Norwichsailor:

Lol. One state in the north will cancle everything obi will gather in the ss. Same with se. He needs to work hard in the north

:DI hope u dey sail with Norwich to relegation

Norwichsailor:

Jonathan had the entire south behind him. Does obi have the entire south behind him? Smh

It still doesn't remove the fact that the northern vote are not powerful as you made it look ,the even fear our vote more than we fear theirs the middle belt are the people who makes the difference between Northern and southern vote with what I am seeing middle belt are with obi

Thebadpolitican:


It still doesn't remove the fact that the northern vote are not powerful as you made it look ,the even fear our vote more than we fear theirs the middle belt are the people who makes the difference between Northern and southern vote with what I am seeing middle belt are with obi

The middle belt will definitely share votes. It is large, you have kwara and okun yorubas in kogi and we know where they'll vote naturally, you have Taraba, benue and other Christian tribes or states that could go for obi and then some Muslim ethnicities that would prefer to vote like the core North. Think bro

nameo:


But this time, thier(upper north) votes will be definitely spilt, into 3: Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso(except Kwankwaso does not contests).

Each of those three guys will get votes in the millions in the upper north and peter Obi will get just a little.

But you see tbe SE: Peter Obi will get block votes there. Win the SS with varying degrees. And get huge votes across SW and NC.

You gerrit??

Unless states like anambra and imo will churn out 1m votes plus and other Eastern states showing promise then the block votes from there won't change anything outside that outcome

sosanova:

Forget that political naive clown
The only block Vote Tinubu will get is coming from the South West
If he thinks south east and south South will vote Tinubu he needs to get his head checked.
Okowa south South Factor will push votes for Atiku in the South South.
Obi will take South East
Obi takes 60% of South South while Atiku takes 40% or split it 50-50 with Atiku.
Atiku will take North East, 3 of the six states in the North East are controlled by PDP Governors, Bauchi, Adamawa and Taraba.

Your sitting in Lagos doing analysis... Okowa is a paper weight politician in the south South right now, Atiku can not get more than 25% in the south South if elections are held tomorrow. You guys should keep analysing nonsense.

Norwichsailor:

The middle belt will definitely share votes. It is large, you have kwara and okun yorubas in kogi and we know where they'll vote naturally, you have Taraba, benue and other Christian tribes or states that could go for obi and then some Muslim ethnicities that would prefer to vote like the core North. Think bro

There is no sharing of vote in the middlebelt voting is not always towards religious line obi will take upon a Muslim vp that would be enough to settle the Muslim vote

Think bro

Milljack:
Against an almighty buhari in the north and an incumbent gov in Adamawa Atiku defeated buhari.. also in taraba.. contesting against a bola tinubu who's literally not a match for Atiku up north let's be realistic Atiku will floor tinubu handsdown.ignore all this APC GOVERNOR'S this n that ...south east & south has 11 state combined.. take it or leave it tinubu won't win one out of 11 South South/south east.. forget the media noise Atiku will sweep the 6 south south State..all PDP GOVERNOR'S in d zone are with okowa except wike as of now..in the south east take it or leave it obi can't win the 5 state at least 2/3/4...in the south west PDP will gather reasonable votes as compared to tinubu in sout South and south east... Atiku will sweep North East except borno n yobe depending on APC running mate

I don't know why you people keep deceiving yourselves about Atiku winning the south South, in 2019 maybe, but if elections are held tomorrow Atiku will not get more than 25% there going by the current pulse...and please don't start analysing what I don't know if your not from the south South or currently live there.

Norwichsailor:

You can make your point without throwing tantrums.
Jonathan had the unquestionable loyalty of the entire South. Does obi enjoy the same support from the 3 geopolitical zones of the South? Big no
So where the votes go come from to match Northern votes, mind u the core North doesn't split votes, if they're voting tinubu they will do it overwhelmingly and if they're voting atiku same applies. So think before typing

Your very wrong about north not splitting votes, maybe in past elections and that's northwest, Kwankwaso will split north west votes, he will defeat APC in Kano.

