₦airaland Forum

Madcow and the usual madness.

Just40:
You're talking as if 24.1% of Kenya budget is not foreign aid dependent

Jan 20, 2022 — In the current financial year, on-budget development cooperation constitutes. 8% of the public budget.

Kenya was in that position 30yrs ago - maybe 1999 - when budget support from AID was that high.

You've made progress esp with magufuli going rogue - it used to be 60% of Tanzania budget was foreign aid

Kazikazi:
where did u check those lies? Prove them here.

Nigeria with all the Oil still have begging bowl out.

Kazikazi:
khekhekhekhekhekhekhekhekhekhe

The zoo will hunt for Nigerian parentage footballer born and raised abroad; never their intellectuals; a zoo

Dollars or cedis

Just40:
fortunate enough, Ghana GDP will be 84 billion by end of year

Leading indicators we already beat Nigeria.
Where you see problems - we see opportunities.
That is why DRC and Ethiopia are game changes.
We turn barren kenya into opportunities.
We have a proven model.

samorobo:
DRC is a shiithole with about $50bn and zero sustainable industry. To put it straight it’s a failed state. Ethiopia with her problems is almost close to DRC,coupled either about $100bn for 120m people and recent crisis here and there.

There is no future in those places,heck you would loose your shirt before your first branch goes up.

Again,beat Nigeria before coming to brag about your visionary future. Getting on that argument with you is a waste of anybody time. You know why? Cos it’s doesn’t exist. Wake up already and stop acting a fool.

Let see if you will make right choice this election after electing a goat Buhari.
We dont need Iweala because we got them in 1960s.
We send the likes of Obama father to Harvard in 1960s.
They came and headed Kenya Treasury taking over from Oxford trained white folks.
We did Africa first airlift to America in late 50s and early 60s thanks to legendary Thomas Odhiambo Mboya.
He took brilliant kids to US ivy league.
They came from Harvard, Stanford, name them and run gov.
We have managed to stay above the fray despite having no minerals because we recognise and reward brains.
Nigeria after military - many of your folks went abroad...got good education.
They are stuck in diaspora.
Bring them back...let them help you fix the country.
OIL will never do it...brains will do it.
Okonjo brains alone saved you 36 Billion dollars in debt forgiveness..
She didnt mine any oil..she mined her brains.

obaaderemi:
Before Buhari there was Obasanjo and Jonathan. And after Buhari there's going to be another southerner, so I don't know what you are saying. We would have lent you iweala but she is heading the wto right now. Soludo would have been a better choice but he is right now a state governor.

So, you are pretty much on your own with your miniscule banking industry.

Let do pictures for your sake.

Here is Nandi Hills Kenya

QuietMynd:
So 70% is steady to u

Nobody in world will listen to a fool like Soludo - Okonjo MIT & Harvard 1st grade brain is sitting pretty in WTO - 1st woman to do so. Soludo is typical Nigeria con.

And I couldnt agree more with Okonjo Iweala... he could well be describing Obabaoon here and typical nigerian.

Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala, apparently livid, described the former CBN governor as “an embittered loser in the Nigerian political space” who is “so derailed” to “commit intellectual harakiri by deliberately misquoting economic facts and maliciously turning statistics on their head to justify a hatchet job”.

“Soludo has shamelessly pandered to so many past leaders that Nigerians are asking one more time – what position is Soludo gunning for now?” she asked.

“There is definitely an issue of character with Prof. Charles Soludo and his desperate search for power and relevance in Nigeria. Nigerians should therefore beware of so-called intellectuals without character and wisdom because this combination is fatal,” she adde

GeneralDae:
Okonjo Iweala didn't do that.

Okay let do this.
Obasanjo did it.
Okonjo did it
Soludo did it.
The brains everyone knows was Okonjo Iweala.
If you could only tap her and many nigeria brains.
You wont be such a zoo.
Problem -> Your northern goats and sheep and cows rule you.
Buhari

obaaderemi:
Zenith our number 1 bank never merged with any bank. It has always and will always be bigger than any kenyan
bank. And okonjo iweala had nothing to do with banking consolidation in Nigeria. That was Charles soludo. We can lend him to you to help you reform your weak banking sector.

