₦airaland Forum

OfficialAPCNig:
Only Tinubu supporters believe Tinubu can activate Jonathan to run for presidency and weaken opposition votes.

Abeg, follow me and laugh. As if they were mates in politics and national acceptance. Can you activate someone more popular than you to run against you?

Jonathan is even a bigger threat to Tinubu than Obi. He will clear out SS, MB, and the bulk of northern votes. So, where will Tinubu get his votes from? Nobody in his/her right sense will vote for Tinubu when they have the option to vote for Jonathan.

Those who claimed they activated Jonathan to split opposition votes are still the same people that went to court to challenge Jonathan's eligibility. Check those championing Jonathan's ineligibility suit and cry. They are also sympathetic to the current governor.

They know Jonathan on the ballot is the end for them.

They come online crying Tinubu is activating jonathan to run against Obi while behind the scene, they are pushing for court to disqualify him.

I ask again, If Jonathan runs, where will Tinubu get his votes from?

I am sure it's not:

SE

SS

Middlebelt

Tinubu will win SW, share SS with Obi and Gej. Gej and obi will share SE. Tinubu will share NC with obi/ Gej, share NW with Atiku and share NE with atiku

Eriokanmi:
Looool. Go and retire him. Tinubu couldn't overpower him with his heavy bribery in oyo during his first term with a heavy failed kidnapping attempt on him, dey play.

2019 was the height of his popularity.he is trying to impose and unpopular candidate, so he is vulnerable. Tinubu will bury him. Efcc him finally El rufai him

Eriokanmi:
You ain't seen nothing yet. The spirit of the apc is one. Full of deceit. Once you get infected, you'd never be logical in your thinking again. You should have stayed in your career. Apc will use you, then dump you and render you worthless. See the way they're lashing out at Makinde now, the man who helped them secure oyo state even as an opposition governor. They're full of ingrates.

I don't see that happening again in 2027 cos Makinde too has an ambition and he has all it takes to achieve it. Even if it doesn't happen in 2027, he needs to start creating the awareness now. Tinubu is on his exit point, politically and age-wise so, Makinde would not dare to miss his chance of building his political career too.

Every APC's supporter, thinking Tinubu's strong hold is south west, take note.

Makinde will be retired next year and you will keep wailing childishly

Aiel123:
Me and you know that what's keeping Seyi candidate in guber discussion is Seyi himself
Alli,Folarin,Buhari,Adelabu,Oriyomi is more popular than this guy
Wait self, what's ur grouse with Seyi ?
Why do you want him to fail?

I don't really have an issue with Seyi, I just don't want him to bring an unpopular candidate. There are several top shots like Tegbe, Speaker Ogundoyin, Arapaja and you are bringing one riffraff. As how

fergie001:
Hope said he will respect zoning across board, starting with himself.
He has zoned the Governorship to Owerri.

That Reps ticket is for Orsu/Orlu/Oru East
Orsu has done 12 years
Orlu is on 4 years, the returning member has been asked to complete 4 years and step down.....
then it goes to Oru East (Hope Uzodinma's LGA)

Cubana Chief Priest is from Orsu..... He only wanted to bulldoze himself in.

Idu Igariwey has been disqualified

Pootle:
hearts was robbed, the penalty given to celtic in their last game prove they didnt wan heart to win it

Exactly. I am so pained. It is how nfa are supporting Rangers FC in npfl

Svoboda:
He has a solid chance going by the plurality of southern candidates. This is coupled with Tinubu likely to haemorrhage votes in the north. Those who won't vote Tinubu again in the north are more likely to vote Atiku.

I still keep telling you that Atiku can't win without spread. Tinubu already has north central. Even if they split votes in the south, atiku gap will be very low

Svoboda:
Hope you know Sokoto politics has a peculiar dynamic. The opposition is always as strong as the ruling party, irrespective of the party in power. I think the power brokers play both sides.

From 2007-2015 sokoto has been one party until Tambuwal defected which evened out things. You may be right sha about gladiators playing both sides

Svoboda:
Which APC? You think the north is going to vote strictly on party lines?

I am talking about individuals. Wamakko was set to bury Tambuwal and his minions politically. Going for senate doesn't stop him from getting chief of staff later like Femi

Svoboda:
Tambuwal might have agreed to serve as Atikus chief of staff in the next government.

He tactically withdrew seeing that APC where set to retire him once and for all.

malakaimoscondo:
do u think tinubu will get the vote he had in the last general election?his popularity pummel...like i said..inec will help him out

Forget inec, based on free and fair polls, I think Tinubu is stronger than Atiku. The most popular politicians in sokoto are with Tinubu. What is going on for Atiku is ethnicity. Tinubu wasnt popular in 2023, Atiku was even more popular

Aiel123:
This man
I'm not saying his candidate would win na
All I said is that Makinde influence would rub on Adekanbi. Simple.

