₦airaland Forum

currentprice:
15 - 16 is TA good support entry zone here...

can the on going capital raising allow it to reach the zone?

Time will tell

patience is the key no rushing

Averaged up UBA at N22 today. I am betting on any capital raising not less than N25 which may come up after a good interim dividend of 50kobo or even N1.0. Maybe I'm too bullish on the TOE and his mantra "The future of Africa is in our hands".

That TA support looks too low. Except there is very bad news on windfall tax / hair cut.

yMcy56:
Those guys have deep pockets and knows how to create liquidity if they needed a stock at cheaper price.....
They've been queing and couldn't get, so there's the need to create liquidity so they can also have their fill too.

See the way they stabilize the price of DS when it went on full offer for like 2wks or so that time......
So they call the shots in this market o.

So far, it's retailers that are trying to sell in market.....

Huge volumes.
41 million units of Oando changed hands at a cost of N1.8b today.
Last Friday was also huge with 52 million units changing hands at a cost N2.1b

Deep pockets have been coming now and then to pick up Oando units in the last 3 years. Perhaps this one will wane at this N40 resistance with prices falling back 50% after the deep pocket funds get exhausted. Perhaps not. We'll see how it goes.

SonofElElyonRet:
I've even told her that I'm not selling.. I bought at N18.50 so i can afford to be calm.. no way it's falling that bad.. probably N40 or N38 if it falls, before rebounding..

Perhaps it's an entity taking position and has expended its cash for now. If it reloads cash the journey up may resume. However it may pause purchases for a while if it seems many offers coming out. How far down the sellers will take profit who knows.

SonofElElyonRet:
I use this... good too.. sometimes little delay as well

https://afx.kwayisi.org/ngx/

Can see it's a loaded site also.

Good to see the wind behind Oando is still very strong pushing it to N40.60 Hopefully that will be the closing price for this week with the wind sustaining higher levels in coming trading days.

For those asking for a place to monitor prices live.
Apart from stock broker site or apps, a cheap place to monitor for free is https://www.investing.com/equities (there may be a 15 to 30 minutes delay in the live relay)

For example for Oando the current price can be see here https://www.investing.com/equities/oando-plc.
Can see the price is now N40.60 with a gain of N3.65 (+9.88%) compared to yesterday's closing.
One can search for other Nigerian stocks of interest through this page and save the pages for specific stocks on https://www.investing.com/equities.

megawealth01:
Foreign inflow into the NGX rises to $161.4 million in first half of 2024

https://nairametrics.com/2024/08/06/foreign-inflow-into-the-ngx-rises-to-161-4-million-in-first-half-of-2024/

Heard on Arise News this afternoon that foreign investors are keying into Nigerian Banks.

Perhaps after they push it from relative current lows, that's when some local investors will find em attractive and start buying at higher prices.

ProphetUtuocha:
The wind on Oando's back remains strong
The excitement continues

Good to see Oando cross N30 today.

That wind is like the exhaust of combusted air from the gas turbine of a jet engine delivering full thrust to gain altitude rapidly

Perhaps the wind will sustain a close at N40 this week.

Streetinvestor2:
That equally means he is being proactive against the dollars. That means he must have been investing in gold or something else.I read whr he is of the opinion that the dominance of dollars as the world currency can not be guaranteed going forward

Would be interesting to know if he is holding only USD cash & cash equivalents or buying exotic stuff like gold. My guess is USD cash and cash equivalents. Also that he still sees the dollar dominating over the next decade. Slight movements here and there. But not a major collapse.

vacanci:
If you failed to buy the global stocks today because you think global recession is imminent, then you have missed a big opportunity. Most of the US stocks opened very low today at mostly15% loss and are already recovering. From 15% loss to about 3 to 5% loss by close of trade. Some that entered today's low are already on about 10% gain. After hour prices for most US stocks are in green now.
The Japanese index that was shedding almost 22% later ended up at 13% and hopefully by tomorrow, recovery will be in sight.
I cannot see any global recession even for the fact that Buffet is stock piling cash. He has been doing that for couple of years. Everyone knows that Warren likes to keep cash. It's nothing new.

Buffet is the topmost Fundamental Investor. If he has been stock piling cash as you said, there is a very high likelihood a lot of stocks have unrealistically high PE's. And the risk of correction is high.

Agbalowomeri:
Gidigbo gidigbo

It's like telling Dangote refinery to pay capital gains windfall tax on the valuation windfall of N14T in comprehensive income logged as fx gains for the refinery in 2023 due to massive naira devaluation.

