Wanaj0's Posts
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yodiyokun:Just wait till September when the amrket normally takes a slump and see what will happen! Someone just used N8m loan to buy First Bank because of the 1 for 6!!!! A fool and his money are soon parted! |
easimoni:I don't even own a single WAPIC. Well just do your research well or else you will be left dry by the insuarnce companies. Are you aware that NEM did a rights issue? Are you aware that on top of that they merged/acquired Vigilante insurance. Hope you've factored that in. Are you aware that UNIC is 'selling' the non life bit of their business henc eyou need to discount the income from that going forward? Well as a starting point you need to get FULL audited account of those companies before you put your moeny there if you are not a gambler like most people. |
shigidi:Yes but there will be a shift in PE. Up till 2005, Average PE's on the NSE was less than 10. Now companies with PE's of 30 are looking attractive especially with the bloated outstanding shares. Right now, the 'fundamentals' does not support the prices of most stocks. Most have returned over 100% while the earnings did not grow that much. Well, it is the bullish run. Let's take advantage of it while not forgetting the fact that when the bears come also you must be ready to ride the tide. I mean some peoples holdings are in stocks that are lot liquid!!!! In a beraish environment, you will hawk those shares around there will be no buyer! Same way they gained 5% everyday they will be losing 5% everyday and you can't do anything apart from screaming down your brokers neck! |
koksieboy:Shine your eye well well!!! How many people got first bank to buy when the Technical suspension was lifted? Try it with first bank and see your broker tell you not available! Truth is you need to understand what is going on in the market or else you will get suckered in! For me, Flour Mills is a stock to bank on for the long term. Good fundamentals and growth. That the stock did not get a beating after declaring only 90k dividend shows that it will hold good. It is 75.00. Hope that helps. Just to sound a note of warning, all those that started investing some 12months ago and have only witnessed the bullish run, don't be fooled! There are bears in the market. With the bullish run, every one is a stock guru. At least if you bought Wire and Cable that is not producing anything you still have capital appreciation! Soon there will be a shaking then everyone will find its level. Then there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth. Be warned!!! |
koksieboy:Stockmarket is good for longterm investment. I don't invest in the capital market for taht your timeframe. |
valhalla:Well, it depend on your kind of person. To start with, who is managing the portfolio? Are you sure of returning of 26%? Because the 19% and 3% plus transaction fees (4%) takes you to about 26% before you even start to make money. Thread carefully and be sure that you know what you are doing. Secondly you need to be sure of the small prints as touching the other conditions. I also hope that you are VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE about the market. Don't expect the bullish run to continue. If there is a correction, you may likely lose your 30% contribution. All that glitters is not gold! |
shigidi:Wetin you need the result for? Hope you know that WEMA is yet to release the AUDITED March 2006 result so don't expect March 2007 soon! I bought at N3.50 so I don't need their result to sell. On a serious note, WEMA is damn risky but under the current bullish market should do fine! |
easimoni:The analyst wrote the report in bad state. I don't like Access Bank but there is no sense in what the guy wrote. On Audit committee, no executive director is on Access banks audit committee. I have the report here. Only two non executive directors are in that commitee (Otubu and Maduka). What the ignorant analyst was referring to was the boards internal audit committee which is made up of board members. That is chaired by Otubu. He talked about the audited account beiang qualified. Yes that is true. It was because of the goodwill. Can't lay my hands on the interview by Atedo Peterside now why he mentioned treatment of goodwill as part of why he is against consolidation. Access does not want to amortise its goodwill so as to pay dividend. The treatment Access gave to teh goodwill is not supported by Companies and Allied Matters Act 1990 and Access Bank's accounting policy. However at an AGM of 31 August 2006, the shareholders approved the directors resolution on the proposed treatment of the goodwill. Based on this they got a Federal High Court sanction for the treatment. There is also a CBN circular BSD/24/2006 of 17 October 2006 to ALL banks allowing such treatment! All these info are available to this analyst. He talked about 'manipulation' of hsre price. Well tell me what happened to Zenith, Intercontinental, UBA, Oceanic etc before their last offers? It just shows how stupid some of this analysts are. I don't like Access but it is for things totally different from the hogwash written by this analyst! |
