Dadisoft:


My brother leave sentiment it will be impossible for Obi to win all south east because all of them are either PDP or APC strong hold. Vote go dey seriously shared for that region between LP, PDP and APC which go be very bad disadvantage for Obi. Even if Obi manage win anyhow, the difference no go dey so much compared to the way PDP and APC go stretch LP for other regions in Nigeria especially for North.
In as much as people really love Obi, the bitter truth be say e go hard for Peter Obi to win this election no matter what.

Do you see me displaying sentiments...?

Obi will win all SE states by 80% and above., nothing can change that..

ImmaculateJOE:

Do you see me displaying sentiments...?

Obi will win all SE states by 80% and above., nothing can change that..

Calling 80% is sentiment because I dey clear you say e go hard to get 80% from states that are governed by PDP or APC. E be like say you no even know how election dey work for Nigeria. For example you no get or belong to any political party in your state. Now either Apc or PDP get thousands of members so people like you wey no dey political parties can vote freely any of your choice. Now e be the responsibility of those wey dey political parties to mobilize in their own capacity and LP no get that strong capacity in the whole SE. Try imagine why crowd always dey political rallies whether them say na hired or not. That is the same way them dey mobilize on election day. The same crowd you see voting LP will be almost same or more voting PDP and APC.

Dadisoft:


Calling 80% is sentiment because I dey clear you say e go hard to get 80% from states that are governed by PDP or APC. E be like say you no even know how election dey work for Nigeria. For example you no get or belong to any political party in your state. Now either Apc or PDP get thousands of members so people like you wey no dey political parties can vote freely any of your choice. Now e be the responsibility of those wey dey political parties to mobilize in their own capacity and LP no get that strong capacity in the whole SE. Try imagine why crowd always dey political rallies whether them say na hired or not. That is the same way them dey mobilize on election day. The same crowd you see voting LP will be almost same or more voting PDP and APC.

Judging by your arguments.
Check out these election results of the past.
2015, Rivers state was governed by an APC govt, but gej got over 98% of votes. Imo governed by apc, gej got over 80%, Anambra governed by APGA, gej got more than 98%.. Same thing in Edo...

Kastina was governed by PDP but pmb got over 90%, same thing in Bauchi, Kaduna, Gombe and many others..

You may also argue that the both parties had good supporters in the above mentioned states.. But what about 2011, whem PMB contested with little know CPC but got over 70% votes in all the states of NW&NE except Adamawa, Taraba and Kaduna..?

ImmaculateJOE:

Judging by your arguments.
Check out these election results of the past.
2015, Rivers state was governed by an APC govt, but gej got over 98% of votes. Imo governed by apc, gej got over 80%, Anambra governed by APGA, gej got more than 98%.. Same thing in Edo...

Kastina was governed by PDP but pmb got over 90%, same thing in Bauchi, Kaduna, Gombe and many others..

You may also argue that the both parties had good supporters in the above mentioned states.. But what about 2011, whem PMB contested with little know CPC but got over 70% votes in all the states of NW&NE except Adamawa, Taraba and Kaduna..?

Baba that is still exactly what I'm talking about. It is all about the ruling party and the major opposition party that have their members strong in every state as governors, senators, house of rep local government etc. I didn't say it is impossible for Obi to win south east, but I'm tell you it will be hard for him to get 80% as you claim.

ImmaculateJOE:

Judging by your arguments.
Check out these election results of the past.
2015, Rivers state was governed by an APC govt, but gej got over 98% of votes. Imo governed by apc, gej got over 80%, Anambra governed by APGA, gej got more than 98%.. Same thing in Edo...

Kastina was governed by PDP but pmb got over 90%, same thing in Bauchi, Kaduna, Gombe and many others..

You may also argue that the both parties had good supporters in the above mentioned states.. But what about 2011, whem PMB contested with little know CPC but got over 70% votes in all the states of NW&NE except Adamawa, Taraba and Kaduna..?

Less I forget that CPC you mentioned was like a major opposition party to PDP as at then which was why Tinubu came up with the plan to merge with them. CPC was so much well more known as at then my brother.

