₦airaland Forum

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how market

ES) Spain Econ Min De Guindos: Confirms Spain will request EU aid for its bank recap plan; Formal aid request will be made June 21. Euro Zone leaders agreed to loan Spain up to €100B euros to support bank recapitalization at a rumored rate of 3.0%.

* EU will support Spain’s reform programs to help re-establish confidence in the euro.
* Spain is requesting support for its financial sector, not a government bailout.
* Spain will ask for enough EU aid (€125B) to ensure its banks can be recapitalized and to provide an additional margin of security. EU will announce the size of the loan package.
* EU aid will be provided to Spain’s FROB which will use the funds to support the banks. FROB debt is considered state debt.
* Loans will be provided by the EFSF or ESM, will give more clarity on this in the days to come. The loans will be on “very favorable” terms (3~4%), better than current debt market conditions provide.
* There are no economic or fiscal reform conditions placed on this aid package. Spanish sovereign risk to be separated from bank sector restructuring. Loan conditions will be imposed on the banks, not on Spanish society.
* Expect bank loan package will lower the pressure on Spanish debt market, allowing FROB to finance itself at much more favorable rates than seen recently.
* EU aid plan for banks will NOT impact Spanish government debt issuance.

(EU) Follow Up: Europe ministers comment on Spain’s agreement to request aid for banks:

* EU’s Juncker: Financial assistance to be provided by the EFSF/ESM; Spain will NOT be asked to implement austerity programs unlike Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
* German Fin Min Schaeuble: Spain has taken significant steps on financial reform and containing economic problems. Welcomes Spain announcing its intention to accept aid package with appropriate conditions. EFSF is ready to provide aid, though would prefer to use the ESM. It is proper for Spain to wait for the audit reports before setting size of final aid request.
* Irish Fin Min Noonan: Spain will get funds at the same interest rate as other program countries (Ireland, Portugal, Greece); Spanish deal does not mean there will be a better deal given to Ireland.
* European Commissions Barroso and Rehn: European Commission is ready to move ahead quickly with Spanish loan package. Will propose appropriate conditionality on Spanish banks getting loans.
* IMF’s Lagarde: the Fund stands ready to support the latest euro zone efforts. Backstopping Spanish banks is a welcome step. Calls for more ECB easing as global risks rise. Very existence of the European Project is at stake

How to interpret these headlines?

Spain Bank Aid – Not The Same As A Spanish Bailout

Market is obviously optimistic over Spanish Bailout request as I have said time and again that uncertainty is often times worse than bad news. With Spain asking €125B in Bailout for its banking sectors, which is 3 times than the conservative IMF estimate (€40B), market is feeling a rare sense of confidence that it will be enough to recapitalize Spanish banking sectors with enough buffers… Although earlier reports out of JP Morgan puts the bailout estimate at €350B, while RBS estimated €450B, considering a Spanish bailout, not just banking sector aid.

I believe we’ll probably see consolidation of sorts from the risk appetite buying today, but the overall fundamental for the Euro has defintiely improved, at least for the time being, with no more uncertainty out of Spain… I believe we could see more EUR strength in the short-term, although the market focus will soon turn to the upcoming Greek election for direction… All in all, if we don’t get any more surprises from Spain and “Grexit“, EURUSD is likely to remain range-bound and perhaps slightly higher until the next FOMC Meeting…

And to answer the question, is Spanish Banking Aid same as a Spanish Bailout, the answer is “Yes”… News agencies are already calling Spain as the fourth EU member to request a bailout… so go figure icon smile Spain Bank Aid Not The Same As A Spanish Bailout?

how market

am still holding on sell position till the end of the week

WINNINGWAYZ: well, very pipful day. am locked on profit now sha. just rsi on 4hr.
@silibaba, I sent you my system to review, its all there... understanding simple pivot trading movement.
theyjih... there is a thin line separating ur perceived caustic comments with satirical undertone and supposedly having "fun" Did same when I last posted june 1st, I had stay back for like a week, so wont get pissed. Keep ur caustic content to ur self. This is serious business and people's money are at stake.

Anyway, I have mastered some price action systems. will share with the house later.

Plz, do not dictate for the market. divergence on 4hr using rsi is very simple, stupid and very powerful

my bros, yeah is alll there.but i need ebook to widen my scope of knowledge on pivot trading.

anyway, am still test running thanks


@unclenna am still awaiting the stuff. thanks in advance

FXKing2012: Sell EU, AU, EG, EC, ER and EJ; buy GC, UCad and UChf.

up bear

bearish galore

Viewing this topic: swiftz(f), Prettywoman, okemmadu, Fxmarket, unclenna(m), goldenboi(m), nolly042(m), Rich4god(m), goldng, naijababe(f) and 3 guest(s)

boys are not happy. everybody eyes dey chuck

anyway opportunity comes only to those that exercise patient

unclenna: The market is moving towards the daily pivot which is around 1.25079 according to pivot rule. I guess you are from BOM

unclenna pls if u have any ebook strictly on trading the pivot pls help with it.

my email is siliconrule at yahoo dot com

thanks in advance

@tonjoan, happy birthday, LLNP

are we preparing to go long?

