Wanaj0's Posts
Nairaland Forum › Wanaj0's Profile › Wanaj0's Posts
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yodiyokun:If you are in for the long term, timing makes little difference in that your screening criteria will determine whether to BUY or not. For me, I don't try to time the market. For example, can you tell me the lowest and highest that First Bank, Zenith, Oceanic etc will be for teh remainder of the year? On Insurance, the sector will do well in that there are opportunities. However, the regulatory environment need to be improved upon to make the sector what it ought to be. Local content policy of NNPC should favour them provided the policy will be enforced. Group liife policy will also benefit them. Note however that because of the rules, the dividend payout of insurance companies is small. This is because of the reserve requirement. Don't forget that they are covering risk and if the risk should materialise, claims may actually wipe off their capital base. So while the opportunity is there, the risk is also enormous. Part of the problem of insurance companies in Nigeria is image. This is a consequence of their lateness and reluctance to settle claims. Banking is still good but marrgins will start to drop and with the bloated oustanding shares the PE's will likely hit the roof tops. WAPCo is solid but don't expect a fatanstic declaration. They are still paying of debt and will need further investment to remain relevant. They may become a marginal player if they don't do something fast. On sectoral performance, it is more like a yearly thing. 2003/2004 was for the oil marketing companies because of the deregulation policy that period. 2004/2005 was for the cement companies because of the ban on importation policy that came out. 2005/2006 was for the banks because of the consolidation policy. 2006/2007 is for the insurance companies because of the consolidation policy. So which sector will the main one in 2007/2008. I tend to tip the manufacturing(including health care). They will benefit from lower interest rate, improvement in energy supply and going forward improvement in infrastructure thus reducing their operational expenses (distribution cost) |
shigidi:Tell me how successful you are in timing the market? Even the professionals cannot do that!!! Banks will likely constitute 50% of your portfolio. It does mine anyway. That does not contradict the fact that based on current valuation, most banks are either fairly valued or overvalued so why buy them now. Will rather put a HOLD on most ?? |
yodiyokun:Don't know how you arrive at the conclusion that Flour Mills will not repeat that feat soon!!!!! The issue, is the fundamentals is strong, they are growing profit, they have few outstanding shares so a bonus issue is easy for them. On crusader and other insurance companies, until I know the outstanding shares, it is a no go area for me. I salute those who are attracted to them. Maybe it has to do with the fact that I bought UNIC at 1.10 last year, NEM was 0.55 and Crusader was less than 2.00. Need to know what has changed apart from teh 'herd' mentality. Any improvement in EPS (outstanding shares will show that) Well you can compare all companies based on returns that they are likely to give. That's the basis of the Japaul and Dangote comparison |
Temmie10:Yes you are right, everything has to do with your personality. That's why I hardly go round making stock recommedations without having an inkling on the type of person. Moreover, I am more of an investor than a trader. I also don't try to time the market. I don't mind if a stock returns 1000%. My risk profile will not allow me to buy if it does not pass through my screening criteria. Now wonder why IBTC do not have some stocks on their selected list? It has to do with risk. Based on the amount of money they are investing, some risks are not worth taking. As you grow your portfolio, you will start to understand that preservation of capital is the first rule of investing. When I talk about calculated risks, I mean I have enough information at my fingertips to make a decision. Don't know how long you've being investing on the NSE. Note however that 2006/2007 is not the norm You need to understand what is responsible for the shift in market dynamics. Never said that NGC and Flour Mills will return the highest capital appreciation. If you know the stocks that will do that, kindly let me know!!!!!!! However, I am comfortable holding companies with steady growth. Later the market will recognise their potential. I always try to have the annual reports of companies that I invest in. I need to know what they are doing, where the profit is coming from and try to see the warning signals. I buy for the long term until there is a shift in fundamentals. I don't try to time the market. |
