₦airaland Forum

If this statement is true, Buhari is absolutely right. We should take the opportunity afforded by the oil price fall to remove subsidy not to increase it.

boolet:
If price per barrel was N119 and PMS was N97, now that barrel price is N49 PMS should be N27. Nigerians should know the truth.

The Govt pays a subsidy by paying the difference between a market price and an official price. Reducing the official price increases this difference and therefore increases the subsidy, at a time falling oil prices mean the Govt has less revenue to even pay workers on time.

The fall in Naira means that much of the fall in market price is already reflected in the current price. This call for a reduction in official prices illustrates that the policy ineptitude that has impoverished this country is as much the fault of an ignorant populace as it is of a thieving political class.

Another insulting promise from the Nigerian political class which highlights Nigerians' susceptibility to manipulation.

Babymama1:
Soyinka's words are not what they used to be
He has become partisan and trying hard not to sound so
He had some strong words for Buhari in 2007 but his son is now a commissioner in APC and he is eating from Amaechi
He has to appear neutral

There is some truth to this, he's had strong words against Buhari at a time he wasn't contemplating that Buhari would be the presidential candidate for his son's party and he's had strong words against GEJ when he wasn't contemplating the choice of GEJ vs Buhari, the latter whom he had condemned already.

For him, the best way to reconcile these conflicting tensions is not to endorse either. However, I would have thought the best thing to do is to do is to endorse Buhari as the lesser of 2 evils and given his son's APC interests.

I don't think Nigerians care about consistency anyway as most Nigerians are young and do not have a keen sense of history. He can explain away his endorsement of Buhari as reflecting the new realities plaguing the nation.

I know this story has been posted to the front page with certain intentions but Soyinka's non-endorsement is a damning indictment of both GEJ and Buhari as it illustrates the unattractiveness of both candidates. It's like choosing between cow and horse poo.

These are the exchange rate numbers to 1 US dollar.
1983 0.724
1984 0.765
1985 0.894 (1.70 Parallel Market)

I didn't realise that you had already posted this. The parrallel market reflects the real value of a currency. Supposing GEJ announced in 2010 that the official rate of exchange is 140 Naira to 1$, if the parrallel market today shows 190 Naira to 1$, GEJ "success" in stabilising the exchange rate by looking at the official exchange rate but at the parrallel rate. Chai, Nigerians make me laugh

I think people have to realise that military purchases are not like popping down to Alaba market to buy a laptop. You have to distinguish between when equipment is delivered and when it is purchased. During the Buhari era, oil prices had collapsed so it won't be a shocker if we weren't in a position to make major purchases. We, however, did take delivery of a lot of equipment purchased in the Shagari era.

LRNZH:
[b]Provide a short summary of your conclusions after dealing with the topic so we can analyse them
My short answer to you is that GMB inherited problems from Shagari-led regime and introduced austerity measures to check them.
Whenever austerity measures are introduced, some measure of pains will be felt before the desired results will be seen.
IBB's coup cut GMB's Gov't short to 20 months only a d reversed GMB's austerity measures. That way the benefits of the austerity could not materialise.
About Naira losing value significantly under GMB, check this chart showing Naira exchange rate between 1980 and 1990. Mind you GMB was president from Dec 31, 1983 to Aug 27, 1985.

Your thread title suggests that Buhari did not devalue Naira. However, the reality is that in his brief stay in power, the Naira lost value. I know in Nigeria, facts are relative to where your political and ethnic affiliations lie but the Naira's loss of value during Buhari's reign is a historical fact.

It is not my view that this is a bad thing, like I said, when oil prices fall, the Naira must lose value otherwise you will have an overvalued currency and create dislocations in the economy. The problem is that because economic illiteracy pervades Nigerian political debates, people see a "strong Naira" always as a mark of good economic management and try to rewrite history to fit this uninformed perspective.

See Table1.4A which sets out the exchange rates - [url]https://books.google.com.ng/books?id=NXvdu4ObyGsC&pg=PA11&lpg=PA11&dq=naira+value+1983&source=bl&ots=h6D7_8nRI-&sig=ahUvwNKNquM-B3RL_HsTt8ElmDY&hl=en&sa=X&ei=aZevVMKLJ8j9UPrYg7AB&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=naira%20value%201983&f=false[/url]

@OP

Bros, why you dey lie? Are you one of the pay per post posters that dot this forum? This topic has already been exhaustively dealt with on this forum, the Naira lost value significantly under the Buhari era. The reality is that in a time of falling oil prices, the Naira will have to lose value.

