Wanaj0's Posts
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Iwerebor:You heard wrongly!!!! For those that subscribed for anything above 50,000, the registrar is just despatching such certificates now. Some went to the registrars office to PERSONALLY pick up their certificates. Most are yet to verify them. If you go for any offer, no that you are in it for the LONG TERM or else you will get your fingers burnt! |
Atam-Man:Nigerian German is undervalued. Price is coming down because of the 45k dividend without any bonus which seems not to meet the expectation of some people. But it is a company set for growth. See it bottom out and make a rush for it. May and Baker is teh best in its sector right now. Their Bio Vaccine investment should start to yield money from next year. The dividend declared this year was not encouraging (30k). But expect them to make akill from teh bio vaccine factory. Note this is for the long term (not speculation). As per FBN, I expect the suspension to be lifted within the next six weeks MAXIMUM. A lot depend on the result that they are going to declare. If it is only dividend, then teh technical suspension may be lifted way after the release of teh result. However, if the result will include a bonus, I expect them to lift the suspension before the release of teh result. Whatever happens, the result must be out before the end of August! |
enolase:Even if you did you will be making paper profit! Your certificate will still be nowhere to be found. When it is finally sent to you you will have to verify and lodge it in CSCS. Most often those trades are cross deals, merging of accounts and consolidation of holdings just to jerk up the price. People with short term view of the market will get heart attack looking at potential 'gains' that they've missed. If I am you, I will close my eyes to them! the funny thing is that most of the insurance companies actually have their offers serious undersubscribed!!!! I know a re insurance company that did an offer at 85k and it was to have closed in Sept 2006. Now there asking me to come and buy at 95k prior to their listing! Why? It was undersubsribed and they needed money. Once I buy, it will be listed on teh NSE in a couple of weeks with teh pricegaining 5% everyday whereas no one has received the certificate yet! IGI did a private placement about 12 months ago but no certificate yet! For all you know it was undersubscribed! let it get listed now and see what will ahppen! |
Iwerebor:IF you can get First Bank to buy on the floor then you will make your 25% on your returns easily!!!!!!! That you can take to the bank. However, if you are willing to stay for 1 year, 40% return on Nigerian German and May and Baker once the price bottoms out is achievable. For those raving about insuarnce stocks, be careful!!!! The ones gaining price are the newly listed stocks with minimal trade on them. For example, no trade on Guinea Insurance today. Equity insurance traded only 15,000 units. On paper you can think of making gains. Reality is that you will not get those shares to buy until the supply has increased and the room for increase is reduced. I believe in fundamentals. You can hardly go wrong. Look for undervalued stocks with growth prospect and have a medium term outlook. Most started investing on the NSE during the bullish run. It is not always like that and it will not continue to be like that. There will be correction at a point. Those with fundamentally sound stocks will be the ones to make profit or survive when (not if) the bears appear! |
rowlandwhy:The story is more like a fiction. You don't transfer 300m to an account without an alarm. NDLEA, CBN etc will need to be notified. No way such an amount will enter an account and stay that long. Transferring to another account does not help because he can still be traced. Hope your freind is not using an excuse to justify or explain his new found status! Query him more as to the source of his money! |
egoldman:Like I siad, it is most likely a posting error. Postings are normally done with account numbers. Not always do they confirm that the number and teh name are the same. Also, it is possible that the person making the payment was the one that made a mistake in the deposit slip filling a wrong account number. Yes the error will finally be detected considering the amount involved. |
egoldman:Quite possible for such a POSTING error to be made. Have had a situation where my Broker purportedly paid a substantial amount of money into my account. The money was tehre for over a week while I tried to unravel the mystery behind the payment. Many things can be responsible but I suspect posting error. The bank will discover with time. |
nossycheek:Trans Express is in Commercial Services. It is a courier company. Not a liquid stock though. However, note that Redstar Express did a private placement at about 4.00. The good thing is that Trans Express is undervalued. Even if you can get a little now, you will then be entitled to the planned RIGHTS! That to me is a good opportunity. As per NBC, just check the Q1 result. Check the Abuja plant. You are buying based on expected future performance |
easimoni:What you have is a trailing or historical PE. When you buy you are buying into the future. Check the Q1 PE of NBC and the profit forecast for May and Baker. I tend to take positions before the market recognises the value. Nigerian German is also not a bad buy in terms of fundamentals |
