Wanaj0's Posts
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easimoni:We no go sell NGC give you now! You no join the train early enough. Short term, leave NGC alone! It is not a liquid stock so only gets to move based on fundamentals! |
Temmie10:Definitely no 1000% with NAHCO. I however still see the stock doing well. If not for anything, the hype and the scarcity of teh shares. Add that to the monopolistic environment. The quantity of shares being offered is damn too small. They should be able to move the price up to 30.00 quickly. Will just pick up my rights. The offer for sale at 5.50 was over subscribed. I expect that the PO will also be over subscribed. |
If you have Wema bank, don't sell it. Hold on and see what will happen. Bought in January at 3.15 and will hold on till next year. Chellarams is a must BUY but not very liquid so not readily available. Was to do a PO last year or so don't know why they are delaying. Have some small units there and benefitted from the last 1 for 1. One of those stocks that can silently make you come out BIG. Nigerian German, nothing to say!!!! I've mentioned them since. Note that the result you see is probably yet to factor in the new money spinner (the oil services company). Seriously, it will be a crime for NGC not to declare a bonus. No bonus for over 5 years and they are doing well. Conservatively, the stock should reach 25.00 - 30.00. Not a very liquid stock also. Shonekan is the major shareholder there (Volker Securities). NGC also owns shares in UNIC insurance. Bought at 4.00 last year. Sold some at 6.00 and had to buy again at 12.85!!!! So please hold on till next year June! That's one of the few undervalued stock out there. Beta glass should also do well though the price has also inched up a bit! |
Oceanic Bonus already credited into your CSCS account so go and check |
alliednetw:Once you buy above 30,000 units for Dangote Flour, expect part of your money to be returned. The hype will make it over subscribed. They are also going for preferential allottment |
Temmie10:Crusader listed shares from the public offer. However, once the merger is completed, they will have to issue new shares to the owners of the merging partners thus increasing the number of outstanding shares. That's why calculations of PE and EPS are so difficult when you don't have the FULL information. |
aksance:Dunlop should turn corner next year. However, if the rail system is fixed, it will potentially affect the revenue. Dunlop at 3.00 is a good stock. |
Temmie10:My brother, wishing you all the best!!!! Hope you have the audited statement of Crusader. Banks are better regulated than the insurance companies. Just take a look at teh consolidation exercise. Don't get me wrong, the insurance sector is sitting on a gold mine. However, until all teh facts and figures are out as per the consolidation exercise, you need to thread cautiously. You also need to get the timing right. I am not advocating for or against any of the insurance companies. I know the opportunity that abounds there. But expect surprises when the full result of teh consolidation exercise is out. You need to see how some are 'selling' their Life or non life businesses. You need to see the business combinations going on. So it is difficult to trust and use any of the figures being bandied around to make an informed decision. Maybe I am a bit wayry because of the ridiculously low price that I bought them then which was even considered expensive by my reckoning! |
easimoni:Many things are responsible. For some with subsidiaries, contribution of subsidiaries are not factored in until the full year statement. They don't present consolidated/group account until full year. Sometimes it also has to do with the type of business. Some are seasonal hence tend to have more income during a particular period/quarter. It may also be due to exceptional items that materialises at different times of the year. Again it may be due to reclassification of some transactions based on the final audit. While interim result provides a guide especially when compared with historical figures, full year result is the one that tells the story. More than that is the FACT/STORIES behind the figures. While we can throw figures around, you need to know the stories behind the figures to make informed analysis. Imagine a company that made huge profit by SELLING its core assets!!! You will see a low PE, good EPS, maybe lovely dividend yield but for all you know, the company may not be in existence tomorrow! |
Temmie10:There are many behind the scenes moves going on with insurance companies. Most have merged and are still planning mergers and acquistions. They only rode the tide of the bullish run on the NSE. Historical PE's of insurance companies is about 7.00. The dividend payout is so small. A large percentage of their profit is put in reserves so don't use the banking sector to evaluate them. They also cover risks. Thread with caution with insurance stocks. Most analysis are being done with half information. Some comparisons are just funny. PAT comparison pre merger with post merger is not apples for apples comparison. Some also have a debt/equity swap agreement. Get the full audited statement before you committ! |