shigidi:I invest for the long term so our situation may be different. Two weeks ago Nigerian German was as low as 12.00. I bought then. Now it is 17.00. I see it getting to 25.00 next year. Some are looking at 28.00. It will oscillate between 15.00 and 18.00 for a while. So make your choice. |
polonet:Not normal. Try and find out the cause of the delay. Mine already credited into my CSCS. BTW, Danjuma don buy that company finish. Out of about 365m units the man bought almost 130m!!!! |
Temmie10:Not all the companies met the consolidation target by raising capital. Some merged, while some scaled down their operation by focusing on either on Life or Non Life. As per the bolded portion, release of money raised by the company is critical to tehir performance. It is like borrowing money that is not released for your use!!! Once that is done hopefully by the end of the month or early next month, you will see change. To analyse NEM or any insuarnce company well, you need to know scheme of arrangement for their merger, the subsription level etc. One thing is however clear, those GROWING their profits at high rates are worth looking at. |
Temmie10:Temmie, I did not pick up my own rights so I know like almost all the insurance offers were undersubscribed. Globe Re was still hawking its private placement document around last week for an offer that closed Sept 2006. For the insurance companies, PEG tells you more than the PE. What people are paying for now is the future earnings/growth. See how much they all are growing their profit. What do you think will happen when NAICOM/CBN release the money made from the consolidation but kept in the escrow account. NEM's righst was done at 56k or thereabout!!!! While not canvassing for anyone to buy NEM one thing is clear, the insurance companies that gets their acts right will be a gold mine. Yes, all the information needed are not available. I will however take a risk with them. |
Temmie10:No problem. You don't have to buy. While I appreciate your fears, you need to understand that your analysis is incomplete. Like I said, most of those offers were undersubsribed so not all the rights were taken up. secondly, NEM merged with Vigilant insurance so there is a bit of grey area as touching the outstanding shares. Same thing for ALL the insurance companies that merged. What I can confidently say is that the merger of NEM with Vigilante insurance has done the company a lot of good. |
easimoni:well, you are joining tha party late. The insurance PO's were cheap and seriously undersubscribed. UNIC wnet for 1.10 and still undersubscribed that's why you cannot use the prospectus for making analysis now! Secondly, most of them will meet their profit forecast. The funds raised during the PO are still with CBN/NAICOM so are not able to use for the purpose they wanted to use it for. Some of them have also merged or acquire some otehr companies. So you need to consider that also. Generally, the insurance sector is the hotcake now. With pension reform, health insurance, compulsory life assurance local content policy, compulsory building insurance, the opportunities are just massive! Very few data on them are reliable but it is a sector worth positioning for. |
Kenjo:Will not bank on May and Baker for the short term. For the Long term, solid company! Danjuma bought almost 30% of the last PO that they made. Now he wons over 22% of the company. Not too positive about AIICO also. Last result was good but there is a lot of ABRACADABRA in their results. |
crazyT:A lot depend on your personality. Lassaco comes highly recommended by most brokers but sorry, I will not buy. Simply because they are not a major player in that industry. I personally go for stocks that are LEADERS in their area of operation or aspiring leaders. Alternatively, if they have a niche market in the sector then I will take a look. Lassaco to me has none of that. Personally, I love UNIC. They are market leader in health insurance. Also, the've cleaned up their books based on 2005 result. Yet to see the 2006 result. Bought the IPO (1.10) which was grossly undersubscribed like most of the insurance offers. NEM also is very good but knowing that I rejected the rights at 56k, will not feel emotionally good buying it now. WAPIC and Crusader are going to be major players. WAPIC has the advantage of having a bank behind it. AIICo appears cheap based on current valuation but I need to see their annual report. So many abracadabra of recent. if onle LEADWAY is quoted. That would have been the ONLY insurance stock for me! |