I understand but if it doesn't lead to victory, it hasn't rubbed

WhizdomXX:
I jumped into it live yesterday in Arise and I was impressed. I was listening to Taiwos session this morning. Please post it as well. Brilliant conversations from a seemingly old man but action speaks much louder than words.

I am surprised you are saying this.are you really objective

fergie001:
You forgot Justice Peter Lifu 😂

Justice Elias shouldn't have made it from CRS. He is from same LGA as Agim. With the retirement of justice Agube, CRS central and south is empty

malakaimoscondo:
tinubu can not defeat atiku in sokoto..unless his henchmen on ground,the aliyu wamako and Ahmed aliyu use state machinery to flip the vote in favor of tinubu...tinubu is not popular in North again...but the odds still favors him..cos those who count d votes decide the winner

But Tinubu almost defeated Atiku in sokoto 2023. With 1 LGA left, Tinubu was leading with 7000 until Tambuwal LGA gave Atiku a 10k victory

fergie001:
AD
He was in-charge of Tinubu's policy and transition committee in 1999. He left AD to contest against Osoba because Afenifere told him, Osoba must complete his term.

I see. I believe Abiodun started from AD too

malakaimoscondo:
yes we prefer tinubu to him..its either atiku or tinubu continue. I'm from sokoto state Nigeria..no body knows obi here

On an objective scale, measure the percentage in sokoto. For me, I think it will be Tinubu 55% Atiku 45%

fergie001:
People might not know they come a long way.

Gbenga Daniel provided his office for Tinubu to use as campaign Secretariat in 1998.

I thought Daniels started from pdp

fergie001:
I don't want to do d!ck measurement.
Makinde contesting for President reduces Obi & Atiku's votes increases Tinubu's own.

Let's move on.

It also reduces Tinubu's own sir but does no good to anyone eventually. Can Tinubu get 20% in abia

fergie001:
Not SW..... Ondo & Osun.
Ondo is gone, Mimiko has defected.

Lagos & Oyo, most populated and it's nothing, na wah!
Did Atiku and Obi record 25% last time out? NO.
Without Makinde's defection, will they have recorded 25%, NO.
This President is deeply unpopular and see there will be apathy. I believe he will still win because the opposition is unconvincing, but he should worry.

My dear, you know very well that I am very good in this so don't argue. In 2023, you foresaw a runoff and it never happened....

Atiku recorded 25% in 3 SW states, he even won one. Now that's gone. Mimiko is no longer relevant please, his defection means nothing. Tinubu's highest margins was from Ondo..
The opposition in SW share from the same vote pool. Obi and Atiku in 2023 got 1.7 mil combined, that's what PDP usually got in SW between 2015 and 2019. But now in 2023, it divided. Seyi will share from this same pool which means an average of 400k. Atiku used to do well in Lagos but in 2023 he lost badly because obi took his votes. On face value, it reduced Tinubu votes heavily damaged Atiku overall. Can you now see the ripple effects?
Makinde is just a distraction, he isn't going to win. Tinubu concern is Atiku and obi. What makinde gets is not important but what obi/ Atiku gets, Tinubu eyes will be on them. In presidential elections, number of states doesn't matter but margins and spread. Tinubu concern is to increase his margin against Atiku obi in SW and makinde will help him greatly...

Let's look at it from the religious angle. Tinubu greatest supporters in SW are from the Muslims. Now the christians that would not have voted him and voted Atiku or obi will go with Makinde... Oyo will now be like this Tinubu 400k makinde 350k Atiku 30k Obi 20k. Compare this to 2023 and see. Same Oyo that Atiku won in 2019.
If makinde was running with Atiku or supporting one of Atiku or obi like he did to Tinubu 2023, it will benefit the opposition more. Now, those votes will be wasted. No one gets it.

fergie001:
Who voted Atiku in the last election?
People who voted him, voted PDP because of Makinde's re-election.

Tinubu is worse off now!

Not so. Atiku had 180k in Oyo, Obi had 90k. Most of these will go to makinde now. Mind you, Atiku has always recorded good votes in the SW. Both obi and Atiku won't see 10%. Besides, tinubu lost osun and Lagos 2023 so losing two SW states will mean nothing as far as obi and atiku lose woefully

fergie001:
People are consoling themselves actually..... 😂.
How will you convince an Ibadan or Ogbomoso man to vote Atiku ahead of Tinubu? If you are talking about Osun, it could be let's say maybe. His wife is from Osun, he won Osun in 2023....not Oyo.

Tinubu is the most hit with Makinde's declaration.

Most of those that will vote Makinde would not have voted Tinubu. The votes Atiku and obi got in Oyo will now go to makinde. Tinubu and makinde will now be close will Atiku obi will struggle for bottom

AMINDA:
Sometimes I marvel at the mentality of some of you. So a governor putting his whole heart in means the electorates can no longer vote their choices? Does it mean Obi stands no chance in his Southeast if all the APC governors put their whole hearts in? Would you change your mind from voting Tinubu if the APC governor in your state defects today and puts his whole heart into his new party? Atiku won more APC states in 2023 than PDP states and it wasn't because the APC governors didn't put their whole hearts in.

