Rvp2018's Posts
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Ghana is better country than Nigeria - because of it's liberal economy. The problem is macro-economic - their gov just misbehave and have never heard of prudent economic management. I guess it problem with democracy - where gov overpromises and has to deliver by borrowing aggressively. I doubt you produce salt; from my reading; Ghana and Senegal; I think you import salt from all over - mostly South Africa & Namibia. Salt producers in Africa are mainly South Africa, Kenya, Namibia, Ghana and Senegal GeneralDae2: |
China or India are new import sources of kenya - previously we got everything almost from Britain & Eu. Consumers are always looking for best deal - it could be England today - Hong Kong tomorrow - China - Bangladesh - Veitnam.Soon it will be kenya. Gov job is not to go for easy way out - ban imports - and force people shoulder inefficient industries. Gov job is to encourage Chinese and Indian companies to come to kenya - build industries here - and sell their stuff here cheaply. In meantime local capacity by local kenyans is slowly building up - and eventually they compete. Few more years - Kenya local indigenous companies - expand regionally - and few more years globally. Gov job is to fix infrastructure, electricity, water and security so it become cheaper for Indian or Chinese companies to manufacture in Nigeria as step 1. Step 2 is for Dangotes to emerge. Nigeria simply bans imports. Dangote who was selling salt then become industrialist - but selling products very expensively as he cannot manufacture them efficiently. The results - 15yrs before this banning - Nigerians (on the street) were probably richer than now. The results of taking short cuts. GeneralDae2: |
You dont sustain a sector as insurance against some future external risks. You build resilience into your economy so you can wistand such shocks. This can only happen through magic of capitalism - brutal competition as much as possible If we get sanctioned - we can build those industries from the scratch very quickly - because we will have capital, knowhow & it will be profitable. But we cannot sustain a fake Google just in case Google is banned. We should be able to spin our own in few months if it become necessary. The protected ineffienct industries destroy the economy - and make it very susceptible to external shocks Once you allow market economy to work - local companies will compete - and become regional or even global giants. And that become insurance against local economy problems. For example when Kenya economy tanked in 1990s - because we were facing sanctions due to Moi dictatorship - we re-started EAC. EAC had died in 1977 due to petty difference - and it came back in 1997. So in 1990s - Uganda and Tanzania economies were booming - growing at 7-10 percent - while Kenya was sick Kenya companies moved to EAC from 1998 and were able to survive until our economy started to boom again from 2005. Fourpockets: |
Why would that be a problem? Fourpockets: |
It's interest of industry owners and employers - versus - the interest of the 210 million nigerians. Which one come first - Dangote or your own mother in the village buying dirty cheap cements for almost 10 dollars. Does your mother care whether cement is from Dangote or where she can get more saving of her money? As long China is not dumping - products to us - it's better for us to import - as we figure out how to compete. We cannot protect the rights of industry owners at expense of consumers.. Infact industries should be protected for a specific period...so they can grow...and compete with others. The mental block that Nigeria farmer or company cannot compete with Indian or Chinese need to go. If it's cement - why can't Dangote not produce it cheaply - it limestone and electricity (which he can generate). GeneralDae2: |
If they relax immigration laws; they should be fine; but they are racist. When fertility rate fall below 2 percent - then you cant replace - and you only option is to allow immigration. Meantime this list of hopeless countries in Africa still breeding like rats. Fourpockets:
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There is nothing one can learn from Nigeria. We are going the opposite way. We are allowing duty free entry of goods from East Africa Goods, COMESA and AFCTA. That basically means Kenya companies have to be competitive at very least regionally. Let them close shops, find something we can be competitive in, and the consumer is the king. The results is obvious - Kenya companies having been exposed to very thorough competition at home - have expanded. They are regionally the kings - of industry - in about 10 countries. The industries that are protected are very very few - for specific period - because we expect we can and should compete with China or India. This why Kenya is making huge strides forward despite having no oil or large arable land. In the meantime Nigeria is world poverty capital, infrastructure is completely broken, gov cannot get taxes, social investment is zero (out of school kids staggering), insecurity & kidnapping the order of the day. This all because the economy is failing the majority And working for a few Northern Elite like Dangote. When it come to SMES - how are they going to be profitable - when access to credit is at 30% per annum at minimum, when cost of doing business is horrendous (they have to run a generator) & when economy is not free (they cannot go to Benin or Ghana or China to sources for cheapest stuff because they cant get dollars at same rate as Dangote or neither are they allowed). The results of Nigeria messed up economics - despite OIL - POVERTY - and few DANGOTES GeneralDae2: |
