₦airaland Forum

AMINDA:
Going by your logic, Obi will lose Anambra in the presidential elections and Atiku will lose Adamawa. I don't want to waste spittle on this please.

Yes. Tinubu will obviously win more states and margins. Keep your spittle and rest, you have no points

AMINDA:
Which is why I keep telling you that Tinubu is still standing on slippery ground. He had one of the least margin of victory ever in 2023 and 70% of his votes came from the North where he is now very unpopular. His purported in-roads into the South yet to be tested and is still hinged on betting on governors and rigging, not popularity amongst the electorates. If the people in the South apply the Osun template, he will be toast.

Lol Atiku at least has no grounds. Even Adamawa is slippery. Tinubu already has north central already. He just needs 30% in core north. If they people still apply osun template, it means ADC and NDC will come below APC. Don't forget the lost osun 2022. His inroads in the south has been tested. They have been elections in areas where APC never won and they won. Atiku on the other hand is fast losing grounds

AMINDA:
This is Tinubu's backyard we are talking about here. His own state of origin. Have some shame, please. Atiku won Osun, and Tinubu was on the ballot. Stop acting like Tinubu is popular in the state. He is currently still withholding local government funds, despite Adeleke's endorsement upon Wike's request.

But Obi lost twice in anambra in his backyard in bye elections and normal elections, why aren't you analysing it? There was even an election in jada Atiku's LGA and he lost shamefully

AMINDA:
Who delivered Obi? Who delivered Adeleke? Wjo delivered Buhati in the past? This will be the very first election the North will be going into after Buhari’s demise, and this is partly why Tinubu locked up Elrufai (there's more on this). What exactly do you all mean by "deliver?" Is that another name for rigging? Who did Umahi and Hope deliver in their states? Can you deliver anyone against momentum from the electorates? The candidate with the most momentum leading into 2027 will win the elections.

There is a reason obi and Atiku lost and it hasn't changed. Tinubu had the most momentum. Atiku has lost almost all ground in the south, he is out

AMINDA:
There was no by-elections in Kaduna. Elrufai was the first and only governor to have conducted local government elections using electronic voting and he lost some local governments in Southern Kaduna. Bar Elrufai, is there any governor that has lost a single seat in a local government elections organised in his state? Uba Sani has undoubtedly made in-roads into Southern candidate as a result of hos betrayal of Elrufai but he has also naturally lost a lot of base in the Northern parts. Southern Kaduna will vote him because he reverted to a Christian Vive but they will not unanimously vote Tinubu’s muslim-muslim ticket when Obi will be on the ballot.

Uba Sani is not the candidate Tinubu should be putting his hopes on.

Please, I beg you in the name of Allaah, try to watch this video till the end.

This is a fact about Mallam Nasir Elrufai, your governor.
People are accusing Elrufai simply because they're benefiting from this betrayal governor.

You dey make yourself foolish🤣 pic.twitter.com/kbPDGGKNpg

— Zubair Tunga (@Zubair_Tunga) September 6, 2026

Again you have shown that you don't know politics. There was bye elections in Giwa, birnin gwari , kaura and jaba which APC lost under El rufai. The first LGA elections El rufai conducted manually, APC lost in sk. But under Uba Sani APC hasn't lost anything sir. SK is done.. sk christians voted against Tinubu because of fear of islamization and marginalization which has been allayed so they will troop out for Tinubu. Same for other northern christians. Atiku has lost ground in kaduna

AMINDA:
When Umahi, Sanwo-olu, Hope Uzodinma and other Southern APC governors failed to deliver their states, was it because they moved mad? The way I see it, you all will tag a lot of governors betrayers after the elections but it will be mostly because you have expected them to sell alcohol in the middle of Mecca. Tinubu is not Jonathan but his whole fate lies on the endorsement by governors. He even had to beg Adeleke through Wike for an endorsement after being defeated in Osun, only to claim neutral. Jonathan could at least boast about having genuine support among the electorates in SS, SE and NC. Can Tinubu brag the same way? Jonathan also won Bayelsa. The North made Tinubu president.

Who is going to deliver Atiku? He's a political orphan

AMINDA:
You are not informed. Wike is fielding very strong candidates in Imo, Ebonyi, Kwara and others. A lot of the governors decamped not due to Tinubu's popularity but because of the then clampdown on opposition parties and the uncertainty in the political atmosphere, coupled with the monetary inducement. Most of them would never have decamped if the PDP remained intact. After what happened in Osun, the governors have also now discovered that Tinubu needs them more than they need him and will hardly be able to influence the outcome of their own election in their states for them. Atiku will win in the North while Obi will win the South if he rallies his base appropriately and resist rigging. Tinubu is very unpopular and there is only so much a governor can do. Decamping back from the APC will not be hard for any governor if Tinubu is defeated. It will be the easiest decision in the world for them.

