₦airaland Forum

GDP in it's simplest form is production and prices.
It's upon Nigeria gov to collect or estimate production of say rice.
And their prices.
Now tell me how would you go about estimating total rice production in Nigeria?
Maybe ask each state for their rice production?
Maybe ask the rice millers for how much rice paddies they received from farms
Maybe you get satellite imagery of the farms and estimate their yields?
Maybe do random survey of farms and market places?
Maybe just do wild guess like Nigeira

Cooking GDP is not a new thing - USSR/China/ communist states use to do this - while it was obvious the rosy figures were not reflecting on the ground - as people were dying from hunger.

dreamxhaser:
How can they offer technical assistance without doing a research of what's on ground themselves?

If you claim to produce 10 million tonnes of Yam selling at 1000 naira - how will IMF or WB dispute that?

dreamxhaser:
Yes but easy maths are easy to debunk when the solution used to derive an answer isn't right because it is an easy problem after all.

So do you think World Bank and other legit bodies haven't done their homework on a very easy maths like GDP?

Do you know better than than the hundreds of economics and math professionals working there?

IMF/WB just offer technical assistance - but doesn't supervise what you collect or how you collect. WB for example funded me to go to Rwanda and help them design their household economic survey forms - my colleague was in west africa helping wb roll out microdata - wb tool - otherwise it your own National Stats Office in Abuja that decide how estimate your own economy. I believe their estimation is overcooked.

dreamxhaser:
You have (if true), but you no longer as more competent people than you do

GDP is easiest of maths out there. Done by anyone who can count and multiply. It simply getting production figures of all economic activities times the prevailing market price. VERY EASY

dreamxhaser:
Sorry I ain't trying anything with you.

You know why? Well, it's because you don't know better than the Phd holders from around the world working at IMF and World Bank.

But I can change my mind on the condition that you disapprove any world statistics in favour of your country both economic and infrastructure wise.

I have worked for World Bank.

dreamxhaser:
No little Indian

IMF and the world bank will surely do their homework to debunk countries running on fake states.

So do you know better than those Organisations that approved Nigerian GDP to be legit?

Yes or No

IMF or WB doesnt have anything to do with GDP calculation. That is unilateral activity by Nigeria Stats Office. If you were to become broke like Ghana - then they will come and probably ask you to redo it. But look like nobody is willing to lend to Nigeria - so it very unluckly Nigeria will come to IMF class of hard knocks soon

dreamxhaser:
Rigged GDP huh?

A GDP known bodies like IMF and world bank approves?

Now, let me ask you, do you know better than big bodies like World Bank and IMF?

Yes or No?

Taxes are short but the insults are long.
Nigeria is not unique - it should trend at least with other poor African countries like Burundi or Somali or South Sudan.
At least do 10 percent tax to gdp.
But six percent...it huge outlier.
Meaning GDP is over-estimated.

dreamxhaser:
Stop saying nonsense; major bodies know that Nigerian GDP is undervalued you fool.

Regarding the banking sector you are trying to hide behind, only about 40% of Nigerians use banks. Must of my tribesmen in the north don't. In fact I know of a whole LGA that doesn't have a bank.

Now imagine If at least 70% of our population should be active in banking

It's not a desire to trade.
It's a desire to live or perish.
This true in almost every africa or poor country.
People have to EKE A LIVING.
Informal sector is huge -but it get measured - to large extent -
Maybe the food you grow and consume in your farm is hard to measure but pretty much everything else you have to buy with money.

GeneralDae:
But our informal sector is bigger than most African countries because of our population and desire to trade, and even those who are working formally with good pay may do trading by the side. So it's like comparing apples with oranges.

I have done my homework for years. Your agriculture data is guesswork from Abuja's Stats office.

GeneralDae:
Go do your homework bro, in Agriculture, no African country comes close to Nigeria.
We are now even the largest producers of rice in Africa and 14th in the world. The question of Benin republic smuggling rice into Nigeria is now totally becoming a thing of the past and all we are working on now is reducing the price of rice. These are the top 4 nations in Africa in terms of Agricultural sectors:

Nigeria
Egypt
Ethiopia
South Africa

In FDI we are also top there behind Egypt and in PPP (not GDP nominal) we are second behind Egypt as well. So I believe the Data is accurate or slightly under reported.

GeneralDae:
Nigeria's GDP is actually underreported because 50% of people employed are in the informal sector (services) which are the small scale medium enterprises. This is why tax to GDP ratio is low and Government is working on that and even the world bank acknowledges that. This is why you'll see people doing a formal job that pays say 50,000 naira monthly but they live in a house where they pay 500,000 naira yearly or their monthly expenses are way more than 50,000 naira because they run other informal sectors that are not taxed.

For example, 7 years ago when I was teaching in a High school that pays 15000 naira to 20,000 naira monthly, I knew none of us who fully depended on our salaries (which wasn't even taxed). Almost everyone had fish ponds, or was in snail business, poultry business, or stuff like that which they did by the side. The ones who where not involved in such big businesses either had shops in their homes or did extra home lessons, so none of us then lived a life of 15000 naira monthly.