You're almost 30yrs late. East Africa is an Africa success story that began about 20-30yrs ago. Sustainable fast growth not financed by minerals. It already caught up with West Africa (Minerals), has overtaken Central Africa (Minerals), and is on heels of Southern Africa(Mostly Minerals). North Africa is far ahead.

If you bring DRC (100M) plus Ethiopia(120M); you already have Nigeria before you add the traditional East Africa. That is why Kenya banks have the ability to beat your Banks 2-3 times.

DRC congo already has given them almost equal footing to Nigerians banks. Next is Ethiopia. That should take them closer to South Africa.

samorobo:
There is no money in east and Central Africa. How many times do you need to be told that. This regions are the poorest and the armpits of Africa. You would loose your shirt before your first anniversary there.


However when that happen(will never happen) come and hit us let’s us celebrate you, otherwise is just you romanticizing a wet dream.

Stop troubling this thread with your day dreams and aspiring vision. Make it happen first.

And just wait for one more year --> Ethiopia is about to happen.

The same week Abiy Ahmed announced that his cabinet has agreed to a draft proposal that would open Ethiopia’s banking sector to foreign investors.

--> These gaps in lending, financial inclusion and foreign investment are also what has made Ethiopia’s banking sector attractive to foreign investors. Kenyan banks, for example, have had their sights on the Ethiopian market for years. Two of Kenya’s largest banks, KCB Bank and Equity Bank, already have representative offices in the country that carry out trade or export finance activities while waiting for the Ethiopian government to implement reforms to allow them to do more.

Only because Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala forced your broke banks to merge. You have what - 16 banks now. Kenya has 40 Banks. I think more than 10 are now in Africa Top 100.

obaaderemi:
Nigeria. 6
Kenya. 3.

You should be catching up with south africa and egypt - not waiting for smaller country - 4 times smaller in pop and twice in land mass - without minerals - surpass you - as is very likely.

obaaderemi:
As usual. Always waiting to catch up.
Gallipig, look at the specimen you were hailing.
Kikuyu1 is wiser now. He no longer follows this punk blindly.

The rand recovered. Nominal GDP remain at USd level. If rand had not recovered - South Africa GDP would have dropped like Angola from 140 to 70B - and now it's climbed back to 125B.

Ghana with 50% external debt - how does the weakening of CEDIS not affect you debt. You'll soon have 200 % gdp to debt - without any extra borrowing. That is how countries go down.

Just40:
You did this same nonsense with the South Africans and you were educated here on how GDP calculations work.

Don't repeat same dumb excuse.

Last year it was 82% and this year's August, it dropped to 68%

Next excuse

I think IMF need to revise this - your nominal GDP has sunk by half - meaning your debt to gdp is now more than Zambia.
I dont think anybody predicted this crazy month in Ghana

Last year it was 82 percent.

Stubborn facts.

Just40:
--ranting of a madman

I put chart out there today from IMF. Your debt to GDP is next to Zambia (113) - Ghana(95%). Kenya is steady at 69% for last few years.
Our 115B dollars economy generate 20B dollars plus in revenues annually.
We can re-pay our debt.
Your economy can barely collect 5B dollars.

Just40:
You're just not smart kiddo ... You don't seem to know why you borrow ...

Yet Ghana has a better debt to GDP than Kenya and Kenya has no means of being able to repay it debt at the moment and that is why youre defaulting on all your obligations.

You have an obligation of 12 billion next year because of how stupidly your country borrowed to spend on nothing.

Which bank? Bank of Ghana? Do you even understand the role of a central banker?

Kenya Central Bank is independently and proffesionally run - and always almost make profit.

Kenya's central bank pays $33 million dividend to state
Sep 30, 2022 — The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) on Friday announced that it has paid the Treasury a Ksh4 billion ($33 million) dividend to the state.

samorobo:
When your bank surpasses ours then come back for this conversation,otherwise you are just splitting hairs abd heckling.
Sounds like a wet dream to me. We are talking present abd you are talking about a future they doesn’t exist. Can’t you see how daft you sound.

Leading indicators
50% depreciation this month=HyperInflation.
Prize removed from supermarkets
Business closed because traders cant figure out the hell
Importers have shut down.
Bond has been classified as Junk.
Credit rating is now C -

Kenya has not defaulted on any loan - and we are okay - we took the early warnings seriously - and we are fortunate Ruto is now president - and is fixing the problem head on.

