₦airaland Forum

In order to realize the magnitude of the counter insurgency operation in terms of area, I decided to compare the land mass of some local governments in Borno state with that of some state.
Figures in km²
Lagos state - 3,577



Marte LGA - 3,280
Mobbar LGA - 3,280
Biu - 3,423
Abadam- 4,172
Magumeri - 5,057
Kukawa - 5,124
Bama - 5,158
Konduga - 6,065
Damboa - 6,426

There are several other local governments in Borno state with landmass greater than 2000km²
Imagine the immense size of the campaign map!

Note: All figures were gotten from Wikipedia, if you have a trusted data, you can bring it here and we can compare.

BabaOwen:
When will Defence headquarter start releasing pictures of dead boko haram members on the run in Marte

By now, you should know that the army rarely shows pictures of dead enemies officially, majority of the pictures we see are from sources that cannot be directly linked to Army HQ

The speed at which the media carried the news of the capturing of the town was astonishing, yet several hours after the defeat of the insurgents, most of these media groups are yet to update their subscribers. This is very embarrassing and the truth is that the reason Nigeria has lost the PR war to the insurgents is largely political. It is very imbecilic to gloat over bad news concerning the country because you don't like the president or the people you supported in the last election lost. To some, the news of deaths of hundreds of people weekly is always welcomed so that they can feel justified that they didn't vote for the current government.
The terrorists attacked at night surprising the garrison, the garrison retreated initially and as soon as air support was available, the soldiers rallied and counterattacked clearing the town of terrorist.
As the military offensive becomes more intense in the Timbuktu triangle and Alargano forest, the terrorists will keep on lunching more attacks elsewhere in order to distract the military from the Timbuktu triangle offensive. The attacks will be more frequent and more daring, they will put a lot of efforts into attacking isolated towns and garrisons elsewhere just to distract and we might even lose some territories but they won't be able to hold it because they will have to keep on attempting to capture more towns for their strategy to work.
Now is the time to put all bases and garrisons at the highest level of alertness, increase fortification and increase air interdiction operations in Northern Borno and the lake Chad region to destroy the logistics bases and supply routes, if possible critical link bridges should be sacrificed just to prevent easy movement of the terrorists. It is sad that majority of the air assets that can carry out interdiction missions are currently out of operation, it is consoling though that they are currently being repaired and serviced. How nice would it have been to allocate assets capable of CAS to strictly providing support for the army offensive while assets capable of air interdiction to reducing the terrorist strength in Lake Chad axis.
To be frank, I highly doubt all territories can be recaptured this year. Maybe next year if the another offensive of this scale is launched by the army when all or most of the expected air assets are available for operations.
The military is currently focused on Alargano and the Timbuktu triangle and if they can establish full control this year, next is the lake Chad axis. This war is far from over but we are definitely on the right course. We only need to rapidly increase the tempo and intensity.

fachfouch:

The Nigerian army fighting ISIS ... pic.twitter.com/B1posdzmTM

— Pieter Van Ostaeyen (@p_vanostaeyen) January 14, 2021

honestly Nigeria have to rebuild and restructure its army this is very bad... this is not how you fight in a war...

The problem is training, it is keeping men for too long on the battle field before rotating them out. Among them are those that have been deployed since 2015, when troops are left for far too long on the war front, they become rusty and less efficient and the sense of professionalism is lost. There are several other units of the military that soldiers dare not be that unprofessional. And then they are also poorly equipped.

cutievik:
People wey dey go soon start to give politicians and wealthy elites as body guards..hehehe..

The amount of policemen providing escort services to people in portharcourt can Secure the entire portharcourt...Listen, our political elites are cursed....

The police force is just an unfortunate agency that has refused to perform the functions it was created for. The people who talk about unprofessionalism in the military are probably blind to the things happening in the NPF.
Not to talk of the large scale institutionalized corruption; after IPPIS was forced on the NPF, and an audit was done, it was revealed that there are over 80,000 ghost workers in the Nigeria Police Force payroll. Imagine some people at the top collecting the salaries of over 80,000 Non-existent police officers. Imagine the effect the additional 80,000 police officers will have on the security situation in many parts of the country without law enforcement where bandits have turned themselves into the law.
Imagine if they stop providing personal protection to "certain people" and deploy the officers in CPU to police the rural areas while leaving those certain people to turn to private security companies for their personal protection.