And then you wonder why Nigeria is poverty HQ of the world. Protecting all these inefficient local industries cost your economy a lot. It creates few rich Dangote's who own such industries - and leave everyone pay expensively for stuff that are "dirty" cheap out there. It protects them from international competition. The biggest loser remains Nigeria consumer who is forced to buy all these 100 goods expansively despite them being of poor quality. GeneralDae2: |
At what point do we stop protecting infant industry? This Nigeria prohibition list is way too much - and has no exit clause. https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-prohibited-and-restricted-imports GeneralDae2: |
Import substitution is a failed policy. This was tried in Africa btw 1970-1990 - and it became a failure. IMF introduced SAP to fix that failure. South Asia went for export-oriented manufacturing mostly And whenever they did import substitution - they were strict timelines when industry was expected to be competitive. Mostly you need give local firms or farmers - something like 5yrs - if they cannot be globally competitive - allow imports. Otherwise, you're punishing 200 million consumers - to save 5 million rice farmers and millers. Protected infant industries - rarely work in an enviroment where corruption thrives - because those tarrifs/subsdies will remain forever. Look at Nigeria cement - Dangote & Nigeria is now "globally" competitive so much Dangote has invested all over Africa - but cement tarrifs/restriction - still persist in Nigeria.How does that even make sense? If Dangote can compete in South Africa or Ethiopia - why cant Nigeria allow almost duty free entry of cement - so Nigerians can get best deal GeneralDae2: |
IMF doesnt invite itself; you invite them; The country should try to as much as possible avoid IMF but when it's inevitable like Ghana now - you will have to welcome them - otherwise it will be like 1962 when Army kicked out Nkurumah and invited IMF - because the country will become another Zimbabwe - and dealing with hyperinflation is a mess. A huge mess I wouldnt want to wish on Ghana. It will take decades to come out of it. In short - stop long theories - invite IMF - you need them more than ever. If IMF deal doesnt come soon - Ghana will go bankrupt, cedis will be worthless and ensuing mess. After they are done with you - next time watch your macro-economics - dont go for debt binge again. You dont refuse to go to hospital when youre sick - next time you work on preventative measures TookDownYourMum: |
Orange of course dumped it after they incurred 700M (390M to purchase & another cash injection in loan to Telkom - later converted to Equity) plus loss of opportunity. They dumped it to Helios for a loss of 100M dollars. Helios bought it at 600M. Now Helios have dumped it at 50m...whoppping loss of 550M dollars. I dont know what they teach you in Nigeria - basic accounting - when Telkom kenya sells an asset - the shareholders being Kenya Gov and Helios - dont get paid - unless Telkom declared profit that year - and they get paid as dividend. Kenya gov would have cashed 30% of that 170M from American Towers - but we know it never cashed anything. The reason Telkom Kenya has been bankrupt for a long time. Now it's been valued at 10B kshs - and it surely will crawl out of its hole - now that it back to business.In terms of licensing - 24M is annual 4G license - the initial license cost Telkom - 50m (the amount the idiots Helios paid) https://www.itnewsafrica.com/2007/08/kenya-government-set-to-license-fourth-mobile-operator/ But Telkom Kenya will be required to pay a licence fee of $55 million (Sh3.9 billion) —similar to the amount paid by Safaricom and Celtel. Econet is being asked to pay $27 million . obaaderemi: |
Almost zero drop since 1950 it was 6.5 to now 5.5. Kenya has dropped from high of 8 to now close to 3. obaaderemi:
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obaaderemi:Kenya north is not densely populated like Nigeria north...even if they lag behind in many indicators there are not even 5% of Kenya population.. consisting of a million Turkana, two million Somalis & oromo and a million samburu Maasai... maybe another million pokots & such.Those are the tribes lagging behind otherwise Kenya is benefiting from huge investment in population control and planning.Kenya has highest contraceptive use in Africa.We have reduced births from 8 in 1980s to now almost 3.Nigeria still at almost 7..zero investment in family planning, contraceptive and education.That is why Kenya is at cusp of leapfrogging to high growth industrialization while Nigeria is 50yrs from it |
obaaderemi:You're rambling.Orange dumped it to Helios.Helios after seven years of losses wanted to sell out.Gok knowing they were desperate took their pre emptive right and bought it for cheap.Do you know a license for say 4G frequencies is more than 50m Helios got.Now Kenya gov have it after selling it for 26 billion buying it back at 6 billion... profit of 200m dollars...for a bankrupt company that orange and Helios sustained.Ruto was not involved at all in this..it's Uhuru.Ruto will now turn it around and sell it for more than a billion dollars in four years max. |
Maasai Mara- the wilderbest migration the 8th wonder of world - Kazikazi with large serengeti with imposible infrastructure unless you charter a flight might wish to disagree https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbqCXpmo15A&t=104s |
These Canadian couple now going three years have been to almost everywhere in Kenya shooting epic videos of kenya resorts and related. Just watching their videos of their time in Kenya - all over the country - you'd appreciate why Kenya is one of most beautiful place on earth and how incredibly lucky we are as kenyans to have all these facilities. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAVMXl04R-U&t=972s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmFOH0uStzs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yDKbk5Ny4U |
