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njideoby: Instead, the cash-strapped user of men is hopeful that, as a single mum, she will get a council house and benefits.http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/real-life-stories/lesbian-mum-tricked-man-getting-7324253 |
onatisi:Really? Remember when we were told that Nigerian soldiers who fled to Cameroun and handed their weapons to Camerounian soldiers were engaged in a tactical manoeuvre? That was in the GEJ era when Gen. Olukayode took lying to an art form. I admit the present government has taken deception to Olympian heights but rank dishonesty has always been part and parcel of Nigerian governments modus operandi. That's why I laugh at those who genuinely invest hope in our leaders. You are bound to be disappointed and should take anything you hear with a pinch of salt. |
TippyTop:That's a complete lie. There has been a virtual stalemate since March but Boko Haram has maintained control over a large swathe of Borno during that time. That is why they are often able to move in large numbers over great distances and mount attacks largely unperturbed. Boko Haram illustrates the complete moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Nigerian political class. Had GEJ tackled this menace earlier, it would not have gained such control. Of course, it didn't help that the likes of Buhari sought to gain political capital in the early days by claiming an attack on Boko Haram is tantamount to an attack on the North. Nigeria is a country run by idiotic traitors. |
Jesusloveyou:Nigerians are downright evil. People are being slaughtered but many remain in denial mode because they want to save face for politicians who don't give a crap about your existence. This is the exact same denial campaign PDP defenders mounted during the GEJ era whilst people were being slaughtered. Is there no ounce of decency or humanity left in you lot? |
The blogger is based in the US. I would have found this story more interesting if she had taken legal action in the US and not in Abuja. The US courts, on civil matters, are less amenable to undue influence. |
@Sagamite aka Olodo 1 of Sagamu I realised I was arguing with a mendacious partisan oaf, so decided not to bother but will keep you updated on a monthly basis, if I remember, as to how your "transformative" budget is going. Remember when I made my first comment about the budget being optimistic on the revenue side, the government expected the deficit to be $11bn or 2.2 trillion Naira. Well, the government now expects deficits to be $15bn or 3 trillion Naira. In other words, revenue estimates are now scaled down by $4bn. Nigeria expects a budget deficit of 3 trillion naira in 2016, which is equivalent to $15 billion up from 2.2 trillion naira, or $11 billion, that had been previously estimated.[url]http://www.africanews.com/2016/02/05/nigeria-s-world-bank-support-to-fund-budget-deficit-welcomed/ [/url] Entirely predictable and very much predicted. Maybe they can get some relief from the 40 percent of the budget, conservatively speaking, that was being stolen. ![]() In the end, I suspect they have to cut back some of the planned spending. $15bn is the equivalent of nearly 25% of Nigeria's total outstanding debt when this government came into power. |
anonimi:We are already borrowing. 90 billion Naira is to be borrowed next week: Nigeria to issue N90bn bonds on Feb 10https://businessdayonline.com/2016/02/nigeria-to-issue-n90bn-bonds-on-feb-10/ The above is part of the 3 trillion Naira of borrowing projected for 2016. As the Federal Government moves to borrow $3.5 billion to finance the expected N3 trillion deficit in its 2016 budget proposal, Nigeria’s debt profile is set to rise astronomically, raising fears that the country would soon return to the status of a debtor nation.http://newtelegraphonline.com/season-borrowing-nigeria-needs-15bn-finance-budget/ |
Realist2:What people forget about the $20bn claim from Sanusi is that it refers to a particular 18 month period he happened to look at. If we extrapolate to the length of time GEJ and Diezani were in office, there had to be at least $60bn missing. Yet, the anti-corruption fight is dominated by court proceedings involving millions of dollars. If tens of billions of dollars were missing from the petroleum sector in the first place, why is the government unable to lay charges or even arrest anyone linked to the theft in that sector? To claim that evidence is hard to get hold of is hard to believe. My suspicion is that in the first place, the amounts Sanusi mentioned were fabricated. Also, there are many APC supporters who are implicated in the shenanigans going on the petroleum sector, hence, any thorough investigation will fling mud on the current government's supporters. |
Trailblazer1:That man is just another irritating Nigerian politician who revels in scoring cheap points on Twitter. I won't be surprised if that vehicle - picture of which I have seen before - is the only Innoson vehicle Silverbird have. |
