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Chubhie:Maybe Boko Haram bombed your brain too. I don't have much regard for Buhari but this report relates to 2014. Who was president last year? |
Everyday, thousands of Nigerians die due to the poor state of governance, a poor state which the likes of Ms Madueke callously contributed to. Deaths result from inadequate healthcare, security and infrastructure which government officials like her are responsible for. At least she has the good fortune of affording world-class health care in the UK, millions of Nigerians will see their loved ones perish because they cannot afford same. Spare your tears for those more deserving than her. We do need her alive though as I fear the truth of the "missing" $20bn will be conveniently buried with her corpse. This is because despite my view of her as a looter, I do not believe anything remotely near that sum was stolen by her. If she's alive, we can recover more easily what she stole whilst exposing the fatuity of the phantom $20bn sum. |
smuth:My on view on this is much more nuanced. I believe she's a thief, admittedly my belief stems from hearsay in the absence of any official confirmation of her theft. But even thieves can have powerful enemies. The reason we know about Fashola's profligate cheque signing abilities is his powerful enemies. Same logic applies to Ms Madueke. Saying that and as I have written ad nauseam, she did not steal $20bn. That was a story designed to titillate the naive. Anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Nigeria's revenue profile would have instantly realised that it was an implausible allegation. In a sense, because most people know that the Nigerian ruling class is dominated by kleptocrats and that we have become numbed to stories of theft, it becomes imperative in corruption allegations to exaggerate the quantum of theft to score political points. |
Still waiting for this to happen. That GEJ deemed it justifiable to operate a fleet of 9 jets is callous and insane. |
maupe:It's one of the most underwhelming ministerial appointments I can think of for such a sensitive position and at such a sensitive time for the economy. My preference would have been someone like Ayo Teriba or a Bayo Ogunlesi. Someone who is intellectually sound and commands respect. To think that out of all the talented people we have in that country, it's this Kemi Adeosun that we went for beggars belief. |
This development was predictable and predicted. When PDP and APC e-warriors were claiming credit for the return of refineries to full production a few months ago, I had this to say: Anything you hear from NNPC should be taken with a pinch of salt. What makes me laugh is that at the heart of this story, I suspect APC & PDP e-warriors are both wrong. It's likely that the 4 refineries have not and will not make substantial increases in production but APC & PDP e-warriors are too eager to bask in what they think are accomplishments.https://www.nairaland.com/2496853/how-jonathan-transformed-refineries-setting/5#36538750 |
My first reaction to this was that it is a classic case of Nigerian journalists misquoting a person. I am still anticipating a clarification from Osinbajo at some point. I suspect what he actually said was 5 trillion judging from the claim that 2 trillion, representing 40 percent of the budget, would be allocated towards capital expenditure. |
Jesusloveyou:Sanusi claimed that $20bn was missing. The figure was derived from the difference between total oil sales and the amount remitted to the FG. By that logic, $3bn is now missing and should be accounted for. I alluded to Sanusi's mischief in an earlier post: The truth of the missing $20bn is hiding in plain sight. If I recall correctly, the figure was derived from the difference between total NNPC oil export proceeds and the amount remitted to the federation account. The $20bn will include NNPC joint venture commitment and its operational costs which it deducted before remitting the balance of the proceeds. So most of it is not actually stolen and I know Sanusi was being disingenuous. He did at one point go for the even more sensational figure of $49bn which he calculated by multiplying crude oil prices by number of barrels produced. |
LastSurvivor:Mama Peace was brain dead herself but she's right in one sense: Buhari lacks the intellect required for such a leadership role. The problem is that the political system in Nigeria generates a cast of underwhelming candidates. Between GEJ and Buhari, you can see why people would want to give the latter a chance. |
Purej:I think the CBN governor reflects a tendency in policy making circles in Nigeria to resort to state intervention with the price setting function of the market. Also, the CBN is doing the president's bidding in so far as the president has come out against Naira devaluation. Expect these restrictions to stay put for years as the government obstinately refuses to come to grips with reality. |
