₦airaland Forum

leparj:
Will check it out.
1k per share is very poor.
Doesn't look worth it.
Thanks.

The dilution of 1 to 2 is huge. This will weigh access future share price growth down .

SonofElElyonRet:
Especially when the price for Access rights is higher than floor price which is strange. I want to sell my rights. Don't know how much one stands to gain.. 25,000 units of Access rights

Access Rights currently have no mark up above market price, hence are not sellable.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stock-futures-edge-lower-with-cpi-data-set-to-offer-more-rate-cues-3514786

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-tumbles-on-report-it-will-delay-robotaxi-unveiling-uber-lyft-rise-3516022

With these news, I wonder how much the magnificent 7 with very high PE's will be fairing with prices that currently have future growth already booked in. It's a little annoying Nigerian banks are currently being forced to do a capital raise when current prices are a giveway. The capital raising will only dilute the future growth of Nigerian bank shares especially for those raising funds at very low PE's.

SonofElElyonRet:
What is Babs02's response ?

Not looking at bragging rights but issues I see as fundamental. Top most of which is any capital raising activity be it rights or public offer, will lead to reduction of rate of returns to shareholders. As the capital raising is taking place at a time the shares are selling at huge discounts to book value. Even at that Access has an argument in that it will do only a rights issue, which in a way protects current shareholders that can take up their rights. But this line of thought is flawed for small shareholdings, as this can be picked up on the floor at even cheaper rates. Only the fat cats will need the rights offer to achieve taking up quantities that match their FAT holdings.

I am taking up my Fidelity rights issue by selling in market to buy the rights. The fat cats will have their way in Access and perhaps GTCO in maintaining proportions of their share holding.

https://nairametrics.com/2024/07/10/access-holdings-explains-why-its-issued-shares-price-is-higher-than-market-price/#google_vignette

I think ACCESS is only offering rights. That's why Aig mentioned they don't want dilution but will offer the goodies as reward for loyal (BIG) existing shareholders. It makes sense as the shares are indeed over under priced looking at these numbers quoted in the link.

Using the offer price of N19.75, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 1.15 for the issued share is notably lower compared to its industry peers.

For instance, FBNH shares have a P/E ratio of 2.62, GTCO shares are at 2.36, UBA shares stand at 1.32, and Zenith Bank shares are at 1.74.

This disparity suggests that Access Bank shares trading in the market with a 1.12 P/E ratio may be significantly undervalued.


There is a high likelihood all these big banks will continue to rally in price this year and in the coming years also.

Oando is recruiting. Seen several adverts in the past. And then this current one.

mikeapollo:
Almost 54m units of Oando traded today!

That is not a small volume. The Oando bull cleared all the Oando bears (nay sayers & profit takers) that were creating a resistance in the N16 range, shattering their resistance. Leaping in full & perfect 10% throttle from N15.5 to N17.
Let's see what next week brings.
Will more bears come out ? Will the bull lose strength ?

Streetinvestor2:
They say the next resistance or support is at 16+,lol. I am really interested to see what happens after that.i am learning this TA gradually

Perhaps some TA traders will start dumping at that price leading to the so called resistant as panic sets in unless strong bulls blast through that resistance. A blast through is okay on the Oando journey of higher highs and higher lows. N16 will then be the new low point.

mikeapollo:
There seems to be some players who want to maintain Oando's price within a range so they can mop up as much as possible.
If you believe in the prospects of the stocks, then do not bother about what those guys do. Just focus on your investment goals and target price.
I had wanted to buy more of Oando, but the recent price hike has affected my target units. I will wait until sometime later and buy more before they release the Q1 2024 results

I am waiting at N11 junction to offer a support or is it resistant .

SonofElElyonRet:
No.. right now na guaranteed minimum returns of N7

That is OANDO is an investment (or is it gamble) with a guaranteed low and a probable huge upside

.

megawealth01:
Na gamble jare na just sure gamble E be

Became sure gamble with buy out offer joor.
Without na pure gamble.

SonofElElyonRet:
At N5.50 you are no gambler my friend

Buying at N5.50 is a gamble if bought before the N7.07 buy out offer

sky2891:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/41618_OANDO_PLC-OANDO_PLC_-_PRESS_RELEASE__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JULY_2024.pdf

This company is ready for business

.

Mankind2024:
There's no bubble in sight, as the fundamentals are incredibly strong. The Magnificent 7 (Mag7) are the foundation of the 5th Industrial Revolution. Just wait until fully autonomous self-driving taxi services become a reality. They're already 100 miles ahead of their closest competitors.
All the forecasters, anticipators, and analysts who predicted a bubble have been humbled by the resilience of the S&P 500 and NYSE.
Now, they are working on possible China vs US War, Nuclear War with Russia. Until then, enjoy the ride. The next time I flash NGX portfolio Vs NYSE, the growth disparity would be clearer.
Volatility, yes👍An opportunity to buy more.
This is where investment research meets future expectations and anticipated actions.