Very nice article explaining Kenya likely to leapfrog in a decade, followed by Rwanda, Uganda in two decades and Tanzania in 3 decades - Nigeria in about 5 decades from now. Combination of literacy, democracy, savings, investment, etc https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583723363507195904 When will countries in east Africa see their economies take-off, sustainably and with rapid GDP growth for decades? Kenya 1st Rwanda 2nd Uganda 3rd, Tanzania 4th, Burundi last. Unless government policies change Ethiopia a harder call One of best threads I’ve done
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Kenyans proudly wear the flag because we are very proud of our country. Your Zoo should fix basic like electricity first. samorobo:
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The Zoo talking about image The flooding in Nigeria is annual ritualhttps://onisdin.info/en/hydrology/flood-dynamics samorobo: |
We sold a sick cow - they have gone ahead and treated it - and sold it back for nothing - so we can sell it again. kenya gov should now sell Safaricom shareholding - and focus on fixing Telkom kenya. The whole digital economy that kenya gov want to do - Telkom can lead that - it need to be capitalized a little - and then allowed to work with KPLC to lay fiber alongside all the electricity lines - and they will be swimming in power. There is scope for proper telcom company dealing with backbone infrastructure - mostly fiber broadband. Ruto promised to lay 100,000 kilometres of internet fibre all over the country over five years. Shma2022: |
Yes that is part he doesnt understand. Kenya gov sold it for 380M for 40% stake. Orange group pumped another 300M cashflow - Kenya gov refused and Orange took their shareholding to 70%. So we sold it for 680M dollars - and have bought it back for 50M dollars. And Helios & Orange have cleaned it up - it's probably operationally profitable. Soon kenya Treasury will sell it for another 750M dollars. They left minus their shirts. https://www.ecofinagency.com/telecom/0410-43920-kenya-acquires-sole-ownership-in-telkom According to a source quoted by Business Daily Africa, the government exercised its pre-emptive rights after Helios informed it of its intention to leave Telkom. "We bought the shares because the government was afraid Helios was going to sell to an investor that did not share the same vision with us in the turnaround of Telkom Kenya," the source said. Shma2022: |
Demonstrate they're more than East Africa combined. obaaderemi: |
Helios had hit a jackpot with Equity - and exited prematurely - now Equity is racing to become Sub Saharan Africa biggest bank outside south africa Boneheaded... This takes Helios’ earnings from the bank to a total of Sh44.1 billion, quadrupling the Sh11 billion it paid in December 2007 to acquire the 24.99 per stake. The London-based PE firm also collected dividends totalling Sh6.5 billion from Equity, taking its total return on investment to 360.9 per cent or 24.3 per cent compounded annually. This makes it one of the highest returns earned by a PE firm in Kenya , underlining the lucrative earnings by such funds, which typically have a seven-year investment horizon. |
You cant even do the barest minimum of research. Helios - UK fund - not even Nigeria made boneheaded investment. Kenya has more PE/Venture funds than Nigeria. I have no problem with Helios - I just have a problem with their bone-headed decision to invest in Telkom. Their investment in Equity was genius. In 2007 they invested ($120.2 million) for 25% stake. In 2015 - they sold it for four times the amount - 500M - about 250M dollars for 12.5% stake to Norfund. The Norwegian still hold that 12.5% of Equity Group - brilliant japs. Now the Nigerian-Britons - made boneheaded decision - took 600M dollars - gave it to Orange group for 70 percent of bankrupt company whose liabilities far exceed it's asset. Now they have sold to Kenya gov for 50m dollars - that is height of stupidity and desperation. obaaderemi: |
Focus on manufacturing - not eggs or limestone or cassava or a yet to be built agor-cargo airport. You think you'll just build and fly cargo - by the time you get through the export certification in most countries - it will be year 2030. Show me how Ogun manufacturing is large. Start from here - MAN - Nigeria's Manufacturers assocation. https://www.manufacturersnigeria.org/MembersDirectory 68816419: |
Nonsense from Nigeria as always 68816419: |
Kenya electric motorbikes and bus conversion gather momentum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TynLsHHRAx0 |
The Zoo purporting to advise kenya on anything is crazy. Start here -https://www.hsnp.or.ke/ samorobo:
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Ghana is in bad place.Hyperinflation has kicked in; Only IMF stepping in with their loan as soon as possible will save them; by xmas we are looking at 30 cedis to a dollar; a collapsed formal economy; Shma2022: |
Kazikazi:I thought you were industrialized .. continue selling beans, maize and cashew nuts |
GeneralDae2:By watching news..that how I knew it was flooding and apart from Nigeria red cross the a 1.5 million victim are on their own.Kenya gov run an hunger safety net with school feeding program on annual basis of 200m dollars and for this drought it's sought funding now approaching half a billion dollars.Nigeria has zero budget for flooding or for post flooding repairs.The drought victim kills farmers and flood victim pull themselves by their bootstrap |
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you keep mentioning Dangote, as that's all you know.
- and it surely will crawl out of its hole - now that it back to business.