₦airaland Forum

Youth and poor don't need welfare; they need jobs; they need economic opportunities;
Welfare should be for disabled, vulnerable, orphans, old, sickly, those dealing with natural disasters and etc.

You're killing south africans - making them dependant on social welfare - no wonder only immigrants work - the south africans are drinking cheap beer from SASSA

jl115:
South Africa also has one of the lowest poverty figures in Africa, thanks to SASSA

And they probably won't

Facts are sacrosanct.

Just30:
As usual, always not ready to deal with facts.

Bloomberg was the one that reported that your country is doing above 70% ....

Instead of crying here, go argue with them

South Africa leading with youth unemployment - yet they deride a motor cycle industry - whose value chain from manufacturing, repairs, driving & logistics - transport services - would probably employ more than a million.

You're never serious - your 2023 resolution - should be to get serious with life.
Ground rules - facts are sacrosant.
Argue about theories, your own viewpoints, your assessment of situation.
But leave facts alone.

Then we can engage in an intellectual debate beneficial to you and me.

Just30:
compare to Ghana and Nigeria, you're doing worse because your debt servicing is 70% of revenue and it's only going to grow next year to 85%.

All the economist in your country knows that you'll hardly hit 2 trillion kshs this year ending June

No, we don't have huge debt servicing problem - compared to Nigeria or Ghana.
We are doing at worse 55% - yes - we should do 33%.
We are growing revenues at double digit - this year we aim for 2.4 trillion in ordinary plus another 2-300 billion kshs in other revenues.
our debt services are about 1.2-1.4 trillion - and we will borrow 700B.
In short, the net debt services are really - about 600-700B.

As for bailout - we will bail out KQ for 500m dollars amongst other SOE.

And we are planning to sell 5 SOES. Remember we have like 200-300 SOES while Nigeria pretty much sold everything in 1990.

GeneralDae2:
Kenya has a huge debt servicing problem and must do something urgently before 2024 when some of these Eurobond debts mature.
Nigeria just bailed out Ajaokuta steel with 500 million dollars, something the Kenyans borrowed recently from IMF.

Open your google - then search "Nigeria debt servicing ratio 2022". Where will revenues come from? Oil prices are now dropping?

Shaytun:
You must be thinking out of your ass again.

Foreign debt servicing is a measly 1.4 trillion. How and where did that exceed revenue? Or are you confusing Nigeria for Kenya.

Kenya is a failed state, Nigeria is a developing one. Our Revenue has been increasing on yoy basis, yours has been decreasing since 2018.

“For debt service, domestic debts (including Ways and Means) got N4.49 trillion; foreign debt was allocated N1.81 trillion; and sinking fund to retire maturing loans took N247.72 billion.“

The evidence from ASIA is staggering.
Yes, min wage, BEE, AA dont fix the root cause of the problem and we are in agreement.
I insist South Africans - millions - are too poor to afford cars - but can afford cheap Chinese scoters and bikes.

Why arent they not buying? Maybe they are not cheaply available? It's frankly intriguing if you're not lying that they are cheap.

You notice the same thing in Zambia, Zim, Botswana - they simply dry up and logistics become hectic - I have heard terrible stories of kenya truck drivers in Zambia - where you can spend a week in forest as you wait for spares parts - while anywhere in east Africa - there is always motorbike away- in Kenya, TZ, Rwanda and Uganda - and Nigeria - they are now also become as ubiquitous as Asia.

jl115:
I don't subliminally blame "black" ANC.... I 100% fully blame the ANC.

No evidence that motorcycles would lift SAns out of poverty..... What will 100% lift SA out of poverty is fixing Eskom(and expansion of IPPs) and implementing policies that will grow the economy and create jobs... Simple.

There is only one pro poor policy that actually works and that is the policy that creates jobs.... Minimum wage, BEE, AA ect ect don't work.

They must be drunk from all the festivities of the end year; I suggest you move budget making to mid-year You already have debt servicing exceed revenues; naira has issues; economy is sick; and instead of reducing the budget; they've doubled it? What magic will they use to finance it.