Nothing to worry about FBN. Just be patient. Stockmarket is for LONG TERM investment. Speculators are those that easily get slaughtered. If you are an investor just relax. What you are having is correction that is providing good buying opportunities. No problem with offers once you can deploy the money raised to generate profit. FBN is well positioned to do that! |
aksance:Thanks. Have they established subsidiaries? Have they divested in any of them? What's the shareholding structure like? But I am not believing all the stories until the exercise is over. There are so many behind the scenes moves going on. |
Temmie10:For me the best Insuarnce company is a HOLD until all the issues surrounding the consolidation exercise is sorted out! You have a lot of magomago going on with the insurance companies. I will watch from afar. At least, I can see better prospects so no wahala. Those that bought the PO's are the one enjoying. UNIC PO was at 1.10. Crusader was at about 1.95 or so. NEM was at 56k. |
Mongue:At what price did you buy? The PO was done at 1.10 last year and certificates already out thus leading to some drop. I also think they 'farmed' out their non life business to another company. Untill you have FULL ANNUAL statements, HOLD is the best for the insurance companies. |
Temmie10:Current EPS is N4.76. I forecast an EPS of N6.50 for them. On insurance, do you know whether MB acquired any insurance companies. Get the FULL AUDITED financial statement and read all the notes to the accounts before making judgement on any of teh insuarnce companies. Most for now are just good for speculative purposes. |
Temmie10:Flour Mills is a company in the wrong group. It should actually be in conglomerates. It is well diversified with good income streams. One of the few companies that has changed over to gas fully now. Involved in sectors where there is significant growth. Just finished some capital investment so be expecting increased earnings. Good EPS forecast. Stable management. I will be expecting a bonus next year to bring the price down a bit. |
koksieboy:What's your definition of SHORT and LONG Term? What is also your risk tolerance? |
easimoni:You got it wrong on OandO. For the short term a no no. For the Long term, they will come out good. Current policy is not favourable to them. With Yaradua coming from the socialist/marxist spectrum, I will be wary of the petroleum industry. The margins are tight, competition high and the sector fully regulated. Banks will continue to grow. They are the one propelling the economy. In NIgeria, banking stocks will likely form nothing less then 50% of your portfolio. Which other sectors are available? I will be wary of insurance stocks. Not enough info to evaluate them. Most of them have merged/acquired other insurance companies. The effect of that is yet to be factored into the outstanding shares of the companies. For now, Flour Mills, Nigerian German and WAPCo are really looking attractive for the long term. Beta Glass and ETI are also worth considering. Flour Mills is however the best. Imagine that even with only 90k dividend declaration the share is still holding its own at about 75.00? Personally, I like going for stocks that are yet to be hyped and leave once hyping starts. So all the stocks being hyped to the high heavens are not for me! |
On Japaul, people need to wait for the prospectus to make an informed decision. Yes the government incentives is there but note also that they operate mainly in the Niger Delta and the crisis there will not help the business. Yes they have contracts with Shell (not that big) but note also that Shell is reducing its activities and business. Funding problem is making them to scale down. I can see that a lot of people are buying names of companies. Soon people will learn. On why there are many offers, part of investing 101 is to know that when the market is over valued, there will be a rash of offers!!!! |
Aporo:It was an oversight!!!! CAMA was to regulate all industries while BOFIA was specifically for banks. Hence it was difficult to see the potential conflict. Moreover, knowing how long it takes to get bills through the National Assembly, trying that then would have killed the consolidation programme. Note that the National Assembly was not favourably disposed to the consolidation programme. That said, the banks proposed a middle of the road ground which was acceptable to CBN and other stakeholders. Hopefully, going forward as a nation, we will learn to follow procedures and pay attention to details |