These are mere conjectures and speculations. Imo and Ebonyi are no go areas for Tinubu. By the way, which strong candidate did wike field in Imo? The PDP candidates in kwara is a Saraki boy, this has nothing to do with Wike. Most of the governors prefer Tinubu to Atiku sir, it is as clear as daylight. Atiku has promised to bring back subsidy which won't go well with any governor. No governor will work for Atiku, all will be determined to work for Tinubu. That Atiku has no governor shows how hopeless he is. Tinubu can afford to lose both north and south and still win. Atiku has no pathway

By the way, APC lost osun in 2022 and the governors still worked for him. You clearly lack points. The few bigwigs in ADC are even decamping

AMINDA:
I really really hate to talk about by-elections. Obi lost his ward in Anambra. Does this mean the same will be the case in the presidential elections? Please move on with these by-elections postulations. We all know how it went down in most cases. Elections at that level come with a lot of local context that will not apply to the presidential elections.

We will talk about it sir. The SE is different from the north. In the north if they hate a party, they will never vote that party. Why didn't El rufai win any bye elections in SK? It will apply whether you like it or not. Same you was boasting about osun elections but kept quiet about Ekiti. Atiku has no pathway

Penguin2:
Lol! You truly said Nigerians don’t see Peter Obi as a better option to Tinubu?

One of the things you Tinubu supporters do a lot is lying to yourself.

Like you denied Obi’s influence in 2023 and insisted his supporters were 4 people tweeting in a room until you were rudely shocked on Election Day.

But let me remind you this, Tinubu did not win the 2023 election. The IREV was shut down and numbers were conjured to declare him.

Tinubu did not score up to 500k votes in Lagos. Not even up to 200k.

Tinubu didn’t score the figure allocated to him in Plateau.

Tinubu didn’t win Rivers.

The figures allocated to him in Benue were fictitious.

I can go on and on.

Unfortunately he will not enjoy such luxury in 2027. Add the general anger of the people against him and you will realize that Tinubu is cooked.

The problem with you obidients is that you spread falsehood and lie to yourself and throw up deluded imaginations. You are now faced with superior logic and in the absence of any tangible response, you resort to throwing emotional rhetorics. Can you prove that obi was rigged out in Lagos? You conceded that obi lost woefully in the core north, so how did obi win? If Irev was rigged, what about the manual copies of results in the custody of Lp agents. At least they are clear proofs that you where rigged out in rivers and benue which made no difference anyway. Why can't you prove rigging in other states? Until you accept the truth and make necessary changes, obi cannot make headway...
Your own methodology contradicts your claim. You claimed obi votes where reduced in the north because he had no strong bigwigs and you now allocate bigger votes in zamfara, Taraba and Adamawa because of Marafa, Binani and yahaya. How will he win Benue when he has lost a powerful force like Ortom? Better remove benue from your imagination.

AMINDA:
I just told you Southern Kaduna trooped out enmass for Obi and Obi only got 250k votes in the whole of Kaduna. Are you insinuating that some of them voted Tinubu's muslim-muslim ticket in 2023 or that some voted Atiku? The Northern Kaduna splitted their votes three ways with Atiku getting 550k, Tinubu getting 400k and Kwankwaso getting 150k. Even if we are to assume that the whole of Southern Kaduna will now abandon Obi and vote for Tinubu's muslim-muslim ticket, what will it amount to? It is mischievous to say Tinubu will do better or even better his numbers in Northern Kaduna. It makes me doubt the sincerity of your postulations. The few Southern Kaduna people that APC has flipped is solely for the gubernatorial election, the majority will still not vote Tinubu in the presidential elections. This is part of why Christopher Musa was sent to make his controversial statement on TV. APC are trying to salvage something from Southern Kaduna by riling up the people using the age-long religion card. The demerits of that is that it's a double-edged sword as they reduce their support in the other parts of Kaduna who are predominantly muslims.