Shaytun:
Nigeria 2023 Federal budget of 50 billion Dollars the highest til date.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/12/29/nassembly-passes-2023-budget-raises-proposed-spending-by-n1-32trn-to-n21-82trn/amp/

Actually, it's less than that - maybe 13.5m now.
https://www.natis.gov.za/index.php/statistics/live-vehicle-population/live-vehicle-population-2021

Typical car ownership increase "rapidly" when GDP per capita hits 5,000usd.
Kenya is at least a decade from growing a motor vehicle industry.
For now Kenya should concentrate on motor cyles.

As for South Africa is upper middle class or simply middle class - indeed it's neither develop or developing - it can barely sell 0.5M car - Italy with same pop of 60m - does 1.5m cars annually. That difference btw middle-class country and high-income country.

My worry is South Africa income inequality - esp for blacks like you - 85% in rural areas dont own any car. 40% of all cars are in Gauteng. Your rural folks need motor bikes - because frankly - they cant afford cars. That is why again 85% of them cannot afford and relie on wheelbarrows.

Dont sneer at motor bikes - again.

AfriqueDuZuid:
Where do you get that SA has 14 million cars? Which year?

What's your source?

South Africa is a newly industrialised nation, its not a developed nor is it a developing, who you comparing SA to when you say they do 1.5m cars.

Which report ever said Motobikes developed East Asian countries?

I know subliminally you blame the black ANC for South Africa mess. South Africa can grow as fast it did before but is that growth broad base; or you'll have 10% white population owning 90% of the country wealth.

We don't just need growth - we need a broad-based growth that lift many out of poverty by creating jobs and improving well-being of everyone including poor rural south africans who need motorbikes like yesterday.

Again refer to LATAM versus East Asia.

jl115:
where is your evidence that our economy is not growing because we don't have motorcycles?........ We just going to ignore the real problem which is corruption and Eskom?

Do you consider the a million or a half million jobs created by motorcycle riders in kenya transporting people and goods economic growth and jobs?
https://metropoltv.co.ke/2022/03/14/how-greatly-boda-boda-riders-have-contributed-to-kenyas-gdp/

Or what is your idea of jobs. These motor cycle riders makes at average 10 dollars per day...that is 250 dollar a month if they work 25 days a month..

Most factory jobs dont pay 250 dollars a month. In Ethiopia they pay even 50 dollars a month - in some places - even 25 dollars.

And ask yourself how long will it take to create a million factory jobs ? Maybe 20yrs.

jl115:
I don't care about Latin America or how its similar to SA... I'm asking how can you say no one can predict the future except for you?

Bru... You are to fixated on motorcycle at the moment... There is absolutely 0 evidence to suggest that more motorcycles would make any difference in the SAn economy.

We don't need more pro poor policies, we need policies that create economic growth and job creation supported by a strong education system ... Very simple concept that most politicians don't understand

I always use the latin phrase ceteris paribus in my prediction.
South Africa have to think about it's income inequality beyond useless ANC BEE - or Malema dangerous rhetorics.
Motorbikes I insist is one such policy that should encourage south africa poor to become mobile.

Personally, I don't know how to drive a motorcycle - I ride bicycles sometimes - but I know the poor love them.

South Africa and other africa gov have to PRIORITIZE PRO POOR policies - from transport to finance to tourism to name it

jl115:
1. Another monumentally hypocritical statement from you, first you say Kenya Will overtake SA by 2030 100% now you say nobody can predict the future? So what is it then? How come you can predict the future but the IMF, WB, PWC can't?

2. They are also astronomically more dangerous, also no data to back up that claim wrt South Africa

3. Of course they wood, I would love to own a bugatti.... Unfortunately the world don't work like that.

4. Cheap bikes are readily available, nobody is stopping people from buying them.

5. Cool story bru....

6. What's Kenya's excuse?

I am telling your motor bikes have been revolution in kenya even amongst the few hunters and gatherers. That is why their numbers have shot from mere 6,000 in 2008 to now 2,500,000. What kind of growth is that. From 6K to 2.5m. EXPONENTIAL? Last year we added 0.35m bikes. This year I bet 0.4m. These motor bikes are transforming people lives..especially the poor.

In another two years - we will be adding a million annually - and hopefully we can get to even 15 million motor bikes - meaning at leasy one in every family by 2030.

jl115:
Yes, and nothing to do with the road network, the fact that paved roads exists in such remote places is testament to our transport infrastructure which is ranked 33rd in the world.

My bru there are Kenyans that still need to hunt for food to survive that's how far away they are from any infrastructure in your country ....and you want to say that only being able to go to the shop once a month means our transport efficency needs work? You good bro?