easimoni:Brother I dey. Soemtimes is good to let others share their views. Flour Mills result was solid even though the 90k dividend was a disgrace. That the share still held its own shows that all is well!!! Though I don't like the Chairman of the board, Flour Mills is up to BIG things. Growth and profitability are excellent. May wait till October to buy them though. On OandO, though the PE is low, there are many other things holding the price down. One of them is corporate governance. See how Ocean and Oil increase their holdings through teh so called merger scheme arrangement. To amke matters worse, they talked about almost doubling EPS just like that. That is creative accounting as far as I am concerned. Another thing is the high turnover of its management staff. That is making investors uncomfortable. Last is the fact that the margin in that industry generally is reducing. If not for the EI, OandO's profit would have dropped. OandO was forced to pay almost all its earnings out as dividend just to keep the price up! This is sinspite of the huge debt overhang and the need to fund expansion projects. That sector for me is not the way to go irrespective of the PE. C & I will be scarce. It is also not a very liquid stock anyway. Don't worry about Beta Glass. It should rebound. But for the long term I will be careful. Turnover is not growing. With NAFDAC's plan to stop bottling companies from having their product in bottles as from 2008/2009, things will be hard for them. AIICO looks good but I don't trust them. They do some abracadbra sometimes. |
easimoni:For IBTC, there are other rules that drives there stock selection. Diversification is one of them. Another is the capitalisation of the stock and liquidity. That's why Conoil with reducing profit in a sector that has minimal growth made the list!!!!! OandO has been on that list since the beginning of the year and the return is almost nil in a market that has returned 50% on the average. No way I will buy any stock in the petroleum marketing sector until there is deregulation!!! The margins are just too small. Competition so stiff. Growth minimal and capital requirement HUGE. |
easimoni:You and this your OandO fascination. Hope you've factored in the fact that the turnover drop hence if the margin remains the same that there will be a drop in profit? I expect margins to even drop due to the refusal of government to deregulate teh sector. Though the six months result shows an increase in profit, note that this is due to an Exceptional Item. Personally, the petroleum marketing sector is not a place to be. Margins are thin and will continue to reduce until government decide to deregulate the sector. Focus on Insurance, healthcare, Chemicals and the banking sector. That's where the growth will come from. C & I and Japaul (based on offer price and profit forecast) are good ones also. They are set to benefit from the local content policy . If there is a stock that is cheap now, it is Flour Mills especially for the long term. Nigerian German will be a good one after the current pull back. |
oluwatosyn:Just go to the registrar. They will give you an indemnity form to fill and issue another certificate to cover the lost one. The big deal is having to go to teh registrar. If you have a broker, that should help. Note however that it may take sometime. |
ty_ademolu: Atam-Man:I can't blame the brokers here. You placed an order which was executed for you. Lesson, never accept the advice of a broker without you checking yourself. Note that whether you make a profit or not, the broker will make his money from commissions. 1.e he benefits from your joy or sorrow. Also, never place an order without putting a price limit!!! You should not give a broker a blanket chewue to buy at whatever price! So what made you to buy those stocks at those prices? Hype most likely. I feel for you. However, I expect many more people to get their fingers burnt. Some only remember the bullish run on the NSE forgetting that first half of 2005 was very bearish! The insurance sector is correcting the share prices. NAHCO is doing the same though still over priced!!!!! |
egoldman:Well you are doing business with the broker (individual) and not the company!!!!!!! Be wary of that!!!!!!!! I prefer to deal with 'reputable' company who have their name to protect. With that, if they try to play funny I can make a lot of noise. But with an individual with little or nothing to lose, I will be careful! |
windywendy:Yes you do have two weeks after closure of a public offer for filing of returns. That normally takes a week. Anything after that you are on your own!!! No way that statement in bold can be true!!!! For starters, NSE has no control over other capital market operators hence cannot issue an order to any of them. It is only SEC that can do that. Knowing the proceedure for concluding an offer, no way certificates will be issued after one month. What NSE has said was that they will lift Technical suspension about two weeks after the conclusion of an offer. For certificates, expect nothing less than 4 months for bank offers. E-allotment will hopefully solve the problem. |
