tuniski:
wherever u got your stat from, it is completely incorrect! A cursory dismissal is the simple fact that is in the margins. The entire SW had a marginal 600k votes over pdp. Don't forget the acn votes of ribadu contributed mainly. They were not particularly pdp revolt votes. Now the middle belt votes were the actual revolt votes PdP to Apc. ACN was inconsequential in the region. For SE, it can be argued that the real impact albeit negatively comes from voters scared away in the north!

My source is INEC official results 2011 & 2015. If you don't have the official results, visit INEC website or use google. My analysis is not comparing PDP votes vs. APC votes. My analysis is comparing Bulgari's 2011 performance against his 2015 performance. What am contesting here is your statement that GEJ lost due to northern revolt. This would imply massive gain or increase in northern votes when compared to 2011 result. But the 2015 count does not reflect this. If you don't see PMB's 2011 performance as revolt by northern voters, then 2015 performance cannot be seen as a northern revolt because the difference between 2011 & 2015 count in the north is insignificant. Increase in buhari's 2015 performance from 12million to 15million is due mainly to SW & some NC votes. If there was voters revolt, it was from the South. Buhari won because GEJ lost voters across the six geopolitical regions, but Buhari's gain in vote count was mainly from SW.

vayne:
What you guyz are failing to understand is that no SE/SS governor will openly support Biafra,if that's what you are waiting for.


But deep down,look with your inner eyes,only then shall you realize the truth that they are pro-biafrans.

No SE governor will support Biafra, cos there will be nothing to 'chop' in Biafra (i.e. no free food).

tuniski:
middle belt is north central to some part of NE adamawa,taraba gombe. These were traditional pdp strongholds but revolted cos of the bloodbath used as campaign issue number one by buhari/apc. The internal rift at state levels didn't help matters. The south west is overrated especially tinubu's contribution!

I would advise you work with facts (as much as possible). It will help your argument. See below for the source of the 'revolt' you talking about....

Source of Buhari's additional 3 million votes 2011 vs. 2015

FCT - Increased by 14,000
NC - Increased by 651,000
NE - Decreased by 776,000
NW - Increased by 461,000
SE - Increased by 177,000
SS - Increased by 368,000
SW - Increased by 2,111,000

So you can see the source of the 'revolution', mainly from south west. Votes from north east reduced by 776,000. So you can that Buhari's victory was never the result of northern voters 'revolt'.

tuniski:
na wa for this your post ooo. GEj/PdP uphold federal character and the north didn't only complained it revolted! Today buhari is the president as a result of this revolt nothing like change

Buhari been getting good results in the North since 2003. The 12 million votes he got in 2011 mainly from the North. Not much increase in Northern votes in 2015. The additional 3 million votes for 2015 were mainly from Southwest & Middle Belt. Buhari did not win the 2015 election as a result of voters revolt in the North, he won because of voters revolt in the South (mainly SW) & Middle Belt!

MacluvPH:


Guy man, shut up. You aren't any south southerner and I have seen your earlier posts you are a damn yoruba guy trying to use your normal divide and rule tactics on us south south and our south eastern brothers.

During election why didn't you support our brother Jonathan,if you love us so much.

Abeg park well joor.

The man said he is from Edo State. Apart from Edo central, majority of Edo people don't play tribal politics.

TonyeBarcanista:

My friend, I'm a full blooded Ijawman, I am telling you that SS people don't hate anybody.

PDP loosing votes in SS if they present a northern Muslim in 2019 will not really be because of hatred for anybody, it will be because an SS man is not on the ticket (what i would call the 'our brother' factor).

TonyeBarcanista:

My friend, I'm a full blooded Ijawman, I am telling you that SS people don't hate anybody.

This is true, even though there will always be exception.

TonyeBarcanista:

In 2011 we voted enmass for Yar'adua, in 2019 we'll vote enmass for Ribadu/Northern candidate especially when our cousin (Igbo) is in the ticket.

@ the bit highlighted in red font, the average SS person will not vote PDP simply because an Igbo man is on the ticket. And you know why? it is because they don't hate anybody. They will assess the Igbo man the way they would assess a yoruba or any other tribe.

