Welcome, Guest: Register On Nairaland / LOGIN! / Trending / Recent / New
Stats: 3,150,634 members, 7,809,386 topics. Date: Friday, 26 April 2024 at 08:35 AM

Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings - Politics (4) - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings (32255 Views)

Igbo Youth President Warns Obasanjo Over Anti-jonathan Comments / Us Top Think-tank, Brookings; Say Apc Is A Fragile Anti- Jonathan Setup / “Jonathan Will Win 2015 Election But Be Cut Short” – Prophet Emmanuel Nwazuo (2) (3) (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (Reply) (Go Down)

Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by philips70(m): 1:18pm On Jan 20, 2015
kennyjodeci:


Nigerians have fallen in love with buhari? Are you kidding me? Ichagokwa anya? Abeg speak for yourself alone


The unprecedented crowd you have been seeing went there to stone him? Ain't you aware crowd are still chanting Sai Buhari even in GEJ's campaigns? No woman on mother earth have ever witnessed the kind of love that Buhari possesses at the moment. All thanks to GEJ and the Gang.

1 Like

Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Suljosh: 1:18pm On Jan 20, 2015
Hi dear...!

Are you at home?

Yeah I am.

Get nak.ed and put a stew on your nipp.les,
I am coming home to lick it off.

For fucksake!
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Ilekeh(f): 1:19pm On Jan 20, 2015
SirShymex:


The tripe has absolutely nothing to do with US - just an opinion of an half-baked academic who contributes to the Institution's blogs about Africa. Brookings doesn't even deal with issues about Africa. I guess that's why no one vetted what the guy wrote. It's an American-centric that primarily deals with the US and its foreign policy.

Anyway, I think it's like the UK's Institute for Public Policy Research.

wink
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by lirusehn(m): 1:19pm On Jan 20, 2015
Guidette:
WHY JONATHAN CANT WIN IN 2015
1. He has maligned the core north of Hausa and Fulani labelling them as power hungry. I can see 90% of them voting for APC.

2. He and his cronies have castigated all muslims in Nigeria and enveloped them as blood sucking terrorists. Meanwhile roughly half of the country is Muslim. I see 95% of of them voting for APC.

3. He and his followers then decided to become dumbasses of the century by focusing on rotten smear tactics that have reached a new low. I can see more than 99% of reasonable, literate and intelligent people voting for APC.

4. On a whole Jonathan has underperformed and destroyed critical areas of Nigeria in terms of economy, security, infrastructure,etc. I see patriotic and well meaning Nigerians voting 100% for APC.

Now tell me how Jonathan can win the election.

Sai Buhari!!!



undecided
of all APC supporters ave met and seen yu happen to be so senseless.

NoInsultMeant

1 Like

Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Nobody: 1:20pm On Jan 20, 2015
[size=28pt]First of all, it was NOT Brookings US that wrote this paper.

It was a Nigerian professor.[/size]



Brookings Global Staff | December 30, 2014 4:00pm

Foresight Africa 2015: Understanding the Issues in the 2015 Nigerian Presidential Election

In February 2015, voters in Nigeria, sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, will head to the polls to choose their next president. In the past few years, several separate, regional political parties merged into the All Progressive Congress, creating the opportunity for a credible opposition to pose a real challenge to the ruling People’s Democratic Party, which has been in power since the transition to civilian rule in 1999. Tensions in the country are high: Regional economic inequality has exacerbated the long-standing north-south, Christian-Muslim divides. Similarly, President Goodluck Jonathan’s decision to run again has disrupted traditional power-sharing agreements among the regions and religions. Boko Haram continues to threaten security around the country, especially in the north. The post-election violence of 2011 also continues to cast a shadow over the country.

In his brief, Jideofor Adibe—senior lecturer at Nasarawa State University, editor of the academic journal African Renaissance and co-editor of the Journal of African Foreign Affairs—gives an overview of the 2015 Nigerian presidential election, explaining the unique historical context of this diverse country and setting out the top issues on voters’ minds this year.

Read the related paper (PDF) »

Adibe navigates the complex history of overlapping religious, regional and economic divisions within Nigeria and notes that one of the most influential factors in the election will be the power of Jonathan’s incumbency.