APC has never won southern kaduna in any elections but they recently won chikun where APC is most hated. Majority of the southern kaduna politicians including their sociopolitical group sokapu have joined and aligned with APC. SK don't divide votes, they vote one way be it Guber or presidential. They vote against anything APC and are clearly now in APC. If you are a sincere politician, you won't argue this. Let us rather talk about northern kaduna.
Most of the northern kaduna politicians have joined APC. Even makarfi and Namadi sambo have aligned with APC. Most of those that won under pdp are now in APC. The most popular politician in kaduna north is Suleiman Hunkuyi and he's in APC. There is absolutely no way Tinubu won't get more votes in 2027

[quote author=AMINDA post=140554880]This is false. Dauda Lawal is more aligned with Atiku than he is with Tinubu. He has always said it openly that governors are being coerced and induced to join the APC. Below was his interview long before he finally decamped. None of those decamped governors would have done so if PDP had remained intact. Most did so at the time when virtually all political parties were destroyed and the ADC and NDC were being hounded by the courts. Tinubu promised them that they will have no opposition but he failed to pull it off after they decamped. Even Wike is now having problems with APC governors because he's now fielding strong candidates against them despite the assurances of Tinubu. This will further affect Tinubu. Yari did not support Dauda Lawal. He is from the Aliyu Gusau PDP camp who's son refused to decamp to APC with Matawalle as a deputy governor and is now in the ADC. The local dynamics in gubernatorial elections will be highly different from the presidential elections. A lot of Northern governors will have to throw Tinubu under the bus to save themselves.

"I know of States that have received over 500 billion Naira from the Federal Government as palliative, but I have never received anything.

I think the reason I don't get it is because I'm not in APC.

-Dauda Lawal, Zamfara State Governor pic.twitter.com/QvfR8olibA

— Arewa Source (@Arewa_Source) February 17, 2026

never said Dare is a tinubu boy, I said he is a Yari boy. He is closer to Atiku than Tinubu actually and APC know but he is a Yari product. Yari brought him from first bank to Zamfara government. Yari will always prefer Dare to matawalle sir, you don't need a seer to know this. Dare was in APC before joining the Gusau camp of PDP.
Politics is all about interests. The interests of governors is better protected in APC or with Tinubu than Atiku. No reasonable politician will throw tinubu away for obi or Atiku. Politicians go where they are better options.
Many governors in APC don't like wike, it didn't start today and it doesn't matter. Apart from rivers, there's no place wike has fielded candidates. What matters is that Tinubu will win and there's nothing Atiku can do about that. Atiku is weaker than 2023 and will grow weaker

Penguin2:
I always ask you guys something.

So you think the cry of hunger everywhere in this country has not altered the sentiments of voters? That’s why you keep projecting that Tinubu will win all the places he won in 2023 abi?

But realistically, of the list, Tinubu can only win:
1) Kwara (Yoruba factor)
2) Kogi (voters easily swayed by Governor)
3) Borno ( Shettima factor)

Only those 3 states are sure for Tinubu for now.

Atiku could end up winning:
1) Katsina
2) Sokoto
3) Yobe
4) Niger
5) Zamfara
6) Taraba (tentative)

While Obi will take:
1) Benue
2) Taraba (tentative)

Tbh, I feel it has changed the voting pattern but not significantly going by all evidence. We have had several elections and APC has dominated. that cry of hunger has been there since APC came and it hasn't altered the voting pattern.

If you are giving Borno to Tinubu, then you will concede zamfara to him too as he found it harder winning Borno. Tinubu can afford to win those three states alone and still end up winning after all Tinubu won only three states in the core north and still won. His pathway is far easier than the rest.. obi can't win Taraba, it is easier for obi to win Kano than Taraba. North eastern christians don't fancy obi

AMINDA:
Southern Kaduna voted overwhelmingly for Peter Obi but Obi only got 250k votes in Kaduna. Even if we are to concede that they will ALL now vote for Tinubu's muslim-muslim ticket, is that what will give Tinubu 50-50? The best Tinubu can hope for is to split Southern Kaduna votes with Obi while the larger Northern Kaduna votes Atiku. Some people just sit in their enclaves and postulate because they equate noise with substance.

Tinubu got 30% from kaduna the last time despite losing sk. This time he will win sk and get more votes in the north. Atiku will only win kaduna narrowly

yomi531:
Just dey play. Who wan dash u Plateau and Southern Kaduna

Southern kaduna is already with Tinubu

[quote author=AMINDA post=140554267]Lol. Yari? Unexplained wealth is not tantamount to influence. Yari was the campaign DG to Matawalle when the present governor came from nowhere as a greenhorn and defeated them both. The people of Zamfara voted Tinubu in 2023 inspite of the likes of Yari and Matawalle, not because of them. Tinubu was very popular in the North in 2023 but not anymore.

P.S: This is how Yari is campaigning for Tinubu in Zamfara. There's a reason why children are leading the campaigns. The adults in the states wouldn't touch those flags and for good reasons. The governor will win his re-election convincingly because he did well but certainly not Tinubu. APC mistakes the crowd that graces some of these campaigns mostly because of their governors to be support for Tinubu. But most of the governors including the one in Zamfara were practically coerced to join the APC and are now in a harder position.