These PE's are scarily high. Any slippage in anticipated growth due to the so called 5th industrial revolution and there will be major price correction.

39 Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
55 Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN):
34 Apple (AAPL):
29 Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) (META)
71 NVIDIA (NVDA):
28 Alphabet (GOOGL)
53 Tesla (TSLA):

Mankind2024:
Trading
My intrinsic mentality is investing for future wealth.
NSEMPA investors should consider investing in the Magnificent 7. Limiting oneself to NGX could lead to financial constraints. The impact of the ongoing right issues on the value of the Naira and overall portfolio outlook by 2025 remains uncertain.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMCrzNUMUag?si=VT0XtNyDEGKYat8H

Had to look up who these magnificent 7 are

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN):
Apple (AAPL):
Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) (FB)
NVIDIA (NVDA):
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Tesla (TSLA):

They all look heavily overpriced inside a bubble right now

Any small correction, those buying now can lose so much money.

Tony has done very well in the last 10 years

I came to the same thought on UBA also that it likely invests in the TE ecosystem. That UBA will likely not have high levels of impairment costs compared to other banks going forward. I was not surprised a couple of years back when a couple of international Nigerian banks were impacted by Ghana credit issues with impairment costs and UBA was not impacted. As UBA had a better funnel to put funds to work in TE ecosystem.

Mankind2024:
I'm betting on Tony Elumelu ecosystem to outperform the index by Dec 2024.
Why I Decided to Invest in Tony Elumelu-Listed Companies and ecosystem.
As a contrarian, long-term self-investor, I have been analyzing and following these companies since 2017:
* UCAP Plc
* Transcorp Hotels Plc
* Transcorp Plc
* UBA Plc
* Afriprudential Plc
*2024 - Transcorp Power Plc
Reasons for My Investment Choices
* UCAP Plc: I believe UCAP Plc is on track to reach a predictable N60 per share by 2028 assuming a slow growth rate and conservative capital appreciation. It is well-positioned to provide infrastructure funds, capital raising, and short- and long-term lnvestment banking services for the listed companies in the ecosystem.
* UBA Plc: UBA Plc is likely to be the primary bank for this group of companies, UBA will provide the capital ingredients for the ecosystem. If TE releases the capital trapped in UBA, it would be one of the most capitalised Banks.
* Afriprudential Plc: Afriprudential Plc is the designated registrar for all the mentioned companies and the ongoing potential for diversity.
* Transcorp Plc: Transcorp Plc is a conglomerate with valuable assets under management.
* Transcorp Power Plc: I view Transcorp Power Plc as a promising company with significant future earnings potential within the Tony Elumelu ecosystem. .
* Transcorp Hotels Plc: The annual meetings for these companies are likely to be held at Transcorp Hotels Plc. The hotel is also a designated Choice for VIP dignitaries in Abuja, the Ongoing Lagos Transcorp Hotel project is another winning stroke.
Investment objective
In ten years, I believe a new seed of N10 million investment in this ecosystem could potentially return value to investors.
Tony Elumelu is a TORTOISE investor. Journey with him from afar and join the next generation of NGX Billionaires.

Disclaimer
This is not a financial advice.

mikeapollo:
Well, it depends, if there are no pressure from outside.
Recently, SEC rejected the buy-out of minority shareholders and delisting by PZ Cussons.
Can they do same for Oando? I don't know for sure.

Even if Oando want to delist, the exit price can never be the crazy N7.07. It has to be much higher than that.
People who bought on the market when the price was N3-N5 would still make some money!

You wrote earlier that OANDO used to pay relatively good dividends before the upstream acquisitions. After the acquisitions things got really rough. Likely due to over-payment for the assets and the down turn in the oil industry immediately after the acquisition. Hence there is antecedent that Wale led management pays dividends when the company makes money.

On the delisting issue. There is a possibility this was triggered by the power tussle to over throw Wale led management and the imposition of a new management by SEC to replace the Wale led one. Now that that tussle is over and Wale in the last AGM stated clearly that they had to pay off some shareholders, I guess the FAT troubling shareholders are already out. But since the delisting card was already started and the bus already left the station before the FAT shareholder was paid off to exit peacefully, the bus will continue in motion till it comes to a stop. Wale said delisting may happen and it may not happen. Wale said paying dividends is not an issue once the turnaround goes smoothly with distributable incomes. That this should not be an issue since they earn in $$$$$$s

bovali:
Been quiet about Oando, but I don’t think people really looked into their books. But I’ll leave that conversation for another day