;Dhow market

o boy see gap on eu,

so inhuman

naijababe: Mtchew!!! Honestly, all these fools running around the place sha. At this rate, some folks will come here and tell us they taught Steve Nison everything he knew

leopower: thks to every trader who acts on my behave.
@ swift, i am not a bad person as well even blog icon can confirm that, as u said u relate well with on phone so as me on chat & msgs but i dont place call for him.
@ aguiyi, i am not trying to paint blog icon bad but i wrote that out of annoyance, i am not the rude type when communicating with people, but i just get upset for keeping me in the dark.
@ blog icon, you have done well by coming here to clear yourself, i was only angry for not being updated, as you can testify i am not the troublesome type with the time we have spent together. as for the refund you know i dont need it cos even outside this paid class, you know i can do things for you as i have i done in the past. i pray the good GOD help you over the present predicament you found yourself in by his special grace.
To all traders in the house, i am very very sorry for the way i address my dear brother blog icon.
thk you all for your understanding.

your sins are forgiven. go home and sin no more

unclenna: Please where is Odiaero my man and Tonjoan too.

even ogborah

yusuf01: Salam Aleikum
Inna lilahi wa inna ileihi rajioon; From Thee we come from and to Thee our eventual return.

May Allah grant the families of these muslims patience in this trying time. Nobody planned to lose a loved one, but like Allah said in the glorious Qur'an; all souls shall taste death.

But such times as this comes some innovative (bi'diah) ways of morning our dead, and this is mostly among unlearned muslims. Islam - as perfect as it is - has recommended guided ways to mourn our dead; we are allowed to pray for them. The prophet (SAW) said the best thing we can ever give our dead is our prayer, because they need it a lot. As muslims, we should stop attaching superstitious beliefs to what has just happened - it is unislamic. People have been saying all sorts, and its unfortunate that some muslims are also passing such informations across (especially via BB broadcast). Remember when an eclipse occurred when the prophet's son died (I can't remember the name now; maybe Ibrahim or Qasim), people said it was as a result of the death of the prophet's son. He came out to tell them that eclipses are one of the signs of Allah and not as a result of someone's death.

As muslims, we are a guided ummah, let's not follow the steps of the unguided ones. An example of what I've been seeing on my BBM; muslims displaying black images (and candles) as their DPs, these actions are not in line with what the prophet (SAW) taught us. He's our mentor, he's meant to guide us. Like Aisha (RA) said, he's Qu'ran in motion.

Once again, may Allah reward those that died in the plane crash the best of their good deeds, and may he forgive them of their shortcomings.

Salam Aleikum.

as you are mourning, pls don't forget to mourn those christians BOKO HARAM killed since 2011 till date

(US) Renewed risk appetite helped to weaken the USD and JPY currencies against the European currencies.

(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.3% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 4.3% V 3.3%E (multi-year high).

(AU) Australia Treasurer Swan reiterated that the budget surplus gives the RBA plenty of scope and he still expects strong investment into the country.

(CN) China Securities Journal in a front page piece said the PBoC should cut rates in order to boost confidence and prevent overly large swings in domestic economic growth.

(UK) Morgan Stanley sees BOE increasing its Asset Purchase Target by £50B to £375B in tomorrow meeting

(UK) Deutsche Bank and Citi also expect the BoE to expand its Quantitative Easing at Thursday’s meeting. Some believe that the release of services PMI out of the UK (due Thursday before the BoE meeting) could be a factor which determines whether or not the BoE eases further.

Global Quantitative Easing Brings Hope

(US) Fed’s Williams (FOMC voter): Must maintain stimulatory monetary policy stance (Quantitative Easing), Fed must be ready to do more if needed.

How to interpret these headlines?

Today’s market is looking remarkably more optimistic starting with AU Q1 GDP Report which showed that Australian economy grew more than twice market concensus, followed by a string of reports on potential easing from China, U.S., and UK. The threat of joint JPY Intervention from yesterday’s Japanese Fin Min comments after the G7 conference call also added selling pressure on the JPY. Both USD and JPY traded weaker against other majors, although the long-term picture is still uncertain in my opinion.

I recommend everyone to watch next week’s FOMC Decision and the upcoming Greek election on the 17th of June… I believe these two events are going to determine market’s risk sentiment for the month… In the meantime, I will not be too haste to buy the EUR or AUD as the uncertainty in Europe and the potential of a sharp slowdown in China still pose threats.

eu is showing me pepper but thanks to dax and au

how market?

sorry man. may their souls rest in the blossom of the most high

Fxmarket: They have

thank God .

just have to move on

Fxmarket: Plz bone any Typo

Hello people, you may have noticed that am offline for days, and it may continue till i finialize my battle with a very important transfer with the bank that hanged my money, so am trying to use another bank to do same transfer after i have seen and sorted out the MD