1) There is no formulae for any projection or prediction. Nobody can predict tomorrow. Tomorrow kenya might discover some crazy minerals and become very rich. And so may South Africa.

2) It goes without saying that motor cycles are more efficient than any public transport - at least as last mile. That is why they are catching fire in east africa and are crazy in Asia.

3) No they dont choose to be poor. They would love to own custom made sprinter like you and go everywhere anywhere.

South Africa gov has failed its poor by promoting elitist model of development. You're okay driving BMW 500C motor bike with your 5000CC SUV hunting. They are not okay.

And they will resort to killing, maiming, raping and robing you.

It upon you to realize you cannot continue like this - leaving millions poor and destitute - and declaring Malema a mad man.

jl115:
1. Not how growth projections work...but what ever makes you sleep at night

2. OK and? Some countries use more motorcycles than others, others use more public transport... Very simple

3. People live like that out of choice, those that don't move to the city

So daily groceries - they can't - they have to wait for make or break monthly shopping. Look like your road network and your economy vibrancy needs lot of work.

jl115:
Yes I'm serious, there might be small tuck shops and convenience stores but not places where you can legit do a months shopping

Okay let me just process this. Shops in rural south africa are 50-80km away - are we serious here? Your country is truly hopeless.

As for long argument - just go back to Kenya 10yrs ago - South Africa 10yrs ago - you answer lies there. Dont engage in maths your protein lacking body cannot digest. You rather hunt for wild pigs.

Anyway, economies grow fast when they figure out how to make people more productive. Literally the velocity of money is directly related to mobility directly related to growth in gdp.

You may want your rural population moving a lot faster and a lot more than they are doing so they can contribute. Economy is about exchanging money very fast. That is the trick. It's about efficiency and productivity. Produce more and efficiently exchange.

For example - hunter contribute zero to economy - but If I have 1,000 rands - and it get exchange 1,000 times over the year - my contribution to the economy is a million rands. That money has touched 1,000 souls and transform their live. That is economic growth.

jl115:
1) I want to own a private jet....but I can't, people buy what they need and what they can afford....if they wanted to they can buy a dirt cheap bike... But why would they? Its a waste of money because they don't need it.

2. There are near 300 000 min minibus taxis, 60 000 ubers/bolt, 20 000 meter taxis......we don't need bikes for public transport..

3) it's not about "wants" it's about "needs" ......tell me how a little 50cc bike is going to travel 50-80km(one way) to the nearest shop everyday? Remember we are talking rural!! There are no shops or clinics nearby, you can't go shopping every day because it isn't economically feasible, you also can't buy a bike because you might need to go to the clinic 2-3 times a year? How are you going to visit your friends and ride around town when the nearest fuel station is 80km away?

4) 1/3 is massive...... SA is 300% bigger.... We done the math, we already know you ain't catching SA gdp wise in our lifetime.....and most likely never catching SA per capita wise.

5) if Kenya grew by 6% and SA stood completely still it would take Kenya 22 years to reach SA... But let's make it more realistic and say SA continues to grow by 1%.....then it will take Kenya 27 years.... 2023+27 = 2050 and that's for total GDP.... Your population is going to be much bigger than SAs.... So please explain how you are going to reach SA by 2030?

6)your entire argument revolves around the fact if the ANC governs for the foreseeable future.... However they are polling at less than 40%, all experts agree that the ANC will lose the next election....after the ANC is gone, SA will easily grow at 4-5 % within 3 years of the new government taking control.

Lot of wasted money here like Nigeria obundu ranch or even more ridiculous one in Calabr - with mono rail and all that.
Please dont create a zoo.
The nature has given you everything you need.
You cannot sustain a fake thing - with fake animals.

Ghana should focus it tourism along shores of altantic and then river volta.
The nature will sustain itself.

I lived in Uganda - and they are doing great job in tourims - building tourism resorts along the nile.

Not trying to create a fake river, fake animals.

Museveni simply invited foreign investors to build resorts along river nile ....they create things around existing .