Dadisoft:


Less I forget that CPC you mentioned was like a major opposition party to PDP as at then which was why Tinubu came up with the plan to merge with them. CPC was so much well more known as at then my brother.

Not True Sir..
As at 2011 elections, CPC had no governor.. The opposition party then was ACN, which had over 6 governors.. Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti and Edo.. After ACN the next opposition party then was ANPP controlling Borno, Yobe, Zamfara, and Kano, after that comes APGA controlling Anambra and Imo.. CPC was a distant 4th opposition party..

You can verify this. CPC, after the election only won just one guber seat, if I'm not mistaken. Nasarawa.

Upon all these, Buhari came 2nd with a little known CPC and pulled over 12 million votes.
Obi can also pull over 10 million votes with LP..

Goodnews is that, there is more formidable candidates this time around, unlike 2011, this will make the north's votes highly divided.. Obi has a chance..

@garfied1 correct me, If I'm wrong..

Dadisoft:


Baba that is still exactly what I'm talking about. It is all about the ruling party and the major opposition party that have their members strong in every state as governors, senators, house of rep local government etc. I didn't say it is impossible for Obi to win south east, but I'm tell you it will be hard for him to get 80% as you claim.

But you are saying that Obi cannot win the whole SE states, which brought this argument..

Obidient4life2:

I am happy to hear that. My stance is how many of them registered their PVC in South East?

They are many,you and I don't have the statistics

ImmaculateJOE:

Obi can't win Nasarawa, it's practically impossible.. For Kaduna, he should focus on Southern Kaduna.. I will advice they hold their rally in Kafanchan, forget Kaduna city..

States to win: 5SE, Crs, Rivers, Edo, Delta, Benue, Plateau, FCT, Kaduna....

AKS, Taraba is also winnable..

Obi won't and can't win any state out of south east.
He won't win even a ward in the entire 19 northern state.

garfield1:


I never said obi will finish 4th.lowest he wi finsish is 2nd,tinubu will damage him in core north

There is no way Obi will finish 2nd. Max na 3rd

raumdeuter:


There is no way Obi will finish 2nd. Max na 3rd

With obi winning se massively and winning atiku in nc,he will take 2nd

tuniski:

Obi won't and can't win any state out of south east.
He won't win even a ward in the entire 19 northern state.

Obi has won benue already.he stands a chance of winning plateau,fct.he will win southern Kaduna,some lgas in nasarawa,kogi,taraba

garfield1:



With obi winning se massively and winning atiku in nc,he will take 2nd

Entire North of 19 states max Obi will win 2 which is being very generous

Atiku can clear 11 of those Northern states easily

19 Northern states Atiku 11 Tinubu 7 Obi 1

raumdeuter:


Entire North of 19 states max Obi will win 2 which is being very generous

Atiku can clear 11 of those Northern states easily

19 Northern states Atiku 11 Tinubu 7 Obi 1

I think tinubu is more likely to win more northern states than atiku.in nw,atiku is only sure of sokoto.tinubu is sure of kebbi and zamfara.tinubu is sure of beating atiku in kano.the rest is 50 50..
In ne,atiku is sure of taraba and Adamawa.tinubu has yobe and borno.the rest are tight.in nc,tinubu has kwara and kogi.obi has benue and plateau.atiku is not sure of any state so you see,worst case is atiku 8 tinubu 8,obi 2,kwankwaso 1

raumdeuter:


Entire North of 19 states max Obi will win 2 which is being very generous

Atiku can clear 11 of those Northern states easily

19 Northern states Atiku 11 Tinubu 7 Obi 1

Mention the 11 northern states Atiku will win, and that of Tinubu, Obu and Kwankwoso..

garfield1:


I think tinubu is more likely to win more northern states than atiku.in nw,atiku is only sure of sokoto.tinubu is sure of kebbi and zamfara.tinubu is sure of beating atiku in kano.the rest is 50 50..
In ne,atiku is sure of taraba and Adamawa.tinubu has yobe and borno.the rest are tight.in nc,tinubu has kwara and kogi.obi has benue and plateau.atiku is not sure of any state so you see,worst case is atiku 8 tinubu 8,obi 2,kwankwaso 1

