₦airaland Forum

Svoboda:
Fingers crossed.

Not yet. I am not done. No ticket can defeat Tinubu though the best combo will be Atiku/Obi...
In Yobe, all the gladiators are in APC. But there are suspecting Buni so Senator Geidam is there to neutralize him. The Machina/ Lawan feud is settled. In Borno, same thing. The Kanuris are totally with Tinubu unless shettima is dropped. In Bauchi, Dogara who supported Atiku is back with Tinubu. Bala has left atiku. Mohammed Sadiq supported Atiku while in APC so his move means nothing . In Gombe, Goje may join ADC but it is obvious he was against Tinubu. He is a long time atiku boy. The people of Gombe central including the Emirs of Yamaltu deba and Akko have called for the retirement Goje. The popular Isiaka Gwamna and Abubakar Barde are with Tinubu. Pantami who worked with the cabal has pledged loyalty to Tinubu. In Taraba, all the juggernauts are with Tinubu. Even T. Y Danjuma seems to move towards Tinubu which means Atiku has lost Taraba for the first time. We have said enough about Adamawa...
Tinubu is a politician's delight, an average politician will prefer to work with Tinubu than Atiku who plays mercantilist politics. He uses his followers during elections and abandons them. He believes everything is transactional, no loyalty. Tinubu on the other hand has cultivated long time loyalty. Even so many critics admit Tinubu assisted them in the past...
Most of the Apc chapters having issues are over local matters, they are united for Tinubu. Infact Tinubu is so good at fence mending that he gets different opponents even in opposition to work for him. Look at Suswam in pdp who worked for Atiku aligning with Tinubu, Muazu Aliyu also. Atiku is divisive, cannot resolve party issues. Tinubu isn't perfect but is far better than Atiku

Svoboda:
Fintiri was never atikus man. With or without him, Atiku will sweep what he wants. Sokoto apc is divided. They held a parallel congress. Senator Lamido is defecting. Badarus one foot is out of apc in jigawa. Tinubu didn't win KD, but Elrufai helped him over the line with almost 400k votes. What even makes you think all the northern apc govs will work for Tinubu? The only factor that worked against Atiku in 2023 was buharis last minute endorsement of Atiku. This time, there's no Buhari to help him. Even down south, delta apc is divided. I told you something before. Let's see how many northern candidates will campaign with Tinubus poster or wear his chain insignia cap for their campaign.

Lol, a last minute endorsement that was missed by millions of bubarists? If delta APC is divided, does ADC even exist in delta? Delta APC has been divided from 2019 between the Emerhor/ Keyamo/ Agege faction which forced ogboru to defect. Tinubu lost there so it doesn't matter but this time he will at least get 25%, Atiku nothing. Sokoto APC is not divided, it is completely in the hands of Wamakko/ Aliyu. Senator Lamido is nobody, he was made by Wamakko and will be buried. It is even ADC that is divided...
Badaru for now is in APC, if he goes, Lamido and saminu turaki are coming. Governor Umar Namadi is in total contro. Atiku lost here which is very basl. In 2023, how many northern candidates campaign with Tinubu pix? Did it make any difference?
Look at the recent ADC membership registration, the highest numbers are from Adamawa, kaduna, Bauchi and Gombe and these states gave Atiku his highest votes in 2023. No new changes for Atiku.his support base is stagnant.Membership in the south is abysmal..
Obidients have shown multiple times that 95% of them will only vote for Obi. If obi is not on the ticket as president, sorry for Atiku. Even if obi is on as running mate, at least 50% won't vote which means some states like Ebonyi, imo and Enugu may tilt to Tinubu and worse in the south south. By now you know south south is controlled by political gladiators and all are in APC and eyeing 2031 as running mates. No hope for ADC. Even in the north, many radical voters who would have voted Atiku would be disgusted by obi pairing. Kwankwaso statement in 2022 was very apt..