Please don't leave that conversation for another day. We want to know now now. As some of us are Bullish on Oando becoming a beautiful turnaround story not only for Wale but for we common shareholders also

bovali:
Don’t underestimate their expansion. I remember when UBA was doing its west African expansion, now they bring a chunk of the groups revenue. Also remember that access bank bought some of these outside banks at a discount I.e from atlas Mara. Don’t also forget that they now sit on arm pensions as a group. Isn’t that the second largest pension at the time? I think it’s grossly undervalued in my opinion

On Access. I am not bullish or bearish on their expansion but neutral. I am just pointing out where one should watch closely as a fundamental investor. Watch their subsidiaries closely for profits. If one can be ahead of the market with insight of key impactful subsidiaries doing excellently one can buy bullishly ahead of the local market. Afterall as you highlighted they got some, at deep discount. Perhaps that's why they got bullish and took additional USD at higher interest rate to close out the deal. And I guess over the years they locked in some NGN into USD to purchase these assets at lower exchange rates. I guess the assets we need to watch closely are in the picture below.

I am however bullish on OANDO. And will start buying more (small small) once the price falls below N11. I will like to know that thing on OANDO that you have. Please share as I am bullish on OANDO

nosa2:
Please when did they raise this capital? I've not been looking at the Nigerian markets

A summary of the additional tier 1 USD capital is in their last annual report on Page 204. Total is USD 800m. The older instrument has an interest rate of 5.25% and the newer one has an interest of 15%. See picture below.

I guess these USD capital raised as well as NGN shareholder funds converted to USD at lower rates in years back must have been used to fund their African expansion. If the expansion goes well Access will do well.

Picky1:
Wow, I get your view and it looks objective though not very convincing
Guys, does anyone have a contrary view? Ewumi, Nosa2, etc... your comment please!

Access has also been growing on the back of additional Tier 1 capital raised in USD to fund it's aggressive African expansion. If the expansion falters shareholders will pay for it using NGN. If the expansion succeeds the USD Tier 1 capital instrument holders will get the bulk of profits through coupon payments on the USD instrument. That means NGN shareholders have a big exposure to potential FX costs and losses if the African expansion falters, while having a probable upside should the African expansion generate returns above the coupon payments for the Tier 1 Capital instrument holders.

Going forward - One needs to monitor the contributions of the African expansion - if it is far above the cost of funds used to procure the expansion. If it isn't, the share price will not appreciate much.

bovali:
Someone should help me understand something. This Beta glass. They are paying dividend of 1.4 naira this Thursday but they have 50 billion in retained earnings while the market cap is 34.8 billion. Our market sha

It simply means book value is less than 1. Nearly all the banks have a book value less than 1. Many insurance companies too.

debeey87:
No rights circular was released now. Been waiting to see the info

Waiting to see the rights prospectus too, with the projections of the financial statements. Has any projections been issued?

Mpeace:
I hear say UBA right issue will be at N34.
All these people sef.

That will be nice if it sails through.

mikeapollo:
I guess the Oando momentum is being manipulated.
About 397m units were traded on the NGX yesterday. So what has changed?

Or its the trading on JSE reopening today that is causing the pull back (likely not, just a coincidence).

Or perhaps there are big/small funds fed up with OANDO management and determined to exit at different price points like N12, N13, N16, N20, N50 etc. And those with shaky/moving price targets. They create the supply volumes that come up when new bullish funds push past these prices. Till results are all green, this back and forth should be expected.

megawealth01:
OANDO

The rush sha

Make him no wane quick o. New high needed above N20 before any pull back joor.

Princkez:
This one everywhere is quite...

Stress of current strike - Power outage, running generators, long queues for fuel.

Mpeace:
Expenses na where oga them dey settle...

That's where shareholders can get heavily fleeced by the oga's running the show.

Mpeace:
I saw q2 eps of 11. Before ai knw wetin dey happen full year eps turn to 6.
Anything can happen.

That Q2 was from one off forex gain due to devaluation. The business throughout 2023 is making losses every quarter as expenses exceed incomes. Expenses need to go down and incomes up (or incomes need to grow faster than the growth of expenses) for steady profits - will that be the story for 2024 ?

Bagwa:
Oando is doing very well, I didn’t see any company listed in NGX that generate 3.5 Trillion in a year. Oando is the matter of time and i know what am saying, you will never see oando below 20 Naira again . Oando is stock of 200+ you will all remember this I know what am saying

That N3.5T revenue looks like it's from trading in crude oil. Buy and sell crude oil with very very tiny margins. And once in a while in some quarters this trading ends up at a loss. I don't think there is any other company listed on the NGX with such razor thin margins on revenue. Would be nice to see OANDO revenue breakdown by line of business. That will be a better revenue picture, what do you think?