PDP was a gang of thieves but to say they destroyed Nigeria is the sort of brain dead inanity that can only be uttered by someone too young to remember or too intellectually incurious to know the state of Nigeria in 1999. |
Does anyone recall all the inane talk of plugging loopholes? What is remarkable is that reported revenue continues to decline. It's not just an oil story as much of the decline is occurring in non-oil revenue. These are really bleak times. |
The truth of the missing $20bn is hiding in plain sight. If I recall correctly, the figure was derived from the difference between total NNPC oil export proceeds and the amount remitted to the federation account. The $20bn will include NNPC joint venture commitment and its operational costs which it deducted before remitting the balance of the proceeds. So most of it is not actually stolen and I know Sanusi was being disingenuous. He did at one point go for the even more sensational figure of $49bn which he calculated by multiplying crude oil prices by number of barrels produced. That's not to say that the NNPC was not corrupt. It is a monstrously corrupt organisation, even more so when Madueke was minister. I think the practice of deducting from proceeds before remitting leaves room for shady dealings and ought to stopped. Ultimately, NNPC should be broken and privatised, partially at least. As for the "missing" $20bn, there is no such amount missing for the period in question. |
One of the things people forget about the effects of polygamy is gender imbalance in the marriage market. Assuming roughly equal ratios of adult males to females in societies, in polygamous societies the wealthier men will marry multiple wives leaving the poorest men, those at the bottom of wealth/income distribution with no women to marry. For instance, a society with 1 million men and 1 million women may see the richest 10% of men take 4 wives each, i.e., 100 thousand men may marry 400 thousand women leaving the remaining 900 thousand men with 600 thousand women to choose from. If the pattern of the wealthier men marrying more wives took place across the income distribution, the poorest men will be left with no wives. This often creates a society where there are huge pools of poor men with little or no stake in society. A recipe for violence as one sees with Boko Haram and its ilk. Polygamy made sense in ancient warlike societies where men often died in battle leaving the ratio of unmarried women to unmarried men extremely high. In the modern setting, there is little of value that polygamy offers. |
OnReflection:To be fair to the OP, the Lugandans mean percentage over 3 years is lower than that of his Igbo "master race." I suspect what this tells us, something we already know, is that Igbos are disproportionately driven to succeed. Hence, Igbos are overrepresented in drug trafficking and academic success. |
989900:Re your first question, assuming no government intervention, exchange rates are a product of demand and supply. The Naira is facing pressure because there is less forex coming in due to the fall in oil prices. The CBN's actions ensure that even less forex will come in and, therefore, makes matters worse. When the supply of anything is low, if demand does not adjust immediately, that thing becomes more expensive. By becoming more expensive, demand is forced to adjust. If the government intervenes to ensure that the scarce thing is obtainable at a fixed price, demand would not adjust easily. Of course, there are no free lunches in economics so the government can only fix price at great costs to it and,usually, with the by-product that a booming black market is created. Hence, the divergence between the official Naira rate and the parallel Naira rate, the latter is the black market and will grow bigger the longer the government maintains its attempt to fix a price. Regarding your second and third questions, I don't know the percentages. I do believe that in an optimal economic environment, we should not import much of those items. However, the CBN's actions make it cheaper to import goods and therefore ensures that we continue to import things we ought not to import. I know the CBN disclosed a list of items it would no longer provide the forex for importers to import. However, such a ham-fisted way of curbing demand creates a lucrative market in contraband goods, excellent if you are transporter in Cotonou for instance. The best way to curb demand is through the price mechanism not by government fiat. As for your links, I will try and read these later. As far remaining apolitical is concerned, I have to say that I have been a user of Nairaland for 9 years and its remarkable how it's evolved from a forum where people genuinely demanded better governance to one where partisan posters spend all day making tendentious arguments. My view now is my view for the last 9 years - Nigeria is plagued by a political system that almost guarantees inept political leaders. Buhari will prove to be a bad leader just as GEJ, Yar'Adua, OBJ, et al. Those who can't see this are either being paid to be obtuse or are so desperate to believe that salvation is afoot that they have been rendered utterly delusional. |