Branding members of an ethnic group uncivilised is hardly the hallmark of a civilised person. |
ednut1:Times are hard. Nigerians will publish anything for internet hits. |
olajide8:This is a breathtaking display of illogic. Devaluation makes imports more expensive and exports cheaper. At 197 Naira to the dollar, import goods are cheaper than at 305 Naira to the dollar. If you import products worth $1m, you need 197m Naira at the official rate and 305m Naira at the market rate. If you export, the market rate means higher Naira income than the official rate. It cannot therefore be a rational argument to claim that keeping the Naira at an artificially inflated value is a way to cut imports and move towards a more domestic industry driven economy. |
On the subject of flashbacks: Nigeria’s main opposition party said it will scrap the country’s sovereign wealth fund and a separate excess crude account if it wins elections in February.“We’re going to put a stop to them,” Lai Mohammed, a spokesman for the All Progressives Congress, or APC, said in an interview in London yesterday. “The sovereign wealth fund and the excess crude account are illegal.”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-09-30/nigeria-s-opposition-wants-to-scrap-sovereign-oil-funds Is it not ironic that a party that who made it plainly clear that they are against maintaining a savings buffer against a potential fall in oil price now bemoan the lack of savings today? Lets also remember that many APC run states, including Kemi Adeosun's Ogun state where she was commissioner of finance, were run as if oil prices will never fall. This explains why they have required bailouts. Remember this when you hear these partisan hacks try to pretend they are different from PDP. |
Wallade:Sometimes it saves time to just repost old comments: 4Play:The defenders of the CBN also ignore the supreme irony in insisting on maintaining the Naira at an inflated value as a way of weaning Nigeria off its dependence on imports. Theoretically, 197 Naira to the dollar makes imports cheaper than 305 Naira to the dollar. |
As someone who called GEJ a buffoon in the past, I can hardly disagree with that adjective used in describing GEJ. 4Play:[url]https://www.nairaland.com/2577234/read-what-swedish-reporter-says [/url] But as my post above made months ago noted, GEJ's incompetence became common knowledge after a considerable length of time in power, though I railed about his shortcomings right at the outset. In the same vein, Buhari's sheer incompetence and utter buffoonery is still under-appreciated. The Economist nailed its colours to the mast pre-elections by adopting the view that Buhari will make a better president. This was foolish in my view as history shows that Buhari's economic illiteracy was as deleterious as GEJ's blind spot for corruption. The Economist, having taken such a tendentious pro-Buhari view is invested in that view and continues to rationalise this even as evidence mounts, as clear from its own articles, that Nigeria is descending into an economic abyss facilitated by a gratuitously inept Buhari regime. |
mrvitalis:The problem is that the Naira is already devalued.What the president is resisting is official devaluation but very few people, certainly not the common man, have access to the official rate. You made a point about corruption, but you fail to recognise that corruption is abetted by maintaining an official rate that is significantly divergent from the market rate. People with connections can, with 200m Naira obtain $1m at the official rate and then sell the $1m for 305m Naira at the market rate. In the Abacha era, the official rate was 22 Naira to the dollar while the market rate hit 85 Naira. The common man did not benefit from this but the highly connected did. It is also a major failure of this government that it insists on making pronouncements on currency policy when this should be the sole preserve of the CBN. |
onatisi:The bolded part of your quote chimes with my view. When you have a president insisting that the Naira will not be devalued and that he does not know what all the talk about subsidy is about, those working under him have to either go along with the voodoo economics or quit. Being Nigerians, the latter is not an option so the likes of Adeosun, Udoma, Kachikwu and Emefiele will soldier on whilst their reputations are sullied. Even NOI for all her headstrong streak managed to play the ostrich whilst thieves were making out like bandits. The lure of public office can prove too strong. Where Adeosun and Emefiele are different is that they are likely to go ahead with anything without the slightest iota of resistance. |
Zoharariel:This is classic Naija confusion. You condemn one thief, Dasuki, and praise another thief, Abacha. |