There has been several bye elections since 2023 and ADC couldn't even win one. Even in Adamawa, ADC lost to APC. When buhari was president, APC nevee won any staggered election in Adamawa or Taraba. You want to joke with Tinubu? Everyone will hustle for votes to impress him..
Fintiri being Atiku man or not means nothing as far as they where in same party and he helped Atiku one way or the other. El rufai was never Tinubu man and he didn't hide it but are you not the one preaching about his efforts? Most of those who helped buhari in 2015 including Tinubu never liked him, I am surprised you are raising this. Fintiri controls a large amount of indigenous Christian voters in Adamawa in case you don't know esp in madagali/ michika, toungo, guyuk, lamurde, Song ,hong axis which will hurt Atiku. Abdulazeez Nyarko who is popular in Adamawa central and Mayo belwa has joined APC...
In 2023, most northern governors where not seeking reelection and could afford to betray Tinubu but they didn't. Now that most are seeking reelection, they are stuck with Tinubu. In 2023, Atiku had up to 10 govs yet he failed. How much more now. We know people like Buni, Sule, Inuwa yahaya might have sabotaged Tinubu bought it doesn't matter. Sometimes I even feel El rufai worked against Tinubu last minute

Svoboda:
In 2023, apc had Ganduje and majority of the hoa members but still lost to Kwankwaso in both the presidential and governorship elections. Invariably, Abba Yusuf decamping with 50% of his govt makes no difference. Apc in Kano is divided. Doguwa and others are aggrieved. The old apc members in most states are angry and disenchanted. Atiku didn't win KD south in 2023, but he has Ashiru. But there's no bigger northern persuader, if I'm allowed to use that phrase, than el rufai. Tinubu didn't only lose him. He exposed his treachery to the north. No northern farmer would cast his vote for Tinubu. Right now, Tinubu has trust deficit. Not just that, his trust issues would be mounting now. Thank God the future is pregnant. But one thing I know is that a lot of states even in the south aren't certain for Tinubu. Forget about the noise. Can Tinubu get 25% in the se with obi on the ballot? That's a capital no for me.

Is ADC not divided? Are there not also having numerous court cases? This divide in APC has always been there even from after 2015 victory. So many of those disgruntled members will still prefer Tinubu who treats politicians better than Atiku who discards his allies. Imagine Fintiri and okowa dumping atiku, what is more humiliating? You can't use that to gauge sir. El rufai lost kaduna so where is the persuasion? Atiku didn't win Southern kaduna but he beat Tinubu there. If obi hadn't contest, he would have won. A lot in the north don't really trust or like Tinubu same as they don't like Atiku so it is even. In the absence of Buhari, kwankwaso is the king of the north. Tinubu was never going to win Kano with kwankwaso contesting but Atiku as a northerner should have gotten 25% but he failed woefully, the only state he failed in the entire core north. Why can't you see the brutal truth?

In sokoto, Abubakar Gada has dumped Atiku. Tambuwal used incumbency to narrowly deliver the state, that's now gone. APC is intact. In zamfara, Governor Lawal is gone alongside most of those who supported Atiku. In Katsina, Lado Dan marke, Dahiru mangal , Ibrahim shema have dumped Atiku. The emir of Daura publicly endorsed Tinubu, this is massive and unprecedented. In Jigawa, Lamido has abandoned Atiku. The emir of Hadejia endorsed Tinubu. I can go on and on. Atiku camp is bleeding more sir...

An average northern peasant or farmer would vote a simple minded, incorrupt, mass oriented, Islamic radicals candidate. Kwankwaso is the closest to that. Atiku doesn't represent that so nothing for Atiku sir. The northern voters have always been influenced by their clerics, emirs and politicians and most are with Tinubu. Atiku can only manage a narrow victory...
Except obi is pairing with Atiku which is unlikely , Tinubu will massacre Atiku everywhere down south and even north central. It will be like 2011 polls. You saw how the fct polls and other bye elections went. The nation still love APC sir

WhizdomXX:
What LGA?

Kudan

Svoboda:
Thank God you said PROBABLY about Kwankwasos intention. Nobody knows for now, but he's defied your logic by defecting to adc. According to the news, he gave conditions and they were accepted by adc. My argument is that Tinubu has lost grounds in the north. Kwankwaso was a factor in favour of Tinubu. Now, he's no longer so. You don't have to think too far to realize that those who wouldnt vote Tinubu would vote for an Atiku.

Ps. Most of apc Kano south senatorial zone are angry with the apc arrangement in Kano which is in favour of gov Abba Kabir Yusuf.