Join the conversation via Twitter using #ForesightAfrica.


http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/africa-in-focus/posts/2014/12/30-nigeria-presidential-election

1 Like

Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Nobody: 1:20pm On Jan 20, 2015
Now, let’s talk about the 72-year old man
who was kicked out of power as a military
dictator in 1985. If there is any reason that
makes a Jonathan re-election even more
imperative, it is the fact that Nigeria’s
opposition party, the The All Progressives
Congress(APC), looked at Nigeria and went
into the graves of our nation’s painful past
to exhume their candidate. There is nothing
new that Buhari is bringing to the table in
2015 that Jonathan did not accomplish in
four years . Beyond party affiliation, as a
Nigerian youth, there is something awfully
about the idea of a Buhari presidency. There
are some brands that packaging cannot sell,
no matter the competence, creativity or
innovation of the packager. This is the
dilemma of the Buhari campaign.

1 Like

Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Akpan107(m): 1:20pm On Jan 20, 2015
LordMecuzy:
Okay Na Una be the Nigerian Masses.

Brookings think thank my foot.
We the masses are behide GEJ.
Stop panicking, GEJ has already won.
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by samplegirl(f): 1:20pm On Jan 20, 2015
Niwdog:
By the special grace of God

Gej wil retain that seat til 2019 before a northerner from middle belt wil take over



You mean DAVID MARK?

God bless you.
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Chigold101(m): 1:20pm On Jan 20, 2015
Niwdog:
By the special grace of God

Gej wil retain that seat til 2019
AMEN!
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by dollarlander: 1:21pm On Jan 20, 2015
D9ty7:
Brookings or any fvcking American based newspaper or think-tank can keep making predictions of the election result while some Nairalanders can keep saying Sai Buhari, Sai GEJ or Sai their fathers. I believe a sai Buhari= 1 vote and same goes to Sai GEJ.
I was suprised to see someone arguing about Nigeria's economy and the percentage increase that made it the leading economy in africa and 26th in the world, my question is all these Sai Buhari, Sai GEJ, how many of you don clock 18yrs or age? How many of you don collect your PVC?
Lets stop decieving ourselves, no amount of Sai APC, Sai PDP or Sai kowa can make me change my mind on who I want to vote for, i.e if I want to vote. No amount of propagandas, pictures of Buhari buying arms for Nigeria or GEJ teaching kid bible in church or Osinbajo dancing story for the Gods or Sambo spearheading PDP reconcillatory train will change my mind.
I have decided on who I will vote for, you can't change my mind, even if GEJ or Buhari come to my house to campaign, I have my mind already made up.
With the above, I am also one voter, I don't know about you, but remember, social medias are faceless forums filled with kids and nothing else.

Are you sure? You better face reality we don't need your single vote to install BUHARI. Bara e da sohun. omode lon se e. Olodo rogbodo.
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by ddeola: 1:26pm On Jan 20, 2015
Brooking has failed ! Next...
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Isaacmacdon(m): 1:27pm On Jan 20, 2015
Guidette:
WHY JONATHAN CANT WIN IN 2015
1. He has maligned the core north of Hausa and Fulani labelling them as power hungry. I can see 90% of them voting for APC.

2. He and his cronies have castigated all muslims in Nigeria and enveloped them as blood sucking terrorists. Meanwhile roughly half of the country is Muslim. I see 95% of of them voting for APC.

3. He and his followers then decided to become dumbasses of the century by focusing on rotten smear tactics that have reached a new low. I can see more than 99% of reasonable, literate and intelligent people voting for APC.

4. On a whole Jonathan has underperformed and destroyed critical areas of Nigeria in terms of economy, security, infrastructure,etc. I see patriotic and well meaning Nigerians voting 100% for APC.

Now tell me how Jonathan can win the election.

Sai Buhari!!!
Who b dis wan?? where u released from a dungeon?? Where u blind for many years? Ok let's say u regained Ur sight in 2015... only a sentimental nd preposterous person wud say Jonathan didn't do anything...
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by akulaxx: 1:27pm On Jan 20, 2015
He will retain his office because of the following

###Decree 20 on illegal ship band drug trafficking was another example of Buhari’s tough approach to crime.[54] Section 3 (2) (K) provided that “any person who, without lawful authority deals in, sells, smokes or inhales the drug known as cocaine or other similar drugs, shall be guilty under section 6 (3) (K) of an offence and liable on conviction to suffer death sentence by firing squad.” In the case of Bernard Ogedengebe, the Decree was applied retroactively.He was executed even if at the time of his arrest the crime did not mandate the capital punishment, but had carried a sentence of six months imprisonment.