In addition, Buhari implemented austerity policies which led to the mass retrenchment of public sector workers. Necessary economic policy in my view and one which we would have to implement this year too.

When you see people shouting GEJ till 2019 and Sai Buhari, you wonder if there is some truth to these claims about Nigerian IQ.

However, the specific claim here, that Nigerians have an average IQ of 69 is utterly false. You will find that the source of these claims has financial links to white supremacist groups.

IQ is a proxy for academic intelligence and not intelligence in the fullest of sense. Intelligence is hard to define and IQ may only measure, at worst, an ability to take IQ tests or, at best, scholastic aptitude.

I would concede that Nigerians may have marginally lower IQs than Westerners but not to the point of imbecility as a mean IQ of 69 would imply. Lower IQ may explain Nigerians' anti-intellectualism as evidenced on this forum.

We may be more resilient than is perceived but I still expect a significant deceleration in growth next year. For the Govt, the problem is that most spending goes on recurrent revenues - wages and debt servicing - leaving little room for manoeuvre as you can't cut these much.

eejo:
must they buy from uk and us raw materials what of china

You are going to need dollars to buy from China. Besides, the Naira has fallen against all major currencies so it doesn't make a difference whether you buy from China or the US.

One thing that is lost in the conversation is that Nigeria already has a diversified economy. Yes, it does not have a diversified tax base but that is different. The Govt can reduce its reliance on oil by taxing other sectors of the economy more and that would require setting up a comprehensive tax collection infrastructure to monitor and enforce tax collection.

There are many Nigerians who don't pay income tax and in many ways the dependence on oil perpetuates politcal apathy and a lack of accountability. When Govt revenue does not come from your pocket, it's difficult to summon the motivation to challenge the wanton theft that you hear about involving our politicians. Also, if tax revenue came mainly from people's pockets, some of the boneheaded policies which have popular appeal such as fuel subsidy and a large public sector payroll would be seriously re-examined.

As far as the currency issue is concerned, we need a diversified export base so that a fall in one commodity's price does not lead to an implosion in our currency. To get that, we need to end this fetishisation over the value of Naira. Yes, it is not a horrible thing if the Naira falls to 200 Naira to a US dollar. Using our oil revenues to stabilise the currency can undermine the export competitiveness of non-oil sectors. We obviously need a set of policies designed to promote exports such as low interest loans and tax reductions for exporters, investment in infrastructre. All these would require a reduction in our recurrent expenditure - abolishing fuel subsidies and reducing public sector payrolls.

It seems what this benighted paid propagandist called Chemali did is go on google and copy and paste the first things he found.

There is no policy substance to Nigerian politics as people operate purely on sentiments. GEJites hope to win by cobbling together a coalition of Southerners and Middle-Beltans who are afraid of the "Fulani-imperialist" called Buhari. Buharites hope to win by cobbling together Northerners and Yorubas who want to reclaim their "rightful "place at the centre of Naija politics. Overaching this panoply of tribal/regional sentiments is intellectual ignorance with a litany of ignoramuses who subscribe to views and expectations that make no iota of sense. They say people get the leaders they deserve, Nigeria is a classic case.

chemali:
Inasmuch as we need to know how these would be funded, no one gives a damn about your "Britainness"

You can read the Conservative party manifesto here: https://www.conservatives.com/~/media/Files/Downloadable%20Files/MANIFESTO%202014/Large%20Print%20Euro%20Manifesto_English.ashx

Labour: http://archive.labour.org.uk/uploads/TheLabourPartyManifesto-2010.pdf

It's always a statement of we will do this!

You are not denying that the APC manifesto is uncosted. In response, you have posted a link to the Tory party homepage and the Labour party's 78 pages long detailed and costed manifesto. Can you tell me how either supports your affinity to vacuous political promises?

To even imply that the detailed political discourse we have in the West is no different from the charade you have in Nigeria is beyond comprehension.

Lets take one issue: Can you estimate the costs of free healthcare for all in Nigeria and how we will pay for it. More importantly, why haven't any of the state governors put this in place already?

Thank God I am a British citizen. The sheer absurdity of Nigeria's political discourse never ceases to amaze.