Aporo:Sorry if I misunderstood you!!!! The nalyst report made an issue of the MD/DMD being members of the audit committee. Yes willful contravention of laws should be condemned. However, some laws are outdated because they do not take into consideration current realities. CAMA and BOFIA did not envisage the current consolidation. Do you think that shareholders will support mergers if they know that they will not receive dividend for 5 years? Do you think the weak banks will have any bank to acquire them if CBN did not provide a way out? Man is not made for the law, the law is made for man! Aterdo Peterside pointed out this kind of conflicts as part of the reasons why he was not in support of the schedule of the consolidation exercise! He expects ammendment of the laws to take care of issues like this. CBN regulates the banks and seems to be pleased with the treatment of the goodwill. The courts also sanctioned it! For teh other contraventions, banks were duly penalised as contained in the rule book. |
Aporo:So who should be in the board audit committee? Non board members ?? The board audit committee is chaired by a non executive director with the MDand DMD as members. Do you want a committee conisting of non executive directors only?well, CBN that regulates the bank is in support of the goodwill treatment. Was not at the court but it was clearkly stated that they got a federal high court order on 27 September 2006 to create a special reserve account from its share premium account for the purpose of writting of the goodwill on the Company's balance sheet as at 31st March 2006! Now other banks like IBTC did the same thing why single out Access? Now there was only one contravention for which the bank was duely penalised with a fine of N3m. Offence was failure to obtain CBN's approval for investment!!!!! |
Aylala2002, well guess reality is dawning in people that the market is mainly for the long term. All the short term gains are not sustainable. Yes you are having corrections with many still to come. However, fundamentally sound stocks will still hold their own. If there is any stock out there with good future in term of FUNDAMENTALS, flour mills will be my top pick. On private placement, be very careful. Firstly, there is hardly any end date! Globe Re did a private placment that was to close Sept 2006. As at August 2007, the document are still being hawked around. Same thing happened when Platinum did the private placement. One year after, they were still collecting money. Same thing happened to IGI and Transcorp. For private placement you must be ready to be locked in for a minimum of 3years!!!! Those that did IGI private placment are yet to get certificates. Even for Oasis and co that are listed, you need to ask who are those selling? People yet to receive certificates? After receiving certificates, you still need to get it verified and lodged in CSCS. Well, expect the registrar to delay that. So for Continetal Re, Oasis etc, what you are seeing are 'potential profits'. Hardly will you see anyone that bought those private placements who has received its certificates. For insurance companies, you need to be aware of the risk that some of them may not meet up with the recapitalisation programme. Remember that some people bought private placment of Assurance Bank. What of those that bought PO's of Trade Bank and All States Trust Bank? People need to FULLY understand the risk associated with their investment decisions. Many people are just gambling and they will surely get their fingers burnt. Definitely, you will not get the kind of returns you get in the first half of the year in the second half. Water definitely will find its level. The market will still come alive with more Pension Fund. Once the CBN releases the insurance funds then expect a flurry of activity. This is the time to start to take positions in fundamentally sound stock with track record of good performance. For those buying stocks just because they gain 5% everyday without any fundamentals, it is in this bearish market that you know that investment is not a gamble! Try selling wire and cable and see the response of your broker! |
crazyT:Very little info about Capital oil but market sentiments favour them. Being looking for the stock since only God knows when but not available. Same with Transnationwide Express. You fit sell some give me?? (LOL) |
danalyst:Please the same thing that Access did with Goodwill was also done by IBTC as per its merger with Chartered Bank. It is included in the tender offer document!!!!!!! All this was done by the approval of CBN. Yes they contravene CAMA rules which CBN felt was appropriate because CAMA did not envisage the problem that arose from consolidation. They also got a Federal High Court sanction to go ahead with the treatment. KPMG was just not satisfied with the treatment! They still went on to say that the report was a TRUE and FAIR reflection of the affairs of Acces Bank. Note that the major reason why Access Bank went this route was because they wanted to pay dividend! The shareholders are not willing to wait for 5 years before getting dividend. Soludo had to give approval or else it will be a disincentive for mergers On the audit committe they do have the corporate audit committee as required by law with a Non executive director as chairman and some shareholders as members. The MD/DMD are not members of that committee. The company howecer also have a board audit committee made up of board members. That is an internal arrangement of Access Bank so nothing strange here. Many times banks contravenes BOFIA for various reasons! SOmetimes they do it intentionally so will not say that it is always due to control lapses. Each has to be looked at on its own merit. GTB, which purportedly is one of the best in corporate governance do pay fines for non compliance with BOFIA! While not a fan of Access Bank, the analyst goofed in that his report. Presenting lies as fact! |