yodiyokun:I am not risk averse. However, I take calculated RISKS. Not risks that are not worth the effort. Not buying blindly based on sentiments. I am not a gambler. Don't have info on Crusader. But just for arguement, how will you know whether Crusader got a fair deal in the merger? What is the pedigree of the companies that they acquired/merged with? What was the state of their books? I can go on and on. Crusader raised funds and also went ahead to acquire some insurance companies. Right now, information is scanty on the insurance companies. What they are not revealing may be more than what they are revealing. Info on Lassaco also is scanty. WEMA is risky but I took the risk a long time ago!!!!! Bought in January, locked in some profit and will ride the tide. What do you mean by rate of return being moderate barely three years ago Flour Mills was 12.50!!! They gave a bonus 1 for 3 last year. Check out 7-UP some years ago. Maybe I need to check your definition of moderate.Not that much info on Cadury in the public domain. I however heard that they are doing a restructuring. Fresh people employed into teh top positions. Things will likely start to move up. I will however like to see the YE 2006 result to know how bad the situation actually is. NBC is also turning the corner so should do well. Fact is the bullish run has made people to expect 'unrealistic' returns. Of course this is not sustainable. The bearish market is making people to know that. FYI, the banks were not the ones with the highest returns until the consolidation. With the HUGE oustanding shares, itr will be a big challenge for them to sustain the earnings. The Beverages use to be the leader until the GSM came. Most have restrategised now so expect BIG from them going forward. They are now getting connected to gas thus reducing their operating cost. JaPaul is not looking as good as Dangote Flour!!!! |
easimoni:I love your guts. Until how much shares is Crusader issuing for the insurance companies they acquire? Any info? |
yodiyokun:You forgot that there is another option, keep your money for now. WEMA is very risk so you must have a big heart to go for it. Flour Mills is looking good. NBC (not check today's price) is also not bad for the long term. Just experiencing a turn around. Nigerian German still looking attractive. For now, I am staying clear of insurance stocks. There are many behind the scenes going on. For me, the risk is just too much. When all info becomes available (oustanding shares especially), then I can join the train. I see the food and beverages sector doing well next year. |
Temmie10:NAHCO is over valued!!!!! Don't see how they will be able to satisfy shareholders. The only attraction is the small quantity of outstanding shares. This will surely drive the price up with people looking forward to a repeat of the N5.00 to N70.00 capital appreciation of even the 3 for 2 bonus. For me, one should take a break from the banks now. Apart from Oceanic, very few of them really looks attarctive. |
frankiriri:Good advice. Hopefully his cashflow can accommodate that. Also, he need to pick good and liquid stock or else he will get his fingers burnt. |
shigidi:Don't know what the price will be like in January 2008. I am not a trader so I tend to take a long term outlook of any stock. On Nigerian German, it was about 4.00 in June 2006. It has a consistent dividend payment history. The business is growing and they are diversifying. Even though they are listed under Chemicals and paints, they are more of an healthcare/consumer goods company. They are now oil field services. That is a goldmine especially once the crisis in the Niger Delta subside. Now, they've not given a bonus for almost 5 years so I guess time is right for one now. Also, they've not raised moeny from the capital market though there is plan to raise money via bond issue before the end of the year. Bought some just last month at 12.85. For me, the EPS is good. The board is stable. Shonekan has the majority share in th company. It is not liquid because the float is small. I mean except Shonekan decides to sell his own shares, the number of shareholders are small and the units available is also limited. Good thing also is that in a bearish market, NGC will hardly be affected. So it is a stable growth stock for me. The downside is that NGC is also being used to prop up UNIC. NGC owns substantial shares in UNIC. Shonekan (Volker Securities) also own susbtantial shares in UNIC. I am not so comfortable with such arrangement. However, Shonekan like Onosode seems to abide with good corporate governance principles. |