Now there are reports of improved security in Zamfara, Katsina and kaduna-Abuja expressway because of ongoing military operations, we all know these military operations can't be sustained forever, ordinarily the police and other law enforcement agencies should move in after the military but we all know that it will be back to square one.

If we don't restructure the law enforcement agencies in Nigeria, we will only be moving in circles when it comes to security.

The same thing with counter-insurgency operations, the military objectives should have been one large operation to liberate all territories and chase the insurgents out of the country while the law enforcement agencies move in to police the liberated territories and the military returning to the barracks or helping with border security but NPF and NSCDC have chosen to be unfortunate and the military is forced to deploy men and assets into protecting liberated territories and enforcing law and order. This is the major reason why the war will drag on for many more years to come .
Ordinarily, there shouldn't be any town in Southern borno, Yobe and Adamawa with large military garrisons by now. They should be filled with police officers aided by the CJTF, a small garrison of soldiers and support from the NAF in the event of an attack from insurgents. The military should then be free to form a perimeter around the northern borno and Lake Chad axis and lay a siege on the territories still being controlled by the insurgents to weaken them and gradually retake the territories.
The honest truth is that we can't kill all the terrorists, we need to force many of them to either surrender under reasonable and beneficial terms(operation safe corridor) or force them to seek "greener pastures" elsewhere. This is the only way forward if we want the insurgency to end within five years.

cutievik:
Who cursed us

At our level, we prefer expending energy and worse; sacrificing lives than doing the right things...

DHQ, get drones in the air at night, with infrared capabilities and NVG's, you your would see your targets as clear as daylight, either engage them or communicate their locations to be forwarded to ground forces and of course not without air support for ground forces to engage... Just to add, Let's begin from intelligence gathering, let's pin point there defenses against the state, so ground troops know what to expect.

The fact that these criminals are also seeing and hearing troops and aircrafts on patrols is a form of strategy. Psychological operations, the fear all this will inspire alone will reduce the number of recruits the criminal gangs will be having in the nearest future if not even encouraging some of their members to look for other legitimate means to earn their livelihoods. The military is very much capable of doing what you advised and they are doing it in the Northeast, but they also know what they are doing in this situation.

komekn:
Simply put YES.

And with regards to the parameters you have, l exceed all or them by a considerable margin.

Okay, thanks

komekn:
It really depends on what you understand by professionalism. But I picked up this definition online to give us some context.

Commitment and confidence, responsibility and dependability, honesty and ethics, and appearance and professional presence are central professional characteristics.

"The key to quality and efficiency is professionalism"

Let me explain further, your own personal experiences,understanding and knowledge will shape your expectations.

In this regard I do not expect to see trained combatants, abandoning a Vickers MBT in the face of a hostile engagement few rag tag gun trucks from Boko.

The incidents of dereliction of duty and outright cowardice over the years in the NE are too numerous to count.

I dont expect to see professional soldiers stripping women naked because they take exception to thier choice of attire.

Or decide to shave off the hair amidst horse whipping young men because they choose to have their hair in dread locks.

Or decide to drive against the flow of traffic because the military is exempt from traffic laws and run off anybody in their way.

Or decide as a means of entertainment to beat up people because they are army officer cadets in training and block the main road.

Burning down whole villages because a few militants are alleged or indeed come from that village in the Nigerian Delta.

Numerous incidents of the NA visiting murderous mayhem on other security department like the police when in dispute. That's not a professional approach.

I will not go into the corruption of the senior brass of the NA over many decades. Or in particular Burutai and his many million $ assets acquired as a public servant.

Finally, we saw the professional approach of the NA in shooting at defenceless citizens at Lekki tollgate.

The list is literally ENDLESS of deranged murderous violent behaviour and total lack of accountability by the NA.

That's not my PERSONAL experience of PROFESSIONALISM. We have very different EXPECTATIONS.