danalyst:Please go and read the audited report of Access bank again. The financial statement was qualified. The reason was stated in the report. Access bank followed due process. Had a board meeting, called an AGM, got the Federal high court sanction. Even had a CBN letter asking banks that wanted to treat their goodwill in that way so as to pay dividend. Basic problem was that it contravenes the Companies and Allied Matters Act which never envisaged that kind of problem. All most all teh banks that merged and wanted to pay dividend were faced with this problem hence CBN's decision to allow them to 'contravene' the act. This was clearly stated in the audited financial statement. As an auditor, you should now that qualification of an account does not mean that the books were cooked!!! It only means that the auditors are not confident in expressing an opinion on that part of the account. Basically, PWC does not agree that they should contravene the Companies and Allied Matters Act. Access management however felt otherwise which was why they were not bothered by its inclusion in the account and it was not an issue at the AGM with teh shareholders present! On audit committee, please go over the financial statement again! Access Board has an audit committee among other committees to which the MD and DMD are members as part of the board! No shareholder is in this committee. The audit committee adressed by CAMA has a non executive director as chairman with other shareholders. The MD and DMD are not members of that committee. Don't understand why people must LIE just to pass a view across. The Stock market may not be efficient but that is not the making of Access Bank. The poor analyst was sacked for incompetence and negligence of duty! He made so many factual errors for which Access can sue FCMB/CSL!!!!!! How dare you accuse an organisation of cooking its books just because the account was qualified! That is an indictment on PWC that went ahead to express an opinion on the statement. While I don't personally like Access Bank, it is obvious that the said analyst is either incompetent or negligent based on his report. For you auditor, it will be nice if you read the audited statement of Access bank before passing comments. Your treatise is based on assumptions! |
yodiyokun:Don't understand what you are talking about. The board has its own audit committee as part of its operation. That is the duty of the board of directors. The Bank staturilly also has an audit committee chaired by a non executive director with shareholders as members! |
Dis Guy:There are reports that classify stocks as SELL or HOLD! But note that so many reasons are responsible for that. In the report being discussed, there are factual errors!!!! The issue of audit committe is just one. What he said was false! Accusing them of cooking books is not something you say without having solid evidence. KPMG the external auditors expressed an opinion. They qualified the report based on the treatment of goodwill. However, CBN asked banks to treat goodwill like that as againts the Companies and Allied Matters Act. Most banks that paid dividend after merger did that! I don't like Access but I also do not need someone to lie against them! |
easimoni:The MD and DMD are in the boards audit committee not the shareholders committee. The shareholders audit committee has two non executive directors as members. While Access Bank may be a bad buy, the analysts report did a poor job. |
Atam-Man:I think it is a PP |
Issue still under processing by SEC. Sterling Capital Markets will be the issuing house. Price is N1.50 and there will be 814m shares to be sold! Hope that helps. |
easimoni:Until I see the FULL audited financial statement of the insurance companies I will place an hold on them. Do you know the companies that they acquire and what the scheme of merger looks like? No gambling for me. |
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I'll have more money for long term next month as already have N1m on my long term pot through IPOs 
?? The board audit committee is chaired by a non executive director with the MDand DMD as members. Do you want a committee conisting of non executive directors only?
in a land where people don't like being questioned/criticised