₦airaland Forum

spicie:
Please gurus i need your speculations. After loosing about 5m between Nospetco, Treasuline nd wealth solution. I bought the followin shares. Dangote flour 55,000 units at 15N, WAPCO 6,500 units at 61.20k. this is secondary market, Nahco 7,100 units 17.50k. First bank 3000 units at 33. Japoul 100,000 units at 3.89k. Fidelity 72,500 units at 8N. Ibtc ethical found 315,789, Units at 1.90k can i recorver my atleast fifty % of my lost. And step should i suppose to take next. I need your speculations. Thanks

If indeed you lost so much money in your previous investment, then you need to take a step back and understand the risk reward matrix!

I am surprised that you still want to SPECULATE in the capital market. Why don't you take positions with the Long Term in view. Chances of making a loss increases with a reduction in the time you plan to spend in the market. Just watchout!!!!

alliednetw:
I think that with the current EPS of insurance companies,NEM and LASACO are becoming increasingly cheap

How did you arrive at the EPS of NEM Have you factored in the newly listed shares from the rights issue? Are you aware of the merger with Vigilante? Hope you factored in the shares that will be issued to the Vigilante shareholders to consumate the mergers.

All those insurance companies are clowns. The regulators also are useless. With banks, you get teh scheme of merger arrangement. For insurance companies, everything is done in secret. No info, nothing!!!!!

As per the fund kept with CBN, can someone confirm how much this is? Last I heard was that 10% of the sharehoders fund should be kept in an escrow account with CBN. 10% is not that big to change the fortunes of those companies drastically.

Except you have big liver, be very very careful with insurance companies!!!!!!!!!!

[quote author=Mr. Cee link=topic=31554.msg1571967#msg1571967 date=1191948621]Please people does it mean that no one in this forum is using Afrinvest west Africa as his/her broker I really want to know how their services are please help before I make a mistake I am almost morethan half way in opening an account with them your comments are highly needed[/quote]I use them. Currently they are cutting over their IT systems hence the online facility may not be available.

Being with them for a while from when they were known as SECTRUST

yodiyokun:
Wanaj0,

I know I could count on you.

Evans is off my radar since they have no results - shows something is brewing.

As for May & Baker. I turned up with 700M outstanding shares, I am not sure this includes the offer you mentioned ! What figures do you have for their shares.

Even with 700M and projecting a full year result based on that Half year - Its a no no . EPS of 0.2 and P.e of 42!!!

Unless the price comes down to N6 and they grow their PAT - no show for them.

Even GSK's forward PE is 24.

Wanaj0 , I know you have been around for years - what used to be the average PE for this sector because the numbers I am seeing is not impressive at all.

Or is my analysis off tangent here?


As for NGC - they definitely have my vote, any money I have now is going there - I wonder why they are not listed with health care.

I am not a Methuselah oooo.

Evans just turned around from loss making about a year or two ago. They also raised new funds.

May and Baker raised funds last year at 4.00 per share. The offer was oversubscribed. They did not take all the ovesubscription. PE in that sector use to between <10.00.

Authorised shares for M&B is 700m shares. I guess ALL the shares are now fully issued.

They are to grow their profit based on the bio vaccines but don't think that has taken off as at now. M&B is a strategic investment for long term players. Don't see them meeting the PO profit forecast for 2007! Currently, I think they are over priced!

NGC is listed in the Chemical sector because Chemicals was their core business before that became unprofitable. So they are now into healthcare, consumer products and oil services (chemicals). They are growing profit well and should declare a bonus now!!! No bonus for 5years now. Wetin?

easimoni:
It's good and should hit 30 within 18 months

Don't think so!!!!

It is not a liquid stock so not a focus of most investors. That tends to hinder the price movement.

The oil services arm is not contributing as much as expected due to reduction in oil activities in view of the Niger Delta problems.

The growth in profit of recent has being moderate. 25.00 will be a good one.

easimoni:
MBenefit YES, Livestock and Dunlop, NO.

Livestock and Dunlop are struggling to turn around and begin delivering profits. You can buy either one if you have a couple of years to wait. Dunlop is scheduled to be back in the black sometime in 2008. I plan on buying if/when that happens. Don't know much about Livestock.

Mbenefit is a sound insurance co. Should do well.

