₦airaland Forum

fergie001:
The SS & NC will hand Jags victory!

NC not SS

onatisi:
this is the reason why tinubu needs the south and peter obi is giving him serious problems , the north will not support him like they did in 2023 , he needs a united strong bloc votes from the south , and in the south , peter obi is still very string and he will cut those votes

He will bury obi up North

Svoboda:
Cc. Akpakomiza2
What sayest thee now?

This is the man that countered Jingir last month. There's no way all the 500 scholars will support Tinubu

OriOko88:
Obi will not see 50k votes in osun. Atiku and Tinubu will run neck and neck cos of Atiku's wife osun background and Aregbe factor.

What influence does Atiku wife have in osun? Is it Aregbe that can't deliver his unit or his candidate?

WhizdomXX:
I thought we are doing postulation cuz Same thing was said in 2023.

I mean obi can't get 25% in Bauchi or any core northern state outside kano

WhizdomXX:
Zamfara. Niger and Kwara seem more realistic. Why is no one talking about Bauchi?

Nothing for obi

OriOko88:
By the way Tinubu doesn't see Obi as a serious contender. Lol. He rarely talks about him like he does Atiku.

Obi is not going anywhere next year. Even him knows he can't win

What will obi score in osun

Penguin2:
Obi won Benue in 2023 and they changed the result against him.

He will win it again.

Not without Ortom

jojo1415:
APC wil be in for a long run in the North....those guys up north r not joking ooooohhh!!!

Votes will be divided

Nice2023:
In this north wey we dey...na only mumu politicians dey talk about APC.

Nigerians are more angry here in the north than any where else...I pity those who will bring violence here,u will just waste ur life.

This place isn't Lagos where u will not be allowed to vote by agbero...here na aura for aura,fight for fight and beating for beating.

No corper can influence election here...and the serving politicians know this too. That is why some northern governors are doing hide and seek for Tinubu...e go clear soon.

Which northern governors is doing hide and seek

Moroccoguy:
Come Fakunle estate

But Atiku won osun 2023

Penguin2:
First, why would Binani support Atiku? Does ADC not have a governorship candidate in Adamawa? Will Atiku support Binani over ADC candidate if he wins? The answer is no. So, Binani knows that her destiny is tied to Obi’s victory in the presidential election. Similarly there are other NDC candidates seeking other elective positions. These people know that Obi has to win for them to win.

In Taraba, I can tell you Obi won but results were changed for Atiku. But with strong NDC candidates Obi’s votes will be protected.

You need to understand that votes were massively manipulated in 2023 because parties believed INEC would transmit votes but that will no longer happen in 2027.

Whether elections where transmitted or not, obi lost. Apart from rivers, no other place obi could prove rigging in. If actually he was rigged in Taraba, it goes to prove how powerful the governor is that's why I told you tinubu will take zamfara. The Nnpp candidate can't do anything. I already told you that these Fulani guys are supremacists. They will always support their Fulani people. Can't you see Tambuwal? Tinubu is lucky because of if several factors.
Binani stood in APC and supported Atiku despite tinubu Muslim Muslim ticket. Why would she support Obi? No matter what Obi polls in Adamawa Taraba, it won't change anything. Highest, he can overtake Atiku

Moroccoguy:
The same osun state that I'm staying or the one you lives

Where in osun are you

onatisi:
not totally impossible but very difficult and tough

Not difficult. He doesn't need to win the north,35% is ok

onatisi:
the north will mobilize against tinubu in the north , reason why he needs a united south votes , but that too isnt certain .

Tinubu will win the North

Svoboda:
Don't get yourself worked up. He says he's got evidence.

It has to show tinubu is clearly 90. In any case, it is useless. It is not a crime to be overage or above the constitutional age but only a crime if you are below 40. Atiku doesn't know what he is doing. Even the subsidy matter, he is recanting..
I even learnt Kebbi ADC is in crisis

Svoboda:
That's essentially what Atiku means. If everything about your history is cloudy, people will increasingly become doubtful of your age. Obj and Buhari attended known schools and had recognizable classmates. In order words, they respectively had peers. At least we know Soyinka, Abiola and Obj attended the same school at some point. With that we know Objs age range. That's like the age grade system in our villages. Has any random person stepped out for once to claim he and Tinubus were age or school mates? That should imply something is considerably wrong.

We can't work on speculations and hearsays, it's why Atiku lost in court. Atiku made an allegation and it is up to him to prove him which he cant.

Penguin2:
The question is can he retain all the 9 states he won in 2023?

Can he win Zamfara again?

Can he win Jigawa and Kebbi and Gombe?

He will certainly win Zamfara and Jigawa. He has a chance of winning Kebbi with Aliero on his side. He can't win Gombe especially with Goje aggrieved. Tinubu is in a very good place electorally, he doesn't need to win those northern states. He just needs substantial votes

SalamRushdie:
Well he will get 25 percent in most southern states , now tell us which how many northern states Tinubu can win

Mention the southern states. Are you not tired of Atiku ? Tinubu will win at least 8 northern states

seunmsg:
Jang is in Wike’s Rainbow coalition. He will be settled to work for Tinubu since PDP has no presidential candidate. I don’t see Jang supporting Peter Obi.


