₦airaland Forum

Vinnie2000:
Based on the Assumption that we have Peter Obi/Kwankwanso ADC candidacy.

SOUTH EAST
Abia - Likely to be won by ADC (Otti na Obi man)
Anambra- Likely to be won by ADC
Enugu- Will be won by APC
Ebonyi- Will be won by APC
Imo- APC will win.

SOUTH SOUTH
Delta - APC will likely win
Edo - APC will definitely win
Bayelsa - Seriake Dickson will make ADC win.
Rivers- Can't say bcus you can't predict Wike.
Akwa-Ibom- APC will win
Cross Rivers- ADC can pull off a surprise

SOUTH WEST
Lagos- APC will win (Agberos will ensure it)
Osun- Can't say but they won't vote Tinubu.
Ogun- APC will win
Ondo- APC will win
Ekiti- APC will win
Oyo- Making could decide it

NORTH CENTRAL
Kwara- APC will win
Kogi- APC will win
Plateau- 50/50 for both ADC or APC
Benue- APC will win.
Taraba- APC will win
Nassarawa- ADC will win

CORE NORTH
Kano- ADC will clear it
Kaduna- ADC will win
Katsina- 50/50 for both parties
Sokoto- ADC will clear it
Adamawa- ADC will win
Niger- APC will win.
Other Northern states will decide the contest.

So Who do you think will emerge Winner between the two parties?

You couldn't hide your bias. APC can't win any southern eastern state but they should get reasonable votes in Ebonyi, Imo and Enugu. Seriake can't make ADC win Bayelsa, he is in NDC by the way. For you to say Wike is unpredictable is funny. ADC is non existent in kwara. ADC should narrowly win Edo and delta, the rest SS goes APC. All the SW states will go Tinubu. There's no way osun will vote obi, besides Adeleke said he supports Tinubu.
In the north central, ADC can only win plateau narrowly. The rest is Apc. Tinubu has kaduna as it stands. Apart from Kano, APC will win the entire core north except Adamawa and maybe Taraba.

IronCondemned:
It's about time.

APC implosion will be loud.

Episode 1: Scene 1.0

ADC own will be louder.

dalongjnr:
I can't argue with you because you get your informations from the Internet.
Have you ever imagined the fact that he won almost equal numbers of states with the Tinubu, despite buhari, the power of incumbents on the side of Tinubu, thankfully with the help of El rufai who remote controlled everything to Tinubu due to his friendship with the vice president!
Wallah,if not a last minute split decisions, Tinubu could have not been the president.

Atiku was never going to win Tinubu sir especially with obi contesting . Nothing surprising happened except Yobe and Gombe being won by Atiku. El rufai played a good role in the primaries and before, in the elections he lost his state. El rufai never hid his dislike for Tinubu, his fake support was due to his original choice of Amechi failing.
Buhari was majorly neutral, he reluctantly supported tinubu at the last minute which was negated by his cabal support for Atiku. Presidential elections is not won by number of states but by margins which Tinubu got well.
. I have always known that Atiku is not popular enough in the north and will likely struggle. It will get worse. Apart from Adamawa which Fintiri will divide, Atiku isn't sure of any other state. He can't win any southern state, he will be smothered in the south. He has no chance in the north central. Worst case, he wins NE and NW narrowly. He can't win sokoto and Kebbi again. Tinubu is set to win Kaduna and Katsina.

dalongjnr:
Out of the 32 governors that I personally know, only 10 are with the president, 9 are with atiku,2 with wike,4 with Jonathan,1 with ty danjuma,2
1 with el rufai,1 with wammakko,1 with badaru,2 with shettima,1 with nobody but God.
If the 22 are to betray him,then the president is going to have a hot 🔥 🥵 he'll of a contest in his hands but his powers of incumbents will give him an edge, if he doesn't panic and know how to use it. Though, he's already panicking judging by the way the APC National Congress was conducted.

You are funny. After all these years, you still underrated Tinubu. In 2023, Atiku didn't have up to 9 governors so how will 9 governors be with him? Any governor supporibg Gej is also supporting Tinubu. Atiku just can't win tinubu. Apart from Adamawa, I don't know which other state is sure for him sir

fergie001:
That's not even the cause.
Reconciliation talk had started. Wike and Bala Mohammed met & Bala said cancel your National Convention, let the factions unify and produce a National Caretaker but Wike insisted his National Convention must go on.