If Dunlop goes below 2.50, that will be a good price. With the money from the offer/rights, they should be able to restructure their debts and the turn around in principle should be complete. Hopefully, by 2008, the new production lines should be running thus contributing to the bottom line.

On insurance stocks, until the figures are out (outstanding shares based on merger, rights and PO), one should thread cautiously.

yodiyokun:
Anyone following GSK,

The half year results, do not look so promising - earnings are dropping?

Anyone with 1st Qtr or Half Yr results for May & baker and Evans medical

Half year result for May and baker shows a PAT of N89m which is a 60% improvement over prior year.

Considering the last PO that they did, that is still small. The Bio Vaccine plant is not yet in operation. For the medium term, May and Baker is a stock to look at.

Evans is yet to release its full year Dec 2006 result.

yodiyokun:
People,

What is stock is looking good at the moment?
(No P.Os please)

Anything interesting?

Diamond is looking attractive for the banks. Q1 result shows a 62.6% increase over previous year. At 17.00, 30% return is not far fetched. Price will likely be jerked up in readiness for the PO. That will likely be in 2008 though. So if you are satisfied with 30% in 6 months then go for it.

Flour Mills is also not looking bad.

OandO is an outsider for those who can take risks.

RoughCut:
@Gbengaijot

i think you might want to read this--->http://businessdayonline.com/National/463.html

UNTL is closing down operations with the loss of 4000 jobs so i'm just a bit baffled where you got the info that UNTL might be worth investing in or what gave you the feeling you seem to have about investing in UNTL. There's nothing like doing your own due diligence and as someone has already pointed out you don't invest based on your feelings
Sounds a bit harsh but it just goes to prove there's no substitute for doing your own homework

I wonder OOOO. Maybe the noise anout the FG textile intervention fund is his basis. He may need to know that teh sector is passing through difficult times and the problem will not go away overnight. Availability of LPFO is one. No way they can compete with the cement companies for that product. Smuggling is another. With cheaper smuggled textiles around, locally made ones are no longer competitive. They are closing factories all over the country.

While you may still make 100% buying UNTL, it will not be based on any good thing that the company is doing. At least people are making money buying and selling shares of Nigerian Wire and Cable. This is a company that is under ock and key.

stanchuks:
Are you telling that i should keep it after loosing more than half of my total income, i am actually looking at a short term thing say 6months, may be if any of the PO's could provide it, please am talking of 500K becoming 250K within just 6months, so i will definitly like the reversal since transcorp will not make it in 6months






my oga, no need, i don already flog the guy for my mind, but wetin i go do
so please i will like to know what kind of stocks will give me a turn around in the next 6month, am really not comfortable with transcorp,but my broker keep insisting

Capital market is for the long term. All this 6 months thing is too risky. No one knows for sure which stock will return 100% in 6 months. If they do, all will be buying that stock now.

You need to understand that making money in the capital market will require you having a longer term view of the market.

While I may have my stock picks, there is nothing that will guarantee a return in 6 months. That is the reality.

stanchuks:
To All Gurus
i will like a candid advise on this please, i bought transcorp on the floor at 9.71 due to the advise of my broker then, i was just going into stocks and had not being a part of this trend then, [b]my question really is can i sell my transcorp now at 4.00 for the available PO's that are around now? [/b]as usual my broker said i should hold but i have learnt not to listen to him since i can run to this trend

Firstly, sack your broker. A broker recommending Transcorp to you at 9.71 ripped you off. When the share was on technical suspension, the share was being sold at a discount. I suspect that your broker.

Secondly, it shows that the guy knows next to nothing.

As per the action to take, it depend on your kind of person.

If you are STRONG at heart, SELL!! Count your losses, learn your lessons and move on. Transcorp will not rebound in the short term. Use your money somewhere else. Hopefully you can recover the losses.

However, if you are the type that will SULK when you make a loss then continue to HOLD. At least you will not make a LOSS until you SELL. That should make you feel good.

Lesson, never TRUST a broker. It is your money so be on the drivers seat. Make the call yourself.

Feel like flogging that broker!

kingzy:
@Temmie 10, Easimoni, Wanajo, Shigini and other gurus,
I bought oceanic @ 18.50 on the floor during PO. Should I sell now and buy another good potential stock (which one)or is oceanic still a good short term stock? Is there any impending bonus and what ratio, not interested in dividend. Though I just bought some units of crusader. Please I need your answer urgently.Thanks

Personally, I will say offload 75% of your Oceanic holdings. It will take amiracle for them to declare a bonus. A N1.00 dividend will not be enough for a N30.00 stock. N30.00 is a good point to exit especially when you are in for the short term and you think you have better options. You've made over 50% so exit!

