₦airaland Forum

Only because Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala forced your broke banks to merge. You have what - 16 banks now. Kenya has 40 Banks. I think more than 10 are now in Africa Top 100.

obaaderemi:
Nigeria. 6
Kenya. 3.

You should be catching up with south africa and egypt - not waiting for smaller country - 4 times smaller in pop and twice in land mass - without minerals - surpass you - as is very likely.

obaaderemi:
As usual. Always waiting to catch up.
Gallipig, look at the specimen you were hailing.
Kikuyu1 is wiser now. He no longer follows this punk blindly.

The rand recovered. Nominal GDP remain at USd level. If rand had not recovered - South Africa GDP would have dropped like Angola from 140 to 70B - and now it's climbed back to 125B.

Ghana with 50% external debt - how does the weakening of CEDIS not affect you debt. You'll soon have 200 % gdp to debt - without any extra borrowing. That is how countries go down.

Just40:
You did this same nonsense with the South Africans and you were educated here on how GDP calculations work.

Don't repeat same dumb excuse.

Last year it was 82% and this year's August, it dropped to 68%

Next excuse

I think IMF need to revise this - your nominal GDP has sunk by half - meaning your debt to gdp is now more than Zambia.
I dont think anybody predicted this crazy month in Ghana

Last year it was 82 percent.

Stubborn facts.

Just40:
--ranting of a madman

I put chart out there today from IMF. Your debt to GDP is next to Zambia (113) - Ghana(95%). Kenya is steady at 69% for last few years.
Our 115B dollars economy generate 20B dollars plus in revenues annually.
We can re-pay our debt.
Your economy can barely collect 5B dollars.

Just40:
You're just not smart kiddo ... You don't seem to know why you borrow ...

Yet Ghana has a better debt to GDP than Kenya and Kenya has no means of being able to repay it debt at the moment and that is why youre defaulting on all your obligations.

You have an obligation of 12 billion next year because of how stupidly your country borrowed to spend on nothing.

Which bank? Bank of Ghana? Do you even understand the role of a central banker?

Kenya Central Bank is independently and proffesionally run - and always almost make profit.

Kenya's central bank pays $33 million dividend to state
Sep 30, 2022 — The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) on Friday announced that it has paid the Treasury a Ksh4 billion ($33 million) dividend to the state.

samorobo:
When your bank surpasses ours then come back for this conversation,otherwise you are just splitting hairs abd heckling.
Sounds like a wet dream to me. We are talking present abd you are talking about a future they doesn’t exist. Can’t you see how daft you sound.

Leading indicators
50% depreciation this month=HyperInflation.
Prize removed from supermarkets
Business closed because traders cant figure out the hell
Importers have shut down.
Bond has been classified as Junk.
Credit rating is now C -

Kenya has not defaulted on any loan - and we are okay - we took the early warnings seriously - and we are fortunate Ruto is now president - and is fixing the problem head on.

You never heed any warnings until it's too late.

Just40:
So you agree we haven't defaulted on any of our debt obligations

You're just too stupid... Ghana debt obligation for 2023 is 3 billion dollars and half year inflows into Ghana sinking fund was 1.5 billion dollars. A fund specifically created for situations like this...


Your country is so broke that your creditors are slapping Kenya with fines for defaulting over the last 4 years even with 2 IMF programs and debt relief.

Is that why Kenya's are rushing in Ghana for prostitution?

A dead animal is food for vultures, hyenas and eventually bacteria. Dont think you dead economy will not attract debt vultures, AID workers, IMF undertakers and whole litany of that industry. Some will be coming to create news and content on how much cedis you need to buy bread in the morning and in afternoon!

Just40:
Is it Hyperinflation that is driving lot of Kenyans to Ghana to come and hustle ?

Or they are just escaping their miserable lives in Kenya for something better in Ghana?

If you managed Oil & Gold - you won't have to borrow.
Always remember the money you borrow is someone money
They are loaning it at profit to you.
So we need to be careful and watch the country bottomlines - debt to gdp - etc.
Way before you get into trouble.

Anyway that problem with democracy - you have to compete on projects launched, kilometres of roads - and everyone just end up borrowing - and pushing the can down to next regime.