For Bala & Makinde, their Candidates will be contesting on the platforms of other parties but they have resolved to personally remain in the Party.

Me and you know that the apex court does not grant exparte orders except on rare cases. Let Wike convention go ahead so that he will be negotiating from a stronger place

fergie001:
You are correct.
Issues concerning chieftaincy matters fall within the residual list.... It is under the jurisdiction of State High Courts.

I told you that Alli is unstoppable, there's no body in makinde camp that can rival him. I won't be surprised if you are not smelling the dangerous desperation from Seyi

AMINDA:
Today's exclusive from People's Gazette. Meanwhile, Tinubu is still persecuting Sanwo-olu via Ms Achimugu for allegedly funding Atiku in 2023. We will all learn politics together.

Sule supported Osibanjo in 2023 and was alleged to have supported Atiku so it's nothing new. Tinubu still humiliated Atiku in nasarawa and will still humiliate him again

AMINDA:
Okay you now admit that APC governors got 500 billion naira for palliative but non-APC governors didn't. Why then are you surprised that governors are defecting to APC? They are doing it for "their people".

There is no evidence that such happened, it is mere propaganda similar to the one Obaseki made. Atiku has lost

[quote author=AMINDA post=138904286]From the horse's mouth. He has now defected to APC.

"I know of States that have received over 500 billion Naira from the Federal Government as palliative, but I have never received anything.

I think the reason I don't get it is because I'm not in APC.

-Dauda Lawal, Zamfara State Governor pic.twitter.com/QvfR8olibA

— Arewa Source (@Arewa_Source) February 17, 2026

palliatives not for defecting, stop misinterpreting or misinformation. Atiku has lost, you yourself know it

AMINDA:
Which governor will forgo 500 billion naira to join the ADC for free? How many governors delivered their states to Tinubu in 2023?

Did you see any governor getting 500 bil? How much did APC buy governors in 2015? A governor doesn't have to win his state, getting those significant votes while keeping the opposition in check is their main job. Atiku won three states in the south in 2023 and those three states had PDP governors. Infact, atiku has his highest votes where PDP had governors. You no Sabi politics

AMINDA:
Okay o. Salihu is nobody. Gawuna is nobody and even Kwankwaso is nobody in Kano. Time is a gentleman.

I never said Gawuna is a nobody. Gawuna has not defected, even kwankwaso is still in nnpp. Open your eyes, Atiku has lost

AMINDA:
Well, the North gave Tinubu 5.6m votes after he was resoundingly rejected in the South. In other words, the so-called "hausa fulani hegemony" made Tinubu president when he failed in 14 Southern states out of 17. Where is the arrogance coming from? Tinubu is still yet to consolidate support in the entire South. He camouflages it with defected governors but the pulse of the voting electorates are clearly not with him. Tinubu should immediately step aside and support Obi before it's too late.

Why has ADC failed to get a single governor? Your party is unattractive and failing... Atiku has lost more followers than any other politician. As it stands, Atiku is non-existent in all southern states, his defeat will be resounding

AMINDA:
Wake up and smell the coffee. Yesterday, it was Gawuna. Ganduje's men are leaving the APC in droves. That should tell you the current mindset of their principal. Who will now deliver Tinubu in Kano? Abba Kabir?

Which Ganduje men? What is salihu electoral value? Why do you always deceive your self? Atiku does not exist in Kano and Tinubu will always rubbish him there

AMINDA:
Does the AGF think he can wish this away? Why come out to lie that a dispute has been resolved when it's easily verifiable that it has not? Tinubu can't govern Nigeria on propaganda and lies. Nigerians deserve accountability.

Oga, your Atiku is dead wrong. He is pained that an agelong problem has been settled by Tinubu, he can't believe it. Did the parties in the case raise any issues? Atiku is a foolish person

fergie001:
Then why is he running up and down, let him go and beat Sule nah

Lol.

AMINDA:
Like many other defectees, he was deceived and carried handicap by the APC who promised him senate ticket only for AA Sule to become interested in the ticket. He doesn't want to be one of those who will stay behind and work against the party. Seunmsg, food don done o.