Benard Ogedengebe died for nothing...
dont take what u cant give,,,
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by D9ty7(m): 1:28pm On Jan 20, 2015
dollarlander:


Are you sure? You better face reality we don't need your single vote to install BUHARI. Bara e da sohun. omode lon se e. Olodo rogbodo.
You have how many PVC if I may ask? Your vote is equals to one in case you don't know.
Mind you, we are in Nigeria, how sure are you that your one vote will count?
You should grow up and talk about yourself and not everybody.
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by AJOT99(m): 1:29pm On Jan 20, 2015
That's the truth!

Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Nobody: 1:30pm On Jan 20, 2015
enzony:


Which one spot?? Nigeria is moving forward. Except you're a lazy person. The economy is enlarging. Think and grow rich with Nigeria under GEJ. Stop hating.
boy u knw I aint havin no beef wit u and am hatin nobody here so u better bounce.
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by axponline: 1:30pm On Jan 20, 2015
This is not research done by the Brookings Institute. Its just an article written by a Nigerian and published by Brookings Institute. The article in question was written by Jideofor Adibe, Senior Lecturer, Nasarawa State University

Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by samplegirl(f): 1:30pm On Jan 20, 2015
thegoodone2:
its difficult to belive but GEJ will retain the postion.

Difficult or not is immaterials. The point is that God has answered the prayers of faithful Nigerians by raising this man GOODLUCK. Transformation is a thing of chain of process.

Can anybody fault the pass mark given to him. You don't change a rotten society overnight thinking you bark others to soldiers to whip people and it is done. You build institutions.

The beauty of this election is that the number of vote the president will get from the so called North will dumbfound Buhari and his cohorts.
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by obayaya(m): 1:30pm On Jan 20, 2015
Guidette:
WHY JONATHAN CANT WIN IN 2015
1. He has maligned the core north of Hausa and Fulani labelling them as power hungry. I can see 90% of them voting for APC.

Maligned the core north by building 125 Almajiri schools and 9 universities in the north? How many people in his cabinet are northerners?

2. He and his cronies have castigated all muslims in Nigeria and enveloped them as blood sucking terrorists. Meanwhile roughly half of the country is Muslim. I see 95% of of them voting for APC.

Rubbish!!! Provide a link where the president castigated Islam or shut the hell up..

3. He and his followers then decided to become dumbasses of the century by focusing on rotten smear tactics that have reached a new low. I can see more than 99% of reasonable, literate and intelligent people voting for APC.

it seems we have different definitions of Dumbass!!! Anybody who supports GEJ becomes illiterate, unreasonable and unintelligent to you APC folks!!! SMH

4. On a whole Jonathan has underperformed and destroyed critical areas of Nigeria in terms of economy, security, infrastructure,etc. I see patriotic and well meaning Nigerians voting 100% for APC.

The best way to judge performance is by making some sort of before/after comparison.. Find time to compare the economy and other indices before GEJ to them Now the GEJ has completed his first term.

I doubt you have the capacity to make such honest comparison.

Now tell me how Jonathan can win the election.


Nigerians will vote him irrespective of what you think tongue

Sai Buhari!!!

Goodluck Nigeria cheesy


Ps: I've warned you to focus on romance and leave politics alone

1 Like

Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Nobody: 1:31pm On Jan 20, 2015
You heard it here first.

This is how I'm going to celebrate when the fedora hat wearing weasel a la GEJ gets his ar.se-whopped next month.

Ode to Michael Bennett and the Seahawks (Wilson, beastmode, LOB et al).