Bank mgt to announce position on windfall tax on Monday 12th of August.

Pesuzok:
Exactly my thoughts. But why did the banks not report the revaluation in their balance sheet and leave it out from their comprehensive income. The banks might have brought this upon themselves

Not sure if regulatory financial reporting for banks permit revaluation in their balance sheet for significant amounts brought by over a 100% devaluation of Naira with respect to dollar assets. But going forward I see the banks making ways to be less aggressive in reporting the gains. Won't be surprised if we start seeing re-statements of 2023 gains in 2024Q3 reports and 2024 FY reports.

sky2891:
https://punchng.com/tinubu-bank-ceos-hold-closed-door-meeting-over-windfall-tax/

They will likely explain to him (& Senators) that the alleged FX windfall is mostly revaluation of non cash assets like dollar loans given to Dangote for his refinery. It's like saying Dangote Refinery of $20 billion has moved from a valuation of 20x500=N10T to 20x1200=N24T that is Dangote Refinery has a windfall FX gain of N14T. What is being discussed concerning banks is like telling Dangote Refinery to pay a 70% Windfall tax on the alleged N14T Fx gain in this example. The tax is largely a goose chase. I hope the bankers will make the president understand this issue. The Forex gains that can be paid by banks is that realized in the Profit statement. And not the notional FX revaluation of assets in the Comprehensive income.

Mpeace:
But only a profit making company can repatriate or export $. Mtn has not made profit since this govt took over so they cannot export $. It shouldn't therefore be said that they are not good for the economy.

Who said MTN services is not good for the economy or needed by the Nigerian Economy. Don't mix business model of long term sucking $$$'s away from Nigeria with valuable Telecoms business service delivered.

Unbalance is the key issue I am raising. It needs a counter balance by injecting money in a $$$ generating subsidiary like Cocoa, Palm oil (like PRESCO) or whatever Nigeria can export to generate $$$ stream for their foreign shareholders.

Mankind2024:
Oh, ye defenders of MTNN, you forgot to mention the truth - that MTNN is now being run on depositor loans taken from Nigerian banks despite the huge revenue figures. Where were you when MTNN siphoned $15 billion from the Nigerian economy? Nigeria did not collapse. Nothing will happen; no one is indispensable. MTNN remains a forex guzzler. I have never seen a company that loves our forex reserves like your beloved MTNN.
Long stories change nothing. I accept the truth that MTNN is undesirable yet unavoidable.

MTN has a business model of taking profit out of Nigeria in $$$'s from the naira it generates from users in Nigeria.
MTN must have repatriated the original dollars it invested in multiples. But because it's a foreign concern that generates no dollars as it exports nothing out of the country to generate dollars, MTN as it is today, is not good for the economy. As it will need the dollars businesses who have export streams that generate dollars. Most of Nigeria's dollars come from crude oil sales. MTN will always be in need of sucking this dollars away. To solve this problem, MTN needs to start a subsidiary that can generate dollars from Nigeria's comparative advantage. Perhaps it should invest in Cocoa or Palm Oil (like PRESCO) for export. Without something like this MTN, will continue to put pressure on the relative little $$$'s Nigerian companies generate.

Good to see major improvements in Nigeria Stock market investment Systems. I just took my Fidelity Bank Rights on the NGX platform. And the process for taking it up on the NGX site is excellent!!!. https://invest.ngxgroup.com/

Good to see Oando breakthrough N20

thebargainhunte:
https://leadership.ng/dangote-refinery-resells-both-imported-local-crude-oil/

What prompted this?

They could be reselling the crude they already bought instead of refining for any of the following reasons
* Problem with the refinery. Some units may not be working properly ?
* Cutting losses as the cost of some of their key refined products (Petrol, Diesel or whatever) exceed current market prices.
* Playing out a strategy. (what could this play be about?)
*

Mpeace:
Then why tax them if they are not monotized. Will the banks pay the said tax buy selling those assets or from the small money wey them fey follow give us the usual peanut.

50% Tax on 2023 Bank Forex Gains

I am still surprised at the whole thing.

A bank that has foreign instruments in dollars, mostly in subsidiaries outside Nigeria plus some dollar assets on loan to Nigerian companies like Dangote Refinery. Is the government saying they should sell some of those assets to generate cash for tax?. Those of their foreign subsidiaries or those of the main Nigerian subsidiary in order to create cash to give government. Sounds senseless.