Nonetheless, l commend you for your optimism and hero worshiping of the NA, it's really. Misguided patriotism.

If you don't address the problem it continues, without admitting our FAILURES we cannot proceed to SUCCESS and VICTORY by wishful thinking.

Do you have any practical experience with any security situation involving the exchange of bullets?
Have you managed more than 20 people in any professional setting?
I'm just asking to know what you are basing your assessment on.

kabe1:
It's not possible, that's gone.

So na to sell the vehicle for scrap market remain?
Thanks.

Is there any possibility that the steel used in building this APC is still intact? Could it be reused?

This APC, is there any possibility of finding another meaningful purpose for it or is this how it will be abandoned? Did the explosion deminish the strength of the steel used? Just curious.

Xbee007:
Where are the VBIEDs emanating from?? A question that needs to be answered immediately so the location can be destroyed.

The seized VBIED from the March 2020 attack on mongunno featured unexploded bombs dropped by NAF aircrafts.

Who has any information on the exact number of tanks and other lands systems we are still expecting from China. It's been almost a year since the first delivery and that only featured a small number of vehicles.

Just read a thread about the quantity of oil and gas in the lake Chad basin and I can't but shake my head at the opportunity Nigeria is wasting.
Even if we spend $50 billion to ensure peace and security in that region and starts drilling the oil and gas, we will get the money back in a very short period of time.
https://twitter.com/Google_12point7/status/1347875732417114114?s=19

kabe1:
That's a beautiful MRAP.

The front is ugly.

kabe1:
I just hope Nigerian companies benefit from this. It would be a shame if they are not fully carried along.

We know DICON has been given a contract for 52 vehicles, what about Proforce, NMT, EPAIL and Innoson?

I honestly feel Proforce isn't getting as much support as they should be getting from the military. There should be enough orders for Ara II to make sure the company is busy throughout the year. The company won't grow as fast as it should if they don't get this kind of support.

kabe1:
What is Nigeria's Defence Budget?

It is under the finance ministry's budget

In his breakdown of the N675 billion military budget, Ndume said N500 billion is for procurement of arms and ammunition as well as fighting equipment. Operation Lafiya Dole in the Northeast is to get N75 billion for counter-insurgency operations in Sambisa Forest and Lake Chad region.

“The sum of N100 billion is for the ongoing training of 8,000 soldiers in Zaria and Falgore Forest to match with modern warfare against the insurgency.”
https://m.guardian.ng/news/fg-votes-n675-billion-for-arms-training-of-soldiers/

$1.8 billion budgeted for training and arms procurement under ministry of finance budget. I just pray it includes payment for the remaining MI-35s.

Toju200:
NA,NAF are going hot on ISWAP

Also alarming info Terrorist from Niger,Chad, Cameroon are preparing to launch an attack on Baga as a large number of them were spotted.
NN be prepared also NAF

If this is true, there should be at least two attack aircrafts on stand-by less than 15 minutes from Baga. Surveillance drones should also be put to maximum use to remove the advantage of surprise on the part of the terrorists.

This is Nigeria's opportunity to kill large numbers of these terrorists.

Their should be heavy surveillance around the borderd too, the military can either start plucking them off as they come into the country or wait till their attack fails and are retreating before destroying them.

The kind of operation being planned by this terrorist will require heavy logistics that will be very easy to detect if the military is serious.

I pray this opportunity won't be wasted.