3 Likes

Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by okomogo(m): 1:31pm On Jan 20, 2015
Ladybianca:
Gej will win definitely, cos he is d most credible candidate we have, we re jst waiting to celebrate officially come febuary

We don't want #bloodshedchange
We want continuity
Vote for continuity of d transformation going on

If u dnt ve any reasonable tyn to say dnt quote me
#quotemeanddie
I love you
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by rottenegg: 1:32pm On Jan 20, 2015
D9ty7:
Brookings or any fvcking American based newspaper or think-tank can keep making predictions of the election result while some Nairalanders can keep saying Sai Buhari, Sai GEJ or Sai their fathers. I believe a sai Buhari= 1 vote and same goes to Sai GEJ.
I was suprised to see someone arguing about Nigeria's economy and the percentage increase that made it the leading economy in africa and 26th in the world, my question is all these Sai Buhari, Sai GEJ, how many of you don clock 18yrs or age? How many of you don collect your PVC?
Lets stop decieving ourselves, no amount of Sai APC, Sai PDP or Sai kowa can make me change my mind on who I want to vote for, i.e if I want to vote. No amount of propagandas, pictures of Buhari buying arms for Nigeria or GEJ teaching kid bible in church or Osinbajo dancing story for the Gods or Sambo spearheading PDP reconcillatory train will change my mind.
I have decided on who I will vote for, you can't change my mind, even if GEJ or Buhari come to my house to campaign, I have my mind already made up.
With the above, I am also one voter, I don't know about you, but remember, social medias are faceless forums filled with kids and nothing else.

I am with u all the way. Tired of reading crap online from under aged kids with no pvc!
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Nobody: 1:33pm On Jan 20, 2015
The REAL report:


THE 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: THE ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
Jideofor Adibe, Senior Lecturer, Nasarawa State University; Editor, African Renaissance; Co-editor, Journal of African Foreign Affairs


THE PRIORITY
The 2015 presidential election in Nigeria-the fifth since 1999 when the military handed over power to elected civilians-will be the first time that the opposition will have a realistic chance of wresting power from the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP). All things being equal, it will be a two-horse race between the ruling PDP and the main opposition party, the All Progressive Congress (APC)-the party formed in February 2013 from a merger of three ethnically and regionally based political parties. Before the emergence of the APC, opposition parties were mostly fragmented along regional and ethnic lines, making it impossible for them to mount a credible challenge to the ruling PDP.

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
The emergence of a viable opposition coin- cides with a period of great tension between north and south, arising from the decision of President Goodluck Jonathan to contest the 2011 elections, a decision that has made many northerners feel cheated of their turn in pro- ducing the president and that induced some violence. With President Jonathan, a southern Christian, contesting again and very likely facing a northern Muslim candidate, the elections will have implications not just for north-south relations but also for the survival of the country's democracy.

Nigeria is the continent's biggest economy and most populous country, and so instability in Nigeria could have dire economic impacts for the region. Similarly, with the number of internally displaced people from the Boko Haram conflict estimated at about 650,000 as of August 2014 (The Guardian 2014), a mismanaged election could trigger post-election violence that will exacerbate the refugee crisis both internally and at the regional level. For instance, it has been estimated that the Boko Haram conflict has led to more than 100,000 Nigerians seeking refuge in Niger's Diffa region since the beginning of 2014. It is also estimated that there are 44,000 Nigerian refugees in Cameroon and 2,700 in Chad (Baiyewu 2014). Ironically, the neighboring countries where Nigerians are seeking refuge from the Boko Haram conflict are already quite poor and have severe socioeconomic challenges of their own.

Issues That Will Drive the Election

North-South, Christian-Muslim Divide
The fault lines of region, ethnicity and religion run deep in Nigeria. Virtually every part of the country has an institutionalized memory of injury or feelings of injustice, which they often feel will be best addressed if one of their own wields power at the center, preferably as the president. Similarly, there is a pervasive fear that the president of the country will abuse the powers of his office to privilege his region, ethnicity or religion-if not to punish or deliberately disadvantage others.

To allay fears of domination, most Nigerian political parties have written or unwritten zoning and power rotation arrangements in which the parties agree that key offices and candidates should be produced by designated sections of the country for a certain number of years. For instance, under the PDP's arrangements, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, a Yoruba from the southwest, served for two terms of four years before power was "returned" to the north. The north's "turn" was, however, interrupted after Obasanjo's successor, Umaru Yaradua, a Muslim from Katsina state, died in office in 2010 and was succeed- ed by then-Vice President Jonathan.