The insistence on non-devaluation and maintaining a peg by the CBN which has exacerbated the problem is based on economic quackery which is traceable to Buharinomics. I say this because the President himself has ruled out devaluation and we had the same currency regime when he was military president leading to a wide margin between the official exchange rate and the market exchange rate. History is simply repeating itself in a country where its people refused to learn from history. I would love Emefiele to be nudged out of his job, partly because it will highlight that the ultimate source of the policy inflexibility is the President. It is not a coincidence that we had 2 devaluations before May 29 and none since then. The CBN governor is in any case a morally compromised person as it's inconceivable that he is not implicated in the Dasuki scandal. This robs him of the capacity to make a principled stance and do what is right for the country instead of kowtowing to his political masters. Another issue that I find amusing is how Sanusi has escaped blame for the country's present currency problems. You often hear people ask why GEJ did not increase reserves despite high oil prices but the foreign reserves for much of his tenure was managed by Sanusi who we are told is a man of principle. I pointed out many times on Nairaland during Sanusi's tenure that he was making grave policy errors by maintaining a stable exchange rate at the cost of a failure to accumulate reserves in the event of an oil price crash. Had the Naira been allowed to drift lower in the past, we would not have had to experience such a sharp adjustment and would be going into this crisis with more reserves in the kitty. The roots of our problem ultimately come down to policy ineptitude and whether we like it or not, a failure to come to grips with sound economic policies appropriate for a modern globalised economic era will continue to prove our downfall. |
These are the true wailing wailers. They have been failed by the GEJ government and are being failed by this Buhari government. |
Bayo Ogunlesi or Ayo Teriba, either would be more than capable but I suspect the government was looking for a lightweight that can be bossed around. Okechukwu Enelamah is also very good but there is a strength of feeling against perceived Igbo domination. |
mfm04622:Don't mind these praise singers. This is the same way some Nigerians were praising GEJ. The way to be patriotic is to ask tough questions of your government not praise singing and accepting at face value excuses. People will tell you that extortion continues unabated at the ports. It's hard to change ingrained corrupt attitudes and so you need to constantly put their feet to the fire and not shower praises on government officials. |
onegig:Right, you unlettered buffoon - can you cite which part of the following is hearsay: 977 billion Naira in 2014 and 903 billion Naira in 2015. Revenues have clearly dropped and this fits in with my long-running theme that there is little evidence that revenue collection is improving now we are suppossedly in or moving towards a zero-corruption era.Nigeria's revenue collection is not improving and this is after we have been told that the previous regime stole $20bn in 18 months and $10bn for the 2015 elections. Look at this story for instance: Nigeria has lost a staggering N1.4 trillion on import waivers over the last there years and not N171 billion as claimed by finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.https://www.naij.com/57136.htmlNow that thieves in the previous regime have been ejected, things should be improving instead of hearing an ever growing mountain of excuses. Yes, 2015 was a difficult year. But we were beguiled with stories about how trillions of Naira was being lost because of corruption. Now that you have changed course, you are now telling us revenue collection cannot be improved as things are hard. When will you people realise that this government and the last are 2 cheeks of the same bu-tt? |
DropShot:The claim that 240bn Naira would have been generated from those banned items is not a fact but an opinion or a hypothetical. Facts matter more than hypotheticals. How is the 240bn Naira even arrived at? If you are going to use hypotheticals, have you pondered the implication of policy incoherence which your acceptance of the Cusoms boss views entail? The CBN, with the blessing of the FG, banned the import of 41 items to preserve Naira value as it concluded that failing this, it would cause a collapse of Naira and grave economic hardship. If that position is right, then it is inconceivable we would be able to afford to import as many products as we have so far with the ban in place. The implication would have been lesser import duties. Has anyone also considered the implications of currency depreciation and inflation in judging these nominal amounts? 970bn Naira in 2014 is not the equivalent of 970bn Naira in 2015. |