For like 40kms of both banks of river nile in Jinja are resorts - and activities - build around existing ecosystem - dont try to create a fake ecosystem - it very expensive to recreate nature


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvwxGOic9i8


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqBx85pvzb0


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8cQCB6uYSo&t=108s

Just30:
Surrounded by mountain ranges on all four sides

Welkom to the best


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2aA1qmU_q0

1) Give the same choice to poor - to want or need a vehicle - and that mean south africa gov encourages the ownership of dirty cheap motorbikes. I dont think it has done enough on that front.

2) Taiwan is developed and has world class public trasport system - yet there is space for motor bikes - even Europe with its development has space for motor bikes. You cannot find easy replacemtn for motorbikes esp for last mile. The train or bus or van will never drop you in your house. It either a personal car or motor bike or bicycle.

3) The poor are poor exactly for that - they cant shop as frequently as they want - they have to do it monthly - they cant visit people as much as they want - heck they cant even go have beer in local market because it's far - they cant even go to hospital as much as they want - because transport is expensive or not convenient or not available. They remain poor. They literally have no economic mobility. Now imagine if they own small 50 cc motorbike that can take them to pretty much everywhere very very cheaply. They can shop daily. They can drink daily. They can take their farm produce to market daily. They can go hospital daily if need be. They are able to move almost any minute anyhow cheaply. These plus stuff like mobile money increase the velocity of money leading to economic growth...the bar is able to restock daily, brewery can brew daily...etc,

4) Kenya has grown compared to many other Africa countries - you say it's midget - yet as we speak it only 1/3 less than south africa in gdp per capita. I think Boer you're struggling to keep up with facts.

The facts are clear - kenya is pulling almost 7% economic growth - that mean it will definitely double it GDP and GDP per capita to 4,000 in a decade - reaching South Africa level in 2030 (Upper middle income). South Africa by their own ministry of treasury projection is to growing btw 0-1% for the medium term - meaning it remain there - as pop growth is 0-1% - if we dont factor illegal immigrants. If we add 10M illegal immigrants - South Africa population is 70m...South Africa gdp per capita...drops to 6,000 usd.

Now you are about to understand why South Africa is going nowhere while Asia countries are moving to developed world.

Africa has two models to copy - LATAM model aka south africa - latin america - or the South or East Asian model.

LATAM (Latin America) - end results middle class trap, income inequality, drugs, crime, hopelessness. Asian model - end results is to become developed in great numbers..as economic growth is BROAD, and nobody is left behind. LATAM...growth become uneven...leading to South Africa, Brazil, Mexico...few super rich...and many poor people resort to crime and drugs.

jl115:
1. I don't need a car,I just want one....see the difference?

2. Taiwan only rank 6 places higher than SA wrt transport infrastructure and all our major cities have much much less congestion than Taiwan cities.... Basically we are close to par with Taiwan

3. Yes....explain to me how a person who needs to go buy the months groceries for an entire family will use a bike to transport those goods... Also remember they live in rural areas, meaning they are far away from any shops and only shop once a month..... Tell me how a bike is better than a taxi for the above person.

4. Kenya has a little midget economy with a massive population.....not even a brain dead president can't manage at least 5-6% growth because those factors

At least your understand the need for this. Safety, noise, pollution and other negative things can be mitigated. Everything has pros and cons. Motorbike accident are nothing compared to the impact it will have in africa transportation.

Obaaderemi2:
Truly Africa needs this but like everything else management is key. The way these two-wheelers get involved in road accidents here is mind boggling.

I rather listen to data saying 85% of household living in rural south africa do not own any vehicle.
These people lifes would dramatically improve if they owned two-wheel vehicles.
I am not convinced any public transport can efficient services such rural population spread over large areas.
Also large slum population in urban areas cannot afford to own four wheel vehicles.

You must accept that motor bikes have contributed to Asian economic growth.
And we are seeing the same effect in East Africa.

I think culture and lack of government incentive/intervention is responsible - because you see it right from Zambia, Zimbwabwe, Malawi - which are poor countries - them drying up. Perhaps East Africa fast growth the last two decades could be linked to motor bikes

I believe Africa should copy Asian - encourage the manufacture and use of two-wheel vehicles - motor bikes - that it's poor people can afford.
This will improve the wellbeing of Africans and finally lead to economic growth - until it reaches a position they can afford four -wheel vehicles.