On a hot July afternoon in 2014, President Goodluck Jonathan rang me in my office and asked that I join him immediately for a meeting with one of his senior presidential advisers, the Chief of Naval Staff, and two representatives from a Middle East ship building company. When I arrived about fifteen minutes later, the meeting had already commenced, and the President asked the Chief of Naval Staff to summarize for me the essence of the proposals on the table. I was used to being summoned suddenly to the President’s office for important discussions. He had developed a good sense of when to ask for additional help or reinforcements. At these times, I listened carefully to absorb both the material and the atmosphere of the meeting very fast because either large sums of money or tricky problems were on the table. According to the Chief of Naval Staff, the navy was confronting serious challenges because its old and inadequate ships, specialized boats, and other types of equipment were hampering it from carrying out its functions of patrolling and protecting the country’s coastal waters. The naval dockyard was not equipped to carry out the repairs and maintenance of naval assets. The business proposal from the group from Abu Dhabi was to take over the naval dockyard, reequip and refurbish it, and use it as a base for the repairs and maintenance of naval vessels and the construction of new vessels. In particular, one of the navy’s key assets, the ship NNS Aradu, which was badly in need of repair, could be refitted and modernized in the dockyard instead of being sent abroad for repairs. All that was needed, according to the Chief of Naval Staff, was for the navy to ensure an adequate supply of vessels for repair over the term of a memorandum of understanding with the company and/or guarantee the purchase of a number of new boats to be built in the dockyard sufficient to allow the company to recover its investment with a margin.
When I asked about how large this investment needed to be, how it would be made, where the resources would come from, what types of revenue streams would be needed to underpin cost recovery, and how long the agreement would be for, the company representatives—two young men—looked somewhat baffled and irritated. They seemed to think that they were in the presidential office to finalize a deal, not to respond to questions from someone they had not met until then. The Chief of Naval Staff said that this arrangement would cost the government nothing. The company was ready to invest the very serious sum of $2 billion in the business. At that moment, I knew there must be a catch and this must be why the President had sent for me. I was already worried about the notion of guaranteeing a number of boats for repair or purchase sufficient to ensure a return on the company’s investment. Now there was also this ostensible $2 billion in investment. The Chief of Naval Staff turned to the business representatives for further explanations and answers to my questions. The men explained that their company, a large and well-known shipbuilding consortium known as Privinvest, was prepared to modernize the dockyard and set up modern shipbuilding facilities. To do this, they would seek out banks that could syndicate $2 billion in loans, which would be borrowed in the name of their company to make the investment but would have to be guaranteed by the Nigerian government. Finally, the deal was fully on the table. The government would guarantee the loan, the stream of revenues sufficient to make repayments, and a margin left over for the investors. Who wouldn’t want to invest in Nigeria on such terms? How could an investment proposal that left the government with all the risk be taken seriously? I asked the investors for their business plan, and they said they had none—at least, not there. I signaled my unease to the President and pointed out that the guarantee was tantamount to the government taking a loan and, as such, would have to be approved by the National Assembly. We would need to include it in our debt-sustainability analysis to test the country’s ability to absorb and service the loans, particularly if it was to be on commercial terms. The President immediately said that given the issues I had outlined, the proposal needed more work and so the investors and the navy needed to work with me and the Finance Ministry to sort out the issues. Once we had made headway and if it looked feasible, we could revert to him.
I could see that the Privinvest representatives looked far from pleased and had not been expecting this type of meeting. The presidential adviser had the “I told you so” look, as though he was thinking, once you get this woman involved, then this won’t work. The Chief of Naval Staff looked puzzled but remained constructive, assuring the President that they would continue to work with me and my team. The Privinvest representatives said that they had to leave but could return to Abuja in a couple of weeks to continue the discussions. Back in my office, I consulted members of my team to hear their views. All agreed that my assessment was correct: we would have to count the guarantee as a loan and therefore assess whether it was a high-enough priority to justify government borrowing on commercial terms. In addition, we would indeed need to get approval from the National Assembly. Ever since the 2005 Paris Club debt relief agreement that I had spearheaded under President Olusegun Obasanjo’s leadership, which had allowed Nigeria to get rid of a massive $30 billion of debt, the country’s external debt had been managed very carefully. Returning to office as Finance Minister in August 2011, I continued working with the Debt Management Office to maintain a careful approach to external debt. We focused mainly on concessional loans from the multilateral institutions and China. A $2 billion commercial loan would have increased our external debt stock of about $8.82 billion (as of December 2013) by a sizeable 23 percent. It seemed clear to me that the proposed investment approach was a nonstarter and that we would have to present our findings at the next meeting. We could not entangle the country in such debt! A few days later, the Chief of Naval Staff visited my office, and I explained the financial implications to him and the fact that we could not involve the country in such heavy financial obligations. He was distressed and said the navy was on the verge of not being able to fulfill its functions because of the dilapidated state of its assets. How could they block oil thefts, patrol waters to prevent piracy, and play a role in the war on terrorism without proper equipment? He argued that some way forward had to be found to work with Privinvest, given that the navy had been in discussion with the company for months and had even signed a Memorandum of Understanding..........................
........I invited the Finance Ministry’s public-private partnership team, headed by Dr. George Nwangwu, to brainstorm with me, and we proposed a joint venture between the navy and Privinvest within the frame of a special purpose vehicle (SPV). The joint venture would undertake the rehabilitation of the dockyard, repairs and rehabilitation of naval and other maritime vessels, and construction of new boats. The federal government’s equity in the venture would be the dockyard. Privinvest would contribute at least $200 million of its money as equity, and the special purpose vehicle would take out the necessary loans in its own name. The federal government would help to ensure that all maritime agencies used the new venture for their service needs. The new company would try to market its services to all maritime stakeholders and companies, including in neighboring countries. We invited Privinvest for discussions on that basis, and its representatives largely agreed but insisted that the Finance Ministry sign an agreement with a performance guarantee that ensured that the federal government would still guarantee the borrowings of the specialpurpose vehicle to the tune of $1.8 billion. I again refused to do this, even though I knew it would upset some people. Thus, we ended the administration without closing the deal, which was the way I thought the proposal should end. We had worked hard and demonstrated to the navy our willingness to find a viable solution. At the same time, we had avoided what I saw as a very risky financial proposition for the government. The full reality of what we had saved the government by rejecting the Privinvest proposal was made clear to me after I left government and learned of the problems faced by Mozambique from the $850 million bond that had been floated by Ematum, a new government tuna fishing agency, and guaranteed by the government to fund the acquisition of ships, trawlers, and other items through a contract with none other than Privinvest. The issue came to light with the inability of Ematum to service the loan and difficulties for the Mozambican government to do the same due to the dramatic fall in the price of oil and gas starting in late 2014 and continuing into 2015. It was alleged that the loan, which significantly increased Mozambique’s external debt, did not pass through Parliament. When it came to the attention of the international monetary authorities, such as the International Monetary Fund, it caused Mozambique further difficulties. I could imagine a similar situation for Nigeria if we had gone through with the Privinvest deal as presented to us. By taking a firm stance against Privinvest’s proposed multibillion dollar guarantee by Nigeria and at the risk of upsetting important stakeholders, we had saved the country from what could easily have become an embarrassing and burdensome fiscal situation.