TonyeBarcanista:

In 2011 we voted enmass for Yar'adua, in 2019 we'll vote enmass for Ribadu/Northern candidate especially when our cousin (Igbo) is in the ticket. It is a way of paying them back for their unflinching support to our brother GEJ, and also to reward PDP for being a true Nigerian brand instead of sectional brands like APC.

You honestly believe the average SS voter gives a damn about sectional or national brands!! It's obvious you don't know your people. The average SS voter is neither PDP nor APC, cash and/or influence (personalities) determines the direction of their vote.

TonyeBarcanista:

PMB's performance is another issue! My analyses is based on political calculation.

I think you should consider performance. There will be no need for an election between PMB and Ribadu if PMB performs. It will simply be a waste of election materials and time. Benue, Kogi, Ondo, Ekiti, and other northern states you mentioned will not be voting PDP if PMP performs. I also don't see the incentive for the NC states voting against PMB with PDP also presenting a Muslim candidate. The problem is that you assume the NC states to be party loyal.

Its also very possible for APC to lose 2019 if they present a non performing PMB for 2nd term (that of course will depend on the candidate presented by PDP). I assume we are not considering the benefits to be derived from being the existing holder of political office (incumbency).

TonyeBarcanista:

For your information, performance of a leader is not a guarantee that opposition won't oust him. Kwankwaso perfomed so well in 1999-2003 but Shekarau ousted him because of Sai Buhari back up! Same Kwakwaso was re-elected in 2011.

...and you believe Ribadu has the qualities to oust a performing PMB in the North?

TonyeBarcanista:

PDP may not sweep North-East, but once we can retain Taraba, Gombe and get Adamawa state we are good to go. In the North Central, we are at pole position to reclaim the states of Kogi, Plateau and Benue. We all know that APC has been decimated in Kwara state because of the faction(Saraki n BAT). Nasarawa state also appears good! The only state that might be difficult is Niger. In the South West, we only need to retain Ekiti and Ondo states, while grabbing Osun state. Our 40% visibility in Lagos is a plus if it can be retained. With all these + the 11 states of the SESS, APC and Buhari is bound to suffer their worst defeat ever.

We must present candidate that can match Buhari credibility for credibility, and who has sterling antecedent. Ribadu is d man!

PDP winning the 2019 election will depend on PMB's performance and presidential candidate presented by both APC & PDP. Your analysis here is based only on the assumption that PMB will fail.

TonyeBarcanista:

With all these + the 11 states of the SESS, APC and Buhari is bound to suffer their worst defeat ever.

With a Northern candidate, PDP will loose votes in the SS. Your people in the SS will not really 'give a damn' about who wins the election between PDP & APC.

Lordave:

Secondly, I vehemently disagree with you utterly that Igbos need others to trust them with power. How many ethnic groups trusted Buhari, GEJ and OBJ with power before they won their elections? Mind you I said how many ethnic groups and not number of people.

If trust is not a factor, on what basis do people vote? because they are paid to vote?

Lordave:

Of course they are not doing enough to gain an unnecessary trust, cos no matter how hard they try, the 'major tribes' will still hypocritically favour someone who is indifferent with the wellbeing of Igbos.

The question is why? i believe you have the answer. Please share....

Lordave:

Of course they are not doing enough to gain an unnecessary trust, cos no matter how hard they try, the 'major tribes' will still hypocritically favour someone who is indifferent with the wellbeing of Igbos.

....maybe it's due to absence of candidates with concern for the well-being of Igbos....

Lordave:

we need a leader who has the interest of Igbos at heart only.

I agree.

Lordave:

Trying to carry Nigeria along is presently an unnecessary burden. A nation of our own is 100 times better than 7 consecutive Igbo presidents of Nigeria.

This defeatist attitude is not good. I believe the SE have all it takes to stake a claim for a place in the Nigerian project. If only you just try a little harder.

Lordave:

Talking about gaining the trust of major tribes, are the minor tribes inconsequential in Nigeria politics?

I meant the population that determine the direction of votes.

Lordave:
Living in the North doesn't change anything. It won't make Hassan hesitate in slicing your throat at the slightest religious or political provoke(never gonna happen though).