Put in another way, I will not be buying Oceanic at 30.00

shigidi:
thats been the trend for the past five years according to cashcraft. their Q4 profit always seems to account for more than 70% of its entire revenue. maybe their jobs are seasonal. will look into it but i think it may be good to wait for half year results for this current year.

A lot is due to the academic calendar. Most sales done at the beginning of a new session. But the gap is still so wide!!!

shigidi:
did anyone notice that access didnt gain 5% today. that was really quick. is the momentum done already??

Yes, momentum is over. No money to jerk up the price!!!!

gbengaijot:
@easimoni and wanajo, please do comment on Evans medical, crusader, and vitafoam.

I need those annual reports for school projects. If anyone has links, do post them on here

I tend to go for the 'best' in each sector.

Will rather go for May and baker instead of Evans

Not sold on any insurance stock for now. The uncertainty is too much. No one knows the number of oustanding shares with all the offers, rights and mergers. So many behind the scenes move that makes calaculation difficult.

Vitafoam is not bad. result normally comes out in February. Facing a lot of competition with dwindling margins.

gbengaijot:
I was having a look at basically three stocks, i don't know why, but i am having a feeling of buying them. Crusader Insurance, Evans Medical and vitafoam. Does anyone consider this a very stong buy at all?,


Does anyone know how i can get annual report (year 2000-2005) and 5-year summary (2000 - 2005) for this two companies:
1. NEM Insurance Co. PLC
2. United Nigerian Textiles.


I sure will appreciate your comments,

Well, if you buy UNTL, then you msut be ready for a long wait. it is a loss making company and things will not change soon.

On NEM, price is falling. They merged with Vigilante hope this will bring about a change for good in their fortunes. Not sure what the outstanding shares number is.

shigidi:
@ easimoni, temmie 10. i read an article about intercontinental this week that caught the eye. from its financial history, its Q1 PAT is only 15% of its earnings for the year. based on this their PAT should be 31 billion . for a stock that has 18.9 billion shares it still yields an eps of 1.68. and a forward pe of 15. doesnt look too shabby ehn??\most analysts put PAT at 22bn because its Q1 PAT was 4.7 billion.

Maybe for the long term. Not sure how many convertible loans they have on their books.

Good thing is that Erastus is a core banker!

shigidi:
@ easimoni, your fsdh report was accurate. university press did a rights issue of 1 for 1. so it doubled their shares outstanding and the trailing eps stands at 0.364. its trailing pe is now 17. still not bad. however, i took a look at longmans figures(in the same sector) and its solid as a rock!!! trailing eps of 1.23 which gives it a current pe of 10. i checked the sec link you gave me and they have not had any offer or rights recently. looks like a good one.

Longman appears good but will wait for the Q2 result. Trying to forecast the full year result based on the Q1 result is difficult. Something just does not add up.

No collateral in most cases but the interest rate is KILLING!!!!!!

stanchuks:
i actually bought NGC based on your analysis of it on this trend, if i may ask, whats the problem with japaul, you are the first that has complained of it, please why is it a no buy?

please why is Fidelity bad?

When you discount the media hype, NGC holds more value than Japaul. NGC is also into oil servicing now. For me, I don't see myself selling NGC to buy Japaul.

As per Fidelity, nothing against them. However, I prefer best stocks in a sector. Fidelity does not fit that bill.

RoughCut:
Yeah bought a lot of Oceanic during the PO(should have bought more) so i will wait for the post-suspension bull and bear run and then take the opportunity when people are dumping to acquire some more and DEFINITELY a long-term hold for me. It just looks attractive and stable
On UBA i think earlier this year they were involved in a money laundering scam and i think they were fined millions of dollars by New York financial regulators so your take on the management style is spot-on let`s just say i' don't regret not taking a position as such

In fairness to Tony, the laundering scam was before the merger. Prior to the merger, UBA was a bank of fraudsters. Not sure that anything has changed. You can never trust the interim result because by year end there will be huge provision for some doubtful debts etc.