I didn't respond to this earlier due to lack of time but I have to say much of your comments add no substantive value to the debate. Unfortunately, I disagree.This is a debate prompted by my claim that the 2016 budget may be fueled by debt -a claim already admitted by the politicians you are desperately defending. A debate about a budget hinges on data not a recourse to argument by assertion. This is not a debate about philosophy or theory but about facts. Sticking to argument by assertion simply means that the facts belie your argument but that you don't want to be exposed as a chump. I also fundamentally disagree with your social sciences axiom. Governments are different. Even in the UK, conservatives would be different from labour. In the US, republicans are different from democrats. The most useless democratic government we have had is a competition between Jonaadaft and Shagari, Buhari would struggle to beat that even if he banged his head and something changed and he tried.There are usually peripheral differences between Labour and Conservatives and the GOP and the Democrats. You have to be utterly naive or hopelessly partisan to claim that either party represents a great leap in competence and that outcomes will be substantially different under either. If that were the case, the less competent party would effectively be wiped out by the electorate. By the same token, anyone who asserts that a GEJ or a Buhari government is oodles better than the other is expresssing sophomoric judgement. Of course yam-eating would be continuing in earnest until people see the consequences of it. You think people would just wake up and give up their lifestyles and "investment" in corruption without a fight?So yam eating today continues in earnest but you still maintain confidence that this government marks a monumental positive change from the previous one? Who is in power today - APC or PDP? Is there any evidence that the anti-corruption fight extends to the former? So, of course yam eating will continue in earnest. Today's yam eater has no need to put up a fight as the government is not actually demonstrating the slightest inclination to tackle corrupt officials under its watch. First of all, I don't think if $2.1bn is missing then Dasuki alone would have pocketed it all. Even if I said that, you should not be pedantic to the level you take it literally. If you understand the way corruption works, there will be others taking a cut from it, Dasuki is just the central figure in the loot.Right, this was your initial statement - Only a NSA on his own was stealing $2bn because they knew it was a Mumu that was running the country. I am glad you have "clarified" that a statement that only the NSA on his own was stealing $2bn does not mean that the NSA on his own stole $2bn. Secondly, the fact he is being charged with only a fraction NOW is by no means evidence that $2.1bn is an exaggeration. They reported to have found $2.1bn that is unaccounted for or illegal spending overall. You should consider he is being charged for a fraction of the loot because those are the easy to trace ones they have found. You have absolutely no clue the list of other charges that would come and the combined figure it would come to. You are exhibiting the same quick to and early judgement one sees with wailing wailers here. The only difference is that I suspect yours is sincere and with good intentions.This is utter hogwash. If it is known that the NSA and accomplices stole $2.1bn then that is sufficient to charge them for the theft. A prosecutor need not know where the money is now, what is sufficient for a charge is to demonstrate that the sums in question were illegally removed which, if they know this is what happened, they would do so. If there is no charge for those sums, it is because they do not know that those sums were stolen or are not serious. In either case, one cannot come on the internet and assert as a matter of fact that a sum was stolen, based on Naija media reports, when evidence that a sum of that magnitude was stolen is not extant. First of all, let me tell you about my experience in a country with low corruption and high acountability. I was working in an advisory capacity to a UK government department and during a meeting a Director told me that they attribute about 6% of their procurements to corrupt practices. If a country like the UK can attribute as much as 6% to corruption, what would you think a country soiled and soaked in corruption like Nigeria during a Yam Festival being run by a cretin would be? You really think 40% is absurd? O lo si gym ni to ma ni abs? (It went to the gym to get the abs?)Sagamite, please what is the name of this director who disclosed to you that 6% of a UK government department's budget is lost via corruption? You seem to extrapolate from your mystical director's claim to the UK as a whole meaning that 6% of the £743bn UK budget, or £44bn is lost via corruption. I cannot even make such an outlandish claim in polite circles without people worrying about my mental health. I can understand if you are talking of a department like DFID and our foreign aid budget but that is because of the recipients of the