He hasn't defied anything. Kwankwaso did not support tinubu in 2023 nor buhari in 2019 so he is discounted. If you look closer, Atiku has lost more grounds in the north than in 2023 and 2019 when he was at his strongest. Kwankwaso probable intentions is to contest with obi or someone else but let's discount him. Gawuna left APC while APC gained Abba Gida and Senator sumaila and 50% of kwankwasiyya elected officials.
In kaduna, Atiku gained only El rufai but has lost southern kaduna that has always voted him, lost Makarfi, Senator Hunkuyi, Namadi Sambo, Danjuma laah and most of those who supported him. Kudan supported Atiku in 2023 and 2019 so no difference. In Adamawa, he has lost Governor Fintiri and most of the PDP supporters. Binani supported him in 2023 from APC so no gains. In Kebbi, Tinubu gained the mighty Adamu Aliero and his structures while Malami led the cabal to support Atiku 2023. Where are the gains? I can analyse all the northern states for you to see that Atiku has gone weaker if you want sir. No pathway for Atiku sir. Assuming he manages to win the north, he would be humiliated in every southern state while Tinubu will win many northern states. Even in death, buhari would still clear the north sir. No way for Atiku

WhizdomXX:
Funny enough Isa won the last election.

Someone that always loses his lga

Prince111111:
my brother..Adeleke is supporting Tinubu because he is from Osun state and people around Adeleke including Kings and Baales would not support Adeleke if he bad-mouths Tinubu. Hence his latest and secret support for Wike's faction of PDP.

Does Ambo has a chance in the guber

Prince111111:
yes he will because of tribalism

Or because Adeleke is supporting him?

ogascomax:
Omo this guy really get time o. You are really collecting change from APC to sit down and write all this things that are equal to zero.

Lol, you don't know politics, go and sit down. You and your dead ADC will keep losing to APC. Lol

Svoboda:
Is that the straw you guys are now clutching on? Votes aren't transferrable, but sentiments are. You expect the Muslim north to largely vote a southerner again against their brother, when they have nothing to show for the 2023 deception. Time will tell. But one thing very clear is that Tinubus borrowed support in the north has been vastly eroded by his incompetence and ethnocentricity. There's no more Buhari to exhibit his inked ballot paper nor elrufai to kneel and beg the undecided.

There is nothing like straw here sir. The Muslim north is clearly divided, Atiku has always been overrated and it will finally show again but I don't know why you can't see it. Only buhari can sweep the north, no other sir. It is a free for all and Atiku will be overran... Pause and think, why will kwankwaso who wants to be president support Atiku to do 8 years and bury his chances? Kwankwaso is probably preparing to be running mate to obi or Amechi

SonOfWords:
You no sabi politics aje!

You seriously think Gawuna's alignment with Kwankwaso in ADC is so he can unseat Abba to be the next governor? Lol.

The North is realigning to remove Tinubu and every significant voices in the three Ks are being gathered. Kwankwaso as far as we are all concerned, owns roughly seventy percent of the voting crowd in Kano, and Gawuna equally holds a form of cult followership.

Once yekini amoda is removed, the rug will simply be pulled from under Abba's feet and he'll plop on the dirt like some toddler learning to take steps. Kwankwaso already described Abba's defection as a deep betrayal, and that man is known to hold deep grudges.

With Kwankwaso and Gawuna in one camp, they'll control the voice of Kano for the presidential election and no amount of money or violence is going to deter Kwankwasiyas from following their overlords.

Should ADC win the presidential election, Gawuna will even most certainly play a more significant role in the next administration than being a mere governor. He'll have "choices". And Abba's seat will be one of them. . Checkmate!

Lol, ADC does not have what it takes to gather majority of the north sir. Majority of kwankwaso supporters are already in APC. We saw more of this in 2023. The Ganduje faction is more stronger than kwankwaso faction

Prince111111:
you people should stop over estimating this man please

I believe Tinubu will win osun this time

Svoboda:
Ganduje did both nomination and appointment? So, how's that Kwankwasos problem? Was it also Ganduje that prevailed on the president to snub Gawuna and poach the lightweight gov from nnpp?

In 2023, Kwankwaso spoilt Atikus party in Kano by working for Tinubu. In 2027, Kwankwaso would rectify that damage for Atiku.