VERDA:


Your sitting in Lagos doing analysis... Okowa is a paper weight politician in the south South right now, Atiku can not get more than 25% in the south South if elections are held tomorrow. You guys should keep analysing nonsense.

That his analysis is the most unconnected and bias analysis that I have ever read in NL

Peacecore:
That his analysis is the most unconnected and bias analysis that I have ever read in NL

Honestly....

princdebola201:
thrash
atiku lost his polling unit to Buhari in adamawa. Atiku won Adamawa with less than 60k votes. Buhari won Atiku will over 900k votes in kastina.

We cant ignore the governors because They own state structure,atiku, tinubu,obi cant be present in 36states of the federation, so it is the gov that is going to work for emergence of his party

Atiku cant win any zone in north.
And his block votes in south has been eaten in SS/SE by peter obi.
No 40% votes in south west this time around cos Tinubu will deliver sw with landslide.

Atiku knows he stands no chance in 2023 thats why he is not taking it too serious

Please shut up. All these indomie children writing runbish and calling it analysis. Pls shut up

W be like say it is all over 4 Mr Atiku. I hope that parley went well in port harcourt with d APC Governors.

You called someone naive and type this nonsense? So apc will not see any vote in south south?

sosanova:

Forget that political naive clown
The only block Vote Tinubu will get is coming from the South West
If he thinks south east and south South will vote Tinubu he needs to get his head checked.
Okowa south South Factor will push votes for Atiku in the South South.
Obi will take South East
Obi takes 60% of South South while Atiku takes 40% or split it 50-50 with Atiku.
Atiku will take North East, 3 of the six states in the North East are controlled by PDP Governors, Bauchi, Adamawa and Taraba.

Maybe you should ask Edo people how far now?

Thebadpolitican:



You use Donald trump in the case of American
And used Nigerian to judge is election hahaha

Why didn't you use Americans to judge Donald trump election

Lagos has sold its souls to tinubu only obi can free them from such grip

Use the case of Edo nor b Lagos election to judge the Powerful tinubu,why couldn't he put is person there

You are right bro, Edo people eye don clear now, obaseki the pepper both pdp and the Edo people at large

Peacecore:
If u are good politician u should know that Oshiomole was sabotaged in Edo by Aso rock powers, even Buhari bcoz they thought that it's one of the ways of stopping Tinubu from clinching APC ticket. U can recall that Obaseki met with Buhari where they were seen in a friendly gesture before his defection. Oshiomole was also removed from seat to pave way for Obaseki. John Oyegun openly worked for Obaseki thereby showing what that was being cooked in Aso rock. I bet u, if Oshiomole was on seat as APC chairman, Obaseki rule as Edo governor would've been a story by now. Forget this Edo that u people normally reference, many things happened that u didn't know. Only an insider can tell u about it. Have u seen Obaseki criticising Buhari, Amechi n co after the election? Calm down, politics is not an emotional game.

Benaddy:
You are right bro, Edo people eye don clear now, obaseki the pepper both pdp and the Edo people at large

He's now a partyless man sef. Buhari betrayed Oshiomole so much.

Keep getting carried away with social media.

The North does little social media with politics. Atiku social media campaigners were mostly southerners who are either supporting Obi or Tinubu at this time, but make no mistake, the offline election will prove he is still PDP candidate and no push over. The pres. Election is between APC and PDP. Atiku will lose more southern votes and gain Northern votes compared to 2019. Overall he will lose in 2023. In 8 months this will be unravelled.

Thebadpolitican:


The northern vote is not needed if election is to be held today obi would still be the winner

Because the northern vote would be shared between tinubu, atiku and kwankwaso
Obi will take middle belt,ss and Se

Tinubu will be left with SW

Explain the bolded

don’t mind them with their beer parlor analysis because if elections are based on that simplistic view, politicians need not campaign to win in democracy, but the fact on ground is that Atedo Peterside, CEO of Stanbic IBTC has an non political NGO that has registered around 30 million young people already.That’s the highest in the history of Nigeria. Mind you in history of Democratic elections winning margin has never been above that 3 million.You already know who the young people are rooting for in this elections. The biggest fear most genuine PO supporters have today is not about the elections but about something happening to him before the elections but God forbid