₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
is this applicable to just insurance sector. I don't see it working for banking and big conglomerates into building materials and others

Read my earlier posts


True for most sectors under Main Board and Premium. The common goal of investing is to make money. For Growth stocks also read how I modify it slightly. However if dividend payment is poor aim for 75% of the target. The companies with massive FDI will rise well above this target so even more rewarding getting in before foreign interest still using the rule. I don’t buy into any company except it’s “ on sale” way below estimated/actual FY x4 . However not all companies flashing a sudden fantastic EPS is investable. It still must demonstrate that the earning is organic, driven by fundamentals and sound restructuring or a drive on a business model that would guarantee sustainability going forward.

Laso09:
Why did you multiply 0.31 by 4.
Is the 0.31 not for the whole year?

Yes.

You may need to read through my earlier posts to get a hang of the strategy. The figure is derived historically from over the years studying the NSE / NGX stock price behavior. It harbors our average collective investment goals of at least a 25% return on investment. This is largely the case except when in an unforeseen economic recession/ mayhem.

Prices are pushed up by first value, then sentiments and lastly stupidity driven by ignorance or greed.








Common Sense Strategy. keeps it simple.

Common sense target for Veritas Kapital Assurance is N1.20. Good buy at current price of 0.55.

0.31 x 4 =1.24

Target Range N1.24-N1.55

Better still if they pay a dividend of 5-7 k in which case could target upper range.


Please do your DD.

Even with RED across board, EPS is King. Stocks hardly fall below EPS x 4. That’s the beauty of the strategy. Any one significantly below that is a BUY. Just Common Sense.

aj8:
So what is the EPS ? on 6.26 billion units if I may ask?

Beware of any company that wants you to calculate their EPS yourself. Hide as much as you want EPS is EPS. YOU CANT PAY WHAT YOU DONT EARN EXCEPT ITS IN YOUR RESERVES.

KarlTom:
The PBT is 350.8% y-o-y

That's gargantuan

Also noteworthy are the reduction in cost of sales

So what is the EPS ? on 6.26 billion units if I may ask?

chunkuli:
[@aj8 trying to reach out to you abeg my bro say hi to Solaralph2002@gmail.com

Okay I will. Hi here too.

UBA 2023

If the pattern breaks in 2024, it would probably mean a fantastically improved earnings that meets market expectations.

UBA 2022

UBA 2021

UBA 2020

Relax. All happening is usual and expected. Very historical. The bulls are not done yet till earnings. The first pullback into the year is like this. Watch out for volume dissociation for the rest of the week to give some clarity. Like I said earlier expect a pullback after the first weekly red. It’s as if stock markets are spirits. They behave the same. Watch Volumes vs Price that’s the way to go. I will share that of UBA as a case study.

In another post, I will share my Volume vs. price pattern for UBA for 2023-date. This should help to better understand the movement. Enjoy the pullback and reposition. Great opportunities all over.

UBA support at N30.80 based on Volume price dissociation.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/114_NAHCO_PLC_-_Notification_of_Share_Dealing_by_Insider_-_VAO.pdf



Insider at N31.00

stcool:
I can't tell, but let me get the units I need first then see how it goes! Its a long term play for me unless it takes another run, I exit if profit is good.

May be it’s best to wait till the Q4 results since it’s for the long term. We are like in injury time. Really not the best time to accumulate. Aim must always be to buy at a discount of value or at worst at value. The aim of DD is to improve vision.

eziokwunwoko:
What is your Common Sense Target of UBA.
Please reply me

Wouldn’t make sense joining now. The idea is to buy when there is a dissociation between EPS/DIVIDEND PROJECTION. With a 2024/2025 FY organic EPS forecast of above N9.00, UBA shouldn’t play below N36.00. ( i.e 9x4 =36) . Range is however N36.00-N45.00 based on my calculations of price of N(x4 -x5 of FY EPS) range. Assumption is that dividends do not disappoint.

Please note. The FY 2023 even if 19.00 will not be organic, though may fuel sentiments to push the price way higher.

Historically, it would be wise to sell once the first weekly before the earnings in 2024 go red to buy back at a much lower price unless you wish to hold till dividends.

aj8:
My common sense target for TIP is N1.92. Range N1.92-N2.40. Bought some on Friday @ N1.01 . Will buy more only below this price.

Target reached. New data on earnings will determine the wisdom of holding on beyond N2.40. Will hold on to this for now. May dip a bit for profit taking. Buy the dip when it happens.

Streetinvestor2:
Nice one.The bench mark for Mr T for uba will be #30.He will want to remain in that 1 trillion naira capitalization. Which equally goes for access and fbn

Makes a lot of sense if with a N3.00 Dividend and maybe even a bonus. . Recapitalization also historically is associated with price appreciation. Hopefully the economy will continue to improve without any sweeping global catastrophe. The chart attached might interest you.

yMcy56:
Happy New Year Sir!
Good to read this reassuring post from the TA Expert.
More blessings.