Lol, you are miscalculating as usual. Kwankwasiyya are like obidients, they are not transferrable. They vote only their master. They will never vote Atiku or obi. They come out for kwankwaso or for Guber polls. Even in 2019, they failed Atiku. Atiku lost woefully in Kano 2023, even tinubu bested him. This clearly shows they don't rate Atiku sir. There's nothing kwankwaso can do about this. Best case is a narrow victory like in most northern states

Saladdin:
I dey tell you brother. Almost all the former PDP aspirants in Kaduna that were vying for various posts are now in ADC. The anti party and sabotage of APC go loud!

Mallam made Uba a Governor and Tinubu a president, and he will unmake them, no doubt.

Nigerians are dying like fowls, yet the C-in-C is in all intent and purpose incompetent. Since he can't tackle the insecurity, let him go!

Lol, most of Isa Ashiru votes where from southern kaduna which is now gone to U a Sani. El rufai will be buried

Sugarboyy:
And all these while I thought you know Edo State politics and you are on ground. You openly saying ADC will win Edo state has shown that you are not on ground in Edo state.
Presently ADC doesn't exist in Edo Central (Esan) because of Okpebholo effect and in the whole of Edo North, APC won in 2023 despite the Obi tsunami. In 2027, APC will win the Whole of Edo North and Edo Central and wins 60% in Edo South.

No, understand me. I thought obi will still win based on his 2023 figures

ogascomax:
Tell me the key players in North that can sway voters. Which one. Tinubu has even failed the North and Nigeria entirely.

In sokoto, Wamakko and the governor are with Tinubu. In Kebbi, Aliero and Bagudu are with Tinubu. In zamfara, Yari and Yerima are pro Tinubu. In Katsina, the Yaradua family, Dahiru mangal, Masari are with Tinubu. For Jigawa, Badaru and Farouk Adamu and the governor are with Tinubu. Lamido is neutral for now. In Yobe, Governor Buni, Ahmed Lawan, Ibrahim Geidam, Hon Machina, Ibrahim Bomai are with Tinubu. All the who is who in Borno are pro Tinubu.
In Kogi, Bello, governor Ododo, senator Echocho, the Audu family, smart Adeyemi are all with Tinubu. For Niger, senator Bello, Governor Bago, David Umaru, muazu Babangida, Jerry Gana are with Tinubu. For kwara, Governor Abdulrazak, Oloriegbe, Senator mustapha, Lai Mohammed, Gbemi saraki are pro Tinubu. Saraki is neutral. In nasarawa, Governor Sule, Senator Makura, Abdullahi Adamu, senator Wadada, Jonathan Gaza, Ombugadu are pro Tinubu. At benue, virtually everyone apart from David Mark is pro Tinubu. Every stakeholder in plateau is pro Tinubu. In Taraba, virtually every stakeholder is pro Tinubu. In Bauchi, Apart from senator Ningi, the rest are pro Tinubu or neutral. In Gombe apart from Senator Dankwambo, the rest are pro Tinubu. Even in Adamawa, apart from senator Elisha Abbo, The senator representing Adamawa south and ex governor Bindowo and senator Binani. Most state holders support Tinubu.
Apart from El rufai who has been humiliated in kaduna, Kwankwaso in Kano, which major stakeholders in the north are with atiku

aswani:
I know it's your opinion but ADC will be beaten black and blue in Edo state. They will be wasting valuable resources campaigning in Edo state with that ticket.

With what happened during the Edo central senate and ovia reps bye elections, I might agree

Saladdin:
Abba might win his sit, and most elective officials might also win their sit. But at the presidential level, the President is NOT winning Kano. Not even the 2023 figure will come up again.

It will be tighter this time

ogascomax:
Your eyes will clear after the election. Those who made that possible aren't supporting Tinubu again. You think 2023 will be like 2027. Which River State you are talking about. Is it the one I am right now abi the River State in Oshodi.

Majority of those who formed APC, helped Tinubu are still there. Wike will still deliver Rivers

onatisi:
dislodging tinubu from aso rock will take a huge effort from these politicians and nigerians come 2027 . the opposition really need to mobilze the people

It's too late

ogascomax:
I was beginning to think that 2027 election won't be much interested now I can see that the election will be a very tough election with a new realities. In Adamawa State I believe we shall see the first female governor ruling a State. Kano election will be very crazy. The North will be too hurt for Tinubu. It will be a door or die election for Tinubu. 2027 election is a war.