Most ethnic groups in Nigeria are on their own in the political sphere except the so called Hausa-Fulani.
Nigeria politics is a politics of deceit and unending want to subdue a seeking partner. No proper and sensible compromises and no tangible considerations. Greed is inevitable and vengeance is a priority.

Man, Nigeria is a mistake, it's unfortunate we've had to deal with the consequences till now and I'm disappointed you think one of us really has a shot in piloting the affairs of this country.

I think the South east can govern this country. But they just need others to trust them with power. I don't think they are doing enough to build that level of trust required to gain support of major tribes.

TheFreeOne:


Is your cement analogy all you can deduce from my post or you are trying to be funny?

So its not necessary encouraging strong institutions cos there's an assumed strong leader with strong body language

Take an institution like efcc. Why would anybody consider it to be strong? Is it because the commission is effective in handling economic crimes? If the efcc is seen to be effective, the question is how was it achieved? Is it because we have angels working in efcc or is it because to do otherwise will result in sanctions? So who or what system ensures personnel continues to do the right thing by adhering to policies/processes? Leadership? Other External checks? Institutions are effective because people running them want to succeed or some external forces/regulators want them to succeed.

So back to your question, to encourage strong institution means ensuring these institutions functions as intended and it's not just by empowerment. Effectiveness is most times a reflection of that institutions perception of the altitude of the ultimate oga at the top. So body language matters (for now).

TheFreeOne:

Having strong men or men of muscle is of no use in the long run without strong institutions.

Because you see the word 'strong', you probably assumed strong institutions are made of cement. That's so wrong. Institutions are managed by people and if it is effective it means you either have the right leadership or there is an effective external check or both.

chukwudi44:

Well the onus is not on you to say who or who shall not be probed.Besides it ia not for government to probe CAN.

Don't you think your comment above also applies to those insisting that probe of GEJ administration will be accepted unless PMB also probe OBJ, IBB and other past leaders?

barcanista:

The north wanted a core North SP to xonsolidate on their hold of power. The PDP and South catched in by Supporting a NC and in process gaining the Deputy Senate slot for the SE, Deputy Speaker slot for the SW and taking out ALL the Northern plans from the system.

Who is the PDP? is the PDP not the same as core north or South?

barcanista:

Can Saraki and Dogara stand without the South and PDP? No! So we call the shot!

LOL! @bolded

barcanista:

PS: The PDP will field a SEner as VP or Presidential candidate in 2019.

Mr. barcanista, you are dreaming. You need to wake up.

EUROBOMBER:


Answer my question, should they have allowed boko haram a free hand to go on a killing spree?

You should read the report. AI is not talking about the killing of boko haram members.

barcanista:

The battle for 2016 is just kicking off. Like I pointed out in one thread, PdP will takeover the Government House in Benin.

May God Spare our lives

So you truly believe PDP will be in a condition to fight for Edo State Government house in 2016? Lol! Good number of PDP members will be card carrying members of APC in 2016 except for politicians like Anenih & Pastor Ize-Iyamu (only because they have nowhere to go).

@image123, i sending a trailer load of orijin to ya place

PastorKun:
The story below reached us this morning (23/02/2015). It came from one of our reliable sources in Nigeria. It is one of the most disturbing stories that we have yet received. Read it and make your own judgement!
“I have it on a strong ground that there is a plan to capture a Shekau before the week to elections. And the captured Shekau who is currently undergoing training on what to say and do will mention Buhari as one of their core sponsors. The target according to the source is to discourage Southern voters and the Northern Christians (from liking Buhari). The confession is alleged to be so perfectly planned that Buhari may even be arrested and even those who love him may think twice (about his sincerity). The sum of 4.5 billion Naira is purportedly budgeted. The purpose of this budget I am told is for bribing some Northern clerics so when the time comes, they will pacify their followers (to reject Buhari as he is BoKo Haram sponsor). There will purportedly be audio of phone calls (between Buhari and the Boko Haram leaders). Buhari will not be able to sue the government since it will be an arranged confession of a captured terrorist. Now, I am not saying this (leak) is true. But knowing how desperate these PDP people are, they can do just anything to get Buhari out of the way. Honestly, I am deeply, deeply, deeply, worried. In fact, I am troubled. Kindly share this and let the world know about this evil machination of the PDP before it is too late. Kindly do it. The person who gave me this information is an Intelligence officer with the Army. He looks worried too.”
May God save Nigeria and Nigerians. Amen.