This result shortened the north's "turn" in power and extended the south's-frustrating many northerners. In 2011, influential people in the north argued that Jonathan should serve out only Yaradua's remaining first term in office and not contest those presidential elections. However, Jonathan did run and won-triggering post-election violence in the north in which an estimated 800 people lost their lives (Human Rights Watch 2011).

Jonathan's supporters have a contrary argument. For them, in the 39 years between the time the country gained independence in 1960 and the inauguration of the Fourth Republic in 1999, the north ruled the country for about 35 of them and should therefore be patient for that "historical injustice" to be re- dressed first.





North-South Regional Inequalities
Nigeria is sometimes described as a country that runs on two unequal wheels. In 2013, the Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital produced a report titled, "Nigeria Unveiled," which painted the picture of Nigeria's economy as moving on two wheels-a thriving south
with rising income, lower unemployment and better educated citizens, and a much poorer, less educated and struggling north (Atuanya 2013). Based on this economic imbalance, the north's dominance of power before 1999 was justified as a lever to balance the south's economic advantage. Thus, for some, since the south has held the presidency for 12 of the 15 years of civilian rule since 1999 means that the north has lost its leverage in the north-south equation.

Muhammadu Buhari-a Muslim and former military head of state with cult following in the north-was chosen as APC's presidential candidate. The election is therefore likely to witness an intense politicization of the Muslim-Christian divide and the north-south dichotomy in the country, which will add to the already existing tension in the country.

Vice Presidential Running Mate
APC strategists are banking on a combination of votes from the populous northwest (18 million votes), northeast (11 million votes) and southwest (13.5 million votes) for victory. Based on this calculation, the APC, after choosing Buhari from the northwest as its presidential candidate, also chose Professor Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian from from the southwest, as its vice presidential candidate. What remains to be seen, however, is whether Bola Tinubu-a former governor of Lagos State who played a pivotal role in the formation of the APC and is considered to be the party's strongest mobilizer in the southwest-will be very enthusiastic in delivering the battleground southwest to the APC during the elections. Tinubu indicated his interest in being the party's vice presidential candidate but being a Muslim like Buhari, the party's strategists felt that a Muslim-Muslim ticket might offend Christians and cement the
PDP's labeling of the APC as an Islamic party.

Money and the Power of Incumbency
The greatest strength of the ruling PDP is its "power of incumbency," and all the institutional support that goes with it. Not only does it have federal resources to use as patronage, it also controls key institutions like the police, the army and the anti-corruption agencies like the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, which could be used to harass political enemies. Furthermore, of the 36 states in the country, the PDP has 21 governors while APC has 14. The PDP also holds comfortable majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Similarly, money plays a very important role in Nigerian politics-in campaigning, media reach and vote buying (which is a common practice in Nigerian elections). Where the voters are suffi- ciently animated by a certain cause, the role of money in influencing the outcome of an elec- tion will be muted. However, in places where the election is close, the role of money, especially in vote buying and other material inducements such as distribution of bags of rice, wrappers or motorcycles, will become quite important.



Jonathan's Performance in Office
Jonathan's supporters argue that-despite Boko Haram-the country is thriving: The economy continues to grow and-with the re- basing of its GDP-became the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world. Jonathan's supporters also point to his success in containing the Ebola virus, which earned him commendations from countries and institutions around the world. For his critics however, his incompetence is reflected in the high unemployment rate, which worsened from 12 percent in 2006 to 24 percent in 2011 (Premium Times 2013), general insecurity in the country and the deepening suspicion among the different ethnic groups. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo in fact accused Jonathan of being a polarizing figure who promotes clannishness, "For you to allow yourself to be 'possessed,' so to say, to the exclusion of most of the rest of Nigerians as an 'Ijaw man' is a mistake that should never have been allowed to happen," an angry Obasanjo wrote in an 18-page letter to the president (Adoyi 2013).

Opinions on Jonathan's approach to Boko Haram vary wildly as well: His critics cite terrorism as more evidence of his incompetence. On the other hand, his supporters claim that the terrorism is actually evidence of a siege laid on his administration by powerful politicians from the Muslim north aiming for it to fail.

The Electoral Umpire
There is a consensus that the performance of the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has improved in terms of the transparency and logistics of the electoral processes under its current chairman, the northerner Professor Attahiru Jega. How- ever, the INEC continues to be viewed with a great deal of suspicion by all sides.