Just40:
All the projects initiated will all be completed...
Anyone who know Ghanaian political scene knows that most times projects are intentionally delay in order to be used for political campaigns..

This is some of the reasons why the living standard of a Ghanaian is twice yo thrice as better because we are not afraid to provide better infrastructure for every Ghanaian.

Try that and maybe Kenyans will advance

Look at leading indicators madman. Not lagging.You can't afford to repay debt. The default now is inevitable. Where will you get the dollars.

Talk Nicely to Nigerian here - one may take you to wash their dogs or teach their kids better English.

Just40:
Ghana hasn't defaulted on any of it debt obligations... We are not Kenya


Not every country is runned like the way Kenya is stupidly being runned by fools such that even all the relief that Ghana negotiated for Kenya, you guys still managed to default on your debt.

Madman - and the usual madness. You are facing hyperinflation. The last one send you to Nigeria. Prepare to cross borders and become Nigeria slaves

Just40:
You're just dumb.... It was one of the smart things to do..


While you kept using COVID as an excuse, it had little to no effect here

They will never be complete now. My formeramerican colleaque told me Ghana is mortuary of half-completed projects.USAID first assignment when they get US peace corps in Ghana is to take them to tour them .

You were over-ambitious - and thought you could take money - and use it. You need to think about lean times. It not easy as just taking money out there

Just40:
Yes... On projects

There are too many projects dotted around the country and at various stages of completion

At least you get it.

Few years ago some Zambia woman economist Dambisa Moyo wrote some best seller Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There is Another Way for Africa (2009), spinning usual conspiracy against ODA/bilateral lending & blaming it for Africa underdevelopment and urged Africans to dump IMF/WB - go for Eurobond/Debt market. Her country Zambia was the first to gorge themselves with it. They are bankrupt as we speak. They did a soverign default last year and need 8.5B dollars from IMF. That is about half their GDP to emerge from the dark hole.

Next Ghana and rest of countries followed. Eurobond is easy to get - mostly 10 times oversubscribed - because even if you default - they are debt vultures out there who will buy and wait you out

Ghana biggest mistake was to not think about lean times like COVID/Wars - this what makes commercial loans in dollars very dangerous - because overnight they double, triple, quadriple - before you even factor interest payments - because you have no control over dollars & bond interest rate - soon your credit score get big hit - nobody can lend you - you default and start a catalytic process like you saw in Lebanon & SriLaka or Greece & Argentina before.

Africa countries should take cheap IMF/WB/China loans - concessional low maturity low or even zero interest loans which could pass for AID- as much as they can possibly get - and take very little Eurobond (commercial loans)

GeneralDae:
Yeah that Eurobond thing was dicey. Only Egypt took more Eurobond than Ghana in Africa. In terms of Eurobond debts related to GDP, Ghana was by far the highest Eurobond subscriber in Africa. This is a big lesson for all African countries. The shocks that go with these debts sometimes not worth it.

Ghana I warned you!!! Look like by time IMF deal is decided in January - tears will be overflowing.

Steve Hanke
@steve_hanke
Thanks to the sky-high cost of living, Ghanaians don't know the price of anything anymore. Now, over 30% of businesses in the export & import industry have COLLAPSED. Today, I measure #Ghana's inflation at a stunning 101%/yr.

Common sense again. Use private message or email. Anything you post here - we will respond whenever we feel like - and you cant do anything about it. Use private message if you want to exclude others from conversation. COMMON SENSE.

theenchanter:
I was talking to a sensible person, not you.

That is always implied. We dont have to be explicit about common sense. Always divided by 4 - or times 4 - depending on indicator before you declare Nigeria is better, at par or worse than Kenya. Otherwise if we compare kenya with Namibia - we would win all arguments except everyone knows Namibians are doing better than us.

You dont tell someone with 5 common senses whether they can see or hear - it's out there - see it.

theenchanter:
wait for per Capita....

Hyperinflation starting to kick in Ghana as supermarkets prepare to jack prizes every few hours

Jonas Nyabor
@jnyabor
Some marts are taking off price tags on their products? As in, the prices change almost every other day and so for the day's price you need to check from the pay counter.

Ghana's cost of living crisis is not a joke!

