₦airaland Forum

Tifay:
Like I called it since week 2, the winner has already been chosen. The only person who has a remote chance is possibly Aikou.

And for some reason, it might happen. Cos with the constant switch of bottom 3, I think people may do a lot of group/gang voting in the last week to choose a winner they are all comfortable with

I agree. I said it from the beginning that Temi abi Temu's lead is too narrow, someone will eventually overtake her and Aikou has

scondy:
Can temi nkem also be muted...Cos whars with the noise ?

Geez I am surprised u dint ve a problem with her noise ...she is same as those u detest ..

Don't mind that hypocrite

Hazardfan1:
She'll still win regardless

Aikou is winning

thatigboman:
neche fans are angry with blue for becoming friends with shiba. It's even isoko local fowl that they are supporting

But I told you before na. Sheba was her enemy, flora was sorrowful when she left. Why not toe the same line

echoxyz:
Please remove kogi, I strongly disagree.

Why so? The christians there can give him

Eriokanmi:
Just rent a crowd for 5k, give them jersey and food, then do a drone shot to make it seem the people are really in support of a fake leader, just to intimidate their likes

Tinubu will stilllose kaduna imce againand it will be massivethis time..

He will still beat obingo there

AMINDA:
Now, compare and contrast with this one done by the ADC in Kaduna South today. This is the difference between organic and sponsored. Following the deployment of policemen who teargassed and arrested ADC members who came out for a walk yesterday, the men, women, and youth of Kaduna South came out in a show of force for the ADC. Just like in Benue, Tinubu and his NADECO democrats should realise that attempts to intimidate and stifle all opposition across the country is ill-advised and will be counterproductive.

Again, ADC is out in Kaduna, and again this time without seeking anyone’s clearance.

If they think intimidation and force will stop us, let them try again. We are not afraid, and we are fully prepared for whatever APC chooses to throw at us.

If you want peace, we give you…

— Abdullahi {ATIKULATED SOLDIER} (@abdullahiisha25) September 12, 2026

Atiku is losing kaduna south massively

AMINDA:
No, we aren't but you will agree with me that it is tiring to come on nairaland and see several mentions from troll accounts that seem to have been created for that sole purpose. Surely, a Forum like nairaland should be for debating positions and ideas, not for cultivating troll farms and bots.

@ topic, There will be several defections to the APC in the coming days due to the funds for inducement that is being released by the party. It changes nothing at the end of the day. Save for a few, many Nigerians already know who they will be voting for by now except something drastic happens to change the polity.

You have said this since January. Keep hoping until your mushroom party is emptied

Ikengawo:
Who are the people who believe Tinubu is more popular in the North than Obi? You're in for a surprise

What did obi score up North

gammarays:
Till then we'll see
Kaduna south and Kaduna as a whole doesn't have any issues with Obi. Kaduna south loathes El rufai.
Let's wait till results. This coming election will shock APC more than the previous one

It will only shock obi

givedemwotowoto:
I am expecting Tinubu's votes to reduce in the NW, NE, and some NC states.

Reason is that Tinubu doesn't have Buhari again so his NW and NE votes will mostly go to Atiku.

Atiku won Katsina even when Tinubu had Buhari, I expect Atiku's margin of win to go up in the NW and NE because they will prefer a Northerner as President to a Southerner, especially a Northerner promising to bring back subsidy.

So Tinubu will still have 25% but much lower votes than 2023.

I expect Kwankwaso's Kano and environs votes to increase because with the ticket, non-indigenes especially in kano and Kaduna don't need to travel back to their states anymore where they didn't register to vote (fear of post election violence), they will stay back to vote because Obi is in alliance with a strong Northern candidate and Kwankwasiyya is a strong protective force.

In the South, the hardship is hitting hard, these people are not built to see suffering as a way of life so the anger will drive votes against Tinubu. Note, I said Tinubu, not APC. APC can win state elections even in the SE, but Presidential election is different.

Tinubu will definitely fight back with money which will help to stabilize his votes mostly in the SW and possibly some parts of SS and SE, but the number of people with PVCs this time who are ready to vote him out will increase.

In 2023, people weren't ready. Many didn't register to vote or get their PVCs, so by the time Obi campaign took off and became popular, it was late to register to vote. But after 2023, they have seen that the ticket is serious and can win with huge voter turnout. 2027 will be different for them.

Is it only buhari that gave him those votes in core north? Several factors gave him those votes and most of those factors are there. Even if he loses votes to Atiku there, atiku can't get votes outside core north so it is a waste. Atiku winning Katsina shows you buhari was probably not supporting him. Besides he won Katsina with just 5k margin. All those people that helped Atiku win are now in APC.

