₦airaland Forum

rebekah2011:
I wonder when guys will learn on Investment. Dont bet on stocks that have proven to be disastrous over the years. Go with tested stocks and be content with little appreciation. My I kobo advice.

Thanks, sister. I hope people now bidding up iei will heed this pundit advice and allow it return to the car park so I can complete my loading up before it's trumpet sounds.

Primetech:
Wapic and IEI, which is likely a goldmine in 5yrs time?

90% of stocks on the nse are likely goldmines in 5 yrs. All market economists, local and international, are bullish on Nigeria long term. I hv a gut feeling of 100% iei upside in 5 months. All that is needed is one positive quarterly result.

Access Bank has supassed it's self in corporate gymnastics. How can you be in the market looking for money and sharing money all at the same time? Abeg, the dividend is welcome o. I understand their dilemma. With 8b new shares to be created for the Rights, there is no room for bonus.

Kevostica:
Do u advocate we buy wk b4 or wk after election?

Chibuking has said, and lt is true, that people will exit market for fear of the unknown. So when each individual drops his fear of the unknown, or when the unknown becomes known to each individual, then he can start buying again. I don't think Chibu has any other formular to spoonfeed us on that. So, off we go on Chibuking's jijo holiday, as we shut down our jijo machines and pick up our PVCs .

zendi:
Both sentiments help us to make balanced decisions when not over noised. But you are not quite right on chibuking. While myjoy is ALWAYS bullish, Chibu is bearish only for this season, and has room to be bullish sometime later, when he considers all or most obstacles cleared.

I believe also that all traders love bears when in cash and bulls when in stock. So both bearish and bullish analysts are helpful and okay.

kotlass:
One obstacle actually

Yes, when we hv crossed one dark river wey be like say e go contain some crocodiles and pythons.

bigass:
@newbies listen to @myjoy08 without due diligence at your own peril.

@myjoy08 and @Chibuking81 are equal and opposite. One is always bullish the other always bearish. So both can make your feverish

Both sentiments help us to make balanced decisions when not over noised. But you are not quite right on chibuking. While myjoy is ALWAYS bullish, Chibu is bearish only for this season, and has room to be bullish sometime later, when he considers all or most obstacles cleared.

jauntty:
President Goodluck is Visiting the Nigeria Exchange today.

Gurus in the house, is there any likely impact of his visit on equities today ??

http://starconnectmedia.com/2015/03/11/jonathan-meets-stock-brokers-in-lagos/

For now, his visit no concen profit takers o. But Continuity's election win will be more bullish on the market than Change's win. I no call anybody by name o.

Kagame:
FBNH? Quite doubtful.

FBNH cannot have a dividend yield of 20% since their 9months profit have been capitalized as retained earning for the purpose of Basel 2 compliance.

I will be very surprised to see over10% dividend yield from FBNH at current price (assuming dividend will only be paid from Q4 earnings). For that to happen, they would need to declare a fantastic Q4 result, of which the major driver would have to come from non-interest income ,especially forex trading as GTB benefited hugely from forex volatility in Q4 ,as can be seen from their recently released results. I dont expect any surprises from FBNHs Q4 interest income,given the current macroeconomic conditions.

FBNH's full year EPS guidance is about N2.34 of which 3/4 of this amount is already capitalized.

Taking a general look at the sector with a view to identifying the mystery bank .

Access - Might not pay a fantastic dividend as they are in the market to raise money and have not been largely successful in that regard.

UBA - Same situation with Access .

Diamond - Likely to have a payout ratio of 30%. Added to the newly listed right shares,expect a drop in EPS .Not known to be generous with dividend so dont expect a miracle here. Likely dividend within the 0.3 to 0.4 range.

Skye - Acquired mainstreet through an off balance sheet transaction. Capital appreciation is much likely ,but handsome dividends? I don't think so. They need cash to integrate their new acquisition.

Stanbic IBTC - Strong brand ,good results but cant give a 10% yield at current price,going by their dividend history.