Perhaps it's un-invested liquid assets of the banks that will be grabbed for calculating the tax. To me it's like calling Dangote to come and pay forex gain tax on his refinery because the refinery cost $18b which translates to Naira 9T in 2023 Q1 but became N18T in 2024Q4 with a notional FX gain of N9T now to be taxed at 50%. More clarity needed as some greedy politicians must be mistaking the FX gains of banks as raw cash. They may push the banks to find it more attractive to declare FX losses which will be very very bad for the already weak economy.

Mpeace:
If they are to tax fx gains, they should as well allow dividends to be paid there from. It is not profit if shareholders do not benefit from it

Those fx gains are not cash flow. They are FX assets that have a translational gain in Naira. Those fx financial assets may even be tied more to foreign subsidiaries of these banks. To monitize it into naira will even require selling of the financial assets.

leparj:
Will check it out.
1k per share is very poor.
Doesn't look worth it.
Thanks.

The dilution of 1 to 2 is huge. This will weigh access future share price growth down .

SonofElElyonRet:
Especially when the price for Access rights is higher than floor price which is strange. I want to sell my rights. Don't know how much one stands to gain.. 25,000 units of Access rights

Access Rights currently have no mark up above market price, hence are not sellable.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stock-futures-edge-lower-with-cpi-data-set-to-offer-more-rate-cues-3514786

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-tumbles-on-report-it-will-delay-robotaxi-unveiling-uber-lyft-rise-3516022

With these news, I wonder how much the magnificent 7 with very high PE's will be fairing with prices that currently have future growth already booked in. It's a little annoying Nigerian banks are currently being forced to do a capital raise when current prices are a giveway. The capital raising will only dilute the future growth of Nigerian bank shares especially for those raising funds at very low PE's.

SonofElElyonRet:
What is Babs02's response ?

Not looking at bragging rights but issues I see as fundamental. Top most of which is any capital raising activity be it rights or public offer, will lead to reduction of rate of returns to shareholders. As the capital raising is taking place at a time the shares are selling at huge discounts to book value. Even at that Access has an argument in that it will do only a rights issue, which in a way protects current shareholders that can take up their rights. But this line of thought is flawed for small shareholdings, as this can be picked up on the floor at even cheaper rates. Only the fat cats will need the rights offer to achieve taking up quantities that match their FAT holdings.

I am taking up my Fidelity rights issue by selling in market to buy the rights. The fat cats will have their way in Access and perhaps GTCO in maintaining proportions of their share holding.

https://nairametrics.com/2024/07/10/access-holdings-explains-why-its-issued-shares-price-is-higher-than-market-price/#google_vignette

I think ACCESS is only offering rights. That's why Aig mentioned they don't want dilution but will offer the goodies as reward for loyal (BIG) existing shareholders. It makes sense as the shares are indeed over under priced looking at these numbers quoted in the link.

Using the offer price of N19.75, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 1.15 for the issued share is notably lower compared to its industry peers.

For instance, FBNH shares have a P/E ratio of 2.62, GTCO shares are at 2.36, UBA shares stand at 1.32, and Zenith Bank shares are at 1.74.

This disparity suggests that Access Bank shares trading in the market with a 1.12 P/E ratio may be significantly undervalued.


There is a high likelihood all these big banks will continue to rally in price this year and in the coming years also.

Oando is recruiting. Seen several adverts in the past. And then this current one.

mikeapollo:
Almost 54m units of Oando traded today!

That is not a small volume. The Oando bull cleared all the Oando bears (nay sayers & profit takers) that were creating a resistance in the N16 range, shattering their resistance. Leaping in full & perfect 10% throttle from N15.5 to N17.
Let's see what next week brings.
Will more bears come out ? Will the bull lose strength ?

Streetinvestor2:
They say the next resistance or support is at 16+,lol. I am really interested to see what happens after that.i am learning this TA gradually

Perhaps some TA traders will start dumping at that price leading to the so called resistant as panic sets in unless strong bulls blast through that resistance. A blast through is okay on the Oando journey of higher highs and higher lows. N16 will then be the new low point.

mikeapollo:
There seems to be some players who want to maintain Oando's price within a range so they can mop up as much as possible.
If you believe in the prospects of the stocks, then do not bother about what those guys do. Just focus on your investment goals and target price.
I had wanted to buy more of Oando, but the recent price hike has affected my target units. I will wait until sometime later and buy more before they release the Q1 2024 results

I am waiting at N11 junction to offer a support or is it resistant .

SonofElElyonRet:
No.. right now na guaranteed minimum returns of N7

That is OANDO is an investment (or is it gamble) with a guaranteed low and a probable huge upside