₦airaland Forum

rebekah2011:
My Oga, your name dey show ooooo

jamace:
Any member here who has bought MTNN shares should let us know pls. Monitoring things to report to appropriate quarters.

Godlylifeoneart:
MTN Nigeria’s Listing by Introduction: What the True Picture is... By afriinvest



On the 16th May 2019, we saw the long-awaited listing of MTN Nigeria Plc (“the Company” or “MTNN”) on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Although the market had expected an Initial Public Offering (IPO), the Company opted for a listing by introduction. This means that the company is not looking to issue new shares nor seeking to relinquish some of the existing shares of its majority shareholder (MTN International Limited) to raise equity capital in the immediate term, but existing shareholders are now provided with the opportunity to sell to the public. MTNN listed 20.4 billion shares at N90.0 per share, which translates to a market capitalisation of N1.8tn and implied price to earnings multiple of 9.5x using annualised Q1:2019 earnings, relative to the pricing multiples in Ghana (10.0x), Mauritius (30.3x), and South Africa (30.0x). This makes MTNN the second largest company listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) after Dangote Cement, accounting for 17.3% of total market capitalisation on the day of listing and 18.9% after three trading days.

Issues with the Listing
The illiquidity of MTNN shares on the exchange is a major concern as retail investors have not had the opportunity to make purchases. We believe this is partly connected to the cheap valuation of the company at the point of listing. Using annualised Q1:2019 EBITDA, the company’s EV/EBITDA at listing was 3.4x compared with 4.9x and 5.4x for African and emerging market peers. Hence, demand has considerably outpaced supply, as existing shareholders are unwilling to sell at the listing price. This is further buttressed by off-market trades of about 25.0 million shares at N125.00 per share, which was at a 38.9% premium to the listing price of N90.0 per share. Using the EV/EBITDA multiple for comparable countries would suggest significant room for price appreciation, showing that liquidity would remain tight in the immediate term. Our valuation of MTNN is currently being finalised with the report due for publication later this week.

MTNN’s Listing Price
In our discussion with management, we discovered that the N90.0 listing price was arrived at using the average trading price of linked units at the OTC market over 180 days. We also obtained information that MTNN’s shareholder loan of US$402m was converted to cumulative preference shares linked to ordinary shares in 2008. However, prior to the listing on NSE, the shares were delinked, and the ordinary shares were subdivided into 50 shares at 2 kobo per share from N1.0 per share. There are plans to redeem the preference shares worth N144.7bn (US$402.0m).

Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (V.A.C.U) Regulatory Environment
Since 2015, MTNN’s relationship with its primary regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission, has been fractious. The company was fined N1.0tn (US$5.2bn) in 2015 for not disconnecting unregistered sim cards. This was later reduced to N333.0bn spread over four years, with the condition to list its shares publicly by 2019. The final tranche of N55.0bn is due this May according to Management and the listing of shares has been concluded.
In 2018, two incidents heightened risk in the regulatory environment which also stalled the scheduled-to-be-completed IPO. There was a CBN’s case relating to incomplete Certificate of Capital Importation (CCI) obtained for the repatriation of dividends; this was later settled before the end of 2018. The elephant in the room is now the case with the Attorney General’s office, which has fined the company US$2.0bn in relation to taxes on the importation of equipment and payments to suppliers. In our discussion with management, we got the feeling that the uncertainty attached to the fine is part of the reason for MTNN’s cheap valuation at listing and why the IPO is on hold. If the fine should crystallise, it would significantly affect earnings and in turn the valuation of the firm. Management also informed us that the MTN Group intends to sell down its stake to 65.0% from the current 80.0%, which should result in improved liquidity.

rebekah2011:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/26213_MTN_NIGERIA_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2019.pdf

Mpeace:
No need to queue up for this mtn. At a certain price, it would become available. I doubt if any one here would get it below 150.
Just my thoughts.

owoblow77:
My orders just show amber colour. Does it mean my orders are fulfilled? I requested to buy at market price.

owoblow77:
Anyone don see MTN buy?
I don re-login 2ce, mbà, nothing is happening. I don liquidate half of my portfolio for MTN.