Ecobank - Not a bank to spring surprises. Low expectations.

Fidelity - Not known for fantastic dividends. Dont expect a surprise this time around.

Sterling - Had a fairly good year. Any surprises ? I dont think so.

Unity bank - No comment. Any objections?

Union bank - No surprises.

FCMB - I deliberately left it for the last. This might be the mystery bank. Feelers from last year showed they had an intention of raising tier 2 capital. With the current situation of the capital markets and the CBN regulation on foreign borrowing, they might choose to retain their earnings to boost tier 1 capital in compliance with the basel 2 accord. Also note that there is a subsisting circular limiting dividend payout by banks who are yet to meet the minimum CAR under basel 2. Knowing all this ,will I place a bet on a fantastic dividend from FCMB ? I dont think so.


Where is the mystery bank brothers?

I expect Access to keep what money they have and give bonus.
They have the least shares outstanding among the top 5 banks.

soloniger:
or just type '. ' and press submit button

Ok, brothers, it's done. Thanks for your efforts. @presiade, thank you v much.

MARKET PROVERB :
If you must understand all about Hedging before you board,
you will miss Oando Bus.

Kagame:
bloomberg,investing.com, FT etc.

Feeds are dispalyed with a 30mins delay.

Ok, thanks..

presiade:
^Modify the post

Thanks. What I want is a delete button to remove entire post but it seems there is none.

MarvellousGod:
.... i knew it was going to be like this today.. we informed our clients immediately yesterday when dividend was declared so they could place mandate for execution immediately market started today... Market is on fire, gaining 1% already..

Pls where do I see Index movement while market is on?
And again, blessed forumites, how does one delete own post?
(like the messed up one above)

Chibuking81:
If GTB close at 22.02 and Zenith bank close at 19, and both did not declare dividend above #2, remember due to expectation of their result market move up from below to their current price. With the current Nigeria situation that gave invitation to mr bear, which he has honoured, do you think that their upward movement will continue and last till the end of this month.

For sure, the bear will come. But you and I may be surprised or even shocked to see that the dreaded season 5 may already have passed. That is, it may never again be as bad as we have already seen. For instance, election or no election, we may never see the whole of skye(+ mainstreet as bonus) @ N1.70 again, as it was 3 weeks ago. Also remember that your crystal ball missed this bull we have been enjoying for three weeks now. Three wks ago, the Nigerian market was the best performing on the planet, and that was mr market's way of showing us who has the last say, and his infinite capacity to surprise. What is even the worst that can happen with the election? A civil war break out? No way. The worst scenario is some post-election violence which will be managed by the security forces and not by Oscar Onyeama. So you might see that while the security forces are dealing with any disturbances (and there won't be any in Lagos where the Exchange is located), bulls will be rampaging on the floor. Because speculators will never wait for all headwinds to clear before they start scrambling for the gems heaped on the floor.

Nigerian Banks Are Dying (headline)
Nigerian Banks Are Dead (headline)
Then, Nigerian Banks Roar In Stupendous Results (all headwinds considered)

Folks panic that banks are exposed to the upstream oil sector, when the upstream companies have not shown
any sign of defaulting. As at this morning brent crude is heading towards $62/barrel.
Please which Nigerian banks would be beneficiaries of the Oando Hedge tool payout?

Kevostica:
ie N30

All things are possible, in the short, medium or long term.

Kevostica:
where is ur bus stop; Sokoto or Kano?

Na sokoto side I de go, far away from boko haram in the north east.

All fellow oando passengers I greet o.
Na me dey for back back seat they greet as una dey jump in lagos-style so.
But now bus don full, and door closed.
I wish us safe journey o.

Dumexoga:
Thumbs up for you bro, you are on point. Your imagination is so wide. Thinkers like you will never stink.

More successes to us all. Thanks.

kotlass:
Stock market is funny o. So what happened to all the negative news on FBNH? They no longer exists or investors have suddenly forgotten? FBNH seen at N8.30.