Ngozi Okonjo Iweala

Regarding the naval dockyard, Which company is operating it? Reading a book by Okonjo Iweala and came across a paragraph regarding the dockyard and a company named privinvest attempting to push Nigeria into a huge debt trap. Okonjo Iweala blocked the deal till she left office. Who has any idea information regarding the dockyard?

So operation fireball was a huge scam. The Nigerian army has launched a new operation under operation lafiya dole codenamed operation Tura Takai Bango.

lebuhsi:
To be honest it's mind-numbing! Economic loss to an entire region, the size of a lot of countries in Europe, if there was peace in the NE today, this countries economy would grow in double digits, with tens of millions raise out of poverty. It's not rocket science insecurity have been a major hindrance to productivity.

It has affected all parts of Nigeria, not only the NE, the numerous raw materials and agricultural produce we get from that part of the country are no longer available in sufficient quantities. Take for example the livestock sector, majority of the dry maize used in the production of livestock feeds used to be from that region. The insurgency led to several farmers abandoning their farms for IDP camps or for other Jobs and the country had to start importing from other neighboring countries which led to more than 100% increase in the price of livestock feeds around 2010/2011(increased capital input into production). Now with the recent banditry and kidnapping crisis in the Northwest that has led to further scarcity of maize and soybeans, the price of livestock feed has almost tripped to #4500 from the #1800 it used to be about a decade ago. Now a poultry farmer that used to earn around 90k on about 400k recurrent capital every month now earns around 30k on 900k recurrent capital every month with intense difficulty.
Now look at the numbers of poultry farmers we have in this country and how it has affected them individually and the sector as a whole. This is just one sector of a sector of the economy! Coupled with climate change, the fact that several parts of the country received incredibly low amount of rainfall last year. Any farmer depending on rain for production this year is playing with his investment. The inevitable food crisis we are using to joke in this country will shock everyone.