foreign aid budget and is no reflection of the UK's susceptibility to corruption. Let's go back to your original statement - Mate, Nigeria had a previous budget of about $28bn. Of which (conservatively) at least 40% was being looted. . This is a shocking display of ignorance. If at least 40% of the FG budget is stolen, it means that Nigeria subsisted on at most $16bn. That the genuine FG spending committments - debt servicing, FG workers who include soldiers and policemen, actual fuel subsidies, e.t.c - is covered by only $16bn. Sagamite, if you actually believe this, this is an absurd display of bloviating ignorance. This is what irritates me about Nigerians and why these debates are a waste of time. People believe that IBB stole $12.3bn of Gulf War windfall when nothing of that magnitude was generated for the period in question. Fighting corruption does not mean one has to believe or make outlandish claims. You cannot say if revenue has not improved in 6 months, then it "certainly" will not improve in 12 months or 1 year. That is a logical fallacy! Even in any calculations being done by a government, they would have a base case plus optimistic and pessimistic cases. This is the norm when trying to forecast the future. The base case is what is presented.You are being gratuitously obtuse. Take the analogy you have given, how the hell does that even rebut my point? Read again, slowly if that helps, the summation of my view: Given present revenue generation, it is unlikely revenue generation in the coming months of 2016 will be high enough to justify the revenue projections made in the 2016 budget. What that means is 2016 is too early for revenues to increase sufficiently as projected. 2016 starts from 1 January 2016. Revenues need to be showing improvement already, not in a year's time, for the revenues projection to make any sense. If it is too early for revenues to increase as you acknowledge, what the flipping hell have you been arguing about all this while? Be careful how certain you are or proclaim when you are making assumptions, ESPECIALLY about future events.Of course when one is talking about the FUTURE actions of a 2nd party, and not ones-self, a major part of one's position is a level of faith. So, yes, there is a leap of faith in my position. You are perfectly entitled to your level of pessimism. But I don't share that. My faith lies in my inside knowledge of how badly run the country has been run during the rise festival and my belief in the intent of Buhari as well as his ministerial appointments which brims with some competent individuals.And yet, yam eating continues in earnest and revenue remains as dissapointing as before so your faith is not based on anything concrete. Talking of these competent individuals, does that include Kemi Adeosun who managed your state's finances for 4 years culminating in it requiring a bailout? Did Buhari not have this good intent when he ran PTF and NNPC and was military president? Yet, all previous stints in office were marked by grotesque incompetence. As for your arguments about individual actions by Buhari, to be clear, I don't agree with all his policies (nor his appointments) but that should not be mixed up with the realities of emotional phases of complex transformation which I am aware of and is academically accepted.You are assuming the premise which remains unproven - there is little evidence that Nigeria is experiencing positive transformation. As for the highlighted in red, my advice to you is refrain from using such arguments. It is in the category of your "certainty" above.Do you seriously think that a good defence of Buhari is that he has no policy and was slow to appoint ministers? It is another example of why he is just another inept politician and is a repeat of what he did the last time he was president. You state there is not enough data for investors to work with, you are somewhat closer to the truth. There is nothing investors can see happening now which will give them confidence that this government marks a paradigm improvement on the previous one. Nobody can accuse the investor community of being wailing wailers. Their actions constitute an objective vote of no-confidence based on what has transpired so far. Only those who are engaging in wishful thinking, who are disingenuous or are operating under some ethnic bias invest much hope on any set of Nigerian politicians without concrete evidence of much improvement. I can't disagree with this. But If you were in their position, what will you do? You need to get a budget out in 6 months and make decisions on policies soon, what will you do? Start gathering data that might take you 2 years to get good ones? Or go with the inadequate data at hand to make some kind of decision for now and focus on data improvement in the future?You cannot announce plans to borrow unprecedented amounts and justify it by reference to data that you claim is bogus. You can't tell lenders to lend you more money whilst maintaining that