You never heed any warnings until it's too late.

Just40:
So you agree we haven't defaulted on any of our debt obligations

You're just too stupid... Ghana debt obligation for 2023 is 3 billion dollars and half year inflows into Ghana sinking fund was 1.5 billion dollars. A fund specifically created for situations like this...


Your country is so broke that your creditors are slapping Kenya with fines for defaulting over the last 4 years even with 2 IMF programs and debt relief.

Is that why Kenya's are rushing in Ghana for prostitution?

A dead animal is food for vultures, hyenas and eventually bacteria. Dont think you dead economy will not attract debt vultures, AID workers, IMF undertakers and whole litany of that industry. Some will be coming to create news and content on how much cedis you need to buy bread in the morning and in afternoon!

Just40:
Is it Hyperinflation that is driving lot of Kenyans to Ghana to come and hustle ?

Or they are just escaping their miserable lives in Kenya for something better in Ghana?

If you managed Oil & Gold - you won't have to borrow.
Always remember the money you borrow is someone money
They are loaning it at profit to you.
So we need to be careful and watch the country bottomlines - debt to gdp - etc.
Way before you get into trouble.

Anyway that problem with democracy - you have to compete on projects launched, kilometres of roads - and everyone just end up borrowing - and pushing the can down to next regime.

Just40:
All the projects initiated will all be completed...
Anyone who know Ghanaian political scene knows that most times projects are intentionally delay in order to be used for political campaigns..

This is some of the reasons why the living standard of a Ghanaian is twice yo thrice as better because we are not afraid to provide better infrastructure for every Ghanaian.

Try that and maybe Kenyans will advance

Look at leading indicators madman. Not lagging.You can't afford to repay debt. The default now is inevitable. Where will you get the dollars.

Talk Nicely to Nigerian here - one may take you to wash their dogs or teach their kids better English.

Just40:
Ghana hasn't defaulted on any of it debt obligations... We are not Kenya


Not every country is runned like the way Kenya is stupidly being runned by fools such that even all the relief that Ghana negotiated for Kenya, you guys still managed to default on your debt.

Madman - and the usual madness. You are facing hyperinflation. The last one send you to Nigeria. Prepare to cross borders and become Nigeria slaves

Just40:
You're just dumb.... It was one of the smart things to do..


While you kept using COVID as an excuse, it had little to no effect here

They will never be complete now. My formeramerican colleaque told me Ghana is mortuary of half-completed projects.USAID first assignment when they get US peace corps in Ghana is to take them to tour them .

You were over-ambitious - and thought you could take money - and use it. You need to think about lean times. It not easy as just taking money out there

Just40:
Yes... On projects

There are too many projects dotted around the country and at various stages of completion

At least you get it.

Few years ago some Zambia woman economist Dambisa Moyo wrote some best seller Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There is Another Way for Africa (2009), spinning usual conspiracy against ODA/bilateral lending & blaming it for Africa underdevelopment and urged Africans to dump IMF/WB - go for Eurobond/Debt market. Her country Zambia was the first to gorge themselves with it. They are bankrupt as we speak. They did a soverign default last year and need 8.5B dollars from IMF. That is about half their GDP to emerge from the dark hole.

Next Ghana and rest of countries followed. Eurobond is easy to get - mostly 10 times oversubscribed - because even if you default - they are debt vultures out there who will buy and wait you out

Ghana biggest mistake was to not think about lean times like COVID/Wars - this what makes commercial loans in dollars very dangerous - because overnight they double, triple, quadriple - before you even factor interest payments - because you have no control over dollars & bond interest rate - soon your credit score get big hit - nobody can lend you - you default and start a catalytic process like you saw in Lebanon & SriLaka or Greece & Argentina before.

Africa countries should take cheap IMF/WB/China loans - concessional low maturity low or even zero interest loans which could pass for AID- as much as they can possibly get - and take very little Eurobond (commercial loans)

GeneralDae:
Yeah that Eurobond thing was dicey. Only Egypt took more Eurobond than Ghana in Africa. In terms of Eurobond debts related to GDP, Ghana was by far the highest Eurobond subscriber in Africa. This is a big lesson for all African countries. The shocks that go with these debts sometimes not worth it.