I find this ostracization of two-wheel over four-wheel vehicles based on nothing but useless pride.

jl115:
or maybe like you've been told several times that South Africans just don't need bikes

Maybe it culture - maybe South African blacks see motorbikes as white boy thing - akin to US of A.

jl115:
asian bike are available yes.... And it was R16500 for a 150cc....im pretty sure you could get smaller bikes for even less

https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/motorcycles/south-africa#unit-sales
From the brands - it appears it expensive BMWs - which dominate the market.
Are cheap Asian motor bikes really available.
I am talking bikes less than 150cc.

jl115:
bikes are dirt cheap in SA.. You can buy a 150cc for R16500... Which is less than a $1000 and second hand you can even get them for a couple hundred rand

That explain why you're stuck in middle class trap - you're neither poor nor rich.

AfriqueDuZuid:
Posting graphs without dates or source is pointless

Mpesa did not work as more South Africans owned bank accounts and trust in them.

Compared to where mpesa worked Lesotho, Kenya, Tanzania and others the latter was different.

If you look at countries where moto bikes works the have mainly poor roads and lack of public transport. South Africa does not have a problem with that. Again south Africans use 7 seater cars for short distance transport in rural areas(eg Toyota avansa)

I supported Russia initially because I thought Ukraine were stupid to poke a superpower. I probably shared my views here. Once it became apparent Russia were drunk and incapable of fighting - then it's over for them.

I support the truth - truth is Russia is getting a hiding

vankelvin:
That RIP guy is best described as a Western puppet . He has been brainwashed totally
To him what the Western media reports is right and he will not accept any other truth.

If today US and all NATO nations decide to fight Russia none will win the war

It only became Russia versus NATO once Ukraine proved themselves capable of holding ground and fighting. That is why Russia lost this war in 72 hours it got beaten in KIEV. From then NATO were convinced that Ukraine was not hopeless against Russia - and the military aid has poured in - and Russia frankly has no hope. This is very similar to Soviet versus Afgan war. Once the Islamic Muhajiddeen had proven capable of fighting the Soviets - US poured money and weapons. Soviet were defeated and it crumbled.

vankelvin:
[/b]
This war is a Russia vrs NATO and Russia is playing carefully so they don't loss all their amunitions and Military personels

Only 14% of South Africa rural have cars - 33% for urban.
It strange that motor bike adoption is low if the entry prize is low.
In Kenya - pre-2008 - there were only 3,757 bikes. Those days motor bikes were seen as middle-class sport - the Yamahas then was popular brand.
When gov lowered waved of tax on imported motorcycles in 2008 to promote job creation in the transport sector the number of motorbikes leaped from to 91151 in 2009
Today as we speak there are 2.5 million motor bikes - employing many youths - and many earn very good money per day.

It really Southern Africa loss....because kenya is firing on all it's economic cylinders by adopting such measures.

The same way South Africa missed the M-PESA train - mobile money- or maybe it didnt.

And same way it's economically stuck since 2010 unable it appear to restructure or re-invigorate it's economy in any way.

AfriqueDuZuid:
Moto bikes are cheap one can get em for as low as $600

South Africans don't like em, we don't have roads issues, we buy cars and lots of them.

Do you think if motor bikes were dirty cheap in South Africa people will not buy them or not?
South Africa that we know is world most inequal country.
There are very rich people - and very poor people.

AfriqueDuZuid:
South Africa don't need motor bikes, different countries have different needs, our economic make up is different


There are roads in rural areas in SA, people prefer buses and taxis...... South Africans buy cars in 10 years we add more than 5 million cars

Stats are done by Nigeria or Kenya gov. You can decide to count them as rich if you want. What most people are interested are cashflow. You can own 1,000 acres but if you're producing nothing - someone in US using his credit card to make purchases daily - is definitely richer than you. Africa can be asset rich but income poor.

Most analysis is focused on income and expenditure...rarely on assets. Cashflow/money supply/velocity = Economic activity.

Africa is definitely resource rich - btw DRC and Nigeria - they have maybe 50 trillion of natural resources - but until they are harnessed - they remain assets or potential.

GeneralDae:
Thank you very much. The West controls the narrative on everything. This is also related to the statistics they put out there on other topics related to the economy as well.

And those poor people dont deserve to own a vehicle?
It's only the rich who deserve to own cars?
The poor deserve to own a vehicle - and in this case - cheap motorcycle would make their travel and business easy
Therefore South Africa should put incentive to increase motor cycle ownership by those who cannot afford cars.