your financial position is bogus. The solution is to reduce borrowing drastically until revenues actually improve and until you have reassessed Nigeria's GDP figures. You cannot go on a borrowing spree based on bogus figures from the GEJ era and expect me to accept that this regime and the previous one are not birds of the same feather. Why do you think they need to lock up their critics?I do not think they need to lock up critics. But if as you state criticism is impeding their work, it may be of assistance if they did that. Your posts here are a classic illustration of the chump tendency which my profile signature hints at. The original substance of your contention - a refutation of my claim that the 2016 budget requires major debt expansion - has long been lost. You claim it's too early to see substantial revenues improvement but that is effectively my original point, i.e., that the government cannot collect the projected revenues in the 12 months of 2016 given present revenue figures. The government may be able to match those projected revenue figures by 2018 - we will be able to judge closer to the time - but not in 2016. As for GEJ's regime stealing, conservatively speaking, 40% of the budget that would imply that actual expenditure in the past is circa $16bn at the most. Given that this government has budgeted $30bn and it is an honest and competent government as your faith-based claim posits, we are going to experience the equivalent of a $14bn stimulus. I have always stated on this forum that Nigeria has 2 main problems - corruption and policy ineptitude. However, the former pales in significance to the latter as you can develop with a corrupt leader a la Park Chung Hee of South Korea and Chiang Kai-Shek of Taiwan but there is no historical example of development with an inept leader. I also think Nigerians have a penchant for exaggeration or mendacity and that this erodes the quality of public debate. This is why Nigerians supported NLC's demands for a minimum wage of 52,000.00 Naira as the impression is created of an abundant fiscal purse which, but for pilfering by the political elite, would be sufficient to provide such goodies. I totally agree that we have some of the most corrupt political leadership but we need to maintain factual accuracy to be able critically evaluate our government and not pluck numbers out of the air. 5 years ago, I used to ask the Fresh air activists why they had such faith in GEJ given his unremarkable record as a public servant and would receive the usual non-sequitur dross. This is what I noted in 2010 post - This man will turn out to be the worst President we've had since Shagari. Because he's taken over in extra-ordinary circumstances, his power base is not strong which means he feels he needs to bribe his way to gain loyalty.https://www.nairaland.com/508968/jonathan-blew-away-27-billion#6701023. Buhari is in the same category as he has an emphatic record of utter incompetence which in any civilised setting would have entailed he would hardly be considered for the equivalent of local government chairman. As with GEJ, you do not need 4 years of failure to determine that inept public officials are more likely to provide inept governance. |
Day169: The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), one of the major revenue generating arteries of the government raked in about N977.09 billion in 2014.[url] http://sunnewsonline.com/new/customs-generates-n977-09bn-revenue-in-2014/[/url] 977 billion Naira in 2014 and 903 billion Naira in 2015. Revenues have clearly dropped and this fits in with my long-running theme that there is little evidence that revenue collection is improving now we are suppossedly in or moving towards a zero-corruption era. |
This is just a continuation of the lies and deceit we witnessed under the GEJ government. The situation is appalling for Nigerian soldiers but Nigerians sit in the comfort of their homes and pretend otherwise whilst pro-government propagandists call critics IPOB and before that, Janja-weed. |
I posted something on this months ago. This is culled from the Economist: Nigeria’s army, by contrast, is finding counter-insurgency far more difficult than merely liberating captured towns. It has also lost much of the support that contributed to its victories earlier this year. Mercenaries who helped turn the tide in the north-east have been sent home and Chadian soldiers have pulled back over the border. Morale among poorly equipped Nigerian troops is plummeting again. “[It is becoming] the way it used to be before—[when] one man [was issued with just] one bullet [per target]—it’s just the same now,” says one military man.http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21657386-jihadists-have-switched-holding-towns-waging-guerrilla-war-bombs-are This is culled from Voice of America: Some residents of the northeastern city of Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, say they feel safer; but, soldiers who spoke to VOA say they’re ill-equipped and outgunned, while a government official in Borno State says some areas remain unsafe.http://m.voanews.com/a/boko-haram-still-a-threat-as-deadline-nears/3095182.html |