A manifesto that lists a set of uncosted objectives is an insult to any educated person's intelligence. Promises to build refineries, infrastructure and raise spending as a percentage of GDP are abundant but no word on the costs and how this is to be paid for. And these are educated Nigerians.

GEJ turns a blind eye to corruption. So, there may not be actual evidence linking his person to corruption but he aids and abets it by not tackling corruption.

In some way, GEJ is like Buhari and Shagari in that evidence of personal corruption is relatively minimal. However, these leaders allowed underlings whether under PTF or in the 2nd Republic to get away with corruption.

The reality is that in the Nigerian political system, corruption oils the wheels of political negotiations. Turning a blind eye to what your supporters do allows you to retain support.

@OP

What people don't understand is that the Nigerian political system will not allow the emergence of honest people. So anyone you see here campaigning for GEJ or Buhari is either compromised or hopelessly naive.

Does anyone remember the insistence by the National Assembly to increase the budget benchmarks in previous budget deliberations?

A report by the Joint Committees of the National Assembly on Finance and Appropriation which was submitted on the floor of the Senate Thursday has recommended an upward review of the oil benchmark price from $74 per barrel to $76.5 per barrel in the 2014 budget as contained in the Medium Term Economic Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF and FSP) 2014-2016, and also described the implementation of the 2013 budget as poor.

[url]http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/national-assembly-increases-oil-benchmark-to-76-5pb/163738//url]

By constantly ramping up the benchmark, it means there is less room to manoeuver when oil prices collapse. There will be no lessons learnt because Nigerian politics is fixated on personality and tribe/religion.

Lagos may have the largest absolute debt but it is in a better fiscal state to service the debt due to its large revenues

kiDDa:
And it would continue to drop...until GEJ leaves

fyneguy:
Well, GEJ should just go. No more, no less!

Are you guys implying that GEJ is responsible for the fall in oil prices, a globally traded commodity? The ignorance of Nigerians never ceases to amaze.

These threads and articles are comical because it is crystal clear that GEJ's Govt is corrupt and inept, hence one need not resort to lies to expose the Govt's theft and incompetence. Nevertheless, you see time and again this ceaseless resort to lies to make an anti-GEJ case. Whether it's Sanusi's bizarre claim of a missing $49bn or Amaechi's risible claim of missing money from the Excess Crude account, mendacity is a quotidian tool in Nigerian politics.

My theory as to why these lies are common place is that they serve shock value and distinguishing functions. If you are a paid hack whose job is to sell APC to a sceptical Nigerian public, you have to show that PDP's corruption is on such a gargantuan scale that it surpasses anything APC's politicians can muster. This is because the public realises that corruption is endemic to the political system, so a vote for one party in a corrupt system is not an antidote to corruption. It's the job of a hired hack to say, "look, whatever you think of our corrupt guys, the others are far worse".

Imagine a debate between a Stalinist and a Hitlerite, it wouldn't be sufficient for either to point to the factual records of the other in order to impugn each's moral standing as both Stalin and Hitler were murderous. To make a strong case, one must show that the other's infamy was significantly worse. You can even say that Hitler did not murder 6 million Jews but 12 million.

It's therefore the lack of credible political choices that drives these debates. The Govt's record is appalling as one can see with the failure to prosecute those involved in the subsidy theft, the pardoning DSP, the fiasco seen in the fight against Boko Haram, e.t.c. Because the suggested alternatives also have a history of ineptitude, witness Buhari's well documented hapless management of PTF, it becomes necessary to show one's favoured candidate's ineptitude pales in significance by comparison to the adversary. That is the purpose of threads like this.

seankafor:
this is pleasent to the ear
hope it is used for its purpose

I hope you are merely being sarcastic, otherwise this post is gratuitously moronic.

The military likes to do its fighting on newspaper pages and on the internet. This is just another propaganda piece that has no substance.

We are better off raising a militia manned by locals who are better motivated to fight Boko Haram. Yes, there will be saboteurs amongst them but the sheer force of numbers will overwhelm Boko Haram.

Our present army lacks the numbers to tackle Boko Haram, hence, Boko Haram can send large concentrations of terrorists against poorly manned units. Because Boko Haram is prepared to take casualties, they end up succeeding as they have numerical and motivational advantages which overcome our weapons superiority. In respect of motivational advantage, many of our troops joined to escape unemployment and poverty not to defend Nigeria. Logically, faced with a fatalist enemy, they choose to live rather than risk death. With a local militia funded by the Nigerian Govt, we solve these problems in one sweep.

saxywale:
A lot to do with the FG. I wouldn't blame GEJ but okonji iweala. Saudi not so affected by the drop because they have a good external reserve. But our own government has eaten deep into theirs via corruption unlimited.