The APC has many times insinuated that INEC is being manipulated by the PDP-controlled federal government. In fact, the APC declared it had lost confidence in Jega to conduct credible elections shortly after the 2013 gubernatorial elections in Anambra State, which were marred by late or non-arrival of voting materials and which was won by a party allied with the PDP (Olatunji 2013). Jega has already been accused of planning to rig the 2015 election when he suggested creating more polling booths, most of which were to be put in the north (Nigerian Tribune 2014).

Perceptions of the neutrality of INEC will be crucial in the acceptance of the outcome. However, if the country's electoral history is anything to go by, the outcome of the elections will be contentious, irrespective of the opinion of the election observers.

PDP and APC: Strengths and Weaknesses
After suffering a wave of defections to the APC last year, including five of its governors, the PDP seems to have rebounded strongly. In the battleground southwest, for instance, the party won recent governorship elections in Ekiti state and got the governor of Ondo State to defect from the Labor party to the PDP.

The party is especially strong in the south-south (where Jonathan comes from), the southeast and among Christians in the north. Again, while the PDP remains weak in the Muslim north, it has gained new influential members who decamped from the APC including the former governors of Kano State and Borno State. And, of course, the PDP has the power of incumbency.

The APC gets much of its strength from tap- ping into anti-Jonathan sentiments in the Muslim north and grievances among the Yoruba who feel that the Jonathan administration has ignored them in key political appointments. Al- legations of corruption against top PDP officials will be powerful ammunition in the hands of the APC, especially with the choice of Buhari, widely seen as not corrupt, as the party's presidential candidate. The party is, however, a fragile one that seems united only in its quest to wrest the presidency from Jonathan or to have power "returned" to the north. Though the election is expected to be very competitive, the odds still favor President Jonathan.

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE IN 2015

Avoiding a Meltdown
Given the centrality of political power in Nigeria, the election-just like almost all elections in Nigeria-will be highly contentious and the losing side is likely to blame its fate on rigging.
Post-election violence is therefore likely in the north if the APC loses while renewed militancy in the restive Niger Delta is likely if Jonathan does.

A main source of concern will be if the elec- tions become stalemated for a prolonged period or if the scale of post-election violence gets beyond a certain threshold. In these scenarios, we may have to keep an eye on some military adventurists who may be tempted to use the opportunity to cause trouble-especially if the Boko Haram challenge remains intractable.

How can the country avoid the scenario of the 2015 elections leading to the implosion of the country, given how high the stakes are? Despite several more outlandish theories that Nigeria will disintegrate in 2015, chances are that the elections will come and go and the country will remain with its political problems largely unresolved (Adibe 2014). The country is a master at teetering on the precipice: It has survived major crises, including a civil war (1967-1970). Hanging on a cliff without falling over may indeed be the country's comfort zone.

To minimize the chances of the elections leading to chaos and violence, a number of pre- and post-election arrangements are imperative.
These include updating and double checking the electoral register at least one month before the polling day. The electoral commission should also develop robust early warning systems in areas where there are likely to be logistical problems and where pre- or post-election violence are likely to occur. Credible local and international observers must be allowed to monitor the elections to ensure that the entire electoral processes are transparent. Well-trained security personnel should be deployed in volatile areas to prevent or stop outbreaks of violence.

In the longer term, Nigeria should also devise more effective strategies for dealing with the crises in its nation-building processes, which have led to virtually every section of the country feeling marginalized or alienated from the Nigeria project. The country should also continue to explore more effective means of dealing with the Boko Haram terrorism just as it needs to find the necessary political will to embark on reforms that will make the electoral processes less contentious.

The author can be reached at pcjadibe@yahoo. com.
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by onatisi(m): 1:34pm On Jan 20, 2015
This is something many of us have been saying . There is no way buhari can or will win this election and it is 100% certain that apc stronghold in the south west will be broken.

1 Like

Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by kennyjodeci(m): 1:34pm On Jan 20, 2015
philips70:



The unprecedented crowd you have been seeing went there to stone him? Ain't you aware crowd are still chanting Sai Buhari even in GEJ's campaigns? No woman on mother earth have ever witnessed the kind of love that Buhari possesses at the moment. All thanks to GEJ and the Gang.