easimoni:You should jump out from BETA Glass now. Look for May and Baker. They are well positioned for growth NBC is another one worth considering. Also check out the insurance stocks. UACN, don't be carried away by the PE. It is distorted by the exceptional income that they have. UACN being making money from selling assets!!!!! Mr BIGGS is facing many competition so no longer a major player. Yet to see where the ACTIS investment is going in to. For me, a no no. If you can, go for TransNationwide Express. They will be doing a rights offer soon. You can potentially make a kill with that. |
frankiriri:Frankiriri, be encouraged in your drive. I beleive it will work well. I belong to anotehr investment club. We have only 7 members. We incorporated it as a company because of teh long procedure of incorporating a club. We contribute 50k monthly. Started almost two years ago. Missed only one months contribution since we started. I joined the investment club basically to provide others opportunity to learn. It was a way of introducing people to investment. Yes there are problems with manging temperament, risk profile etc. However, it is always good if it is made up of friends who will not allow money to destroy the friendship. |
RoughCut:No major impact. If Sugarcane becomes scarce, refined sugar also will become scarce. Hence you will see an increase in the cost of refined sugar with DSR margins remain almost fixed. Reason is simple, no alternative yet to sugar. That said, DSR is setting up plantation for Sugar cane. |
cheexy:GTB yes but not above 30.00 in my opinion. |
cheexy:A lot has to do with personality and your risk tolerance level. Rumours are that FBN will be oversubscribed and will hit 70.00!!! Learnt that they've already raked in N80bn without returns from Broker.s So a 200% subscription (N200Bn) is possible. If that is the case, price of First Bank will hit the roof. Diamond seems over priced. However, if they declare bonus and come again for offer, the Oceanic impact may likely re occur. Anyway expect Diamond to reach 25.00. Wema Bank is another good one but very risky. YE 2006 audited result is not yet out (unadited result now on their website). If they meet the YE March 2007 forecast, then the price should be in the 15.00 range. With little government holding, they are set for great things if they can get their acts together. They may also go for an offer because they are currently one of the smallest banks. May and Baker, good for the Medium term. The 2006 result was way below the forecast as contained in the prospectus for the PO. However, they seems to be on to good things once the Bio Vaccine starts production. WAPCO is still fairly valued in the Cement sector. Trans Express, if you EVER get it to buy may be a penny stock that might skyrocket soon. Oando is looking riskier everyday. Just check out how many OandO shares they are planning to issue to Ocean and Oil!!!! Will wait for their restructuring before taken positions. Moreover, petroleum marketing is a no go area until they deregulate the sector. GTB does not 'jerk' up its price in readiness for offer so will not take position based on an impending offer. However, GTB at 30.00 is not bad. It is worth going for. |
windywendy:There was actually a time that Ashaka declared dividend of 232k per share. The explanation then was because of the huge reserves and devaluation of Naira may erode the value. CAP PLC also paid special dvidend this year of 200k per share. My beef with Ashaka is always why don't you use the money for expansion instead of putting it in intesret bearing account. You hardly hear ashaking doing any offer just because of this huge reserve. I know at a point they drew down on the reserve for e new kiln or something of that nature. http://www.lafargewapco.com/ That shows you the change by Wapco. No website yet for Ashaka. |
windywendy:Na rumour so you can never be sure. It sounds plausible though. WAPCo is now Lafarge WAPCo. They can do the same with Ashaka and combine their businesses. Then Lafarge will be the one quoted I assume. Obajana uses gas. Ashaka uses coal. Coal is cheaper than gas. As per the cash reserves, N1bn was only the interest income!!!!!! At a conservative 10% interest rate that is about N10bn cash!!!!!! That's not small money. Not seeing there full report so cannot explain why the profit dropped. A number of things can be responsible. Pension fund liability? Deferred tax payment? Major capital investment for expansion etc. So until the details are out, it will be too early to make a final call. What I know however is that in terms of competition, Ashaka is not well placed due to limited capacity. |
windywendy:Well, there are other alternatives. There are rumours that Lafarge will merge WAPCO and Ashaka together. There are rumours of a 20% expansion plan. There are two things that still make Ashaka attractive. One is the huge cash reserve. There interest income for 2005 was like N1Bn!!!! That means funds to fund any expansion plan will not be a problem. Secondly, they seem to ahve the cheapest source of energy in coal. Remember that energy is the greatest cost contributor in cement production. |