NC:
Benue:Obi
Kogi: Tinibu
Kwara:Tinibu
Nasarawa:Tinibu/Atiku/Obi
Niger:Tinibu/Atiku
Plateau:Obi
FCT: Obi

NE..
Adamawa:Atiku
Bauchi:Atiku/Kwanakwoso
Borno:Tinibu
Gombe:Atiku
Taraba:Atiku
Yobe:Tinibu

NW..
Jigawa:Kwankwoso/Atiku
Kaduna:Obi/Tinibu
Kano:Kwankwoso
Kastina:Tinibu/Atiku
Kebbi: Tinibu/Atiku
Sokoto:Atiku
Zamfara:Tinibu

Total: Tinibu 5-10 states, Atiku 5-11 states, Kwankwoso 1-3 states and Obi 3-5 states..

ImmaculateJOE:

NC:
Benue:Obi
Kogi: Tinibu
Kwara:Tinibu
Nasarawa:Tinibu/Atiku/Obi
Niger:Tinibu/Atiku
Plateau:Obi
FCT: Obi

NE..
Adamawa:Atiku
Bauchi:Atiku/Kwanakwoso
Borno:Tinibu
Gombe:Atiku
Taraba:Atiku
Yobe:Tinibu

NW..
Jigawa:Kwankwoso/Atiku
Kaduna:Obi/Tinibu
Kano:Kwankwoso
Kastina:Tinibu/Atiku
Kebbi: Tinibu/Atiku
Sokoto:Atiku
Zamfara:Tinibu

Total: Tinibu 5-10 states, Atiku 5-11 states, Kwankwoso 1-3 states and Obi 3-5 states..

I think fct and plateau is between the three just like nasarawa but in plateau south,it is apc.in plateau central, dariye has endorsed tinubu,kanam and kamke are apc..in plateau north apart from jos north,the rest will be pdp/lp
In fct,it is tight.it will go like lagos with most igbos voting obi...


There is no nw state that tinubu cannot win..wamakko is making waves in sokoto.jigawa is between the three.atiku has lost out in Kaduna...

In ne,I think gombe is between tinubu and atiku but tinubu has a slight advantage due to division in pdp and the gov and sen goje are apc.bauchi is between the three but it seems gov bala and atiku people are quarrelling..
Taraba is not sure for atiku.many xtians there for obi.the popular sen bwacha and hon shiddi are pro tinubu.

garfield1:


I think tinubu is more likely to win more northern states than atiku.in nw,atiku is only sure of sokoto.tinubu is sure of kebbi and zamfara.tinubu is sure of beating atiku in kano.the rest is 50 50..
In ne,atiku is sure of taraba and Adamawa.tinubu has yobe and borno.the rest are tight.in nc,tinubu has kwara and kogi.obi has benue and plateau.atiku is not sure of any state so you see,worst case is atiku 8 tinubu 8,obi 2,kwankwaso 1

ImmaculateJOE:

Mention the 11 northern states Atiku will win, and that of Tinubu, Obu and Kwankwoso..

Atiku - Bauchi Gombe Taraba Adamawa Sokoto Plateau Kaduna Kebbi Jigawa FCT

Tinubu - Yobe Borno Zamfara Katsina Kwara Kogi Niger

Obi - Benue ??

Kwankwanso Kano

garfield1:


I think fct and plateau is between the three just like nasarawa but in plateau south,it is apc.in plateau central, dariye has endorsed tinubu,kanam and kamke are apc..in plateau north apart from jos north,the rest will be pdp/lp
In fct,it is tight.it will go like lagos with most igbos voting obi...


There is no nw state that tinubu cannot win..wamakko is making waves in sokoto.jigawa is between the three.atiku has lost out in Kaduna...

In ne,I think gombe is between tinubu and atiku but tinubu has a slight advantage due to division in pdp and the gov and sen goje are apc.bauchi is between the three but it seems gov bala and atiku people are quarrelling..
Taraba is not sure for atiku.many xtians there for obi.the popular sen bwacha and hon shiddi are pro tinubu.