IGpro1:
leave the guy alone, according to him, Egypt cannot defeat SA in war because the later has got link za an EW system.

If you mention jf17, he loses control like he was paid to fight Indians battle

Avoid getting personal, he provided his own data, if you have a different one provide yours too and if either of you isn't satisfied after that, you can agree to disagree.


Honestly, if Nigeria continues with the current rearmarment pace, we could be getting a air superiority jet or a more capable jet than the JF-17 in about 15 year's time. Well, that's if they haven't decided to go all in for the JF-17.

But what we need for the type of security challenges we have are more rotary wing aircrafts. The delivery of the remaining MI-35s should be far more important than those of the JF-17. More MI-171s. The tucanos are also more important than the JF-17.
The alpha jets, F-7NI, Tucanos, and the armed drones in service can perform air interdiction operations, while the helicopters supported by the Tucanos can perform CAS operations. Air superiority capabilities should be a long term goal. Defense spending in the next five years should focus more on the army and to a lesser degree the navy. Purchase of MRAPs, APCs, IFVs Tanks and artilleries should be the major priority.
DICON should look into the local manufacturing of artilleries and mortars, it shouldn't be that difficult, they should challenge themselves beyond production of small arms. In fact Nigeria should be signing defense agreements that will facilitate transfer of technologies in this regard,we can't do this alone in a short period of time. The aim for the army is to do away with soft skin vehicles for high risk operations and patrols in high risk areas in the next four years. After that, they can then focus on increased firepower. The negative effects of insecurity in the economy is enormous and any amount spent to ensure peace and stability will be recouped in few years time.

SamuelAnyawu:
Monguno under attack!!!!!

First attack on Monguno in 10 months. Last time they attacked was March 2020.

Iran has absolutely nothing to gain by giving Trump and Netanyahu pretext for war in the last days of the Trump administration, they have a lot to lose if war were to break out.

Ken006:
What exactly makes the cost of flying these jets so expensive...I thought some parts are just charged,maintenance and it's refueled and that's not going to cost that much?

The quantity of fuel jet engines consume alone! And it's not the regular fuel you use, it is very expensive.

Raaven:
yes and that mean when you buy a jet for exemple a sukhoi 30 MKI with 60 millions dollar per unit . with their service life of 6000 flight hours ( lets say 30 years) . cost flight per hour is around 22.000 dollars per hour . thats 132 millions per jet during its life service .


for exemple algerian air force have with the last contract a fleet of 74 sukhoi 30 MKA so they spent around 4.4 billions dollars to buy them and they will spend around 9.7 billions in their 30 years of service .

even if its difficult to find the true flight cost per hour , the manufacturer will decrease the cost to sell , the competitors will overestimate the cost. you find a lot of different stats on internet .


for the jf 17 block II with 25 millions dollars per unit , with theirr service life of 4000 flight hours ( around 25 years ) . havnt found official stats but lets says the flight cost per hour is cheap . ( less estimation say 4000 dollars / per hour , some say 14.000 dollars / per hour ) . its another 16 millions dolllars at least . to 56 millions dollars to fly one JF17 for 25 years.

if nigeria get in the future a squadron 14 jets + two for formation . the cost for 16 block II . thats 400 millions dollars to buy them and 256 millions $ at least to 856 millions $ to fly them for 25 years


found this doc for SAAF flight cost per hour in round . that 4400 dollars per hour for fuel and DOD of a gripen ??

If the unit cost of the JF-17 is $25 million, then Nigeria is most likely getting more than 3 because we've budgeted more than $75 million since we started the acquisition process.


Didn't factor the cost of ammunitions and other weapons systems coming with so I might be wrong.

No major procurements listed in the budget. We will have to wait for delivery or statements from service chiefs.