It is estimated that there are about 40 million small scale medium enterprises which Government should make formal and if you bring in our big Telecommunications market where over a 100 million people use a cell phone, we are more than what you have there or just about accurate. Kenya doesn't even come close.

Common story in every developing country where people have to eke a living.. hustling informally is captured in formal or pseudo data. Nigeria economy is not just over estimated..it's grossly overstimated starting with agriculture

Tax to GDP - the overcooked Nigeria GDP stick out like a sore thumb

World Top Lenders by Brand Value
https://brandfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Picture3-1.jpg

Among the 20 African banks from five countries on the list, Equity and KCB were ranked ninth and 11th respectively.

South Africa dominates with seven lenders —including the top six— led by Standard Bank which has a brand value of $1.583 billion (Sh179.8 billion).

Nigeria has five lenders on the list, but each ranks lower than Equity and only one is ahead of KCB. Egypt and Morocco each have three lenders on the list.

Globally, Chinese and US lenders dominate the brand ranking, with the Asian economy producing the top four led by ICBC with a brand value of $75.1 billion (Sh8.53 trillion). The US accounts for the next five lenders, with Bank of America its top entry at $36.7 billion (Sh4.2 trillion) in brand value.

When you factor per capita (simple fact that Kenya is at 50m -nigeria 200m) - you're nowhere. Let start from banking - Kenya total banking assets is now close to 55B - Nigeria 110B. If your GDP was not fake - you wont have 20 percent total bank assets to gdp - while Kenya is close to 50 percent.

Name anything - Nigeria at best is twice as big - despite population being four times bigger and country being twice as large- so in reality you're half as rich as kenya or Kenya is twice more developed.

GeneralDae:
Are you really asking this? Banking, ICT, Agriculture, Services, Military, Education, manufacturing, Entertainment industry, almost everything man.

Do you honestly see any Nigeria city getting near here in your lifetime I dont

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3NIgWNh1Vs


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP_-IuyK9SE

obaaderemi:
Is this why 8 million Nairobi residents live in slums?

He cant understand because he come from Ibandan - which is just a glorified slum. Slums in west africa are integrated - rich man neighbours is a poor guy - so works for them. So they don't understand how slums works in countries that strictly enforce building codes and zoning. In kenya or South Africa - slums provide cheap labor for the rich, the industrial area and the business districts. Daily commute is big issue for them than living in a shack. They leave their rural homes for tiny shacks so they can find a job near their place of residence.

NTSA:
Slums tend to organically develop near industrial areas or near high income areas for a reason...that's the point you can't understand.

Just40:
on whose land ?

Kenya land is owned by individuals..not kings and their surrogates like west Africa.Such weak land rights is responsible for your under investment.

Kenya a title deed makes you the absolute and conclusive owner of land.

Kenya has about 12 million households - gov has issued now over 11 million title deeds. This current gov did very well issuing 5 million title deeds.

" 5.1 million Title Deeds issued to Kenyans under the National Government’s National Titling Programme(Jubilee Gov't), compared to 6 million Title Deeds that had been issued within 50 years since Kenya’s independence to 2013."

Best example of a brain drain...brain surgeon from ghana treating brain tumours of Americans...meanwhile Ghanians are dying hopelessly.

Just40:
Dr. Nduom a Ghanaian Neurosurgical Oncologist, scientist, and patient advocate. Who cut out brain and spine tumors and try to cure them with the immune system (gene therapy and gene editing) has been tapped the Joe Biden to lead the Moonshot project to reduce cancer death ..

Top notch practitioner

We are doing that. Now tell me when are you demolishing your entire city that looks like a slum and building a proper city starting with a modern sewage system? You cannot call slumization - urbanization. You have created a huge mess that will be impossible to solve except by demolishing it.

Just40:
No one should be a degrading slum dweller .... Create more opportunities for your people so they can rise above slum living and your urbanization rate will increase when you invest in their communities

Housing is small part of living in urban area. Transport to and from work is even more important. All kenya slums sit near industrial area or business district or rich estates. They work as factory workers, watchmen, maids, drivers and such jobs that earn you minimum salary - in kenya that is 110USD month. Most people in Nairobi even those living in slums have bought plots. But It not practical to live 50kms away from city - commute daily.

This is why Ghana is going NOWHERE without apartments and skyscrappers.

It's like the slum dog from south africa - white dude made sure they live 30kms from Joburg - now how do you commute daily from Soweto to Joburg

Just40:
people live in slums because they can't afford anything else ....

I don't have time for your long nonsense writing

You're ignorant.
People live in slums because they do not want to commute for long time from their workplaces.
If you live 30kms away - it going to cost at least 2 dollars per day - for transport - that is already 60 dollars a month for one person
If you're 4 people in that houses - that is 240 dollars a month.
It's why for poor people they prefer living close to business districts or mostly industrial area or upper class residence.
Majority walk to and from work - they cannot afford to use bus - with daily earning of 5 dollars.

As for plots - and people building their house - GHANA GOT NOTHING.

Nairobi metro is former white owned ranches running into thousands of acres.

Endless expanse of land - that have been cut and sold into plots.

Almost everyone in Nairobi - eventually buys a plot.