The companies concerned have denied the rumour of arrest anyway.
I even wonder why this should be a big issue in market.

https://www.nairaland.com/7965896/md-neither-detained-nor-arrested

Historically, the market dips about this time for a good number of stocks. Anything can be reckoned as news just so that the drivers can force the market into a dip after a spike to take profits and reposition for dividends. I watch out for volume price dissociation. I sold UBA at 32.80 and bought it back at 29.35. This strategy however can be risky because the price can dip and climb so quickly making re-entry at a cheaper price impossible. For UBA I was prepared to exit at N32.80 completely and only buy back if it dipped after hitting resistance. Fortunately, I bought back taking some profits and repositioned.

Deadlytruth:
One of the most painful experiences in this market. One gleefully exits a stock for another only to see that which one exited rallying while that which one went into stagnant or even dropping.

How is it painful? If there were no prospects of appreciation so who would you sell to? Who buys with the hope of losing? Rather it’s the beauty of the market. Profit is profit. Any complaints beyond profit is….


DD with understanding keeps one on track to minimize losses. When in doubt ask. “Onye ajuju a na efu uzo”

To all of us,
Those who give us correct advice
Those who add drama
Those who make as cautious
Those who make us
Those are
Those we would like to swear for but still hold our peace.

To you all that make me look forward to visiting this forum every day

HAPPY NEW YEAR.

May we all be profitable beyond our expectations. May we all have the peace and health to enjoy it in Jesus Name. Amen.

Loco

sorry to hear of your misfortune. We all owe all we have to God from the tiniest to the largest . God will replenish all and add to overflowing.

If it’s good for Fidelity ,it’s good for the banks. UBA!!!!

KayOn1:
I thought you said best qtr EPS which would have been 1.03 for qtr2 without a caveat.
Just trying to point out that no method is foolproof & newbies should always do their DD and not depend on handouts.
Your inputs are highly appreciated.
🙏

Thank you.
UPL is not a growth stock. .

Common Sense Strategy

KayOn1:
@aj8

So with your best qtr eps × 4 × 4 × 0.8, what do you think will now be the fair value of UPL?

***
I have UPL but I will not use that metric to value it as the price will be ...

DD advised.

EPS for 6 months =0.80
X2 for 1 year =1.60
X4 for target =1.60 x4 = 6.40
Dividend payment is poor so apply 75% =6.40 x 75% = N4.80

Target is N4.80 if they continue to do well. However range is N4.80 -N6.40. Dividends may take awhile to climb. However to maintain that price, they must declare at least 20k dividends.





Due diligence as always.

yMcy56:
It seems one heavy weight is exiting (or cross dealing) and preventing the price from moving up, just like FCMB....
One can never know what these guys are up to sometimes.........it could be to keep the share price down to accumulate more or for whatever reasons best known to them

* Besides, JAIZ has a special situation which I don't know how the moneybag Alhajis are going to handle yet....... concerning how the recapitalization affects the bank and considering that it's an interest free bank...
*Also, the right issue might still be a factor keeping it low for now..

* One thing I Blvd is that they'll surely have their way around all these and the share price can't be kept low for ever...,...JAIZ is undervalued @CP. (1.50/1.60).

* Maybe the experts and TA gurus can help us out the more here.
* Above is just my opinion. There may be +ve twist at any time.

For Jaiz, there’s only one way out. I believe the clue is in the news already.

My Common sense target for GTCO

Best quarter organic EPS 3.1

3.1x 4 x 4 = N49.60

The FBHN trajectory makes common sense only through a bonus issuance. May be a dividend of N1.50 and a 1:4 bonus in which case a price target of N30.00-N32.00 would make sense.

Please this is not an investment advice. Hopefully an intelligent guess.

Heishere:
Still a bit confused boss. Why are you multiplying the EPS by 16?

0.12 is for a quarter….use best quarter as earlier discussed on the premise that growth stocks are meant to grow
4 quarters = 1 year =0.48
X4 of the estimate FY i.e 0.48 =1.92

aj8:
NNFM target is close. Will offload once it attains N40.00 . A price above N40.00 though possible , will not influence my holding on to the stock. I will only consider re-entry if EPS for Q3 is above N8.00 but will re-enter only if price drops below N25.00.

I sold NNFM today at 39.60. Profit 103%. Best to sell when within target. Stick to your plan unless it’s now part of a new plan.

Recall how we started. See strategy below. Bought at N19.50

aj8:
For growth stocks I use eps x4 as target. I buy only when the price is significantly below this. However I calculate the estimated FY eps on the best quarter x 4 . E.g TIP . Buying only if the future looks bright.

My common sense target for TIP is N1.92. Range N1.92-N2.40. Bought some on Friday @ N1.01 . Will buy more only below this price.

kalkah:
Good dividends are mostly in terms of unbroken dividend payment for at least 5 years. Some analyst believe if a company cannot pay the dividend then the fundamentals is not good except for companies categorized as growth company.

AJ8 will still reply. This is a student response.
quote author=robobo post=127264615].

Hello Chief

what would you term a good dividend payment history?
is it only in term of amount? or it is in terms of % of EPS or in terms of comparision to peers in same industry? or in term of years of unbroken payments? or in term of growth to the dividend being paid?

would appreciate if you share

For growth stocks I use eps x4 as target. I buy only when the price is significantly below this. However I calculate the estimated FY eps on the best quarter x 4 . E.g TIP . Buying only if the future looks bright.