All I see in your permutation is fear speaking. Makinde will only make Tinubu bleed votes in the Southwest. Tinubu is supposed to win the SW in a landslide to stand a chance. In 2023, Atiku got 6.9m votes mostly from the North and the North still gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. If Tinubu is no longer popular in the North, that doesn't mean his previous 5.6m voters are now deceased or will be boycotting the election. Far from it. Majority of them will be voting Atiku instead to make up for whatever numbers he may lose in the SW. Atiku’s only challenge in 2027 will be meeting the ⅔ spread. He's already set to get the highest number of votes cast.

Apart from Gombe and Adamawa, Atiku will struggle in the North

Aiel123:
At least it will increase his party visibility and acceptance,the ripples of which will spiral to the Guber election

A popular governor cannot install an unpopular candidate especially in the south west. The SW is the last place one can do imposition. Even Fayose could not. Seyi has to look for a better candidate

WhizdomXX:
Your Sokoto argument is justifiable. As for Taraba, Akwa Ibom, Dickson's Bayelsa and Rivers (God willing), time is a gentleman . Let's call it a night.

Dickson doesn't own bayelsa, he controls only sagbama and eketemor. Bayelsa central is under Diri, APC controls most parts of Bayelsa east

WhizdomXX:
I don't hate Tinubu. I'm too educated to hate him. He is an intelligent man, if he has done well I will support him. I don't just do projections on who wins. I do based on turnout and 25% margin.

You can't predict or base your projections on turnout but it will likely be low. If you know Tinubu is intelligent, you already know he has things mapped out. Tinubu may not win many of the places I am projecting but he will come close. Presidential elections is not just about winning a state but getting significant votes, bloc votes if possible and getting the spread

WhizdomXX:
Obi won Bayelsa in 2023, I am a Delta boy, I know Bayelsa well. Pdp rigged the rural riverine areas well. Now it will be between the governor vs the people and Dickson and Obi will win, unless Tinubu takes it seriously though. But Bayelsa is not really important in the scheme of things. Taraba will not go APC at the presidential, I can assure you. If Atiku loses sokoto that will be a disgrace to him but that's his business not mine. Tinubu may win Lagos marginally (I would still go Obi whom I never expected to win there nor in Delta in 2023 btw or tossup as the element of surprise is no longer there, unless a credible poll says otherwise) but not Rivers, no matter the shenanigans this time, unless you guys repeat the 2023 gestapo style.
Akwa Ibom and Cross river voted Obi in 2023. Akpabio and Udom did some games . I would stick to Obi carrying Cross rivers. Akwaibom can go to tossup.

Obi never won bayelsa. Stop using rigging as an excuse, if you win you win, if you lose you lose irrespective of what ever happened. Don't talk like a non Nigerian. Who told you the people of bayelsa are obidients? In 2023, I predicted Bayelsa as the last state obi can win in SS and I still call it.
Obi will still lose Akwa Cross especially akwa ibom, they always follow incumbency whether Akpabio did something or not. Two months to the election, I gave delta to obi. Obi will still win delta but Tinubu will get more votes....
Me and you know Wike so let's not argue about that, he will still deliver Rivers. Atiku isn't from sokoto, losing there means nothing. He was already losing there until Tambuwal rigged his LGA. Atiku won Taraba narrowly the last time. Now that the governor has defected, how will he manage that?

WhizdomXX:
He may get something in Bauchi and Osun. So include him. Just like kwankwaso was included in 2023 projections. As for Sandy I know but you can't underestimate older voters who all they know is pdp. Especially if he campaigns in his home State.

Oga, sandy is Wike boy. The plan is to adopt tinubu eventually, your hatred for Tinubu shouldn't blind you from objectivity.
Makinde won't get anything in Osun as far as Adeleke is governor. When you do your projections, you can include them

WhizdomXX:
Haba now. This is the shame I'm talking about. The shame of openly lying and defending it. What were mc oluomo and his touts doing? How do you feel in Church after this work?

Tinubu will win Lagos.

WhizdomXX:
SBM intelligent well done oo. You did not put turnout too? Kindly update your poll to include Makinde of APM and Sandy Onor of PDP

Makinde won't sell outside Oyo. Sandy is a tinubu project

WhizdomXX:
Dey play. Even with the voter suppression you guys did in Obi's strongholds?? is there no shame in being a supporter of the ruling party?

Which voter suppression? Any clear cut evidence

WhizdomXX:
Remove the first 4 and the last one from Tinubu's column to Obi. Put Somoto in Atiku's and Bauchi in unpredictable

Tinubu best obi in akwa ibom without a governor,he will still beat him. Her sister state cross river will follow suit. Wike will deliver rivers again, obi won Lagos by just 9k, this won't happen again. Atiku won sokoto by 3k when Tambuwal was governor. How will he replicate? Taraba always votes where their governor is.. obi can't win Bayelsa