That's the son of Ms Khadija Dare, the British-Nigerian ISIS concubine. |
seunmsg:You have a valid point in respect of the third point, though I am uncertain as to how much exclusive revenue the FG can retain, but I have to ask what is the revenue of MDAs in the post-GEJ era? 1 trillion Naira equates to 250 billion Naira every 3 months or 83 billion naira each month. Our MDAs do not generate revenues, additional to the amounts in the FAAC allocation, that are remotely close to those figures. As for the 350bn Naira to be generated from looters. How is the FG going to generate this in the next 12 months when it has not generated anything of that magnitude in the last 7 months? A lot of these revenue projections are based on wishful thinking, it's like those Pentecostal posters - 2016 is our Miracle Year! Even the 161bn Naira I mentioned refers to monthly average at a time of $48 oil which is 20% higher than the budget estimate of $38 and is, therefore, quite optimistic. At the $48 price FG monthly average, which was 200bn when oil was $64, has fallen to 161bn Naira. At $38 oil, God forbid it falls lower, achieving that 161bn figure is a huge mountain to climb. I think we have to be realistic and not let our desire or wish for success blind us to realities. No point in asserting that revenues will be generated in the coming 12 months when the evidence from the last few months suggest to the contrary. Another thing you will notice is that the trend revenue figure is one of decline going into 2016. We are expected to believe that this decline will be suddenly reversed in 2016 and that revenues will suddenly accelerate higher despite lower presumed lower oil prices. What would have been easier is for the government to defer the increased spending to 2017 and demonstrate first that it can collect those revenues it is claiming - Show us you can collect those revenues in the first place before committing yourself to spending all that money. |
baralatie:Why devaluation does not help much is that the gap between projected spending and likely revenue is so large that devaluation cannot bridge that gap to any significant degree. The way devaluation helps is if you are, for instance, anticipating oil dollar revenues of $10bn translating to 1.97 trillion Naira at the official rate, by devaluing to 260 Naira for instance, that would translate to 2.6 trillion Naira. It's unlikely that devaluation will make much of a difference, nor would asset sales as you would be looking at $10bn worth of sales at least. There is no indication that the government is looking at major asset sales. I tend to be wary of delving into the ethnic dynamics of Nigerian politics but it's somewhat relevant here in relation to asset sales and deregulation in general. A government headed by a Northerner is less likely to be keen on taking assets into private hands as the South and Southerners have an edge - possessing a larger cadre of skilled and educated private sector human resources. There are some other ways in which deregulation produces unequal outcomes - deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector would mean higher fuel prices in the North for instance. Thus, a Buhari government will try to plough on with as few asset sales as possible even if the likes of Fayemi or Adeosun may think it's good policy. |
MizColiatu:The budget is unrealistic. It cannot be implemented based on its assumptions. My suggestions will prove unpopular but the goverrnment should have made the tough decisions now by devaluing the currency (the feckless Emefiele will do whatever Buhari signals), privatisation/asset sales, fiscal austerity by reducing spending across the board. In short, it should have sought to reduce the gap between its projected spending and revenues by reducing spending and selling assets to increase revenue. These decisions will prove unpopular so there is a question as to their political feasibility but I do think it's still doable now. A government's popularity erodes over time so you need to make the tough choices early while you are still popular, though it's debatable whether that window has closed. In a stagflation environment marked by high inflation and stagnant economic growth, you cannot spend your way to prosperity. Any attempt to increase spending as the FG plans will increase inflation and market interest rates - the latter because FG borrowing will compete with private sector borrowing and interest rates need to increase to cope with the inflationary effects of increased FG spending. I have seen people draw parallels with the US fiscal stimulus package, but the US was facing deflationary pressures (falling inflation rates) and not increased inflation so the capacity to absorb spending existed. |
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