The article is fundamentally incoherent. It claims that the official exchange rate reflects the real value of the Naira but then the article is an ode to the "wisdom" of the CBN's interventionist policy to keep the Naira within the official peg. The whole raison d'etre of CBN intervention is to stop the Naira from reflecting its real value, i.e, a lower exchange rate to the dollar. This issue has been flogged to death in my previous posts but just for emphasis I would reiterate some salient points. One needs to ask the fundamental question: what purpose does maintaining a higher exchange rate actually serve? 197 Naira to $1 allows us to buy foreign goods and services at a cheaper rate than would be the case at 240 Naira to $1 for instance. Hence, the CBN's policy makes it cheaper to import and one can say that the argument against devaluation is an argument for cheaper imports. This brings us to the next point: why is it in the national interest for the government to assist in lowering import costs? The usual retort is that this helps maintain a lid on inflation. The argument goes that as Nigeria is import dependent, the government ought to intervene to keep imports cheap. But if the root cause of the problem is import dependency, Nigeria will never be weaned from this dependency if it insists on intervening to keep imports cheap. Higher import costs is the natural way to curb demand for imports. You might say higher import costs will lead to loss of jobs but imports also costs jobs - remember all those textile factories in the North that had to close down due to cheaper imports from China? This brings me to the practical issue: how would CBN intervention work in practice? The irony is that the CBN's intervention will be ineffective over the long run. If oil prices and, therefore, dollar revenue remain subdued, the Naira will continue facing downward pressure. The CBN's intervention will require either that it depletes the foreign reserves and or restrict access to the dollar. Because foreign reserves are insufficient, it is more likely to restrict access to forex. In doing so, we will see an exacerbation of the divergence between the official and parallel rates a la the Abacha era. During the Abacha era, the CBN's obstinate interventionism to stop the Naira from falling led to the official rate being 22 Naira to the dollar whilst the parallel rate was 85 Naira to the dollar. This nightmarish scenario is about to be repeated because of Nigerians odd proclivity of failing to learn from history. So in practice the CBN's policy will not actually work and will prove a boon to round trippers and the highly connected. One can purchase $1m with 199m Naira at the official rate and sell the $1m at the parallel rate for 230m Naira. The beauty of Nigeria is that official policy is often designed to aid and abet corruption and nepotism. The most annoying thing is that the CBN's interventionist policy increases the chances of the Naira falling under further pressure! Remember that the Naira is under pressure due to a shortfall of foreign currency entering into the country due to a fall in dollar oil income. Foreign investment is a way to make up that shortfall but the net effect of the CBN's actions as epitomised by JP Morgan's decision is a reduction in foreign investment. It's no good claiming that this is only portfolio investment as this is highly correlated to FDI. This brings me to the political issue. I have to say that I read Passingshot's posts with amusement. He keeps harping on that if not for CBN intervention, the Naira will fall to 350 Naira to $1. Months ago and before Buhari became president, I told him that if he believed the gargantuan sums which it is claimed the GEJ regime stole - the $20bn within 18 months being the most famous - and that Buhari will prove an effective anti-corruption fighter, it will follow that Buhari will recover much of that money. In such a scenario, huge sums of money will be repatriated back to Nigeria and the Naira will not fall to 350 Naira to $1. This in a nutshell embodies the limits of propaganda and the sheer incoherence required to attempt to rationalise the dissonance between reality and propaganda. |
This illustrates that most of these Nnamdi Kanu fanboys are barely educated feeble-minded naifs. These people are fantasists who have nothing better to do with their lives. Someone just woke up and uploaded a random picture of a Ferrari in a dopey attempt to gloat over their demigod. |
A lot of those banking jobs would have been lost anyway. Lower oil prices always has negative ripple effects throughout Nigeria's economy because its our major source of foreign exchange and government spending. |
