₦airaland Forum

Try say that in Twi. Maybe the sense is lost in translation. It doesn't make sense.

Just40:
failure of govt to achieve it revenue target because of a delay in various production unit coming online... This was the trigger to the suspension of access to debt market

Something like this is more sensible Obaboon. We need to stick to intellectually stimulating conversation in this thread. You have are now not any different from Samrobo.

obaaderemi:
Kenya? Top ten in ranking of Africa's banks? Impossicant.
Don't mind that tortured soul. He's probably right now combing the internet to disclaim this fact.

why dont you copy everything - that would help show you kenya banks are fast rising - and i expect Equity & KCB to overtake all Nigerian banks in 3-4yrs - despite coming from a large pond.
https://www.thebanker.com/World/Africa/The-Banker-s-Top-100-African-Banks-2022?ct=true

obaaderemi:
By capital, it's already in top 10

Every currency in world has depreciated by average 8% to the USD - and that is exactly where Kenya is - it's moved from 115 to a dollar to 120 to a dollar. That Nigeria would kill for. The rest sounds like desperation for company in the misery corner.

obaaderemi:
8% drop against the dollar for a country that depends mainly on imports is also bad. Inflation is rising in Kenya too, tell us if you think it's going down. If it's going up then you have nothing to celebrate.

You are already begging the imf for loans again. You are begging China to renegotiate payment of your debt to them. You are not much better than Ghana is doing. Your economy is in trouble.

By capital - by Assets - Zenith still far away from entering top 10.

obaaderemi:
It's hard to be found in this hallowed company.

Top 10 banks in Africa.....

I am not sure how this will go - but technically - we are now allowed to work six months away from duty station - so I will likely spend most of the winter in kenya. I think most people will try to avoid winter. Definitely I will try to stay in Kenya Jan-March.

kikuyu1:
Btw, Mzee for you and anyone else in Oyinboland you're now well into Autumn on the way to winter: you know what that means!
In these upside down times ONLY more f'ery and very likely mass trauma unseen since WW2 Europe with the J/Uke thing.
Already the Swiss,Germans and Dutch leaders are advising on limiting showers and stockpiling firewood.

De Volkskrant: Due to rising gas prices, Dutch residents began to buy firewood
https://newsunrolled.com/economy/71104.html



The inevitable consequences are terrifying- faced with freezing citizens who they already don't give a rat EFF about your survival as a black foreigner may be definitely problematic.
Pls,organise a contingency plan now! When and if the freeze happens Dutch,Belgian,Swiss and German citizens abandoned by their respective governments will ofc be concerned primarily with their own people. Idk if it'll be a purge type situation;it may very well be- I only know if this path continues there may well be a real life W European Ice Age.

It may be wiser to wait out the war here til Putin wins early next year. Everyone else in WE you've seen or should've seen the leaders of those liberal democracies don't even pretend to give an EFF for THEIR OWN-what about you?

1) Kshs has lost as much ground as every world currency has lost to the dollar - about 7-8%. Less said about Naira the better
2) Inflation is still single digit. Less said about Nigeria inflation the better.
3) Chinese & external loans are under control. We long put the brakes
4) Kenya macro-economics have and will always be solid - because our Treasury has smart folks who took Helios to cleaners.
-> Data from the Treasury show China's total lending dropped to $6.83 billion in June from $7.05 billion a year ago and $3 billion in 2016.

obaaderemi:
Your little India is also inching towards Ghana's level. Your currency is losing value and inflation is rising. The Chinese are calling in their loans. By the end of the year you will be in similar straits.

When did you determine that is 2-3 times more expensive to live in Kenya? Our inflation is single digit. Yours is forever double digit.

obaaderemi:
Nonsense as usual. You are suffering from Stockholm disease. Basic salary in Kenya and Nigeria are similar if you factor in cost of living. Your politicians are doing you in and out of shame you are here praising them.