Hope they don't try it. Accusing Buhari of anything at this time is very risky. This has the potential to blow up in their face.

barcanista:
Bro, I agree that the policy may inflict temporal pain on the economy, but it is a good one on the long and mid term. The govenment only need to follow up this plan holistically and provision of infrastructure. This will shoot down production costs and it will affect the eventual price. Bro, this policy is good

you want me to wait mid - long term before am able to buy a brand new car. Okay o. Just praying that the mid - long term to don't end up being extra long term them fit don abadon project before that time anyway

patmaine:



I laugh when u say the status quo create jobs...
let me use innoson. to paint a picture..

innoson is situated at Nnewi. My hometown....at uru village. close to innoson factory is otc automotive cable. they make control cables and electricals..imagine if innoson patronize with anamco and peace..close to otc company is chicason group. they make az engine oil...innoson can be thr customer.. ibeto manufacture union battery..fan belt..brakepad. lining..motor fan...expresso engine oil... innoson motors can be thr customer...cutix plc. makers of one of the best cable in d world.. the is another upholstery company I don't know the name. of course they can make seats for innoson...a lot of small scale industry making things like spring..filter..lots of plastic Industry in town....due to the demand for tyres. innoson had to set up a tube and tyre company at enugu...now imagine all this companies have to increase their staff due to increased patronage..
imagine how many job innoson as a company created directly and indirectly...imagine the service center spread across the country..imagine the dealership across the country... imagine indirect job of people trading on innoson car parts....the imagine the impact of bigger players like Nissan and other car plants springing up all over the country...

Even without local car assembly, the part manufacturers can grow by making parts for servicing/repairs of automobiles. parts manufacturers will thrive producing parts/spares for maintaining the millions of cars on our roads today. It's not compulsory you have a car manufacturing plant before you make tyres, brakepad, fan belt, battery or engine oil.

patmaine:

the point of the policy..
when the companies producing now can't meet demand other companies will have to open to cash in.

What demand? am not sure you understand the market.

barcanista:

Bros, Nigerians buy Tokunbo because "na there their power reach" for now. If a Newly made locally made car of same specs with camry 2.2, and cost about N300,000-N500,000, Nigerians will prefer it to a Tokunbo Camry 2.2 that costs almost/over a million. The buying decision of consumers is always driven by many factors which the automobile policy has taken care of.Before now the volume of imported vehicles exceed 60,000 units annually, and do they still sustain? Do you know the Engineers, accountants, coorporate Advisors, lawyers and many other professionals will will be employed if production is made here? Even the quoted units of import isnot enough Nigerians will buy more when its more affordable which the policy will take care of, because jobs and more money will reach many households.

Are you saying we don't buy our cars for now but wait till the time government is able to bring down the cost of owning a car? The pocket plays a part in the buying decision of consumers. Increasing tariff on tokunbo cars will not make me buy a brand new that is twice the price. The auto policy is a very good idea (on paper) but i don't see how the goals will be achieved if the market is not taken into consideration. At current price, the policy (fully implemented) will bring pain to Nigerians instead of jobs.

Immune1:

Passenger vehicles production is part of the plan but based on the investors preference so far and with the realities on ground; commercial vehicles production seems to be the most sustainable for now. Government has been buying time to study the investors that are willing to invest before they know the tariffs that will be raised. Based on the willing investors willing to build facilities i wont be surprised if government only raises tariffs for commercial vehicles.
Remember the tariffs are yet to be raised; but the waivers for CKD/SKD/DKD components importation is well in place to open up the industry.

I want to believe the tariff for brand new passenger vehicle is already up.

Boss13:

The idea is not bad. I am only interested in the cost implication. I just feel it is a policy to appear popular because it may be difficult to implement. Like Soludo said, a plan without naira or kobo is a wish-list

Exactly!

Immune1:

Heard of RMB?Wesbank is their subsidiary and they will roll out specialized loans/financing for customers willing to buy from our local manufacturers. And for your information 70% of the 33manufacturers already on ground are commercial/Utility vehicle producers; this means passenger vehicles are not the primary targets for the first phase of the policy implementation.