lagbaja:Lagbaja, why would governments borrow less and interest rates go down as a result of domestic banks lending less to the government? It is a rather glaring non-sequitur in your argument. The government borrows because it needs to make up the difference between its spending and its income. Reducing the pool of potential lenders to the government, as you acknowledge that Nigerian banks are a major lender to the government, would not reduce government bond yields but would increase it. Unless you are arguing that a major cause of our budget deficit is the lack of a TSA? I fail to see how that makes sense. I would argue that the TSA is good in principle but it comes at a difficult time when the economy is weak and banks are facing currency risk in respect of their foreign denominated debt. It should have been phased in gradually or postponed to a more appropriate time The argument that this will promote private sector lending does not wash with me. Reducing the total stock of deposits in the banking system would not necessarily increase private sector lending. I do not know of any example around the world where banks react to a shrinking of their deposit base by increasing private sector lending. In a perverse way, it may actually induce a higher proportional allocation of their loan portfolio to the government as the rising government bond yields, arising from lower demand for government bonds, proves a more enticing prospect. The best way to curb this problem of government bonds "overcrowding" the debt market is for the government to reduce supply by borrowing less. This would require that it spend less and collect more tax. So long as those enticing government bond yields are on offer, banks will have no option but to shun private sector lending in favour of the safety of lending to the Federal Government. |
Rawani:There are no free lunches in economics.You cannot defend a currency if you have insufficient foreign reserves. If you try to, you will either deplete your reserves or cause a huge divergence between the official and parallel exchange rates. A more recent and apt example was the Abacha era: 22 and 85 Naira to the dollar at the official and parallel markets respectively. If the CBN persists in an Abacha style forex policy, forex will become scarce and the demand for forex in the official market will have to be rationed. This rationing will cause prices to go up as the previously imported goods can no longer be imported and as many importers source their forex from the parallel market. So the inflation and job losses will happen anyway. Abacha economics simply delays the inevitable, creates distortions and an attractive avenue for round tripping. By allowing the market to set the exchange rate as has been recommended by JP Morgan, the increase in import costs curbs dollar demand naturally whilst making Nigeria an attractive destination for foreign investors as the cheaper Naira denominated assets prove a lure. It is by this means that equilibrium is achieved as the Naira finds it natural rate at a better level than would be the case if a ham-fisted attempt is made by the CBN to fix a level. All this will be obvious in due course. |
I feel sorry for you people who live in Nigeria as, just as I predicted, the unsound economic policies which this new regime encourages will make matters worse for the economy. What does maintaining the value of the Naira and not devaluing actually entail in practice? It means that imports are cheaper because the Naira has greater purchasing power. At 200 Naira to the dollar, you can import more than if the exchange rate is 240 Naira to the dollar. At a time our export revenue is collapsing, the last thing you need is to maintain your ability to import. For those who say higher inflation, which results from higher import costs, causes job lossess, lets remember that imports also cost jobs. If the market value of the Naira is collapsing, the only way the CBN can stop the Naira from further depreciation is to use up the foreign reserves or simply allow the parrallel market rate to collapse. This is what we had in the Abacha era and in the first Buhari era. In the former, the official rate was 22 Naira to $1 but the market rate was 85 Naira to $1. Only privileged people will be able to buy dollars and the impact this has on corruption can only be imagined. No amount of faux patriotism can cover up the fact that the loss of investor confidence will be a disaster for this country. JP Morgan's decision increases capital flight and puts more pressure on the Naira. What a crazy country. |
plaindealer:You do realise that you are alluding to investment decisions made and statuses achieved, being the continent's top investment destination, when PDP was in power as a defence against the claim that the present government is exacerbating our economic woes? This is okay if you are not a partisan hack but since you are, the hypocrisy in your argument is rather glaring. |