External debt/reserves
Nigeria looks good - limited exposure to external shocks.
Ghana most vulnerable

Africa - fiscal deficit & gov debt.
Nigeria debt is fast rising - seems to have double 38% in 4yrs - and their GDP is fake - gov revenues low
Ghana did the same kind of thing - 4yrs - it has doubled from 47 percent to 90 percent.
Kenya once it reached 68 percent - seem to have put a brake on borrowing. Exact same scenario with South Africa.

IMF Projections | 2023

Angola��: 3.4%
Côte d’Ivoire��: 6.5%
DR Congo��: 6.4%
Ethiopia��: 5.3%
Ghana��: 2.8%
Kenya��: 5.1%
Nigeria��: 3.0%
Rwanda��: 6.7%
Senegal��: 8.1%
South Africa��: 1.1%
Tanzania��: 5.2%
Uganda��: 4.9%
Zambia��: 4.0%
Zimbabwe��: 2.8%

Ghana and Zambia have been twins forever. They are democratic, peaceful, have natural resources, appear even progressive but can't seem to handle their macro-economics. This historic problem since their independence. It resource curse problem of Africa..when gold or copper is doing well..they overbrow...next minute they are down. And with history of hyperinflation - it's hard to fix that. Any small economic headiwnds or turbulence...everyone panics and dollarize.

Zambia over-indulged in eurobond. They defaulted last year. The new president is a reformist - understand economics - and has prevented a catastrophe - and they are well on a mend. Their debt to GDP is now 133% - and they need 8.5B dollars loan from IMF. Tough luck but they choose a good leader.

Ghana problems starts with an idiot for a president who swore never to go to IMF - more like Nkurumah did in 1960s and was kicked out by army as the country started to descend into chaos. If they retain the dwarf cartoon president - with that irritating voice - they are done.

obaaderemi:
I really don't know what happened to Ghana. They have a small population and natural resources. I have a feeling lack of investment and the unbridled debts did them in.

There is only one of ex-president - and this cost of democracy -so leaders dont hang into office illegally.

The pension and related benefits apply to every gov parastal and they are taxable. Of course it more than Nigeria - because everyone in kenya earn three times what Nigeria do - policeman, teacher, nurse, army guy.

And now for Uhuru is already started work as peace envoy - although he is a failure domestically - maybe he can help

obaaderemi:
African leaders and their insane privileges in the midst of crushing poverty and biblical level suffering. This is even worse than Nigeria:

How did I even argue with a baboon like you for that long in stuff you can barely understand.

obaaderemi:
Will you ever for goodness sake stop lying!
And yes, no law says they can't keep the money unless they declared a profit. If there's any, kindly post it here.

Kenyans are law abiding citizen. In South Africa - and elsewhere - Tanzania are tagging along Nigerians - selling drugs.

Kazikazi:
UAE bans africans......
But what baffles me is how kenya is missing on a list


http://www.channelafrica.co.za/sabc/home/channelafrica/news/details?id=ce26b8d9-1f5b-4b42-8ed9-d109ca948d5f&title=UAE%20slams%20visa%20ban%20on%20all%20citizens%20of%20Nigeria,%20Ghana,%2017%20other%20African%20countries

They soon will not afford to buy bread leave alone internet bundles

obaaderemi:
The Ghanaians seem so quiet these days.

You are still expecting a bullet train - Those start at 250kms per hour.

Kazikazi:
Tanzania's shithole trains are on a way coming from Korea


I miss magufuli.