A lot of northerners still believe in zoning and will prefer Tinubu to finish his tenure. Most northern politicians are eyeing 2031, atiku is a stumbling bloc so that point is invalid. People like Shettima will fight Atiku to a standstill in NE.. Tinubu can afford to get lower votes in core north and still win. His path is the easiest.
Kwankwaso as a candidate won with 400k margin. As a running mate, this will nosedive. Many of his supporters don't like obi, he said so himself. Many have decamped to APC. He can only win Kano narrowly for obi and outside kano, nothing. Tinubu votes will definitely increase in NC while obi and Atiku votes will reduce offseting any deficit from core north.
Majority want to vote out tinubu just like 2023 but unfortunately, they will divide votes. The voter registration in 2026 was quite low compared to 2022 so expect a lower turnout. 2027 will mirror 2023. Obi has been underwhelming and disappointing in his interviews, atiku desperate as usual so there's no urgency in voting out Tinubu

ogascomax:
You should be saying that to Tinubu.

What is atiku pathway

Addme:
Most of the north central that you listed.
He will score higher in Kano due to Kwakwanso's influence then he will have a massive show in Lagos. He may not win this time but he will compete with PBAT

Yes he will come close in Kano, either winning or losing narrowly. The supporters of Shekarau should give Tinubu the edge. Obi will certainly not win Tinubu nationally and won't compete like 2023 except for Kano

gammarays:
Benue
Nasarawa
Plateau
Kano
Taraba
FCT
Bauchi
Kaduna

Kaduna will vote Peter Obi as President and return Una Sani as Governor

Obi will get big votes in Kogi state this time. Obi has agreed on 4 year tenure. Other politicians will join him on this.

APC will rely on their power, money, military and connections to their detriment. In fact their warlords will help their downfall. This is what will usher in a new dispensation. We pray they don't disappoint us!

A breeze will sweep across the national assembly. If some of these popular legislators return, they'll floor members.

If these are the states obi will get the spread, he will certainly lose. If kaduna are voting Uba Sani, then they will vote Tinubu too. No chance for obi. There's no how obi will get 25% in Bauchi except he aligns with Dogara who controls the three Christian speaking lgas

givedemwotowoto:
Your math is HIGHLY INCORRECT. Tinubu can have the highest spread and still come second or third:

Peter Obi:
Wins 13 states (12 + FCT), gets 25% in 16 states, wins highest number of votes

Atiku:
Wins 13 states, gets 25% in 21 states, wins second highest or highest no of votes

Tinubu:
Wins 11 states, gets 25% in 29 states, wins third or second highest no of votes

You are mathematically correct but this is realistically almost impossible. It has never happened in Nigeria history. The way our demographice work would not support such outcome.
If obi gets 25% in 21 and Tinubu gets the spread in 29, those votes in additional 8 states will outweigh obi's votes. Tinubu getting the spread means he is picking more votes nationally and coming second which is additional votes.
Again, tinubu is certain to get significant votes in both north and south, atiku only in core north and obi only in core south. Therefore, tinubu will surpass them vote wise

givedemwotowoto:
Realistically, nobody is supposed to win the Presidential election on first ballot.

Tinubu is expected to have the highest 25% coverage among the 3, but he's also expected to come second or third depending on what happens in the NW

What happens in the NW won't deter his victory so far as he gets at least 30%. There's no way you will get the highest spread and not come first

ExudeLoveToAll:
were you not in Nigeria when the courts said irev results not admissible in court? You are feigning ignorance?

Yes I followed the court proceedings. Obi never produced any result showing he won Lagos by a bigger margin whether on Irev or manual

FSBoperator:
Zero chance in Kaduna courtesy of his obidient mob insulting Southern Kaduna people , Bishop Kukah and the current minister of Defense.

Remove Benue, Taraba, Kogi from your list

Kano? You must be joking.

He could get 25% in Plateau and FCT but I don't see him getting any meaningful votes in Nasarawa.

He will get in Benue because of the large Christian( Catholic population). He will get in nasarawa because of Karu, Akwanga and kokona. Kwankwaso will surely give him 40% of Kano. I can concede for kaduna and Taraba

IGBOSON1:
Hehehehehe

Talk about blatant...in-your-face rigging! They took the bull by the horns and went for broke with the 2023 elections in Lagos state!

Regarding your last sentence, they may be able to get away with it in their own south-west home-turf....minus Lagos owing to its multi-ethnic/cosmopolitan demographics! But the key to whether they can get away with it nationally and steal the next election, like they stole the last one, lies with the core north! I mention the core north as the key in all this because Tinubu and his gang can't try it in the south-east, south-south and large parts of the middle-belt! If the core north wants to stand for the truth and ensure A FREE, FAIR AND TRANSPARENT ELECTION, then it's curtains for Tinubu....no matter the malfeasance he gets away with in his own region! Something tells me next time around the core north will not tolerate being taken for a ride, and will demand votes count! If validly cast votes in their region favor Tinubu, then so be it, but no rigging should be tolerated as no one is anyone else's slave!

But you know tinubu will always trash obi core north

seunmsg:
Realistically, he stands a good chance of getting 25% in the six states and FCT that you listed. He barely got around 10% in Kogi in 2023 so there is no magic that will take him to 25% in the state in 2027. He has lost massive ground to Tinubu in southern kaduna so I don't see any miracle that can take him to 25% in Kaduna state this time around.