V.C.2007:HOLD is good when it is based on sound reasoning. Why should anyone be holding to the petroleum marketing stock? For how long are you going to hold? Oando did a PO/Rights in 2004 and the price has being dropping since then. It will make sense holding if there is potential for growth in the sector. Watch the interim result and you will see declinig returns. Margins are shrinking. Failure to deregulate is affcting them. The higher the crude oil price, teh lower the margins for them under the current scenario. With crude oil now in the $80/bbl range things are not looking good for them. For me, Total, Oando, Conoil etc should be avoided like a plague. For me, I SELL once there is a shift in the underlying assumptions. Or else, you will continue to HOLD till you have a worthless stock. Some people are still HOLDing on to Onwuka Inter Biz, Savanna etc. Unfortunately, most people BUY based on the herd mentality so will also have to SELL based on the same mentality. Many few people actually know what they are doing neither are they willing to learn. They all are interested in making money. Like someone said, when every Tom, Dick and Harry is buying a stock, that is the time to sell!!!! Can't understand why some people bought Lassaco, Mutual Benefits and co at the prices that they were bought. For those ALWASY listening to brokers, note that gain or loss, your broker will still benefit. It is your money hence get the required education. Don't allow any broker to make you lose your money. At least, the current bearish market is providing a reality check on people. The stock market is not a gamblers den. Sorry, people are learning this the hard way. On a lighter note, don't lose faith. |
shigidi:Wema too me has more upside than Diamond. Wema has a lot of potential waiting to be tapped if they can get their strategy and direction right. Loyal customers etc. At least I see Wema going to 15.00 (almost 50%) while it will be hard for Diamond to hit 27.00 (50%) based on current earnings. |
tonmax:If you can and willing to take risk then WEMA has a lot of potential. It is however meant for the risk takers. If things go as xpected, there is a lot of upside. However, things can move in the opposite direction. So be sure that it fits into your risk profile. |
samstone4:No!!! Transcorp did not gain maximum today. It gained 4 kobo. It is a sign that it is about to bottom out and stabilise. From there, it will start to move up if there are juicy news released into the market. |
Tmoni:Answer now!!!!! Speculative purposes I guess!!! Turn the question around and ask your Broker why not?? ![]() WEMA is so risky but if the permutations are right, you may be on to a goldmine. With all due respect, some brokers (account officers) are just clueless!!!!!! I know I broker that I prepare BUY list to send to her clients!!!! |
shigidi:Afribank Registrar has moved to Gbagada. |
yodiyokun:My understanding was that the disruption of gas supply around April/May increased the expenses. That means that they had to revert back to the use of diesel which is more expensive. Flour Mills is still my favourite. Waiting for the price to drop more so that I can buy. BAGCO is the major money spinner for them. |
forexgiude:NEM, Vigilant and Acen had a merger agreement. At the end of the day only NEM and Vigilant went together. My sources is teh new NEM. They are integrating Vigilante into their operations. As at now, no association with ACEN. Just like the bank mergers, not all the proposals sailed through! |
akininNC:For which year? That cannot be true!!!!!!!!! Cehck your facts very well!!! |
shigidi:Well, depending on your definition of low PE. BOC was facing serious competition hence decline in profitability. However, they're consistent in paying dividends/bonus. From the interim result, they seem to be doing far better this current financial year. The year end is September and the result should be out next year January/February. ON UPL, good stock. Not liquid. Flunctuating results depending on government intervention in education. They got huge contract from ETF at a point. Steady growth is expected. The rights issue may have distorted the EPS and PE a bit. Fundamentally sound company though. |
I hope people just know how useless most of the offers are. Even with the ambitious profit forecast, can't see the attraction. Most are getting carried away that any offer/placement will always turnout good. It was not like that before in Nigeria and it will not continue to be like that. Before, after an offer, prices actually come down because of the increase in outstanding share. The margin facility being granted by banks is distorting the market. The pension funds with the dearth of where to invest is also distorting the market. The reality is that SOON things will shape up. All those buying 'useless' stocks will surely get their fingers burnt. Then people will know that you don't forever have a BULLISH run!!!!! |
forexgiude:Acen was not part of the merger. Only NEM and Vigilante merged. Though the (new) NEM quarterly result was impressive. I will be wary until all figures as per success of the rights issue, share exchange for Vigilante is out. For now, the information available on insurance companies are so scanty and unreliable that it is difficult to make reasonable deductions. |
RoughCut:There is an error in the 2007 PE figure contained in the propsectus. The EPS for 2007 was was right but the PE was wrong. Material error if you ask me. |
bibiking1:Are you sure that Accen met the consolidation criteria? I know that their merger with NEM collapsed!!!! |