Dont get lost in details.
Airtel - got the subscriber - and from what I have seen they paid 100M dollars ( I total deal was 120M dollars) - that is I am telling even if you stripped Telkom of everything - it's 4 million subscribes - 4 times - would be worth 400M dollars.
Secondly understand BASIC financial accounting for god sake.
Kenya Gov has always been a shareholder of Telkom.
Kenya Gov started with 100% -it "invested" about 600M dollars to basically clean it up - this was mostly foregoing taxes and other such things.
Then it sold 51% of it to Orange - for 26B - dollars 350M plus then in 2007.
It got a premium of 6B (more than what Helios are paying in 2022 ) - because the 51% stake was valued at 20B kshs.
Again slowly - Orange started complaining that Kenya gov had lied to them.
They came up with restructuring plan - where each shareholder was to finance it - it had chalked up 48B Kshs in debt.
Kenya gov was to raise 49% of that - Orange 51%. This right issue - shareholders bring in more capital.
kenya gov "forgot" about it - Orange brought in another 300M dollars
The Loan to Telkom was therefore converted - their shareholding increase from 51 percent to 70%.
Again the were unhappy - as company was hopeless - Safaricom is behemoth.
They started looking for NEXT BIG FOOL.
In comes Helios - willing to pay 500-600M dollars. Orange told them they will even loan them money and arrange with European Investment Bank.
Helios dived in.But to stop kenya pre-emptive rights - they seceded 10 percent shareholding.
They found the same bankrupt company
They arrange for Telkom to take couple of loans - and keep it going.
Bankrupt again - shareholders - another restructuring plan - for 20B - say 200M dollars.
Kenya gov only gave 2.5B - it wasnt enough - so it was decided to sell assets- to offset liabilites - NOT to declare profit

Now long story short - sold for laughable 50M dollars.

Understand BASIC FUNDAMENTAL HIGH SCHOOL ACCOUNTING.

There are only two ways Helios could have made money from Telkom 1) Dividend 2) CAPITAL GAINS - when they eventually sold their shareholding. There is no evidence Telkom has ever made profit leave alone declared dividends. Kenya gov would declare the same as revenues to public kitty.

Even if Telkom sold everything - until it declares Profit After Tax - Helios were never going to get that money. Unless they corruptly participated in sale of assets....say undervalue the assets and engage in corruption. I doubt they'd dare do that. The fines they can get in London would kill them.

obaaderemi:
You know you really need to stop lying! Airtel and Safaricom paid$100m for YuMobile. It wasn't Safaricom that sold YuMobile to Airtel. It was a joint bid.

You either don't know anything about what's going on in your country or you are lying. That Telkom deal was a mistake on your government's part from the very beginning. They're just wasting poor Kenyan taxpayers money. Did you know your government gave all manners of shareholders loans to that company even though it held not more than 40% of the company. The foreign owners kept going back to your Treasury for financing and they kept getting it! Let me start with Orange. I'm beginning to think Orange kind of gave that company to Helios or asked the Nigerians for very little.
Happy reading:

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/telkom-a-textbook-case-of-privatisation-deal-gone-bad--1307654
Up to this year your silly government was still giving shareholders loans to Helios, a company that stopped investing in telkom since 2019. I told you, that $50m was just a bonus to the Nigerians. Probably your politicians are using Telkom to steal money in collaboration with these foreign partners.

You know nothing about Telcommunication. Let give example Yu a mobile provider had 1 million subscribers - it was sold for 100M dollars to Airtel - after it was stripped of Base Stations (sold to Safaricom).

Now Telkom kenya has nearly 4 million and control about 20% of kenya internet market. That is worthy close to 500M in my estimate. That value of its 4 million customers.

Helios got played. They helped sustained Telkom (they took loans including 40M dollars from , cleaned up it balance sheet (by selling assets to clear liablities - as we speak now I think they dont owe gov in tax areas & license fee).

They tried to sell it to Airtel - but gov blocked it over "security concerns" - and eventually gov got it for almost free - by pre-empting the sale- 50M dollars is free useless money in Telcommunication. Helios paid 600M dollars for this.

One switch is close to 10-20M dollar - ask Nokia or Erickson or Huawei. 50M in telecommunication for whopping 60% stake is give away.

If today Telkom decide to close shop - and sell it's 4 million subscribers - that is clean 400M dollars using Yu valuation - YU sold about a million subscribers to Airtel - and sold the base stations to Safaricom

https://www.eib.org/en/projects/pipelines/all/20170635

obaaderemi:
Getting $50m for a rust bucket you have looted out is a big deal. Helios really should be investigated. How can you, since 2019, stop investing in a company that continues to generate revenue?

Investment can either be through own savings or by leveraging other people savings by borrowing. Kenya for the last 10yrs has been doing a lot of borrowing cheap chinese money and some expensive Eurobonds.

Lack of savings is not lack of investment.