Overall, Peter Obi still has no realistic pathway to victory just like Atiku. In the south, he can only get 25% in 12 states. In the north, he can only get it in 7 states. So, that brings him to 19. Where will he get the remaining six states from?

You are right though I think he will outscore Atiku this time.

Validated:
NDC will get 25% in Kebbi, Kaduna, Jigawa, and in the South, he will all SS and SE and 25% in Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Kogi, and Niger. Obi will win overall popular votes.
Tinubu can only win in SW states, scratch some votes in the North. Mark you, vote suppression is not going to work, except INEC switch off server again, which will trigger another ENDSARS-like protest in Nigeria.

What did obi and Atiku get in Kebbi, Jigawa and kaduna in 2023 combined

WENGERNOMICS:
Lemme help you reframe your question: Which Northern States will Obi/Kwankwanso get if INEC and Tinubu are somehow convinced against vote manipulation and changing figures? He will get it from at least 15 northern states and 19 southern states. But we know Tinubu and INEC will not allow that. On election day 2023, a PDP chief agent in Lagos state reported that Labour party had over 900,000 votes in Lagos and APC had about 150,000 votes. But when the results were read, it was Labour 600,000 and APC 550,000. So we already know what will happen in 2027 . APC will rig and there is nothing anybody can do about it

A pdp agent? Why was it not presented in court? What result did the Lp agent present

DeloitteNG:
Araga, Ricky, Chisom Chuka and Bells Goodbye

I know bells is gone. But I'll like Abi to be among

Benue
Nasarawa
Plateau
Kano
Taraba
FCT

He has a small chance in kaduna and kogi

MamBi:
Are you sure Aikou is a pleaser? Aikou that told Chimsom that it looks like he was instigating behind Tram's back? That if he has issues with anybody, then it is more honourable to talk directly to that person? He might not do much but I don't think he is a "pleaser" at all.

Aikou is damn blunt. Chimsom is shamelessly petty

FarahAideed:
I know him personally ,dude is nice and super rich

Atiku is finished

Eriokanmi:
I'm seeing the renewed hope atm cards flying all over alimosho CDAs daily, they even mistakenly included my name for pick up. I hope the money will be up to 100k so that I can use it to fuel my vehicle for a week. These people think we're stupid. In their mind,Nigerians are so hungry so, by giving them money, they'd vote them. See the way wicked souls are thinking? After dashing us money, the masses will still suffer for another 4 years. Nothing in the hospltals, no drugs, no equipment. This is the height of wickedness. We're waiting.

We will collect their money and still vote them out. I'm talking of Lagos oo, I don't know of other states. It's part of what they stole from us afterall. I've never seen such a desperate party as the apc under tinubu. The osun treatment will be a tip of the iceberg.They know they've failed in all areas so they're now thinking they can buy our conscience with money? SMH!

What of the Ekiti treatment

givedemwotowoto:
Atiku will win the NE again because most NE people prefer President to VP position.

Kwankwaso will go beyond Kano because now he is on a strong national ticket. Also, with Buhari gone and Tinubu performing badly, he will lose more votes to Atiku and Kwankwaso

Atiku will win NW because of Tinubu's poor performance.

Tinubu will lose a lot of votes in the SS and SE becuase of poor performance. He may lose Lagos as well even as incument President.

How can kwankwaso go beyond Kano when a a candidate he didn't? Are you blind that many of his followers dislike obi? Obi is not wanted in the north west sir...it is between tinubu and Atiku
Tinubu will must certainly win south south. Obi will win SE but Tinubu will get more votes. Tinubu will surely win Lagos. There is no pathway for Atiku and obi

givedemwotowoto:
Tinubu needed him after Buhari passed because he (Tinubu) became vulnerable in the NW where he got his highest votes in the North in 2023

Kwankwaso had his own demands which included becoming VP but Tinubu couldn’t risk removing Shettima because it gives Atiku full control of the NE

He had to make a gamble and say No to Kwankwaso, and Kwankwaso being smart knows Tinubu now has a vacuum in the NW so he decides to combine forces with Obi to exploit that vulnerability.

Atiku being in the game further erodes Tinubu’s votes in the North and limit his chances

Beyond Kano, where else will kwankwaso get votes? Which states aside Adamawa will give Atiku heavy votes?

AMINDA:
He won Borno with less than 20,000 votes in 2023 and lost Katsina when he and Kashim Shettima were more popular than they are today.

He won Borno by over 60k and lost Katsina by 6k. Atiku was more popular then, tinubu was never popular

ogascomax:
We know how Atiku flogged Tinubu in Ketsina State. He should ensure that he paid them their money oo.

10k votes is flogging!

Agbgift:
Esan is Edo central, while Estako is Edo north.
Esan has about 4 local government under them. While Estako has more than three local government under them.

Esan has 5 lgas, etsako 3