This is Zamfara for Asiwaju!

I need to show this to one of my two special people @Ade_Nurayn and @Magixlamy_ pic.twitter.com/8p2pTcwiKS

— 36kinniun media👑 🦁 🕊 (@fattylincorn_01) September 5, 2026

any governor tell you they where coerced to join APC? You clearly do not know politics or zamfara politics, I am the one to educate. The present governor Lawal is one of the boys of Yari. He was a commissioner under Yari and one of the contestants in that cancelled primaries of 2019. Matawalle was never part of the Yari circle. Yari camp even opposed his defection to APC. Yari clearly worked for Tinubu and himself and abandoned Matawalle thereafter. Dare is no greenhorn.

Yari controls and dominates Zamfara alongside his master Ahmed Sani Yerima. Even pdp where amazed at how Yari delivered to APC in 2019 from top to bottom. Even if Tinubu is no more popular in the core more, the APC structure alongside strong men like Yari will give him 30% in each state

slivertongue:
2027 isn't 2015. Suddenly you can't name the persons who will campaign for the moronic governance style of the incumbent. It's everyone to his tent.

Does your oga have Atiku have someone like Yari campaigning for him?

slivertongue:
2023 is in the past. Tinubu is already spoken of in past tense in the North.

You said so from 2015 so please rest. Sit this one out

MEGAWATCH:
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣


You think the South East is the only people against Tinubu?

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

I'm living in the North and I wish you have stayed in the core North during election before, maybe you will understand politics of the North better.

Tell me what you think the South East will lose with Tinubu winning the election next year? Nothing! Absolutely and they will continue living their normal struggling lives.

But can you imagine what the northern politicians will lose supporting Tinubu for another four years? Relevance!

They are already preaching it here that a vote for Tinubu is the end of the power of the North in politics and it's 100 percent correct.

Like I used to tell people, today's election are not won in Abuja but in the States and by the people.....


You see this coming election, get ready for the biggest shocker of your life my dear but people go eat politicians money tire.


🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

You are one of the biggest opponents of Tinubu here. In 2023, we heard how the core north will finish tinubu but here we are and I believe you will still come again 2031. The first methodology you used, I have scuttled it and it actually shows tinubu will win. Now you have brought another one involving the core north which also supports Tinubu victory...

Most of the northern politicians are aligned to Tinubu. Infact, many where out of relevance under buhari and Tinubu brought them back to political reckoning. They will gain nothing under Atiku, the kind of politics Atiku plays won't favour them. Only Tinubu knows how to take care of politicians sir. Besides, majority of the northern politicians want to be president. Their relevance is tied to Tinubu, Atiku being president will kill that dream. All they need to do is to wait till 2031 and retire useless Atiku. Besides Atiku is too liberal and elitist, he won't further northern interests.

Yes elections are never won in Abuja but states and if you objectively look at the states, tinubu has far more strength, resources, reach than obi and Atiku in the 36 states. Keep your hatred aside and accept tinubu victory.. there is what we call reluctant voters. You will be shocked that many angry with Tinubu will vote him

MEGAWATCH:
I like watching and observing the behavior of the voting public like I did in the previous two elections in Ekiti and Osun.


I had this argument with Jonathan supporters years ago on how Nigerians were angry with the administration but they argue like most Tinubu supporters are doing today and even calling him the god of politics.... 🤣🤣🤣


But after this coming election, most of them will be so surprised that even the god of politics can bleed from the nose.


The power has gone to the people and they are going to use it brutally.



😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

You overrated the people actually. Nigerian voters are actually predictable. People vote differently. How SW voters reason is different from how SE or SS or core north or middle belt voters react. Most of those venting angst are those that have always opposed tinubu or APC. If you are actually using osun and Ekiti as a case study, then it is obvious that APC will still win. Since 2018, 2022 osun polls have been tight so it is nothing new sir. Don't forget obi party also lost anambra Guber. They have been several other polls including Edo Guber and many bye polls and APC dominated. ADC or NDC haven't won any which means voters don't rate them

Gej lost because he had one major opponent which the opposition could unite behind. The north and Sw where clearly against him. But now apart from the SE, you cannot confidently say which region is against Tinubu. Would they queue behind obi or Atiku? An incumbent hardly loses a race where there are three or more opponents..
Nigerians are angry but they know obi and Atiku are not good options. They won't want to make the mistake of 2015. A greater majority will reluctantly prefer the incumbent

MEGAWATCH:
He will most likely not go back to the office as Shagari didn't.