You clearly do not know politics. Ombugadu is pro wike and in extension pro Tinubu. You are just driven by hatred

fergie001:
I said it then Ombugadu is a very funny person.

You ran to the Party of your fiercest enemy to run for Senate. Now, he is going for Senate, you ran to your vomit...only unserious parties accept such persons.

Contest against Sule for Senate, he will still beat you silly.

This your permutations is not realistic. Ombugadu will beat Sule in Nasarawa north which is Christian/ Eggon dominated

fergie001:
Go and ask about Alli first.... just ask Ibadan people 😂

I did, he is more rated than Teslim and Adelabu. There is absolutely no one Makinde is bringing. This is another Obaseki/Asue saga

fergie001:
Opinions sampled do not go towards him. Seyi is trying to pick someone from Ogbomoso.

I don't want Ali, Ibadan should hand it over to another Zone though I know it's risky.

I told you before that PDP or Seyi doesn't have someone strong outside ibadan. Even within ibadan, there aren't many. I learnt Seyi is looking at the commissioner for budget. Alli satisfies many interests and groups.

fergie001:
This one he is apologising all over the place, he has been told in no unclear terms, APC Oyo won't support his Guber bid.

Senator Alli will be the new governor

Eriokanmi:
Where exactly will he win , with all the odds against him? Even those who believed him as Mr magician as he had claimed before the 2023 election have backtracked. If lies travelled in 20yrs, truth will meet and overtake it in one day. Those deflectors did so cos of their selfish interest, not because they loved voters. Those who put them there with their votes will still unseat them. They can only defect to the apc but can they force voters to go with them?

Is the odds in favour of obi or Atiku? Are you not tired of predicting doom against APC?
Tinubu already has SW,SS and NC. All he needs is to divide NW which is a done deal

Eriokanmi:
Everybody can't be a traitor. Ganuwa na kwakwanso boy

You have exposed your political ignorance again. Gawuna is a Ganduje boy

Usmanovic95:
With the way Tinubu is so desperately poaching governors and politicians to his side, it is evidently clear he never won that election.

So who evidently won

idonhammer:
Not when his rigging machines in the north have all ganged up against him.


His worst mistake is to humiliate his friend ElRufai

Dem will do him what they did to Ebele Jonathan in 2015..

Tinubu will bury ADC

raumdeuter:
Why is he the best, I am sure there are other options better than a professional politician who has not done anything else in his life besides political offices

Kindly suggest others that you think can win

raumdeuter:
I prefer guys who have solid private sector careers before joining politics. I don't know what Sarafa Alli did or achieved in his career before politics

I do not like professional politicians

He is the best APC has except you prefer Adelabu

fergie001:
Go to X, they are everywhere.... They just want an Alausa-controlled Ogun Gov.

So you want a Dapo controlled governor

raumdeuter:
I dont like this choice of Sarafa Alli for Oyo state

Why

Shikena:
Ali might get the ticket in Oyo by consensus. Aside his strong base in Ibadan, he has worked hard behind the scenes reaching out to key stakeholders in Ibarapa, Oyo, Oke-Ogun and Ogbomoso.

His cause is helped by the difficult alternatives like Adelabu and Folarin.
The major concern is his closeness to Oba Ladoja which may impact votes from Oyo and Oke-Ogun axis in a state where winning margin is always very close. However, feelers indicated that while Oyos & Oke-Oguns are justifiably aggrieved, their traditional bond with Ibadan is as strong as ever making consensus smoother in reality than on paper.

He will pick a strong running mate from Oyo north like Zacchaeus Adedeji or senator Fatai Buhari

Odidigboigbo:
Hamzat is a great guy but Jimi Benson is the best man for the Job

You are right but it has to b a muslim

AMINDA:
Atiku will be on the ballot. Makinde, Dickson and Bala Mohammed are in Kano to woe Kwankwaso and Obi to NDC. The more the merrier if this materialises. Tinubu will bleed votes in the South and bleed votes in the North. He just might come third.

Tinubu will bury Atiku down south and share north with him

Odidigboigbo:
Ambode or Jimi Benson; these two has proves themselves to be trusted with power. Abiru of a guy is useless and Gbaja is more useless. HMO is yet to be entrust with power, he might be a good guy.l, who knows

Your permutations are always off key. Ambo trusted with which power? How dare you say Abiru is useless? Lol