But obviously you soon hit a wall with borrowing (Ghana is good example) - and now kenya has to rebalance the economy by growing capital markets, pensions, insurances and whole of that investment spaces - and get more Helios venture /equity funds.

Helios have invested 1 billion dollars plus in kenya - and we didnt have to borrow - they came, they saw, invested, made profit or losses, and left

obaaderemi:
Nowhere did I say they were the same. But one impacts the other. If savings are low, other aspects are affected.

Buying any telkom company even without any asset for 50M is a steal.
That is why gok exercised their pre-emptive right.
Safaricom just paid 850M to be allowed in Ethiopia.
Telcom are big deal...and this one as long as it still going concern...is huge bargain.

obaaderemi:
You always resort to insults when you are losing.
Why would they not sell the scrap back when they already sucked it dry? Kenyas government is just stupid, wasting taxpayers money. $50m for a company with little tangible assets left? That's thievery.

About the 4g license, this is one of the nonsense you said:

Then out of desperation, you backed it up with a 2007 article talking about something else.

You were either lying or you don't seem to know much about stuff going on in your country.

They are not the same.
One is consumption (many mouths to feed like Nigeria) - so you need to produce and sell lots of stuff.
The other is saving & investment ( Saudi Arabia, Namibia, Norway).
Namibia is a small country but with very deep savings and pension system.
Kenya has fallen behind 10yrs on capital/saving/pensions- and has even been overtaken by Uganda.
This what Ruto gov is keen to fix.

Consumer goods versus Capital goods.

obaaderemi:
Fact is Nigeria is doing better than Kenya in that aspect. And what is retail and industrialization without a good financial market?

Sounds baboon grunting to me. Only a desperate investor would sell it back to Kenya gov. I dont remember saying 4G license is 300M - I said 50M is small money because licensing alone in Telcom in sector is a lot of money.

In the meantime basic financial accounting knowledge would do you a lot of good rather than usual baboon like grunting.

obaaderemi:
All this repetitive bullshit is unnecessary if you weren't lying from the beginning. Where did I say Helios bought telkom Kenya from Kenyan government? What is it with little Indians and lying?

I had to let you know what 4g license costs in your country. You didn't even know but was arguing blindly as usual. Now I'm asking you for a source to defend your claim that Helios paid your stupiid government$300m for a 4g license. I bet you can't. Just say you made a mistake. We're already used to your errors and lies.

Secondly all reports point to the fact that Helios sold those assets and your government got nothing. Until you can come up with evidence that your government actually got something from that deal. For your information, Telkom Kenya was making good money but no profit. There's a difference between revenue and profit. The revenue was going on salaries. The Nigerians retrenched several workers, stopped spending money on the useless company as far back as 2019, sold off its assets, then dumped it into Ruto's laps and still got $50m for their flight out of Nairobi.
Again, just like the RCC deal, Nigerians outsmarted you little Indians.

Their demand is stuck at 20m. Kenya has hit 10M. They should be doing 40m at least to be on same per capita consumption. Dangote has made cement almost 3 times the global average. Kenya cement is almost twice international average and has been falling or stuck because of intense competition. Ideally cement should be sold for dirty cheap - like 2-3 dollars per 50bag - not nearly 10 dollars like nigeria - or 5-6 like Kenya.

Case - The monthly average retail price for Portland cement in Egypt was 45.14 Egyptian pounds (2.87 U.S. dollars) per sack.

Wuoche:
Half or twice?

Dangoteland buys cement at 250 percent above global average because they must do insane import substitution.The result cement consumption stuck at 20 million metric tonnes which will be half Kenya demand at 10 million metric tonnes this year https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-raps-dominance-large-cement-firms-hampering-economy-2021-04-21/

Mpesa - moves almost 300B dollars in a year - almost 3 times kenya GDP.
It grew whopping 34% in a year - and Safaricom made a billion dollars from it.
Payment merchants now nearly 0.5M.
Fuliza - mobile overdraft facility - reached 5 billion dollars
Diaspora Remittance - nearly 4 billion dollars -36.6 percent increase

In the 2022 Sustainability Report, Safaricom has revealed that a total of Sh29.55 trillion was transacted on M-Pesa in its financial year to March 2022, as customers and revenues grew.
https://nation.africa/kenya/business/m-pesa-moved-eight-times-the-value-of-the-country-s-budget-in-2022-report-shows-3991504

A 34 per cent growth in the value transacted through the platform compared to the Sh22 trillion Kenyans transacted on M-Pesa during the previous year, revenues from the platform also shot up by 30.4 per cent to see Safaricom earn Sh107.7 billion from the product created 15 years ago.