Agbalowomeri:
I don't know anything about this MTN but the fact that they pay out 80% of their PAT as dividend, the NSE I know will price it very high o

yom2:
20billion share will not be available? I hear u. the can only hoard it for a few days

onegentleguy:
On the bolded, now u are talking !!
There is always a difference btw been a acquirer of an asset to been an seller. But that's not up for discourse now.
Hope u read the part of my post in bold. Thats just the point.
But as u rightly said, u are free to assess things ur way.

Regards.

Yayira:
You get mind

robobo:
.

From the little i know of Dangflour vis a vis the bid i think the deal breaker / maker wld be the access to the port / sea that Olam wanted along with the company.

why above might be a dealbreaker is as follow

Does Alhaji currently have any other port / sea Access apart from that of DangFlour? i think yes cos i know Cement also have a terminal

would Alhaji want a premium for the port sea Access considering that Olam does not presently have same and wld kill to have it (due to there overall business and not only flour). i think so, so the final question is how badly does Olam want it? Remember that Alhaji is a Shark and he already knows how badly Olam want that port access.

you can conclude the rest on your own

onegentleguy:
Are u kidding me?
U are truly been funny with ur assessment of things.

U really think Alhaji D(the suppossed owner of the company, DF) hasn't given the green light to the deal and the company released an official statement(duly signed by the company sec and CFO) to confirm the deal? ...and Olam going ahead to do same?
My dear, I can tell u without mincing words that Alhaji has given full backing to the sale !!

Those looking to KEY in can do so, but only after doing their calculations well. ...it's important to also know why u are buying and what u want out of the investment before taking a dive. Clearly, current price level has an ROI differential that one can 'tap' from.

Just a candid piece... not a recommendation.

DISCLOSURE: I have since sold off my stake in DF @ N18.80. ...I recall I stated that here back then.

robobo:
its not only about waiting (that is the lesser risk)

the Major Risk is Alhaji rejecting the offer then u wld be left with an empty shell cos the company had been loss making of recent then the price cld even plunge to sub 6 which was the last strong support

so LOOK WELL at your RISK before u park ur fortune inside ooooooo

like is said i have some unit which if thing go awry might be painful but wnt kill me

i wld rather w8 to get more hint that Alhaji had accepted the offer b4 i wld park a fortune inside the thing because at that point it take on the xterictics of a fixed deposit

robobo:
i think ur figure is correct going by current financials

where the risk is largely situated is if Alhaji does not accept the offer or ask for higher price and olam rejected (note it is only the N26 that is binding on Olam) if u also rememeber something similar happened to Alhaji of recent when he made a binding offer for a cement coy / plant on southafrica and the coy requested for higher pricing which Alhaji did not agree with hence the deal failed.

a lesser risk is that of long drawn / prolonged payment even if the deal scales through.

i think this two risk is what is being priced in and why the price on NSE is not closing in on the N21-25

so the question for you wld be how SURE are you that Alhaji wld accept the N26 / N130b offer

and are you ready to wait for the prolonged period before the cash is paid if the deal scales through? (particulary in this period of cash being king?)

N.b im a foot deep so my view might be tinted / biased

rebekah2011:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/26190_CHAMS_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2019.pdf
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/25430_CHAMS_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2019.pdf

I think that these people are trying to confuse person oooo. I do not understand, can someone please help me to interpret this NOTIFICATION.

RabbiDoracle:
Must you buy?

You go sabi rush for bus o.

One thing I learnt after 2008 financial crash was PATIENCE. I think I have loads of it.

After the nuptial flights of the termites, the frogs start warming up to do Owambe!

After some years, we will know how far.

yungestmoney:
I have some questions I'll love to pass across to u sir, can I send u a mail?

Mcy56:
Offers or bids?

Chibuking81:
My question is this, those who are discouraging others not to buy mtn, will they buy tomorrow? If the answer is yes then they are being selfish. Yes the price might move up or down after listing, even our Zenith bank, UBA and others do move up and down.

Tomorrow they will be the first to jump in and after the price might have move up, the same people will start encouraging others to come in, I still maintain that stock will nosedive today in preparation of mtn listing and welcome tomorrow , many will still bail out to get more cash ready to jump into mtn.

DeRuggedProf:

After they collect all the tithes and offerings from you, they will no longer hold the usual December party.
Reason: they will now remember their equipment are due for upgrade, you will start seeing inflated contracts with HUAWEI.....
Huawei will start upgrading software for millions of dollars
Network expansion will become unending...