Two things you will see in Kenya - MPESA sign for mobile money - and a PLOT FOR SALE advert.

There is a plot for any price - depending on the distance - some for as low as 500 dollars - if they are 50-60kms from Nairobi

Like these ones..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEypdlGI4qU

Just40:
again you've not gotten it ..

You don't have to be dense all the time..... 8 million Nairobians live in slums... If they were getting out of slums as you claim, more people will make it to the other side.

Kenyans can't even afford lands to buy yet you are here claiming land buying

I know you think because you build a few houses - you think Nairobeans dont live in suburbs;
My friend the whole Nairobi metro is endless suburbs.
They are called Nairobi bedroom - about half of people working in Nairobi - live in those satellites towns and estates.

And the land in Nairobi metro are expansive former ranches - running into thousands of endless acres.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAmmYpbgHt8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05XQbH7wcqI

Just40:
yes it is true ... Hence why 8 million Nairobians live in slums while only 2 million can afford suburban lifestyle, mostly made up by expatriate.

Just 40 madness - Kenya buys gazillion of plots in Nairobi Metro - everywhere you will see plots for sale

This example - Kiambu county - kamakiz -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05XQbH7wcqI

By west africa standard - yes - I know you're looking for expansive slumpolis - full of rusted iron sheet roofed hovels.

dreamxhaser:
Those things are not qualified to be called cities

Adi me why and I'll explain

You're angry but facts are stubborn.
Very stubborn..especially those backed by videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MjIXdsHhxM

dreamxhaser:
Ok Kenya is NOT a one city country.

DICK

Not true. Even people who live in slums eventually move to Nairobi metro suburbs. Out of nearly 8M people in Nairobi metro - half of them live in the metro - half live in Nairobi City. It's very difficult to move from eastland to westland - the houses are just too expensive - but people move to Ngong, Kitengela, Sykoima, Athi River, Kamulu, Ruiru, Kiambu, Kikuyu, Ongata Rongai, Kiserian, Juja and such area - and buy land - and build their houses.

There are just gazillions of plots for sales....very cheap.

In fact kenyans ar obssesed with buying plots - I would describe as one leading business in kenya

Just40:
so you've been living in another slum ..... Most Kenyans have remained in messy Eastland all their live and will never taste suburban lifestyle

Take a few minutes and watch those videos. Then repeat after me. Kenya IS NOT a ONe CITY country.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eh1VohvwRg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MjIXdsHhxM

dreamxhaser:
I can only remember kenyas advertising Nairobi and Monbasa here


Mombasa also looks good tho

I dont think you have been paying attention coz Kenya has Mombasa, Kisumu, Eldoret and Nakuru as cities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MjIXdsHhxM

Technical Eldoret is not a city but soon will be - plus others

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eh1VohvwRg

dreamxhaser:
I have been following this thread since 2018, before the other was closed.

Anyways you just have to accept that Nigeria is not a one or two cities country. Unlike Kenya

I can list 10 different Nigerian cities for you, while in Kenya it's only Nairobi.
You grab?

I lived there 20yrs ago - got a wife there. It decent place to start life in Nairobi and work your way to the west side of Nairobi. Most kenyans generally start from eastland - where rent is affordable - then either move to Nairobi metro suburbs - or if lucky to Nairobi west part - proper middle and upper class.

Buruburu shopping center is as big as what you showed.

Just40:
good luck convincing your buruburu mates that they live in an estate.... Most of them consider it a poor slum and relic of the past

Not in Kenya.
In Kenya public participation is KEY
Our is democracy - Not North Korea.
Gov has to involve us in such decisions.
Public participation is key constitutional requirement in anything our gov does.

AfriqueDuZuid:
Government gives direction on developments and how the country should look in future.

That's then developers gravitated towards that

That is like shopping center of an estate like Buruburu

Just40:
too tiny to match this area...

Home to GCB 3rd HQ, Barclays HQ, SC, and Shopping centers

Smart, green, eco, tech is NOT MUTUALLY exclusive with Skyscrappers.
Skyscrappers being built are now green, eco, smart and name it.
Skyscrappers are built because it's best use of space.
Without apartments and skyscrappers - the city would sprawl into suburbs - and that present commute challenges.
It also take away farm land, wetlands, forests and etc.
Kenya has not even started on it.
We still have 70 percent of our population that need to urbanize.
That requires like 10 Nairobis in the near future.

As for South Africa - we know what problem is - like the US - it's white folks running away from inner cities - to suburbs.
Inner cities become drug and criminal havens.
This is not happening in Asia or Europe.

That kind of racial seggreation of urban settlement problem exist only in USA and South Africa.

AfriqueDuZuid:
Skyscrapers are a 20th century things.

21st century is about about smart, green, Eco, tech cities of which don't include skyscrapers. Skyscraper battle in late. If you chasing 20th century SA skyscrapers you are in the wrong race

We building 21st century things

Talk is cheap.

Mombasa road business district is bigger than anything in Ghana.

It's HQ of Airtel Kenya, my bank DTB, big media house Standard group amongst others.

Just40:
dreams

My entire business district is 10 times larger than your 2km business district