Ghana and Zambia default was easy to predict - as they gorged themselves with dangerous eurobond (commercial dollar debt with flexible exchange rate - very risky very dangerous)

I did this four years ago - repeated in 2020 - 2021 - they didnt listen

Now they are desperate for IMF. I pray they get IMF deal because the alternative is very bad.

You starting to sound like KaziKazi with one chart. Yes growth matters - Kenya banks are growing 20% in capital & assets - while Nigeria arent (unless they are mergers) - and we havent factored the Naira has depreciated more than KShs (black market rate now trending to 800 naira to a dollar

So by end of this year - things will again change - with Kenya banks rising across the board.

obaaderemi:
This is your usual hairsplitting tactics.
We're talking top10 by such things as assets and capital, not peripheral things like growth percent. You always have to dig deep, very deep before you can be a little comfortable. At Least Nigerian banks appeared on all the charts you showed.
Point out a Kenyan bank in this chart:

Ghana run by a bunch of imbeciles did what nobody could imagine doing.
With COVID-19 disrupting global economy and occasioning economic shutdown
They went out there and borrowed commercial loans from Eurobond.
1st in Feb 2020 - they got 3B dollars.
March 2021 - they went again 3B dollars.
At this point - every rational Gov knew the exogenous risk from COVID/Ukraine war made such borrowing very risky.
Kenya and Nigeria were shopping for cheap IMF loans. Heck even South African run to IMF.
Kenya gov even squeezed in a debt moratorium during covid from G-20 debt relief
Ghana said nope - such actions will lower our credit rating - and we want to continue gorging ourself with free Eurobond dollars!!!!!!!!!
Ghana refused the commonsensical prudent approach - and dived head on to the risky waters- when nobody else.
Now it's tears.
The same Credit Ratings have now declared Ghana C minus. JUNK. Like Sri Lank/Lebanon/Argentina.
Defaulting is almost inevitable now.

Here are their own Ministry of Finance very happy to be 1st Sub-Sahara Africa country to float Eurobond in corona period

They didnt care the risks that external commercial loans like Eurobond would bring
1) Forex exchange risk - with CEDIS now dropping almost 100% dollar - the debt has doubled 100%.
2) Interest rate risk - commercial interest rise anytime - I think Ghana is now paying 20% plus

IMF was created to reduce such risk because they give you concessional loan with long maturity and often zero interest.

https://mofep.gov.gh/press-release/2021-03-30/global-investors-demonstrate-strong-support-for-ghana-fiscal-plans-and-revitalization-strategy
Ghana returned to the International Debt Capital Markets as the first Sub-Saharan African Sovereign to issue in USD since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, achieving a record size in excess of US$3 billion and enhancing its market access through the use of a 4-year Zero-Coupon Tranche, which is an innovative market-oriented solution to address post-covid-19 challenges and improve the cash flow required for debt servicing.

Try say that in Twi. Maybe the sense is lost in translation. It doesn't make sense.

Just40:
failure of govt to achieve it revenue target because of a delay in various production unit coming online... This was the trigger to the suspension of access to debt market

Something like this is more sensible Obaboon. We need to stick to intellectually stimulating conversation in this thread. You have are now not any different from Samrobo.

obaaderemi:
Kenya? Top ten in ranking of Africa's banks? Impossicant.
Don't mind that tortured soul. He's probably right now combing the internet to disclaim this fact.

why dont you copy everything - that would help show you kenya banks are fast rising - and i expect Equity & KCB to overtake all Nigerian banks in 3-4yrs - despite coming from a large pond.
https://www.thebanker.com/World/Africa/The-Banker-s-Top-100-African-Banks-2022?ct=true

obaaderemi:
By capital, it's already in top 10

Every currency in world has depreciated by average 8% to the USD - and that is exactly where Kenya is - it's moved from 115 to a dollar to 120 to a dollar. That Nigeria would kill for. The rest sounds like desperation for company in the misery corner.

obaaderemi:
8% drop against the dollar for a country that depends mainly on imports is also bad. Inflation is rising in Kenya too, tell us if you think it's going down. If it's going up then you have nothing to celebrate.

You are already begging the imf for loans again. You are begging China to renegotiate payment of your debt to them. You are not much better than Ghana is doing. Your economy is in trouble.

By capital - by Assets - Zenith still far away from entering top 10.

obaaderemi:
It's hard to be found in this hallowed company.