You do realise that it's the CBN that maintains foreign reserves not the finance ministry?

Again, your comment highlights something I have referred to previously about Nigeria's personality-based zero principles political discourse. As far as building up a bulwark against an oil price crash is concerned, has there been a bigger champion for a "savings" account a la the excess crude account than Iweala?

For years, she has championed this cause to the chagrin of many Nigerians who never learned the lessons of what happened to us in the 80s but has instead been met with cynicism and opposition. Every budget battle is marked with National Assembly legislators seeking to increase the oil benchmark and thereby reduce the amount accruing to the excess crude account, we have governors fighting tooth and nail to declare the excess crude account illegal and even members of the opposition echoing similar sentiments. For an example of the latter, see below:

Nigeria’s main opposition party said it will scrap the country’s sovereign wealth fund and a separate excess crude account if it wins elections in February.

“We’re going to put a stop to them,” Lai Mohammed, a spokesman for the All Progressives Congress, or APC, said in an interview in London yesterday. “The sovereign wealth fund and the excess crude account are illegal.”

The $1.5 billion sovereign wealth fund, called the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority, was started in 2011, with the ruling People’s Democratic Party saying the country needed to save money for future generations. The Excess Crude Account, which stands at $4.11 billion, is used by the government to cover shortfalls in its budget and give foreign investors comfort the state can guard against a fall in the value of the currency.

Foreign investors closely monitor the excess crude account, which has helped attract high portfolio flows to Nigeria in the past two years, according to Esili Eigbe, Lagos-based head of West African research at Exotix, a frontier markets investment bank.

“Part of the reason you’re seeing a push for Nigeria is because of some of the shock absorbers,” such as the account that holds oil earnings above a budget benchmark, he said in a telephone interview. “You have to look at this in the context of the household. The household without savings is vulnerable to swings and shocks.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-30/nigeria-s-opposition-wants-to-scrap-sovereign-oil-funds.html

The reality is that most Nigerians are not particularly driven by issues but personalities. The present economic developments do not vindicate those who wanted to abolish our buffer against an oil price crash but those who wanted to increase that buffer. However, in a country where emotions and ethnic loyalties trump reasoned discourse, people will blame the vindicated.

ShySteady:
One look at this picture and it tells a thousand stories in one sentence, "Power belongs to God Almighty and He gives it to whom He wills". Your present status today, no matter your age or tribe cannot determine where God chooses to place you tomorrow.
There are those who would kill just to be in the office GEJ presently occupies, but if God has not destined a man for greatness, he can never be great.
That is why I make bold to declare that nobody can kill you except God permits, or you permit such a person through your ignorance.

This penchant for attributing to God's intention the outcome of human machinations is irritating. Did you also use this illogic of divine destiny when Northern military leaders ran Nigeria?

Naira falls when there is a significant drop in oil price. Nothing to do with GEJ, not that this matters to the mercenary posters on here.

Ibnsultan:
Yesterday it was Bama; it was Gwoza; Abadam; Magumeri; Kukawa;Gamboru; today it is Mubi...BH are gaining grounds while we r being deceived.."

I recognise as a Southerner that most Southerners do not really care about the sufferings of people up North and GEJ's nonchallance, apart from his being out of his depth, partly reflects this.

What I still don't get is why Northern politicians are almost as indifferent as the typical Southerner. People are facing the most unimaginable suffering conceivable
but there seems to be muted reactions to the crisis.

This thread is both hilarious and depressing. A poster told a bare faced lie - that Nigeria did not earn up to $1bn in 1977 - and got at least 13 likes for it. Having told the lie, people like e-gift sought to defend the brazen mendacity but ended up highlighting how innumerate they are.

The reason why it's depressing is that it illustrates the overwhelming power of dishonesty in Nigerian politics. Nigerians simply do not have the intellectual curiousity and the cognitive capacity to distinguish lies from the truth.

saintikechi:
I alway knew the man is a thief, he wants to be president so he can steal more money for himself and his family just like his brother sani abacha did.
sai my yansh "GEJ TILL 2019"

So you condemn Buhari's theft and conclude by shouting "GEJ TILL 2019." Are you against theft or against theft by Northerners?