I am an business analyst in the automotive industry and i can assure you that the policy is very feasible if all the other pieces of the puzzle are fixed; thats the more reason Nigeria needs continuity and a stable political ambience.

If the focus is on production of commercial and utility vehicles, why is the government increasing duty/levy payable on passenger vehicles?

Owliver:

this is not a wrong time sire. The industry is still young and we need to give it time and also encourage more direct investors. With that prices will reduce. Everything can't just go well in a single year na. Haba... Osibanjo is mad

So you believe the more the investors, the lower the price? even when there are no buyers? Lol!

deemdeem:

[b]
The auto policy is good just like the proposed full deregulation of petrol but the timing is wrong.
Some major infrastructural deficiencies needs to be sorted out first before the auto policy should be hailed.
These deficiencies primarily include but not limited to Power.
Innosun for instance highest overhead cost during production goes into power generation to his factories. He in return, place it on the final cost of his vehicles produced. I don't know of any of his vehicles that is less than 2.5 million (before fall of naira ooooo).
How many Nigerians will choose to go for an Innosun at such price when u can get a good tokunboh C Class Mercedes-Benz with lesser amount? In my opinion, 2005 benz is still superior to its 2015 Innosun counterpart.
Till date, govt still remain Innosun biggest customer. This shouldn't be. Innosun cars price needs to come down and this will only happen if cost of production is drastically reduced. That should be out govt greatest concern now and not increasing tariffs therby increasing and forcing on Nigerian throats very expensive vehicles which doesn't[/b] reflect true value for money.

Thank you.

barcanista:

Nigerians buy automobiles, the rich politician, the contractor, the banker, the bus "danfo" driver, the low-middle class etc all buy vehicles.

Mainly tokubo vehicles except for politicians and extra large contractors. We are talking about brand new cars. that's what the local plant will be producing.

barcanista:

The policy will create jobs, lots of jobs, it will cause increase in patronage of raw materials thereby cause increase in trade and commerce,

It will create lots of jobs if we are able to consume everything that's produced. The volume of imported vehicles is about 60,000 annually (if am correct). The implication is that the volume cannot sustain more than two or three manufacturers. So i don't see the lots of jobs anywhere. You don't need local assembly to increase patronage of raw materials. It's even easier and better to start with the local production of replacement parts to service vehicles in use.

barcanista:

it helps our Balance of trade as we will be importing less commodities, whch also reduce inflation and will cause the naira to appreciate since local automobile transaction will be in naira and there will increase in naira circulation.

Focus on refining first. Impact of imported cars on foreign reserve is not so material when compared to refined petroleum products (in tens of billions USD). Refining will create more jobs, open up more industries (petrochemical, chemical, plastic, textile e.t.c).

barcanista:

The policy of government makes it difficult to import cars and put the locally made product at advantage in the market. Imagine two SUVs of similar specification, one costs N1million, the other costs N5million or N7million. Which will receive more patronage all other things being equal?

This is based on the assumption that we can afford the cheaper alternative, but we know local version is not cheap.

Boss13:

Of course, the differential between importing a new car and assembling them here in the country may not be much.

The issue should be, how do we get the average nigerian to buy these cars manufactured or assembled in nigeria.

Thank you. "how do we get the average nigerian to buy these cars manufactured or assembled in nigeria"? This is why i say Nigeria is not ready for local assembly. The truth is that majority of Nigerians cannot afford brand new cars. So who is going to consume the output? Putting a credit system in place is one thing, can we afford the credit? do we earn enough to qualify for the credit?

barcanista:

I support the Automobile policy of this government though I feel that they can do more. Reversing the policy high tarrif on automobile import or lifting it is counter productive. I will even support 80% tarriff so as to discourage patronage to favor local production. However, the government should see that they check the influx of such goods via illegal routes

The auto policy as it is is designed to bring pain to Nigerians. We are not ready for it. Our economy just cannot take it. It makes little difference if the car is imported or manufactured locally. How Nigerians buy brand new automobiles (aside politicians and corporate)? I really don't see locally assembly making any serious impact if our economy cannot consume their output. Let the Government focus on areas that will impact more on the economy e.g. power, refining, agriculture e.t.c