windywendy:Planning to invest. Hope to still bump one or two questions to the CEO. For me, main proposition is the fact that they are the first to start so will have an advantage. For the competition, my understanding is that it is being promoted by UBA. If that is the case the bureau is not that independent. Accenture is just a consultant to them and nothing more. Personally, anything that involves UBA (Tony/Hakeem), I try to avoid it. There is nothing that says in a place like Nigeria that we cannot have more than two bureaus. Yes it is risky (every start up business is). But it worth the risk with the banks that have subscribed to them. Will invest the minimum which is like the maximum that I can afford to lose. It is not a capital intensive venture. It is driven by technology so roll out and expenasion should not be an issue. |
This is what I got from the CEO of CR Dear XXXXXX: >>> You asked: What is the nature of the investment of the banks in the credit bureau? <<< I assume you are referring to some banks' investment in the CRC. If so, I would assume that the nature of their investment is both for capital appreciation and to utilize the services that would eventually be provided by the CRC. >>> You stated/asked: It is a bit confusing that the same banks will invest in two different companies in competition with one another? >>> Well, a bank may choose to hedge its bet. And some banks understand that Nigeria can accommodate more than one credit bureau and choose to invest in both. >>> If the banks did not form CRC then how are they investors in CRC? <<< They are investors in the same way that CreditRegistry is inviting some banks to invest in it. I urge you, however, to use your own sources to find out the origin of the CRC - as I have already mentioned it was promoted by UBA with Accenture's assistance. In order to gain credibility they needed to bring other banks on board since a bank does not a credit bureau make. Note that in their situation other banks may be suspicious that it is a UBA-owned credit bureau, a situation that does not arise with our credit bureau which is an independent credit bureau. >>> What nature of investment are you expecting them to have in CR registry? <<< Frankly, it is not critically important that banks invest in CreditRegistry although we did send investment invitation to banks and other institutional and private investors. In developed economies credit bureaus are independent of banks to avoid conflict of interest issues. Another reason why CreditRegistry in particular does not want banks to dominate its equity shareholding is because it is NOT in the best interest of private investors like you; if banks dominate they may attempt to control/reduce the pricing of our products because they are initially the largest consumers of our products and services - this means that CreditRegistry may be unable to optimize revenue/profits/dividends. Also, banks and creditors are particularly interested in obtaining information that would assist them in making informed credit granting decisions regarding prospective borrowers; therefore they will utilize our services whether or not they invest as long our credit reports and credit scores effectively assist them in achieving their risk management objectives. There are banks that will subscribe to our services but may not subscribe to the CRC, and possibly vice versa. Therefore, to obtain universal data coverage, virtually all banks may have to utilize both credit bureaus as happens in other markets where there are more than once credit bureau. One key CreditRegistry advantage is that we are currently the only credit bureau in the world with a tested and proven consumer identification platform based on fingerprint and facial recognition. With Nigeria lacking any reliable or robust national ID system virtually all banks will need to use our services in the foreseeable future. Our head start in this area is a critical advantage and we are definitely passionate and committed to innovating beyond the traditional ways of doing things. It is my hope that the preceding have addressed your questions and concerns. If not, it would be my pleasure to expound on areas that you need clarification on. Best regards! Taiwo Ayedun | Chief Executive Officer | CreditRegistry Corporation | +1 (425) 269-5005 Nigeria: +234 (1) 818-4775 (Office) | +234 (1) 776-9587 (Direct) | +234 (803) 330-1552 (Mobile) Web: http://www.creditregistry.com | Email: taiwoa@creditregistry.com |
easimoni:Yes, May and Baker had a 108% increase in PAT but what you did not take into consideration was that they missed their profit and dividend forecast as contained in the PO prospectus. Profit was to be in the N400m range. Dividend was to be 35k Would advice that you allow the share to bottom out then buy. The prospect looks good for as long as NAFDAC is still in operation. Hopefully by 2008, the benefit of the investment in the Bio Vaccine factory should become evident. easimoni:Price rose because of the dividend 150k and 1 for 6 bonus. Ashaka has a lot of cash in its reserves so is able to make dividend paymen t even if it makes a loss. My major concern is lack of any expansion plan. There was talk of a 20% expansion plan. For a while ASHAKA has not being growing its sales. Turnover was only increasing slightly due to price increases. Actually, volumes was on the decline. WAPCO holds the best value out of all the cement companies. However, with no bonus in sight, I do not expect such huge capital gain. Moreover, WAPCO does not seem to qualify as a stock that the PFA's can invest in. |
