thing is so confusing.

vacanci:
Some guys and their crew members trying to cash out on Oando using that fake news in my own opinion.
I am surprised how OGG jumped at it without verification. Not a single source online. Oando is too big for such a news to not have hit even Twitter or nairametrics and proshare.
I smell foul play by the authors of this report.
I will be surprised if it's a true judgement smuggled out without any notice. We watch and see.
Guys be careful

Nairametrics has reported it oo.. :

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nairametrics.com/2024/07/18/court-says-oando-minority-shareholders-cannot-be-forced-to-sell-their-shares/%3famp=1

How did they sneak this OANDO judgement on people nah? I thought they said that the case was adjourned to October.

yMcy56:
Haa!! Only our Maker, Almighty God can forsee tomorrow Oga mi.
Oga Oracle wey for ask Ifa for us, some bad belle don make him delete his handle....

Anyway, from the way these guys are defending share prices and working towards new recapitalization, huge % may be domiciled with the rich directors, CEOs, FPIs and pot belles, thus making the share price to be attractive and stay up to meet the new capitalization till the expected day of CBN's reckoning....... 😊

Invariably, Oga Agba and the generational low gang may have more years of waiting and drinking Garri......😁. ......Just dey pity the innocent masses because of the price of Garri and groundnut. Chai! 😟😏

Don't mind me. 😁
Just dey talk my own o. I may be right or wrong.

@Myc actually "foreseeing" comes out of deductive reasoning, which is what you have done. It is similar to prediction. The outcome is not definite. What Oracle tells is a claim of divine revelation to him. Being from a devine source makes the outcome definite. So you may relax as by foreseeing you are not competing with Oracle but doing something human.

I agree with your intuition. It confirms my belief that our rich people have discovered how easily the stock market can make them legally wealthy in very short time (maybe thanks to Ote), and they will continue to exploit that. We the small players will benefit if we follow them.

nosa2:
Forward EPS of N5.16 and forward P.E of around 7?

Thats expensive in this market

Na dis kin analysis de spoil party.

UCAP already on full bid. But what is the qualification date?

yMcy56:
ACCESS don dey push the price up small small.....
Thry needed to move 5he price around 22 or more possibly.
This year till 2026 will be interesting, God willing. God spare our lives.

Amen for that. Please what do you foresee between now and 2026?