All those scary news are what make wealth transfers happen. FBN has been around since, is it 1893 they put in front of those buildings? You think it will choose now to vanish away because I've taken position in their stock? Look, these banks will always find a way to make money. Afterall, banks make money even in nations without a drop of crude oil.

kotlass:
Was surprised when I saw this in the morning.

http://www.proshareng.com/news/26174.html

Positive news, on a near negative day, a day of nervous profit taking, which can open the way for the invasion of angry election bears, if not overcome by the weakening postponement bulls.

Kevostica:
I think Oando wants to divest and list its downstream in Nse. could that be the reason?

Oando stock had stagnated for the following reasons (1) The crude oil price crash. This has not been the best of times for crude oil producing/exporting companies and nations around the world. (2) The general Nigerian Market condition occasioned by the said crude oil crash, the naira crash and election blues, and (3) News drought. Oando stock thrives on Press Releases with forward looking statements , and there have not been many Press Releases coming out of Oando lately. As for the divestment, they should thank their stars they had not foolishly gambled away their downstream business, just when oil companies around the world are falling back on their downstream operations (refining arms and all that) to help them weather the effect of the upstream crash. I'm sure that divestment is dead, unless the oando fathers are in cahoots with the buyers of the downstream biz.

Aks:
I've just positioned myself on Transcorp, Int Breweries and Oando. Finger XXXX

I've camped in oando since o. It has refused to join the bull, even though crude oil is improving. Oando at current price should be attractive, afterall it's making money in dollars and should be immune to the crashing naira, unless I'm missing something, like it's huge debts.

Chibuking81:
Stocks will and must surely fall this month, no 'metakwalism'. Nothing will stop it.

Brother, this your point, methinks, is enough made. No need turning it to a decree, or an invocation. We are all conscious of the expected "election fever" bear. I believe everybody is adequately alerted, and no further positive purpose is served by going on chanting "stocks must fall" like a mantra. Whatever will be, what is happening now is that market is rallying. When we get to that river, we shall know how to cross it.

bigass:
Imagine a foreign investor who borrowed 1million dollars to trade,he converted it to 160million Naira. Traded in market turned his investment to 200million. Suddenly the Naira fell to 220. His investment and and profit now stands at 0.91 million dollars lower than his initial capital. He is in debt so the earlier in leaves the better. Once currency is stabilised he can then come back.

serves that imaginary monkey dealer right. He came to JIJO. Better for him to reset the loan and remain JISPed until naira recovers.

Born2berich:
True but banks stocks refused to fall today. Maybe they are yet to read this news.

Actually GTB is single handedly driving this bull. Even when it's not gaining big, it has so far refused to fall back to it's former crashed position, thereby emboldening buyers into the market.

myjoy08:
Don't take my information as a buying tools or recommendation to buy any stocks but do your own research...

Some banks are planning to repay their shareholders in terms of massive and unexpected dividends payout and bonus (probably). Once again, plz don't quote me...it might be hear say! Many of their results are finally ready...

This is duly noted, and duly fed into our JIJO radar.
Market hearsay is an important tool in stocks speculation. And how you use the tool is a personal responsibility. Everybody is the the pilot of his own portfolio and solely responsible to self, regardless of what anybody posts here. So please let nobody be discouraged to keep actionable info coming.

FrankTalk1:
No be lie you talk my brother. We will put two eyes on the date as the date approaches say 2wks.

Na so. Though e bi like say profit taking wan shake market today.

Man just dey ride this bull with one eye on one date wey them circle for the wall calender.
hmn.., but that date still far small sha.

lancee:
Don't feel bad bro ,there is always another day like u said by next week/ soon another opportunity will come. Am glad i did not listen to that person saying people were dumping last week , election is still few weeks away again there may be another bull before then

But were people not dumping last week? Truth is that the market is full of surprises, sometimes bitter, sometimes sweet.