Which 3 in Bauchi

garfield1:


Obi has won benue already.he stands a chance of winning plateau,fct.he will win southern Kaduna,some lgas in nasarawa,kogi,taraba

Is southern Kaduna a state?
Many Obidient would be heartbroken come February. They are banking on northern christains. Over 75% of northern christains are aligned to PDP. Igbos are generally the least voting folks anywhere in Nigeria they only make loud noises. Era of writing results are over and the votes return in the SE fell drastically reflecting their true voters turnout during elections.

raumdeuter:


Atiku - Bauchi Gombe Taraba Adamawa Sokoto Plateau Kaduna Kebbi Jigawa FCT

Tinubu - Yobe Borno Zamfara Katsina Kwara Kogi Niger

Obi - Benue ??

Kwankwanso Kano

Abegi take benue away from obi. Even if Ortom endorses him he can't win benue.

Garfield1 is making me to laugh. Is good you know Nigeria LGA & strong politicians but your biased affinity for Tinubu is embarassing. We are 2 months away. I go remind you that politics is not theory but practicals

slivertongue:
2023 is drawing closer by the day. Atiku will lead in the North Obi will lead in the South... It's a matter of who gets more outside his region. The dynamics of previous elections are near absent. No inheritance or inherited votes or popularity. 'Jiki magayi ne'.

oga with what happened in Owerri, obi couldn't pull enough croud to convince me, he may likely not do well in some Igbo states

Where will Obi get 10 million votes from?
From the 5% IPOB population?

raumdeuter:


Which 3 in Bauchi

Nnpp

raumdeuter:


Atiku - Bauchi Gombe Taraba Adamawa Sokoto Plateau Kaduna Kebbi Jigawa FCT

Tinubu - Yobe Borno Zamfara Katsina Kwara Kogi Niger

Obi - Benue ??

Kwankwanso Kano

No.tinubu has the edge in gombe while atiku has the edge in bauchi.taraba is very dicey,I'll explain later.
Aliero is no more on the ballot so I dont sww atiku winning kebbi.atiju can't win kad,obi and nnpp has killed his chances.tinubu has the edge in plateau.jigawa is dicey,atiku can't win fct.its obi OE tinubu.honestly,the only sure state for atiku is Adamawa and sokoto but tinubu will get up to 40% there

b4 PDP primaries i opined dat atiku wil contest &win then go ahead 2win majority of northern votes. d south aint united

slivertongue:
b4 PDP primaries i opined dat atiku wil contest &win then go ahead 2win majority of northern votes. d south aint united

North is divided too

garfield1:


No.tinubu has the edge in gombe while atiku has the edge in bauchi.taraba is very dicey,I'll explain later.
Aliero is no more on the ballot so I dont sww atiku winning kebbi.atiju can't win kad,obi and nnpp has killed his chances.tinubu has the edge in plateau.jigawa is dicey,atiku can't win fct.its obi OE tinubu.honestly,the only sure state for atiku is Adamawa and sokoto but tinubu will get up to 40% there

Garfield1 you have finally lost it. No need reading your post/analysis. You lost it finally

raumdeuter:


Entire North of 19 states max Obi will win 2 which is being very generous

Atiku can clear 11 of those Northern states easily

19 Northern states Atiku 11 Tinubu 7 Obi 1

Obi cannot win a ward let alone an LGA before mentioning a state in the entire 19 northern states plus FCT.
If he gets 50k votes in any northern state that would be over achievement!

majole:


Garfield1 you have finally lost it. No need reading your post/analysis. You lost it finally

If I remember,you gave atiku a narrow northern win.atiku 40% tinubu 35% kwankwaso 20% obi 5%.then tinubu will smash him in sw...cc raumdeuter

tuniski:

Obi cannot win a ward let alone an LGA before mentioning a state in the entire 19 northern states plus FCT.
If he gets 50k votes in any northern state that would be over achievement!

Obi has won benue