That woman won't win, Fintiri will present the next governor

unclejb2:
Obi/Kwankwaso ticket is 80% loading.

The biggest weights in northern politics are all in ADC.

Tinubu's nightmare

The biggest weights in the north are in APC

richmond500:
The circumstances that made Wike deliver Rivers state has been taken away from him.
The executive power.

Now SIM holds the red pen with a silent nod from presidency.

That executive power will still be given to Wike when time comes. Again, most of the men that helped Wike deliver are still with him

ddippset:
Nothing is ultimate.


Even all Tinubu's supporters will not vote him.
Even Obi's supporters will not all vote him.

You don't need to tell me, I know this more than you.


There are many other divisions but the major division is;

Supporters of the government versus Opposers of the government.


Supporters vs Opposition.

Tinubu is in government so it's going to be across those lines; not entirely but majorly.

1.

If you know more than me, you will know than Tinubu will be reelected barring any unforseen circumstances despite your hatred for APC

ddippset:
I love this your mathematics..

If Atiku doesn't contest, then add the votes of Peter Obi, Atiku and Kwonkwoso.

That's what Obi will get in 2027.

Who told you Atiku supporters will all vote obi? Even many kwankwaso supporters won't vote obi. It is just like saying all obi supporters will vote another candidate when this never happens. Voters are not transferable

Majdddd:
Adc have 2 state now katsina and kano congratulations to them

How did they get Katsina

Vinnie2000:
Some Governors will influence their State citizens to vote for Tinubu.

Esp performing Governors

This is what will happen in state such as Enugu and Delta.

Igbos have never been influenced by their governors electoral wise

richmond500:
I don't know for other but Wike can't deliver Rivers state.

I heard APC wants to give SIM some conditions, but SIM has said if he doesn't like those conditions, he will step aside and allow Wike have his way in Rivers.

Wike delivered rivers in 2023 so why can't he do it again?

Vinnie2000:
What makes you think Northerners can not vote enmasse for a Southern Presidential candidate?

In 1993 election, MKO Abiola got lots of votes from the North.

If the Presidential Election is a Two-Horse race, the North will pick Obi over Tinubu.

Lol, Abiola didn't win the north. Obi can never win the north, stop the fantasy. Even the north central with christians, he struggled to win

Vinnie2000:
My brother, APC will win in Enugu, Imo and Ebonyi.
These 3 states are now core APC states.

Abia will vote Massively for ADC based on Obi/Otti's relationship.

Anambra will massively vote ADC bcus despite his achievement here and there, Anambra do NOT like Soludo.

Soludo is too Authoritarian. He cannot convince them to vote Tinubu.

Oga, you are far from reality? Which relationship does Otti have with obi? Is it not crystal clear that Otti prefers Tinubu

CharleyBright:
What many of you don't understand Nigerian politics is it stands presently is that there is high tendency that States can support their party Governorship candidate but not willing to support their party presidential candidate.
This will play out a lot in the South East and South South.
Anyone that thinks Nigerians that are suffering on the street will go and queue and vote Tinubu are jokers.
They will vote their governors and not vote Tinubu

In SS, Tinubu will likely win or come very close

Vinnie2000:
Lol,
You are wrong.

With the way Peter Mbah of Enugu is going, he will convince the state citizens to vote Tinubu.

As for the North, remember that there is always Bandwagon effect.

If Kano is voting ADC, Kebbi, Jigawa, Gombe, etc will follow suite.

You are dead wrong. There's nothing convincing Enugu from voting from obi. Mbah can only convince them to vote for himself and secure some votes for Tinubu, that's all.
As for core north, They will never vote a non Muslim or go Gaga for a southerner
Kano has no connection with Jigawa, Gombe. Kano is only connected to Jigawa but not electorally. The bandwagon effect only stops with buhari or any radical candidate not Atiku tlkkess of Obi. In 2023, Nnpp only win Kano, tinubu win Jigawa, Atiku won Gombe and Kebbi. Obi cannot win any core northern state. Infact, he might lose Kano. Obi got ridiculous votes in sokoto, Kebbi and most of those states in 2023. It wouldn't change much