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Aj8's Posts

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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:27pm On Mar 03, 2024
ExcessKJ:
Good morning. Which online app can be use to monitor stocks on NGX just like Yahoo finance or Google finance. These two doesn't cover NGX. Thank you
Try Reuters

Search. Reuters xxxx stock

E.g Reuters UBA stock
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:16pm On Mar 03, 2024
Emeka1441:
whats your strategy for transcorp?? If you own transcorp plc.. what would be your approach to both of them
Hold

Both would appreciate along with all of TOE’s concerns..UBA, Afr Prud, TRANSCORP Hotel, etc. Geregu should drop a little being a significant competitor to the common good.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:08pm On Mar 03, 2024
customstreet:
You are on point. The next two program of Transcorp Holdings in the near term are as follows

1. Do an MTO of say between 1%-4% as mandated by SEC

2. Share Reconstruction

These two, I am sure will happen from Gravevine
Indeed?

So how does what is about to happen differ from what happened when Transcorp Hotel was spin off from Transcorp Holding? Relax. TRANSCORP Power is NOT a new entity. It’s merely listing as a public company at a price. Nothing else changes. TRANSCORP Holding still has significant interest in TRANSCORP Power and would continue to enjoy all benefits accruing from its interest. If TRANSCORP Power does well as a public company so would all her shareholders including TRANSCORP Holding and by extension shareholders of TRANSCORP Holdings. QED.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:10pm On Mar 02, 2024
Cosmicwill:
I'm new to NSE investment. I bought Dancem at 763.70 with all I the money had now it's 686.70 made losses already. I understand It might rise or fall but the challenge now is that I want to sell it and the broker I used, Trove can't sell as they said there is no buy order yet. what do I do?
I would rather hold. Why sell at a loss? If FO, could invest in Dangote Cement I don’t see why you should sell just yet unless you have a clear view of where else you want to reinvest the funds that would guarantee profit. But best to use registered stockbrokers. Check the Ngx for a comprehensive list. That’s for your next time though.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:52pm On Mar 02, 2024
BabsO2:
Transcorp PLC has the following % ownerships in subsidiaries.
-----------------------------------------------------------------% holding-----------2022-----------2021----------2020
Transcorp Hotels Plc---------------------------------------------------------------76.2 % ------76.2 %--------83.6%
Transcorp Power Limited---------------------------------------------------------51.02 %----- 50.9 %------50.9%
Transcorp Energy Limited Exploration of petroleum product--------99.0 %----- 99.0 %-------99.0%
TransAfam Power Limited Power generation------------------------------ 95.0 % -----95.0 %-------95.0%
Transcorp Properties Limited Building---------------------------------------100.0 % ----100.0 %-----100.0%
Transcorp OPL 281 Nigeria Limited------------------------------------------- 100.00% ---100.00%----100.0%
Terago Commodities Limited------------------------------------------------------95.00% ----95.00%-----95.0%
Transcorp Refining Company Limited------------------------------------------ 100.0 % ----100.0 %---100.0%
Transcorp Trading and Logistics Limited------------------------------------- 100.0 % -----100.0 %----100.0%
Transcorp Telecomms Limited---------------------------------------------------- 100.0 % ----100.0 %----100.0%
Aura by Transcorp Hotel Limited---------------------------------------------------20.0 % ------20.0 %-------0.0%

NB 1 - Transcorp sold some units of Transcorp Hotel Plc in 2021 at N5.43 that's why its holding's there dropped slightly in 2021. Wish it can sell a little right now in Transcorp Hotel at N90 to fund development of other subsidiaries shocked Doing such will create value for Transcorp PLC shareholders in the coming years. I will give Tony a big thumbs up if he pulls such out in coming years.

NB 2 - Transcorp reinvested its dividend from Transcorp Power in 2022 thereby raising its % holding in so doing.

I see hidden value in Transcorp.

Not an investment advice. Do your DD!
Why hidden? Isn’t it obvious?

Kindly note the following.