Oh! Crowd are chanting sai Buhari? Don't worry very soon, just very soon they will start chanting CHAI buhari
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Akpan107(m): 1:38pm On Jan 20, 2015
blackpanda:
If you like you people shld keep relying on ridiculous irrelevant foreign analyzers to tell you useless lies.

Better wake up. Buhari has won this election.

GEJ is and will always be a loser. Nigerians are tired of cluelessness and incompetence.

Of what use is tribe when you are hungry and jobless
If they have said Buhari will win, you would have been Happy.

The Fact is, Buhari will never be president again, nomatter how good is APC.
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Eziachi: 1:39pm On Jan 20, 2015
Before you start getting an erection over the Brookings institute, they are nothing both American version of Ohaneze, Arewa Consultative Council and many others.
Their members bothers right wing republicans sympathisers who see monetary gain and American world empire on every issue.

They were behind Bush when he invaded Iraq, they hated any tax raise for the rich and believe that tax cut for the rich is the way forward. They hate Obama and believed that he is a communist because of Obamacare.
There counterpart in the UK is the Chatham House. Moreover, this wasn't written by Brookings Institution but by someone else but publish on their website.
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Elculio: 1:39pm On Jan 20, 2015
blackpanda:
If you like you people shld keep relying on ridiculous irrelevant foreign analyzers to tell you useless lies.

Better wake up. Buhari has won this election.

GEJ is and will always be a loser. Nigerians are tired of cluelessness and incompetence.

Of what use is tribe when you are hungry and jobless

So because their analyses/predictions did not favou your preferred candidate and party, they are ridiculous and irrelevants. The problem with mos APC/Buhari supporters is that they cannot tolerate contrary opinions. They want every prediction andanalysis to always favour them.
Learn to accommodate contrary opinions.
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Splashme: 1:40pm On Jan 20, 2015
[size=20pt]GEJ till 2019[/size]
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by Louislewis: 1:41pm On Jan 20, 2015
[size=24pt]This is the simple truth, nothing but, the truth.[/size]
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by ikotec: 1:41pm On Jan 20, 2015
YOU ALWAYS END UP LIKE UR MENTOR U MORE OF JONA NOW. DOES GUYS READ SOME POLITICAL SCIENCE BOOKS AND CAME UP WITH THAT. TO GET THE TRUE PICTURE, RANDOMLY ASK PPL WT THEY THINK ABOUT JONA. ANS CLUELESS INEPT ETC. i hv a test that non hv passed. TRY SPEAKING GOOD ON jona WITHOUT LIEING OR SOUNDING ILLOGICAL. RENTED NLANDERS GIVE THIS A TRY
BUHARI ALL D WAY
Re: Jonathan Will Win, APC Is A Fragile Anti-Jonathan Setup —Brookings by sucess001(m): 1:41pm On Jan 20, 2015
[size=20pt]

This is no think thank. it doesnt even have to do with the US....this was the intro on the report;

ABOUT THE BROOKINGS AFRICA GROWTH INITIATIVE
For Africa to achieve transformative progress, policy solutions must come from African sources. The Africa
Growth Initiative brings together African scholars to provide policymakers with high-quality research,
expertise and innovative solutions that promote Africa’s economic development. The Initiative also
collaborates with research partners in the region to raise the African voice in global policy debates on
Africa. Our mission is to deliver research from an African perspective that informs sound policy, creating
sustained economic growth and development for the people of Africa.



So how does an opinion by an african lecturer in nasarawa University represent the podsition of the US Government?

how low will the PDP stoop in their self inflicted desperation?[/size]

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (Reply)

Osinbajo At The 55th Anniversary Of NBA (Pics) / Money Looted In 8yrs Enough To Pay Every Nigerian N732,000, Says PSC Commissione / Akin Alabi Files House Motion To Dissolve SARS

(Go Up)

Sections: politics (1) business autos (1) jobs (1) career education (1) romance computers phones travel sports fashion health
religion celebs tv-movies music-radio literature webmasters programming techmarket

Links: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Nairaland - Copyright © 2005 - 2024 Oluwaseun Osewa. All rights reserved. See How To Advertise. 123
Disclaimer: Every Nairaland member is solely responsible for anything that he/she posts or uploads on Nairaland.