In kenya there were few motor bikes - until gov decided to zero rate import taxes for any motor bikes of less than 120 cc - the cheap chinese & indians motorbikes became very affordable and poor now owns them. It cost less than 1,000 usd to buy a new one - a second one - some buy with 150usd. This has transformed the lives of the poor while creating a million job - for motor cycle taxis and deliveries.

jl115:
Most people in rural areas live of substance farming and are self sufficient

Poverty figure is 19.6% or 11.7 million people.

In Kenya the poverty figures is over 31%

Rural unemployment in South Africa is almost 60%. Motor bikes could transform their fortunes like it done in Asia and East Africa. In urban areas - again low income could benefit greatly from motor bikes.

Quick google -

As of 2022, around 18.2 million people in South Africa lived in extreme poverty, with the poverty threshold at 1.90 U.S. dollars daily.

Those 20 million people need close to 5 million motor bikes to provide them cheap and affordable transport - and change their lives.

AfriqueDuZuid:
I don't stay in rural nor slums.

I have my own car, again taxis and buses are readily available in rural areas n slums

Again unemployment is 33% not 40%

Also SA gdp per capita is more than 3 times (SA $6900 Kenya $2200)

I see your are conspiracy nutcase.

AfriqueDuZuid:
He who controls the media controls the peoples narrative... Same way they'll make you believe kanye west is crazy.

Same way they pushed single narrative of covid.

Europe is currently having a power crisis and no one reports on it because it will make them look bad.

You should know better: Kenya has one terror attack at a mall.... already they issue travel alerts that Kenya is not safe, but the US has over 200[b][/b] of those in a single year its not even major news, no travel restrictions. And guess what Kenyans still speak of it even today

Where is it wrong.
2014 - Pro-Western/EU/NATO leadership is elected. Defeated Pro-Russia leaders run to Russia.
2014 - Ukraine civil war starts in Russian speaking Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk.
2014 - Russia invade Ukraine & annex Crimea. Western nations start sanction Russia.

Btw 2014/2022 - Civil war ensures btw seperatist Pro-Russia forces in Donbas & Luhansk & Ukraine military.

2022 - Russia invade Ukraine with aim of overthrowing Ukraine gov & returning pro-Russia back to power.

2022 Feb - Russia forces invade from North, South and East - commandos land in Kiev airport - and tanks are deployed to outskirts of KIEV.

2022 Summer - Russia forces are beaten - driven from outskrits of Kiev and whole of the north - towards the East and South.

2022 Nov - Last month Russia loses the only major city - of 600k people - they had won - Kherson - and retreat further back in Donbas and Luhasnk.

Now - as we speak - Russian are battling exactly where Ukraine seperatist rebels were battling Ukraine army,

In short - we are back to the stalemate that had endured from 2014-2022.

And with major changes
1) Russia superpowerness has been exposed to be a fraud. They took Crimea without firing a shot in 2014 - because Ukraine feared them. Now in 2022 Russian ability to attack Ukraine has been degraded - and they are digging trenches like rebels. Ukraine no longer fear Putin or Russia - ever since they gave them hiding in KIEV and got them running. Big mistake for Putin.

2) Ukraine that for long time have been prevented from arming - as deal btw Russia and NATO - can now arm themselves - and are receiving tonnes of weapons from NATO allies - mostly the USA. Russia attacking Ukraine in 2014 gave Ukraine the right to arm themselves and build their defense...now they can even get nuclear if they want.

The future.
1) Stalemate in East and South Ukraine continues - as Ukraine forces battle Russia - if Russia can afford to keep the war going. It highly likely they wont be able to afford to fight Ukraine backed by NATO. The sanctions will continue being added.

2) Russia overthrow Putin and initiate talks on Donbas/Luhasnk - and agree to pay for damages they have caused. Like Germany are yet to finishing paying for WWII - Russian maybe need 50yrs to rebuild Ukraine and pay the damages they caused throwing bombs carelessly & aimlessly while mostly drunk on vodka.

In both scenarios - Russia is finished as super-power. USA and her NATO allies now can focus on poor CHINA. Russia capitulation is bad news for global politics - and we now go back to another post 1990 USSR collapse - USA will run the world. Putin it appears had used his charisma to project power on a country that is rotten and drunk like Russia and this war has exposed them to ridicule and defeat.

AfriqueDuZuid:
You reading it wrong