On Oceanic, I see it as a growth stock in the medium term. There may not be that much appreciation now but in later years, it will do well. Bought at 6.00 last year and I am not regretting it.

RoughCut:
Even when the entry price for UBA was about N35 it was not an option for me although may be i should have bought then but it was expensive even then considering the P/E ratio. So Oceanic is it for me and possibly WEMA(speculative i dare say but looks like there's real dosh to be made still crunching numbers) but it looks cheap at the moment .Although it doesnt help they havent released anything close to a proper result in about 3 years so watching and waiting

Never liked UBA management. From Bello-Osagie to Tony Elumelu, I am suspicious of them. For me UBA has no unique selling point. Will not complain though. Made some huge profit from it. But will never be my LONG term holding.

Oceanic is well positioned so should do well on the LONG run. Above 30.00, Oceanic is pricey so if you wnat to speculate, just look for 25% return or thereabout.

WEMA is risky. Bought @<4.00 this year so I can ride the tide. If the result is as expected, WEMA should reach 15.00. If the planned offer go ahead, then WEMA should reach 20.00. If expectations are not met, WEMA will be around 6.00.

So based on your rsk profile, make a decision.

RoughCut:
yeah tell me about it , what with Ibeto cement plant opening or is it opened already? and the presido threatening to flood the market with imported cement . This can only mean one thing-share prices will soon be heading down south so i think cement stock is not looking terribly attractive at the moment.
Have a look at the Costain (WA) although from the quick scan i did at the results the PE seems high at about 72 with price of 19 but have they got juicy contracts in the pipeline? yes billions of naira worth and they have declared a handsome profit N172M i think and very few outstanding shares but i guess we need to do some number crunching but its worth watching

Well, you need to take and look at each company on its own merits.

WAPCO will not grow turnover that much. However they should grow profit based on the debt restructuring and improved efficiency. For half year, the profit margin was affected by gas supply disruption due to the ND crisis. Line is now fixed with gas supply restored so expect improvement in the second half of the year.

On Ashaka, similar problems. LPFO was not available so could not produce at full capacity. Hence expect a drop in turnover and profit. Trying to do some improvements on the plant. The only good thing about ASHAKA, is the huge cash reserve. So they may still be able to give 'fairly good' dividend even in the face of dwindling profit.

CCNN, for is a no no until it goes to 10.00 or thereabout.

IBETO has nothing to do with the cement industry in Nigeria. Ibeto is a marginal player. Total capacity is 1.5m tonnes. That is not enough to affect the market in the scheme of things. All the noise made by IBETO is nothing but propaganda.

yodiyokun:
Wanaj0
I thought you were not a fan of Dansugar - I recall you saying somewhere else that its not a growth stock and not suitable for capital appreciation.

Any reason for the change of mind.

Easimoni,

I know it I buy either Oceanic /UBA, its to sit tight on it , thats why I am looking for suggestions. I am tired of my money sitting with my broker ojare.

I am not a fan of any stock really.

On Dangote Sugar, at 40.00, I will let it pass. However at 31.00 (30% discount) that is a bargain. The discussion was held when dangote was 40.00 - 42.00 range and people were still expecting further appreciation. For me, that was a no no. But it 31.00, it is a MUST BUY. At 40.00 - 42.00 it is a HOLD/SELL depending on your strategy.

I prefer Oceanic to UBA. Never trusted UBA one bit!!!!!!

NBA:
@wanaj0

Great price for Dangote Sugar at 30.62, how did you pull that one off? Did you place a price limit? I got some at 31.68.

What do you guys think about IBTC, suspension just got lifted and it started its climb.
[/quot[quote author=NBA link=topic=31554.msg1550215#msg1550215 date=1191341065]@wanaj0

Great price for Dangote Sugar at 30.62, how did you pull that one off? Did you place a price limit? I got some at 31.68.

What do you guys think about IBTC, suspension just got lifted and it started its climb.

Placed a price limit for 31.00.

You will not get IBTC to buy. Less than a million units was sold today. I expect the bid to be over 100m!!!!!

Transcorp is worth looking at ow. it appears to have bottomed out. I expect long term investors to be taken up position now. I will wiat till the release of the 2006 result though.[/quote]

yodiyokun:
Chei,

What was I thinking, ?

Wema get as e be ojare, but I am actually thinking of Oceanic and UBA, since their Yr end is september.