1. TRANSCORP Group and Trancorp Power are 2 separate but related legal entities. The relationship is that the group owns 50.9% of TRANSCORP Power
2. Shareholders of TRANSCORP Group are not directly shareholders of TRANSCORP Power but have indirect interest through the group’s interest. For the IPO and listing, the Investments and Securities Act and SEC Rules require the approval of the shareholders and board of the issuer to offer shares to the public, not its parent or holding company’s shareholders. Check Companies and Allied Matters Act
3. The previous earnings from dividends and scrip from TRANSCORP Power by TRANSCORP Group, already demonstrate that potential.
4. The catapulting of the valuation of TRANSCORP Power will of course increase that of TRANSCORP Group as long as the current price is below the offer price and the company remains profitable to accrue benefits to her shareholders of which TRANSCORP Group is a majority holder ( at least for now)
5. The capital raised would increase the financial strength of TRANSCORP Power to further undertake and expand their core business of power or whatever else their article allows them to engage in. This also would benefit the TRANSCORP Group even with the dilution the new offer would inevitably introduce to the Group holding incase the Group makes no new purchases. However I foresee the offer not being fully subscribed thereby allowing TRANSCORP Group or whosoever (including TOE) to take up Rights if that alternative is accommodated on the initial offer’s demise.
6. I see huge gains to shareholders of TRANSCORP, as long as the Power space stays viable and profitable…already eluded by TOE in earlier responses that this spin off would happen once the space is right. Like he earlier did with TRANSCORP Hotel.
7. This is not the first of its kind within TRANSCORP Group. Similar occurred in 2015. The spin off of TRANSCORP Hotel from the Group. Mentioned above.


I do not own any shares of TRANSCORP Group but intend acquiring TRANSCORP Power shares. I believe it would at least match Geregu Power PLC if not outpace it.

That’s my take.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:51am On Feb 22, 2024
ositadima1:
How is closing Binance and other crypto trading platforms going to provide long-term solutions to the falling currency? Instead of tackling the root cause decisively, they are intent on preventing the commoners from protecting their money as best as they can. Beside the fact that most of them have millions of dollars stashed away. The moment Mr. Tinubu announced no more subsidies and naira unification, these woes intensified.

We all thought he had concrete plans to cushion the aftereffects. The NGX went on a crazy bull run, but now it has started declining, showing us that he is still adopting the same trial and error approach of the previous administration.

With the increasing prices, it is likely that fewer sales will be made. Maybe the increased revenues I was championing about may not materialize after all. I apologize if I led you astray in any way with my previous posts. embarassed

Below is a simple fishbone chart. The red portions are the root causes as identified by me.

Thank you.
Is there a solution to Nigeria’s Forex issues? Can we achieve a $ to N800.00 in months or even weeks? I think it’s possible if we do the following;

1. Warehouse the Dollar via designated banks. Strict rules will apply to ensure that sales are transparent and targeted at those that really need it . This will give the reins back to CBN via the designated banks. CBN can fix her rates but must meet supply within what I wish to refer to as emergency transfusion period. This will make speculation unnecessary and unrewarding in the short term. Sadly but inevitably, the initial funds may have to be borrowed but tied to secured sources of forex earnings. More like a modified share conversion strategy.
2. Transfusion period would be theoretically the period it would take Nigeria to improve organic dollar earnings through manufacturing, production, mining, petrochemical, FDI, etc.
For the above strategy to be effective and efficient, the supply side has to be fixed even if as an interim borrowing while resources that drive dollar earnings are brought onboard more like the case in a blood transfusion. Blood is given as the body works on organically producing its own.
3. Cut wastages, spendings that fuel inflation and weaken our currency.