Top 10 banks in Africa.....

I am not sure how this will go - but technically - we are now allowed to work six months away from duty station - so I will likely spend most of the winter in kenya. I think most people will try to avoid winter. Definitely I will try to stay in Kenya Jan-March.

kikuyu1:
Btw, Mzee for you and anyone else in Oyinboland you're now well into Autumn on the way to winter: you know what that means!
In these upside down times ONLY more f'ery and very likely mass trauma unseen since WW2 Europe with the J/Uke thing.
Already the Swiss,Germans and Dutch leaders are advising on limiting showers and stockpiling firewood.

De Volkskrant: Due to rising gas prices, Dutch residents began to buy firewood
https://newsunrolled.com/economy/71104.html



The inevitable consequences are terrifying- faced with freezing citizens who they already don't give a rat EFF about your survival as a black foreigner may be definitely problematic.
Pls,organise a contingency plan now! When and if the freeze happens Dutch,Belgian,Swiss and German citizens abandoned by their respective governments will ofc be concerned primarily with their own people. Idk if it'll be a purge type situation;it may very well be- I only know if this path continues there may well be a real life W European Ice Age.

It may be wiser to wait out the war here til Putin wins early next year. Everyone else in WE you've seen or should've seen the leaders of those liberal democracies don't even pretend to give an EFF for THEIR OWN-what about you?

1) Kshs has lost as much ground as every world currency has lost to the dollar - about 7-8%. Less said about Naira the better
2) Inflation is still single digit. Less said about Nigeria inflation the better.
3) Chinese & external loans are under control. We long put the brakes
4) Kenya macro-economics have and will always be solid - because our Treasury has smart folks who took Helios to cleaners.
-> Data from the Treasury show China's total lending dropped to $6.83 billion in June from $7.05 billion a year ago and $3 billion in 2016.

obaaderemi:
Your little India is also inching towards Ghana's level. Your currency is losing value and inflation is rising. The Chinese are calling in their loans. By the end of the year you will be in similar straits.

When did you determine that is 2-3 times more expensive to live in Kenya? Our inflation is single digit. Yours is forever double digit.

obaaderemi:
Nonsense as usual. You are suffering from Stockholm disease. Basic salary in Kenya and Nigeria are similar if you factor in cost of living. Your politicians are doing you in and out of shame you are here praising them.

External debt/reserves
Nigeria looks good - limited exposure to external shocks.
Ghana most vulnerable

Africa - fiscal deficit & gov debt.
Nigeria debt is fast rising - seems to have double 38% in 4yrs - and their GDP is fake - gov revenues low
Ghana did the same kind of thing - 4yrs - it has doubled from 47 percent to 90 percent.
Kenya once it reached 68 percent - seem to have put a brake on borrowing. Exact same scenario with South Africa.

IMF Projections | 2023

Angola��: 3.4%
Côte d’Ivoire��: 6.5%
DR Congo��: 6.4%
Ethiopia��: 5.3%
Ghana��: 2.8%
Kenya��: 5.1%
Nigeria��: 3.0%
Rwanda��: 6.7%
Senegal��: 8.1%
South Africa��: 1.1%
Tanzania��: 5.2%
Uganda��: 4.9%
Zambia��: 4.0%
Zimbabwe��: 2.8%

Ghana and Zambia have been twins forever. They are democratic, peaceful, have natural resources, appear even progressive but can't seem to handle their macro-economics. This historic problem since their independence. It resource curse problem of Africa..when gold or copper is doing well..they overbrow...next minute they are down. And with history of hyperinflation - it's hard to fix that. Any small economic headiwnds or turbulence...everyone panics and dollarize.

Zambia over-indulged in eurobond. They defaulted last year. The new president is a reformist - understand economics - and has prevented a catastrophe - and they are well on a mend. Their debt to GDP is now 133% - and they need 8.5B dollars loan from IMF. Tough luck but they choose a good leader.

Ghana problems starts with an idiot for a president who swore never to go to IMF - more like Nkurumah did in 1960s and was kicked out by army as the country started to descend into chaos. If they retain the dwarf cartoon president - with that irritating voice - they are done.

obaaderemi:
I really don't know what happened to Ghana. They have a small population and natural resources. I have a feeling lack of investment and the unbridled debts did them in.