biafranqueen:What is not recognised by many is that there is a simple trade off at play - if the CBN stops supplying dollars to the forex market, reserves will go up but Naira will plummet. If the CBN supplies dollars to the forex market, reserves will fall and Naira will stabilise. When the reserves moved up to $31.6bn, the cost was the collapse of the Naira in the parrallel market. Since then, the CBN has been providing dollars and reserves have gone down to $30.9bn, a fall of $700m in less than a month. See here: [url]http://www.cenbank.org/IntOps/Reserve.asp?MoveDate=9/10/2015%2011:37:57%20AM [/url] I alluded to this trade off in an earlier post: 4Play:https://www.nairaland.com/2476038/buharis-corruption-watch-begins-yield/1#36253175 |
This interview was in May 2015, odd that a 4 months old article is being resurrected today. Much of the criticism is the same tiresome cliched shallow commentary you get accustomed to hearing amongst Nigerians. When he made a rare attempt to venture into offering policy solutions, something he said caught my interest. Excess liquidity is the cause of high interest rates, high rate of inflation and a weak exchange rate that also gives rise to subsidy component in fuel pricing. So, if you are a sensible person, you will look for the root cause of excess liquidity. And excess liquidity is caused every time the CBN captures the dollar earnings of the country and substitutes Naira. The Naira substituted by the CBN is what instigates excess liquidity within the system.If excess liquidity is causing high interest rates, inflation and a weak exchange rates and excess liquidity is caused by the CBN capturing dollar earnings, a reduction in dollar earnings would, ceteris paribus, reduce interest rates and inflation in addition to strenghtening the Naira. Instead, with the reduction in dollar revenue caused by lower oil prices, we have seen even much higher interest and inflation rates in addition to a weaker currency. In my view, inflation is largely a result of the supply side or infrastructural constraints which make the costs of running businesses high - lack of power, electricity and security. Boyo kept on harping on reducing interest rates but reducing rates would increase liquidity, which he blames for inflation and high interest rates. Interest rates reflect the inflationary pressures an economy faces. A finance minister, it's not their responsibility anyway but the CBN governor's, cannot reduce interest rates at a whim. All the other claims pertaining high recurrent expenditure and debts are the sort of things people say when they are playing to the gallery. Recurrent expenditure is mainly made up of the salaries of government workers. If you are serious about tackling this, you would need to cut salaries and or reduce staff headcount. No amount of posturing will change that. |
You would be expect this given the fall in the price of the underlying commodity, crude oil, from which the subsidised fuel is produced. |
News like this is sad but what is even more depressing is the sheer naivety of Nigerians who sincerely believe that corruption, ipso facto, is the sole or main albatross to improving living standards for Nigerians. It is not. Living standards deteriorated significantly in Buhari's first tenure as president. Without sound economic policies, there is no hope for improving people's lives unless you have the good fortune of an oil price boom. In this particular case, it is the CBN's policy ineptitude that is at fault. By restricting market forces from determining the value of Naira in a bone-headed attempt to stop the Naira from falling, we have reduced the attractive of Nigeria as an investment destination. However, the CBN will not embark on this if it did not have the support of a President who believes in a command economy. I suspect the market has already got this largely priced in as it was anticipated. Nevertheless, it is overall bad news and confirms my suspicion that policy ineptitude under the new regime will more than offset the reduction in corruption. |
HungerBAD:This is a very accurate assessment. It's not simply about the competence of ministers,when a president is determined to "reward" some of his lackeys, the ministers will be side-stepped. |
573V31D:The 2 parties are gratuitous liars and reflect the Nigerian populace. The most popular parties in any given country often reflect the aggregate intellectual aptitude and personality disposition of the adult population. Because Nigerians have a disposition in favour of sharp practices and bigotry, APC and PDP operate in a similar ilk and rely on half-truths and divide and rule tactics in their political jousts. |
raayah:Thank you for the link. |
The story has no weblink which provides a source, we don't know when the interview took place and whether the translation is accurate. |
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