joshO:It is a competitor. The competitor is being promoted by UBA with Accenture as the consultant. It is not TRUE that the other banks are promoters. They will likely just sign on with them. Moreover, they will not be on teh ground till next year according to my sources. I still believe that CR should have the headstart. It however depend on how efficient they are. I hope the management is savvy enough. |
dollyp1cute:FSDH has strong links with UBA |
easimoni:Many reasons. Firstly people are booking profit. Astute investors always try to lock in profits. Secondly some are selling to fund the First Bank IPO. This week is the closing date. Well, thsi should be temporary because the Pension Fund money should be hitting the market soon thus driving the price further up. Relatively, most stocks are over priced so there will definitely be a correction. How soon this will be depends on alternative invvestment options that are available. |
easimoni:While it is true that you can get insider news, the analysis like most technical analysis that the man does are based on hindsight. Why didn't he say before now that Ashaka will drop? Based on his analysis, what is the conclusion? He is saying that we will have to wait to know whether the price will drop further!!!!! |
Well how do you evaluate a company with little history. You are only buying potential. Preference shares for that matter with little exit plan. Based on projections, yes they have a good business plan. They have promising projections. If targets are met then they are seriously undervalued. However, there are other issues to consider. Firstly it will affect my liquidity. Will be tying down a lot of money if things don't go well. Secondly the promoters have little to lose. Most got their shareholding in kind!!!!! So, if things don't go well, they just move on. Thirdly there is no track record. Not sure the promoters have run any business in Nigeria before. How prepared are they for the Nigerioan environment. That siad, for high risk investors who are ready to forego capital appreciation then it is worth considering. |
If you can, BUY. It is selling at a discount! |
frankiriri:No ill feelings. We can always agree to disagree. Hope you will attend the EGM? On First Bank IPO, if you are not an agressive investor go for First Bank IPO. The returns will be moderate. For agressive investors, looking for capital excellent appreciation, you may have to allow it to pass. |
frankiriri:Maybe you need to go back and read the thread all over again. I started talking about Oando's plans before posting the link you alluded to. The link was just to show that the information is now in the open. Yes Oando will call an EGM. I await how many shareholders will get the notice before the EGM. Sorry, I don't have any beef with the Oando guys. I just put things in perspective. If you wnat to read more about Ocean and Oil, go to their website. If you want to know about the dealings of Oando, well find out about Gaslink and how the promoter was shoved aside. Find out why one of them left for the petrochemical plant. As per your being an accountant, congratulation. For your info, I was already in Pricewaterhouse as far back as 1994. That was 13 years ago!!!!! I was doing audit and business advisory services! If you don't know that it is Ocean and Oil shares that would be exchanged then you need to go and look at the shareholding of the OandO subsidiaries! |
frankiriri:If you know how companies are started, you will not say what you are saying. What does it cost to incorporate a company? Those companies were incorporated with OandO and Ocean and Oil as shareholders (except gaslink). Go and read more about Ocean and Oil and its subsidiaries and how they are milking OandO dry!!!!!!!!! If you know how mergers and acqusitions work and how you consolidate your holdings then you will know what OandO is up to. Right now, Oando has less then 600m oustanding shares. Check how many they are about giving to Ocean and Oil now in exchange for Ocean and Oil holdings in the subsidiaries? Ask for how Ocean and Oil became share holders in such subsidiaries. Ask for why the former Head of strategy at OandO left. Go and find out how Lenux oil became core investor in Eternal oil. Read the prospectus and see how Lenux will be taking their rights without paying a dime!!!!! Sorry, I don't agin anything by misinforming people. If you are not clear, kindly ask! |
allboyz:You have account with who? Oceanic bank is in principle not responsible for paying you the dividend. Once declared, it is the duty of the registrar. First Bank is their registrar so that is there duty. Whatever the problem, see the registrar. They will be able to tell you if they've sent the waarant. If you've filled a form requesting for the dividend to be paid directly into your account, they will also let you know whether they've done that. |
allboyz:First Registrars is theie registrar if it hs not changed. Go there (by 8.00am if possible) and you will be given a dividend warrant. This is like a cheque that you need to pay into your bank account. |
toyibanj:My e-mail address is ade_aoa@yahoo.com Please, I ahve not said that you should not buy OandO. I have only highlighted the risk associated with that decision. Put this way, OandO is one of teh best petroleum marketing companies out there. However, looking at the market and the economy as a whole, the petroleum marketing companies is not the best place to invest. |