frankiriri:That was definetly an error!!!! The offer is not attractive at least in the short term. It is clearly over valued. The only attraction is that the shares on offer are quite small (120m units). That means the scarcity of the shares will persist. Dangote flour looks more attractive. Let's wait for Japual's prospectus to pick the best out of the lot!!!! With this new propsectus, Access Bank is looking like a bargain. With everyone coming to the market now, it is pretty obvious that the market is over valued hence the rush by everyone to partake. A correction is definitely in sight. At the very least, expect a modest rise in index for 2008! |
Temmie10:Ask yopurself who are those selling Transcorp now? Did they make a loss? Remember, some people bought the private placement at N1.00. Others at N6.00. They've benefitted from a stock split. Those are the ones selling at huge profit. For those that bought the IPO, that was a rip off!!!!!!!! They cannot sell now. They will have to hold on. That said, Transcorp has a lot of value. They've faced a lot of challenges. For me, I think the worst is over for them. If it dare drop to 3.00, I will swoop on it!!!! |
nossycheek:You need to see the prospectus so as to make a good judgement. Most Flour Mills have subsidiaries. Dangote flour mills will have the sack (bag) company and the pasta company as part of the subsidiaries. Cour flour milling is faced with serious competition hence reduced margins. This is not peculiar with Dangote alone. Also, growth in Dangote flour mills in terms of turnover and profit seems to have slowed down. There is however news of expansion. Whatever happens, the quantity available (500m units) to small investors is damn too small that I will really not bother my head about it. |
nossycheek:For all intent and purposes, the address with the registrars is what is important. Write to the registrars requesting for a change of address from the old address to the new one. If you know your account number with the registrar it may help. As per changing from a 'joint' account to an 'individual' account, it is not that easy! I suggest you maintain it as it is. |
easimoni:WAPCO did a right at less than 10.00 about 2 years ago and went as high as 80.00. Only NAHCO and to some extent BCC has had such crazy returns within that time frame. As per those that bought when it was high, too bad. Fundamentals still support WAPCO doing well going forward. Price drop was due to the poor dividend policy. Well, they wanted to pay off some debt. As usual, the shareholders expected a bonus which the company did not give hence the company was punished for it. They do have problems with energy (not necessarily power) due to the gas supply disruptions. This affected turnover. The upside for WAPCO is that the plants were just refurbished, they have restructured their debts, they are on a cheap source of energy (gas) and they have a good management. They are the only company in the sector that is not witnessing a drop in profit. The PE also look attractive. I will wait till November to buy anyway. |
nossycheek:On your first question, it depend on your personality and your investment objective. Yet to see the full details of the Dangote flour PO. Got something from BGL but I am not so impressed. 15.00 looks expensive based on what I saw but will wait for the FULL prospectus. However, the hype will help the offer. Also only 40% of the 1.25bn shares is available for the masses. 60% will be preferentially alloted. I expect an oversubcription. Don't buy more than 30,000 units if you don't want your money returned. You should also be willing to wait for certificate and verification wahala. I am not a trader so I tend to take long term positions. Nigerian German is good for me. Flour Mills is solid. WAPCO is also attractive. WEMA is risky but if expectations are met you will get a good return. NBC is also looking attractive. Same for Longman. To maximise your profit, avoid overdiversification. That is the bane of many people. As per changing your address in CSCS, I never really bothered. CSCS does not send an info to the mailing address to start with. It is your address with the registrars that is most important. For your name, you will need an affidavit and necessary document. Your broker should be able to do this for you, |
Temmie10:Check where WAPCo was some 24 months ago and you will appreciate how much it has moved. Yes it rose to 80.00 level this year because of bonus expectation. Now it is fairly valued. Compared with its peers it is relatively cheap. |
stanchuks:You bought just last month so nothing to worry about!!!!! 12.20 is a bit expensive for May and Baker. To reap teh benefits, expect to be in for about 2 years. By then, they will be making profit from the Bio Vaccine plant. If you are a short term player, you better exit. But if you are really an investor, then May and Baker is a good stock to hold! |
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