Ghana I warned you!!! Look like by time IMF deal is decided in January - tears will be overflowing.

Steve Hanke
@steve_hanke
Thanks to the sky-high cost of living, Ghanaians don't know the price of anything anymore. Now, over 30% of businesses in the export & import industry have COLLAPSED. Today, I measure #Ghana's inflation at a stunning 101%/yr.

Common sense again. Use private message or email. Anything you post here - we will respond whenever we feel like - and you cant do anything about it. Use private message if you want to exclude others from conversation. COMMON SENSE.

theenchanter:
I was talking to a sensible person, not you.

That is always implied. We dont have to be explicit about common sense. Always divided by 4 - or times 4 - depending on indicator before you declare Nigeria is better, at par or worse than Kenya. Otherwise if we compare kenya with Namibia - we would win all arguments except everyone knows Namibians are doing better than us.

You dont tell someone with 5 common senses whether they can see or hear - it's out there - see it.

theenchanter:
wait for per Capita....

Hyperinflation starting to kick in Ghana as supermarkets prepare to jack prizes every few hours

Jonas Nyabor
@jnyabor
Some marts are taking off price tags on their products? As in, the prices change almost every other day and so for the day's price you need to check from the pay counter.

Ghana's cost of living crisis is not a joke!

Ghana and Zambia default was easy to predict - as they gorged themselves with dangerous eurobond (commercial dollar debt with flexible exchange rate - very risky very dangerous)

I did this four years ago - repeated in 2020 - 2021 - they didnt listen

Now they are desperate for IMF. I pray they get IMF deal because the alternative is very bad.

You starting to sound like KaziKazi with one chart. Yes growth matters - Kenya banks are growing 20% in capital & assets - while Nigeria arent (unless they are mergers) - and we havent factored the Naira has depreciated more than KShs (black market rate now trending to 800 naira to a dollar

So by end of this year - things will again change - with Kenya banks rising across the board.

obaaderemi:
This is your usual hairsplitting tactics.
We're talking top10 by such things as assets and capital, not peripheral things like growth percent. You always have to dig deep, very deep before you can be a little comfortable. At Least Nigerian banks appeared on all the charts you showed.
Point out a Kenyan bank in this chart:

Ghana run by a bunch of imbeciles did what nobody could imagine doing.
With COVID-19 disrupting global economy and occasioning economic shutdown
They went out there and borrowed commercial loans from Eurobond.
1st in Feb 2020 - they got 3B dollars.
March 2021 - they went again 3B dollars.
At this point - every rational Gov knew the exogenous risk from COVID/Ukraine war made such borrowing very risky.
Kenya and Nigeria were shopping for cheap IMF loans. Heck even South African run to IMF.
Kenya gov even squeezed in a debt moratorium during covid from G-20 debt relief
Ghana said nope - such actions will lower our credit rating - and we want to continue gorging ourself with free Eurobond dollars!!!!!!!!!
Ghana refused the commonsensical prudent approach - and dived head on to the risky waters- when nobody else.
Now it's tears.
The same Credit Ratings have now declared Ghana C minus. JUNK. Like Sri Lank/Lebanon/Argentina.
Defaulting is almost inevitable now.

Here are their own Ministry of Finance very happy to be 1st Sub-Sahara Africa country to float Eurobond in corona period

They didnt care the risks that external commercial loans like Eurobond would bring
1) Forex exchange risk - with CEDIS now dropping almost 100% dollar - the debt has doubled 100%.
2) Interest rate risk - commercial interest rise anytime - I think Ghana is now paying 20% plus

IMF was created to reduce such risk because they give you concessional loan with long maturity and often zero interest.

https://mofep.gov.gh/press-release/2021-03-30/global-investors-demonstrate-strong-support-for-ghana-fiscal-plans-and-revitalization-strategy
Ghana returned to the International Debt Capital Markets as the first Sub-Saharan African Sovereign to issue in USD since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, achieving a record size in excess of US$3 billion and enhancing its market access through the use of a 4-year Zero-Coupon Tranche, which is an innovative market-oriented solution to address post-covid-19 challenges and improve the cash flow required for debt servicing.