Anyone know how many shares of Oceanic and UBA are yet to be listed (from their public offer earlier this year)

Dangote sugar @ 34 dosent look too good , to what level will it appreciate, can it pass 40 , I doubt it oooo.

Dangote should conveniently break the 40.00 in no distant future. It should inch towrads 50.00 by march 2008.

yodiyokun:
My guys,

What other stock is looking juicy at the moment (no public offers oo). I want to buy something this week.

I missed dansugar and crusader because of my slowness, can you imagine they have gone up about 15% in 4 days. what was I thinking!!!!!!!!!!!.

will invite you for thanksgiving service!!!! Bought Dangote Sugar last week at 30.62. My broker actually bought double what I requested for. Just told them to keep ALL for me and that I will settle the liabilities.

Dangote Sugar still looking good. UNIC and WEMA are risky but nice for speculation. Watch Oceanic also.

No PO is attractive to me!!!! So will allow them to pass.

shigidi:
@ easimoni, temmie10 and wanajo,
i've been paying much attention to a stock no one seems to talk about-ETI. maybe its the price tag that puts people off but in all honesty its actually the cheapest banking stock out there. current pe of 18, projected pe of 15. forecast eps of 11.5. however, i wont attach a pe of 26-28 based on its low growth rate, more like a 22-24.
anyway it should be easily a 260 naira stock. and only a billion shares so bonus issue is very likely.
i don't know why its been on suspension for such a long time though.

ETI is good in terms of fundamentals. However market sentiment is not in its favour.

Being on technical suspension because of a planned offer.

At > N170.00 the natural mentality is to see it as being expensive. They actually did a stock split this year but still it is deemed pricey.

Also since it is quoted on three exchanges, the Nigerian factor of pushing price upwards will not affect it that much. If it appears expnsive in Nigeria, I will go and buy in Ghana or CIV.

Another thing is that it is not a very liquid stock. Number of outsanding shares is limited.

They have agood growth potential. They are expanding to oil rich Central Africa. They are also planning BIG for Nigeria. Good stock to own in my view even if not for immediate capital gain. Definitely not a speculative stock.

Look like a simple question but no easy answer.

What I would suggest you do is to develop a financial plan that will take you from where you are now to where you want to be in 5, 10, 15 years etc.

There is no 'one financial plan' for every man. The plan will have to be tailored to your peculiar situation.

As a general rule, you move from the level of savings to investment. That is you start to save first. Out of your savings you start to invest. Type of investment that you go to is a function of age, status, risk profile etc.

Tmoni:
i can handle it but was thinking of using the funds for dangote flour and maybe FCMB PO or just having sthto keep, i mean money market is always there


would over this one with my broker and let u know the result,
make person finish this sch sef, start better thing

For me, Dangote Sugar is more attractive than Dangote flour. At the current low price of stocks in the secondary market, the primary market is not attractive at all.

Tmoni:
@ wanj0

lets say i buy about 100,000 units of dangote sugar at N31 and sell off at about N40,
i did a small calculation and the profit that would accrue should in the region of 600-700 k after commisions,

say i get a loan for this at 15%, hw long do u think it would take to get to this sell off point going with the maximum 5% on bidding at the exchange.

since its for short term, no need to commit my own funds, thats what i think
opinion

How I wish I have a crystal ball!!!!!!!

Seriously, worst case scenario, I will expect Dangote Sugar to be at N40.00 minimum by March/April 2008. For all you know, it may climb up to that by November.

The problem with borrowed funds (especially if it is short term) is being forced to sell at the wrong time. If you can structure your finance in such a way that if things don't go as you plan, you can still hold on to your fundamentally sound stock then noproblem. Otherwise, just stay away from borrowed funds. If not properly handled, you will lose the gaisn you already have.

I do use borrowed funds but well structured in such a way that it does not affect my cashflow.

Temmie10:
Dangote sugar might go down a bit more.
The market is shaping up very nicely with stocks hitting new lows everyday, just look at nascon, ashaka
Transcorp is still relentless but looking very interesting too.
I'm looking to see if some better value stocks shed more fat

No problem if Dangote Sugar goes down a bit more. However, for me, 31.00 is so attractive that I will not miss it. Will not bother if it falls to 25.00. It will easily crawl back to 38.00. For the short term, that is good. For the long term, it is also lovely.

Transcorp is really for the LONG term.