Nasarawa has always been difficult for APC because of Karu local government. In 2019, an APC orchestrated violence led to the cancellation of votes from almost half of the polling units in Mararaba. That was the only time APC was able to win the state narrowly in a presidential election. Except they go that route again, Nasarawa will remain extremely difficult to win for APC.

You are very right. Nasarawa is complicated and small, it is not really significant or strategic. Plateau is more important. If Tinubu can get bloc in Lafia and keffi or one, they can win. Jang moves like T. Y Danjuma, you dont know who they will eventually support.

Sheuns:
Atiku will get 25% in Lagos, Osun and Rivers to say the least.

Atiku won't get anything in Lagos or rivers

seunmsg:
Well, I don’t see Obi winning both Kano and Plateau. He will do better in Kano but not win. Kwakwanso of 2023 is not Kwakwanso of 2027. A lot had happened to his movement and a lot of sentiments are now in favour of Atiku as the only realistic northern candidate on the ballot.

Obi did well in plateau in 2023 because of the MM ticket. However, if you combine APC and PDP votes at the time, they got far more votes than Obi. The PDP and APC structure in the state has been merged. A lot of the Christians that voted for Obi in 2023 are no longer scared of Tinubu coming with an Islamization agenda. The National Chairman of APC is a Christian from the state. Between him and the governor, everything possible will be done to win the state. I’m calling Plateau for Tinubu with my full chest.

Atiku will never fly in Kano no matter the sentiments. You can't just expect pdp and aoc votes to coalesce, votes are not that easily transferrable. Again, Ex governor Jang who is popular among plateau voters is still in PDP. Nasarawa is far easier than plateau

fergie001:
Makinde is not because he doesn't want to repeat the mistake he made in 2023.
He has candidates on the down-ballot so it's APM or nothing in Oyo.

You are very correct, Makinde will be on the ballot just to protect his candidates in Oyo so he won't endorse anyone. Oriyomi Hazmat is really eating until his votes though

seunmsg:
Obi will not win Kano, Plateau and Benue. Nasarawa is 50/50 while I concede FCT to him.

Taraba is now an APC state so it will be a straight fight between Tinubu and Atiku. With the governor and TY Danjuma now backing APC and with most Northern Christians now supporting Mr. President, Tinubu should win Taraba with Atiku coming second. Whatever votes are left won’t be up to 25% for Obi.

Adamawa is Atiku’s home. He will win easily with Tinubu coming second. Tinubu will ride on the party structure and state governor to get 25%. Binani under NDC is not Binani under APC. She can’t deliver 25% to Peter Obi because she’s even backing Atiku for president. She’s in NDC for her own ambition and not Obi’s ambition. Tinubu saw her treacherous behavior in 2023 and that’s why she got no appointment despite her solid performance in the governorship election. Binani is an Atiku girl.


Obi will not get 5% in Zamfara so no need to waste time on that state. Kogi is also APC state. The only opposition in the state is Senator Natasha and she belongs to Wike’s rainbow coalition. Obi won’t get 15% in the state.

Peter Obi did well in Southern Kaduna in 2023. Sadly, he has lost that region to Tinubu. The people of southern Kaduna are Tinubu’s biggest supporters in the north right now. Tinubu will clear that region. Obi won’t get 10% in Kaduna in 2027.

Jigawa is not even in play so no point wasting time dreaming of Obi getting 25%. Kwakwanso himself couldn’t get 25% in the state when he contested for President, is it now Obi that will get 25% there? lol.

I think obi can narrowly win Kano and plateau. All kwankwaso needs is to work harder and with more force even though I know many of his fans won't vote obi. Obi will still likely win plateau narrowly. He won with a big gap in 2023 like fct. That can be easily eroded but again the Muslim-Muslim fears is down, insecurity in plateau curtailed and with Muftwang in APC, tinubu will get higher votes. I even learnt pdp in 2023 abandoned atiku And worked for obi And now are with Tinubu. He has a slim chance.

Obi won nasarawa because of Karu bloc votes and Wadada being neutral. He is popular there and will surely weigh in.
Binani just like Mama Taraba is pro Atiku. Obi will get up to 15% in kaduna

Moroccoguy:
Osun where, mention 1 local government in Osun that Atiku will win, 100k bet per local government he wins.

Atiku will get 25% in osun

Penguin2:
First, without boot on ground, Peter Obi scored 105k votes in Adamawa in 2023. Do I need to tell you that he scored more than that but the figures were changed against him? So, Obi is already popular, considerably, in Adamawa. All Binani and her team need to do is protect Obi’s votes and help add some few percentage, and you will see Obi getting his 25%.

Then Benue…. If you say Obi won’t win Benue, then who would? Tinubu that has overseen their slaughter since 2023 or Atiku?