History has a way of repeating itself you know?


😂

Shagari won reelection sir and served almost a year of his second term before removal. Obi and atiku cannot defeat him

MEGAWATCH:
Thanks and he also ended as 4 years leader.


😎😎

He won reelection actually but was removed via a coup. Therefore Tinubu will be reelected

hegelian:
we hear you..enjoy your delusion and if its rigging u bank on, we go soon see how it all gonna be

Which one is delusion? That Yari is DG and is powerful in zamfara

MEGAWATCH:
Tinubu won the election with about 2million votes (the lowest in Nigerias history) in 2023 when the suffering was not much like we have now and today you are claiming he will win massively because we are your people who enjoys suffering like milk abi?


You have started this emotional analysis again, I still remember all you were yappping here few weeks ago in the case of Osun.


Anyway, continue making yourselves happy.


🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Shagari won with the lowest margin in 1979, less than a million

hegelian:
2023 is different from 2026...abi people are animals that you just command to vote and they follow...the hardship and killing is felt more in NW and zamfara as a flashing point...all our eyes go soon clear ok

The hardship was there since 2019 yet it didn't change anything. Atiku is not a good option and he isn't close to the masses. The northern political bigwigs control large numbers of voters

WorkTheTalk:
Winning in the north will be a tough call for Tinubu.

He doesn't need to win

slivertongue:
Yaro baka da labari? The is done doing Tinubu

They will manage him till 2023

seunmsg:
I have my doubts about Sokoto and Katsina. Both states were almost 50-50 in 2023 and I still think it will be very close again in 2027. Yes, the PDP structure that Atiku relied on in 2023 is now dead but the ADC has build a very strong structure in the North east and west. For now, I can't call the two states for APC as far as the presidential election is concerned. The other states, I agree with you. Also, I think APC will win Plateau state. Kaduna is also 50-50 as it seems the entire southern kaduna will swing towards Tinubu this time around.

For sokoto, Tambuwal was governor and on the ballot. Tinubu was leading until last minute results from Tambuwal LGA gave Atiku a 3k margin victory. Not everyone in that Tambuwal faction joined ADC. I agree their Guber candidate Manir Dan Iya is formidable.
For Katsina, the ADC or then pdp is heavily depleted and divided. Majigiri, shema, Inuwa mustapha, Lawal Daura, Dahiru mangal etc have all left leaving only Sen Abba kaita. APC can easily win here. I think these two states are easier than pleateu

LegendHero:
Lol he won Zamfara in 2023. Is it now that Yari is the DG and the sitting Governor is in APC that he will lose the state?

Even if he won’t win those other states, he will get over 40% of the votes.

Tinubu getting 40% in any state in the core North is as good as winning. Atiku won’t be able to make up the numbers anywhere in the NC or the three South.

Tinubu electoral path is easier. All he needs to do is to maintain his 2023 maths and he's home and dry. He can afford to score 30% in the core north and still win

Validated:
Op, Buhari's influence in APC is now ZERO. Tinubu will be roundly defeated in the core North, except Bornu.

Beaten by Obi or Atiku

hegelian:
He can never win zamfara, taraba, yobe, lasting and sokoto.. Even if he right which is not possible this time around..

He will, he got his biggest victory in the core north from zamfara. Yari the godfather of zamfara is now campaign DG. Taraba usually goes to the sitting governor's party. He lost sokoto narrowly so he should win this time.

VoiceHenshaw27:
I’m not disputing that fact, bro. But let’s not pretend we didn’t see what happened yesterday at the Port Harcourt Township Central Mosque.
The crowd came from different regions, and honestly, I couldn’t even tell who was Northerner or Southerner. At that point, it was bigger than religion. It was about the people and the frustration building across the country.
Rabiu Kwankwaso came to that same Port Harcourt Township during the 2019 electioneering campaign, and the crowd was nowhere near what we witnessed yesterday.
So what changed?
The people changed. The hardship changed. The political consciousness changed.
APC and Tinubu may continue to tell Nigerians that things are getting better, but crowds like this are a reminder that Nigerians are watching, feeling the impact of government policies, and making up their minds.
This is no longer just about North or South, Muslim or Christian. It is increasingly about Nigerians who are tired of being taken for granted.
2027 is coming. The ballot box will be the real crowd.
The people are ready. Let those in power not mistake silence for satisfaction.

Those are obi fans and obi is popular in rivers. In the end, wike will deliver Rivers

Kwara
Kogi
Niger
Benue
Zamfara
Sokoto
Katsina
Borno
Yobe
Taraba

Fergie001
Seun
Seunmsg
Cajal
Saintkel