For a hilly country I wonder why they cant go big on build hydro-dams. Besides Kenya I think is Rwanda biggest investor and trading partner. Kagame opening up for business has really helped. Equity are building a huge skycrapper now there. Rwanda seem like good testing ground before you enter DRC and french speaking countries.

kikuyu1:
Thanks! The much vaunted Kagameland pays 23 cents US per unit of power? Who'd have thought!?

According to USDA - there has almost be no change in official imports - about 2 million metric tonnes - with production at 5million. Maybe what is off the market is the smuggled rice?
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/CircularDownloader.ashx?year=2022&month=02&commodity=Grain

Shaytun:
Thai Rice Exporters Association in their reports indicated that Nigeria’a RICE IMPORTS from Thailand FELL by 98.4% to 15metric tonnes between Jan - July,2022 as against 957 metric tonnes imported in 2021.

The corruption perception index - look kenya has improved - but police corruption is still drag it own. Nigeria also improves.

Ghana is gone - it now approaching 14 cedis to a dollar - there was small lull over the weekend - but hyperinflation bells are ringing.

They started last month on 24th sept at 10 - now it 14 cedis to a dollar - that sounds very close to hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation occurs when the prices of goods and services rise more than 50% per month. At that rate, a loaf of bread could cost one amount in the morning and a higher one in the afternoon. Hyperinflation is very rare

kikuyu1:
The difference between us and Waffas! The ksh has lost 7% in the same time their currency has had a 100% fall - while we're all concerned these mofos are in denial!

Financial markets. There is big difference with your flea market. The chart has nothing to do with retail or wholesale market or industrial good market. It FINANCIAL market - pension, bonds, insurance, etc.

obaaderemi:
Check the charts again.

Look like the strawman arguments.
Helios never bought anything from kenya gov.
They bought from Orange.
They gave kenya gov 10% free shareholding and have sold it for 50m dollars.
In telcommunication - 50m dollars is paper change - it's not money.
Telcom need many license - 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G - and each cost serious money.

Again if Helios made money from selling Base Station to American Towers - GoK made 40% of it.

Nobody has made money from Telkom Kenya for the last 30yrs. It has been bankrupt for donkey years.

It owes KRA lots of taxes, it pensioners lots of money, and name it.

Telkom history start far - when there was no mobile telcom - and they had thousands of stuff - under what was called KPTC.

I interned there for one afternoon - in a huge printing house - I didnt return the following day as I was required to formally apply .

KPTC - was split to Posta and Telkom Kenya. The mobile arm became Safaricom. Safaricom was owned and started by Telkom - but Kenya Treasury made it the golden goose that lay golden eggs.

Telkom kenya was left for morons like Helios and Orange. Safaricom remain the dominant player that is impossible to dislodge in kenya market. Kenya gov owned 60 percent of it; Vodafone 35%; Moi & crooks got 5%; now after IPO it's 35% for Gok; Vodafone/vodacom 40%; other investors 25%.

And Telkom is back 100% after stupid french and nigerian-helios kept it a float for 15yrs - crazy stuff. Now they just need to buy off Airtel.

obaaderemi:
It's interesting to see providing a simple link to back up your claim is very hard or let me say impossible for you to do. Why? Because it's not available. Number two: you claimed 4G license cost $300m in Kenya, I told you it's just $24m and you can even pay that in 10years. And you are here accusing someone of poor education. You are a joke. A functional illiterate. Are we going to continue schooling little Indians for free here?
This is from a Kenyan source:


https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/government-helios-scale-down-investment-in-telkom-kenya-1413096

Helios raped them silly in little India.