Temmie10:we are in a bull run so people can ride the tide and throw fundamentals to the wind. If not, fidelity will not be on my buy list. On Ashaka, Ashaka is doing like a badly managed company. Huge cash reserves but no expansion plan. They are really a small cement company producing less than 1m tonnes. They've grown turnover based on increase in price. With Obajana and BCC entering Ashaka's catchment area then things will become a lot more difficult! WAPCO currently has more value. For risk takers, go for Ashaka. On Dangote flour, sorry Flour Mills is the leader in that sector. Competition in the flour business is huge. So I don't expect it to be a success like DSR. Even then, DSR has only returned about 120% since November. If you bought Oceanic then on the floor, you will be talking about a better return. There is a lot of hype around teh Dangote business BCC and NAHCO are stocks that have done extrordinarily well in recent times. Both have returned over 1,000% in the past 24 months! Until you see the prospectus, you cannot say whether any PO is a good buy or not. One major advantage of a PO is the opportunity to BUY large units in good companies. Also, you don't pay the transaction charges. |
shigidi:Wema result for which year? Result for YE March 2006 is yet to be released. That should tell you the likely time for the release of the 2007 result. Maybe by November 2007. ![]() |
Boboayuze: Temmie10:Depending on the terms of the acquisition. The major shareholder (player) can shortchanged you. There are so many things that comes to play in mergers and acquisitions. Personally, going forward, I believe the Sterling and other fringe players will soon disappear |
Starchuks, I will not buy Sterling or Livestock feeds. Don't think the two are the BEST in tehir sectors. For the long term, I don't see Sterling being in existence. It is a good candidate for acquisition. As per Livestocks feed, there is nothing fantastic about them! |
egoldman:Ibeto's entry is no effect. All that crashing of price is propaganda. He will only import 1.5m tonnes which is not much in the scheme of things. Secondly, he will be importing via PH. Main competition will be with Bulkem. |
frankiriri:For me there is really nothing like fair value!!!! This is because you can use different models to calculate what you think the price of a share should be. PE is just one. Dividend yield is another, net asset value, price to book value etc. Howver, PE is easy and stright forward. |
BabaOlu:No trade in GREIF since the beginning of this week. It is not a liquid stock SavvyLanre:Ashaka is having one basic problem Not able to grow profit due to drop in production volumes. This was being compensated for by increase in price. The only 'good' thing is the huge cash reserve that they have. Was surprised that Ashaka did not go for any expansion. Going forward, Ashaka will face competition from BCC and Obajana since they basically target the same market. |
enurayce:Don't stay off the insurance sector but open your eyes wide! There is a lot of 'financial engineering' going on there. The sector is not as well regulated as the banking sector. If you have a long term view then go for the insurance sector. The opportunities are there. Government policies are favourable. The sector is set for a boom. However, shine your eye. As per the company going for 95k, it is a private placement. It came out last year and I ignored it. Officially, it closed Sept 2006. Just the same way the international energy closed in 2006 but they still collected from people till two weeks before listing. I tend to invest for the LONG TERM though I can take advantage of short term opportunities. If I will place an order today, I will buy Nigerian German and May and Baker. As per buying IPO's, First Bank will likely be the first to do e-allotment. let's see how that goes. At least we've had E-bonus already. However, note that it takes a while to complete a PO. The one for banks even take longer due to CBN verification. Hence, you need to have a LONG TERM view for PO's |
windywendy:Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals and their new oil services subsidiary. They are supplying chemicals to the oil companies and with the local content policy, they are game!!!!! Compare with CAP PLC, it is undervalued. They only need to declare bonus for YE 2007 and you will see the price hit the roof. Price comeing down now based on the 45k dividend which is beileved as unattractive. |
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