Who will ….?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 1:29pm On Feb 12, 2024
May God grant the families of the departed the fortitude to bear such an irreparable loss and grant them comfort which only He is able to give in such sad times. May their soul rest in peace. Amen.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 5:22pm On Feb 10, 2024
The beginning of a bear market is simply smart money taking profits, then forcing prices down for a a new bargain. Once they hit their target price, they will make their entry and drive the price up again as a Bull market. This cycle will always be repeated as long as the hunger for profits exists. Smart money will always hunt for bargains before earnings. The news is only a camouflage of real intention. Where there is no news, they will surely create one. Smart money buys on the way down, not up. Look for bargains too. EPS will always guide. Buy also at a bargain. Bears favor those with cash. To play with the “big boys” is to have cash to buy when they are buying. Yes, in a bear market. Par example, imagine smart money selling off a stock say at 34.00 and force the price down to say 22.15 so as to buy it back before earnings. It's all about profits. That's how it works. The rest just camouflage.

Happy weekend.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:37am On Feb 08, 2024
aj8:
For UBA, my eyes are glued to the circled support /resistance levels (refer to chart). If earnings/dividends are good, I expect it to resume the major channel . I feel it may move to a then b maybe c if the dividend is huge and then all the way down to e through d. Just a hypothesis. Of course, movement will not be in a straight line, expected to bounce off support and resistance on its way up or down. Buying at support and sell-off at resistance seems to be the norm for now.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:26am On Feb 08, 2024
For UBA, my eyes are glued to the circled support /resistance levels (refer to chart). If earnings/dividends are good, I expect it to resume the major channel . I feel it may move to a then b maybe c if the dividend is huge and then all the way down to e through d. Just a hypothesis. Of course, movement will not be in a straight line, expected to bounce off support and resistance on its way up or down. Buying at support and sell-off at resistance seems to be the norm for now.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:27pm On Jan 31, 2024
Can we please discuss the CBN circular on Harmonization of Reporting Requirements on Foreign Currency Exposures of Banks ? Considering the havoc it caused.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:19am On Jan 31, 2024
Laso09:
I have read your earlier posts on this.
What you normally do is to multiply the best quarter earnings(eps) by 4 but in this case you are multiplying the full year eps by 4.
Quarterly x4 and x4 again.

Check it again.
First 4 is to derive the est FY. But with FY just x4
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:13am On Jan 31, 2024
SAK:
I am also surprised with the calculation,why multiplying by 4 again ,when the unaudited result is for the whole year??

Why did you multiply 0.31 by 4.
Is the 0.31 not for the whole year?
Read my earlier post my brother. Meanwhile the company is on full bid. And shouldn’t rest till it crosses EPS X4 .
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:11pm On Jan 30, 2024
Streetinvestor2:
is this applicable to just insurance sector. I don't see it working for banking and big conglomerates into building materials and others
Read my earlier posts


True for most sectors under Main Board and Premium. The common goal of investing is to make money. For Growth stocks also read how I modify it slightly. However if dividend payment is poor aim for 75% of the target. The companies with massive FDI will rise well above this target so even more rewarding getting in before foreign interest still using the rule. I don’t buy into any company except it’s “ on sale” way below estimated/actual FY x4 . However not all companies flashing a sudden fantastic EPS is investable. It still must demonstrate that the earning is organic, driven by fundamentals and sound restructuring or a drive on a business model that would guarantee sustainability going forward.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:56pm On Jan 30, 2024
Laso09:
Why did you multiply 0.31 by 4.
Is the 0.31 not for the whole year?
Yes.

You may need to read through my earlier posts to get a hang of the strategy. The figure is derived historically from over the years studying the NSE / NGX stock price behavior. It harbors our average collective investment goals of at least a 25% return on investment. This is largely the case except when in an unforeseen economic recession/ mayhem.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:40pm On Jan 30, 2024
Prices are pushed up by first value, then sentiments and lastly stupidity driven by ignorance or greed.








Common Sense Strategy. keeps it simple.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:33pm On Jan 30, 2024
Common sense target for Veritas Kapital Assurance is N1.20. Good buy at current price of 0.55.

0.31 x 4 =1.24

Target Range N1.24-N1.55

Better still if they pay a dividend of 5-7 k in which case could target upper range.


Please do your DD.