This is the reason Fxpro can be trusted and i recommend i to anyone,

I lost money due to their network failure for like 5 minutes, the account is in pounds, a very huge money, so i contacted them and complain about it, they replied and say they will investigate after exchanging few emails, but i can tell you that after 5 days, they called me few minutes ago by a payphone number i gave them and told me that look, that i should not be angry, that they will refund like 40%to my account, but i refused on phone, i said i want 50% of the lost money, so both of us agreed, and i felt like kissing the woman over the phone, i will continue to use fxpro as my first choice broker, even though i use other big brokers, i just love them because of this and will recomend it to anyone, ur boy odiaero

I wont be trading till i solve my bank problem, and another i did not come back with my laptop, trading over My phone is just not it, no customized stuff on it like my lappi, am in PH

sorry about this bros, pray they do as promised .

that is why i love fxpro

DONT RUN AWAY FROM MONEY STILL SELLING

DON'T DULL OOOO. BEING RIDING FROM THE TOP TILL IT GETS TO 0.96XXXX

(CN) CHINA MAY HSBC FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.4 V 49.3 APRIL FINAL (V 48.7 MAY FLASH)

(CN) CHINA MAY PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.4 V 52.0E (5-month low; 1st m/m fall in 6 months)

(FR) France May Final PMI Manufacturing: 44.7 v 44.4e (three-year low)

(DE) Germany May Final PMI Manufacturing: 45.2 v 45.0e

(EU) Euro Zone May Final PMI Manufacturing: 45.1 v

(UK) May PMI Manufacturing: 45.9 v 49.7e

(EU) Euro Zone Apr Unemployment Rate: 11.0% v 11.0%e (fresh EMU record high)

(US) MAY ISM MANUFACTURING: 53.5 V 53.8E; PRICES PAID: 47.5 V 57.0E (lowest prices paid since Dec 2011)

How to interpret these headlines?

We are obviously seeing contraction in the manufacturing sector globally, with new lows being reported out of China and set the tone for the month. France, UK, and Germany are all showing record low readings, while the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is slightly positive but missed consensus expectation by 0.3.

This is likely to add pressure on the commodities market, which means that Crude Oil, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, etc…), Copper, etc… are all going to be under tremendous selling pressures as manufacturing slowdown affects demands – (note: earlier report out of China shows that some orders for hard commodities were deferred or cancelled all together due to the slowdown).

Outlook for global recovery remains bearish. Outlook for commodity currencies, especially AUD, remains bearish as well.

(EU) ECB rejects Spanish Bailout plan to indirectly tap into its cash in order to recapitalize Bankia; Told govt officials that a proper capital injection is needed. Spain plan said to be potentially in breach of EU rules. Govt officials said to have argued that Spain has implemented reforms requested by Brussels and wants to avoid bailouts similar to those of Portugal, Greece and Ireland. In turn, Brussels is said to have been frustrated by PM Rajoy’s handling of the crisis ever since he attempted to unilaterally revise deficit targets last month.

(EU) Separate US financial press report indicating Spain’s own bailout fund has only about €9B remaining. While it can be replenished through debt issuance, recent auctions have seen weak demand and sharply higher borrowing costs.

(EU) Follow Up 5:30 ET ECB: Have not been consulted on Spain recapitalization plans but is prepared to give advice on the development of such plans – Statement

(EU) European Commission may request that EU Fin Ministers allow Spain an extra year to achieve 3% deficit to GDP target, moving deadline from 2013 to 2014.

How to interpret this?

We saw sharp sell-offs of EURUSD immediately following ECB’s rejection, it seems that the market rather take a Spanish Bailout as a positive signal than a rejection of a Spanish Bailout Plan… Which once again brings us back to the basis of market analysis, that uncertainty is always worse than news, no matter how bad the news is.

I would expect to see EURUSD retest the 2011 lows of around the 1.2000 level, giving the fact that Greek election is coming up in a couple of weeks and Spain is under tremendous scrutiny, not mentioning the implication of requesting extention to the Deficit to GDP target… The key is to keep selling EUR whenever it makes significant recoveries.

BEARISH TREND RESUMES

(CN) China state run Xinhua disputed yesterday’s report that China was ready to launch stimulus measures in order to pursue the path of stronger growth. Xinhua went on to say that pumping in government money to reach GDP targets is”not sustainable” and China will focus on encouraging private investments in railways, infrastructure, energy, telecommunications, health care and education. The article did not address any possibility of rate cut or RRR cut.

(AU) AUSTRALIA APR RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.2% V +0.2%E (11-month low)

How to interpret this?

We saw some limited optimism yesterday following Credit Suisse’s report on how China State have passed a large-scale stimulus injection to boost its growth, and AUDUSD went on a bullish run testing the 0.9900 level… However, with today’s report out of China Press and the fact that the economic outlook in Australia is still looking shaky, I believe that AUD Bearish Trend is about to resume, with a potential target down to the 0.9600 level in the short-term… Considering the risk adverse environments and continuous safe-haven flows, I believe both AUDUSD and AUDJPY are prime for sell on rallies…

the long awaited sell is here