Taraba is a Christian State and a traditional PDP voting state. Obi scored 146k votes in 2023. Atiku who won only scored 189k votes. What has happened that would change this? Also, the current NDC candidate gubernatorial candidate was NNPP gubernatorial candidate in 2023 and came second behind Kefas. Add his influence and that numbers goes even higher.

Then about Zamfara and Jigawa, I can’t say for certain but Kwankwasiya has considerable presence in Jigawa, and Marafa seems to be doing some work in Zamfara. You can’t write them off.

Obi actually had boots on ground. Babachir Lawal was stoutly supporting him. Almost all that 105,000 votes came from Christian dominated areas. Binani is a supremacist, she was in APC 2023 yet supported Atiku. Be rest assured that she won't work for obi. Besides, those Muslim votes will mostly go Atiku.
Obi at the height of his popularity couldn't win Benue sir. Governor ortom and over 50% of PDP in Benue supported him yet he still lost. Now, ortom And his followers and even suswan are supporting Tinubu so no chance for obi to win. By now, you should know that Benue votes aren't influenced by insecurity. Besides, insecurity and herdsmen activities have reduced compared to Buhari era. Again, the Muslim- Muslim fear is also gone...

Taraba is Christian dominated. Obi had a chance to win but still lost which means the christians of North East vote differently from those of the north central. Taraba is usually won by the ruling party just like Bayelsa and Akwa ibom. Sani Musa is a Fulani like Binani, he is only interested in his elections. In 2023, he contested under nnpp and couldn't get votes for his fellow Fulani kwankwaso. Obi is on his own. With Taraba governor and the political structure in APC, I think Tinubu will likely win. If obi had people like Danlami ikenya, Sabo kente, Emmanuel bwacha etc, it would have been better.

Kwankwaso as a contestant couldn't get 25% in jigawa, what would he do for Obi? Marafa is working for himself. Zamfara is very conservative, obi has no chance here.

ManirBK:
Yes, he can. But it won't be a landslide.

Kebbi is traditionally an APC state. The party has strong structures, a sitting governor in Nasir Idris, and a track record of delivering results. The people of Kebbi know the APC and have consistently voted for the party.

However, the margins will be slimmer this time. Why?

· There's growing frustration with the economy and insecurity
· The opposition is making inroads, especially with the ADC and PDP
· Some APC supporters are disillusioned and may stay home

But here's the good news:

Governor Nasir Idris has been working hard to deliver dividends of democracy – roads, healthcare, agriculture, and security. His performance will help shore up support for the APC ticket.

Also, the opposition is divided. The ADC is fighting itself in court. The PDP is still recovering from internal battles. A divided opposition only helps the ruling party.

True. Atiku won in 2023 even with Bagudu as sitting governor. I am guessing it was because of Sebator Aliero. Now that he's in APC, I guess it will be easier. I don't know Malami strength but I know he can't win governor Idris..I learnt a faction of PDP has endorsed APC

Thedon22:
Propaganda and fake news. No location, no context. No credible source. Characteristics of campaign season. Same thing happened in 2023 and Tinubu won. Fake news won't win you presidency.

Don't mind them. At least the areas rejecting obi and Atiku have locations and lgas

fergie001:
I always tell you something but you always don't listen.

Peter Obi can only win FCT and/or Nasarawa.
He can never win Kano.

He can't win 25% in any of the 5 States you mentioned.

You are brutally honest. Obi should win Kano but with the way kwankwasiyya are dumping him, he might not. It is very dicey. He won't win nasarawa again. Even plateau and fct he would win won't be easy

fergie001:
I can't even say the state he will win in the South but he can 25% in a couple.

Apart from osun if Aregbe is serious and maybe Oyo if Makinde collapses his structure for him, ADC is non existent

Penguin2:
Obi will win:
1) Kano
2) Plateau
3) Benue
4) Nasarawa
5) FCT.

Similarly, Obi will get 25% in:
1) Taraba
2) Adamawa (Binani factor)
3) Zamfara (Marafa factor)
4) Kogi
5) Kaduna (tentative)
6) Jigawa (Kwankwasiya presence but tentative)

Tell me which one is not realistic.

If obi will win Kano, it will be narrowly. He will win plateau with reduced margins. He won't win benue and nasarawa but will come close. Ofcourse he will win fct.

Obi getting 25% in Adamawa will be hard, Binani is more concerned about Guber and may still work for Atiku. Marafa can't give obi above 15% in Zamfara which is a stretch. Obi is not in contention in kogi and Jigawa. Apart from Kano, obi won't get more votes from any northern state

ManirBK:
ADC is busy fighting itself while APC is busy governing Kebbi.
Three aspirants crying foul. Allegations of forged documents. Court cases. This is not a party ready for 2027 – this is a party in crisis.
Governor Nasir Idris and the APC are focused on what matters: security, infrastructure, and the welfare of Kebbi people. We don't have time for internal squabbles because we are too busy delivering results.

The ADC can keep fighting over their stolen mandates. The people of Kebbi will keep supporting the party that is actually working for them – the APC.

I ask again. Can Tinubu win Kebbi