Even with RED across board, EPS is King. Stocks hardly fall below EPS x 4. That’s the beauty of the strategy. Any one significantly below that is a BUY. Just Common Sense.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 1:32pm On Jan 26, 2024
aj8:
So what is the EPS ? on 6.26 billion units if I may ask?
Beware of any company that wants you to calculate their EPS yourself. Hide as much as you want EPS is EPS. YOU CANT PAY WHAT YOU DONT EARN EXCEPT ITS IN YOUR RESERVES.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:57pm On Jan 25, 2024
KarlTom:
The PBT is 350.8% y-o-y

That's gargantuan grin cool

Also noteworthy are the reduction in cost of sales
So what is the EPS ? on 6.26 billion units if I may ask?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:13pm On Jan 23, 2024
chunkuli:
[@aj8 trying to reach out to you abeg my bro say hi to Solaralph2002@gmail.com
Okay I will. Hi here too.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:08pm On Jan 23, 2024
UBA 2023

If the pattern breaks in 2024, it would probably mean a fantastically improved earnings that meets market expectations.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:05pm On Jan 23, 2024
UBA 2022

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:04pm On Jan 23, 2024
UBA 2021

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:03pm On Jan 23, 2024
UBA 2020

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:56pm On Jan 23, 2024
Relax. All happening is usual and expected. Very historical. The bulls are not done yet till earnings. The first pullback into the year is like this. Watch out for volume dissociation for the rest of the week to give some clarity. Like I said earlier expect a pullback after the first weekly red. It’s as if stock markets are spirits. They behave the same. Watch Volumes vs Price that’s the way to go. I will share that of UBA as a case study.

In another post, I will share my Volume vs. price pattern for UBA for 2023-date. This should help to better understand the movement. Enjoy the pullback and reposition. Great opportunities all over.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:08pm On Jan 18, 2024
UBA support at N30.80 based on Volume price dissociation.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:52pm On Jan 17, 2024
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:41pm On Jan 17, 2024
stcool:
I can't tell, but let me get the units I need first then see how it goes! Its a long term play for me unless it takes another run, I exit if profit is good.
May be it’s best to wait till the Q4 results since it’s for the long term. We are like in injury time. Really not the best time to accumulate. Aim must always be to buy at a discount of value or at worst at value. The aim of DD is to improve vision.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:59pm On Jan 17, 2024
[/b]
Coolcash1:
Still looking for cheap banking stock to buy, consider StanbicIBTC and thank me later. grin

However, massive correction might begin end of the month as majority of the stocks are crazily overbought.

Stay on guard!
[b]
huh??
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:45pm On Jan 15, 2024
eziokwunwoko:
What is your Common Sense Target of UBA.
Please reply me
Wouldn’t make sense joining now. The idea is to buy when there is a dissociation between EPS/DIVIDEND PROJECTION. With a 2024/2025 FY organic EPS forecast of above N9.00, UBA shouldn’t play below N36.00. ( i.e 9x4 =36) . Range is however N36.00-N45.00 based on my calculations of price of N(x4 -x5 of FY EPS) range. Assumption is that dividends do not disappoint.

Please note. The FY 2023 even if 19.00 will not be organic, though may fuel sentiments to push the price way higher.

Historically, it would be wise to sell once the first weekly before the earnings in 2024 go red to buy back at a much lower price unless you wish to hold till dividends.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:25am On Jan 15, 2024
aj8:
My common sense target for TIP is N1.92. Range N1.92-N2.40. Bought some on Friday @ N1.01 . Will buy more only below this price.
Target reached. New data on earnings will determine the wisdom of holding on beyond N2.40. Will hold on to this for now. May dip a bit for profit taking. Buy the dip when it happens.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:06am On Jan 11, 2024
Streetinvestor2:
Nice one.The bench mark for Mr T for uba will be #30.He will want to remain in that 1 trillion naira capitalization. Which equally goes for access and fbn
Makes a lot of sense if with a N3.00 Dividend and maybe even a bonus. grin . Recapitalization also historically is associated with price appreciation. Hopefully the economy will continue to improve without any sweeping global catastrophe. The chart attached might interest you.

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