₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
Let us come down to 2006 Oando public offer was almost N100, I bought Aradel in 2016 for roughly N200.

It was sold Over The Counter so the share price will be cheaper than the other one quoted on NGX .
Shareholders of the other company from 2004 till date will tell you they experienced wealth erosion in the last 20 years

If Oando returned minimum of 10% capital appreciation per annum from 2006 to 2016 the share price ought to be over N200 after 10 years and about N400 in 2024.

Unipetrol was more expensive than Nestle in 2003. I remember buying Nestle and African Petroleum now Ardova for N20 each

Aradel paid dividends consistenly in the past 20 years , compared to the other company that didn't pay for almost a decade

Mr Time and Chance play their cards too.

Oando must have over paid for ConocoPhillips in hind sight as it wrecked its cash flow.

Won’t be surprised if dividends is restored soon by Oando

Mpeace:
Minus fx gains, gtco still topped them all.
Wetin Access dey do sef. Only billion from core banking in six months.

Cc; Nairametrics.com

Further supports the need for Tony to work harder to get the market support a re-capitalization price closer to that of Zenith and GTCO

emmanuelewumi:
The key word is fair and God fearing leaders.


By the way Unipetrol now Oando was far bigger than NDEP now Aradel in 1990.

It started as a small consulting firm of geologists and geophysicists. By the way the founder has a PhD in Geology, in his early 80s and now retired .

The company did not miss dividend payments in the last 20 years

Pray he starts with paying naira dividends as promised sooner than many expect

megawealth01:
Don't worry just start with whatever you have and build your WEALTH slowly but steadily. Get a real life financial mentor possibly someone you can also get counsel from in person. You will soon be cruising in good monies

If this one on the airwaves that had no money to pay salaries at a time, this your $1 valuation may happen as Mr TIME pleases. I am moving from N170 & N400 PE analyst valuation to 50cents sef

Agbalowomeri:
Dem say Agbaje tif money

Maybe we go fit see am for N20 in November

Which kind bad wish be this

emmanuelewumi:
My account officer in a stockbroking firm was earning less than N2 million per annum in 2008, the guy called Hakeem built a portfolio of ocer N30 million, had the opportunity to buy a block of 4 flats at Agege for around N8 million from a desperate seller but he kept on buying more penny stocks, insurance stocks , private placements, High Yield Investment Schemes of Nospetco and Sefteg until he found himself at ground zero.

The stockbroking firm closed shop in 2014.

Hakeem is now a farmer, doing averagely well but still found it extremely difficult to forgive himself

I hope people don't read it as derogatory that Hakeem became a farmer. Today people are hungry because we have lot's of fertile lands that are not cultivated especially in Southern Nigeria (to feed millions of hungry people) despite high levels of employment, perhaps because people have been looking down on farming and farmers and some would rather harvest where they didn't sow instead of planting their own .

KarlTom:
TOE way

He never stop investors selling.
Perhaps when final come they’ll stop selling anyhow

Sunrisepebble:
What is driving Ellah? They invited a broker friend of mine over a few weeks ago and he told me nothing is really going on there besides piggery at the moment

And someone reported here a broker that also visited bought some at 2.9

Does nothing is really going on there means there are no lands with palm trees growing on them with fruits coming up for harvest soon?

unite4real:
In a sane clime, Zenith Bank stocks price is supposed to take a hit after having 4 days of downtime and trapped funds.

I guess a couple of other banks had (or have) their mobile apps down also. Looks like an attack on some mobile apps by internet agberos.

megawealth01:
He is condemning oando

A critical write up is not a 100% praise song

megawealth01:
Hope you understood what he wrote?

A valuation of N400/Share. And the basis for it. Not just a wet finger number .
I made my own valuation of N170 per share too on this thread based on some assumptions.
And some have a valuation of N0 per share based on net assets as deduced from last published annual reports.
And yours is $1

robobo:
"It has a Certified Professional Reserves Report (CPR) from D&M, the second largest in the world, which has also been auditing ENI/NAOC, Chevron, Shell and other oil Majors for decades.

With the CPR indicating Gross Recoverable 2p reserves on original 20 per cent Certificate of Proficiency (CoP) stake and new NAOC 20 per cent stake Net Present Value (NPV), (10 per cent is $2 billion respectively), total value of the company has now hit $4 billion, that is, before deduction of acquisition debt of the newly acquired company plus legacy debt.

When appropriate discounts are applied, including working capital, Actual Net Asset Value (NAV) of company, less all long term debt, equity value is about $3 billion."


so Oando don dey release result without releasing result hmmm na wa ooo

Net equity value of $3b (after deducting all debt/ liabilities) hmmmmm which equals N4.8 trillion

meaning at 12b outstanding shares equity value is N400/share

God is watching all of us on 5D


Is this signalling?

You must be a Petroleum Engineering analyst speaking. .

freeman67:
ELLAHLAKES MH seem to have finished selling to the villagers. Now they are looking for who to buy but....
Bus don spoil for road conduct lock door with passengers inside come run away.

No no no.
Conductor go look for more fuel (bullion van, 2024 Q3 etc) as the journey far
Even if the bus begin roll back no worries.

Ginalex:
Waiting for the day Tony will remember transcorp and power but for now, we go use UBA hold bele

Transcorp has already kicked off with interim dividend payment this year. Paid two dividends of 10kobo each this year.

Streetinvestor2:
Don't put your expectations too high for final dividend. I expect it not to be more than #2 which is still ok .This should place the price btw #35- #40. I feel they will come for recapitalisation after 2024 results

Just discussing what I think UBA management needs to do in view of their good numbers, current market price and forced CBN capital raise exercise.

Not a buy or sell recommendation. Just a stock discuss. Prices may go up or down.

Agbalowomeri:
Lol bid that will end next trading day

It may and it may not. I think UBA needs to take time to build their numbers (reputation ). Work very hard to get a CBN mandated capital raise price closer to what Zenith and GTCO just did. It made the first move towards this with a massive interim dividend. It still needs to work towards a final dividend of not less than N3 next year. These will show its results and numbers are real and not just audio.

Not a buy or sell recommendation. Just a discussion. Prices may go up or down.

BabsO2:
Though UBA is currently more underpriced than Zenith or GTCO, its CBN mandated capital raise need to be priced closer to Zenith for several reasons.

In 2007 the public offer prices for the banks were
UBA N35.00 (rights was N34)
Zenith N38.90 (rights was N36.90)
FB N33.00 (rights was N31)
ACCESS N14.90
Fidelity N8:00
FCMB N14:00

2023 FY and 2024Q1 Book Values per share
UBA N57.37 & N73.81
Zenith N73.95 & N90.61
FB N47.88 & N52.53
ACCESS N42.34 & N **(looks lower than many quote)
Fidelity N13.67 & N14.6
FCMB N19.4 & N 22.62

Looking at earnings per share UBA, Access, Zenith and GTCO are competing strongly with Zenith in the lead and UBA attempting to drag position with GTCO. But I guess investors will place premiums on consistent dividend payout and growth. Zenith and GTCO are leading here.

Quoting my last week Monday discuss and commenting further:

With the N2 dividend payout UBA is now working nicely to get the valuation it deserves, a CBN mandated capital raise price that will be closer to Zenith and GTCO offer prices.

crownprince2017:
I hope this will not be one time off things.
I also hope tony will not collect the change on year end dividend.

Just thinking out loud.

That jump is massive. Can they sustain a total dividend not less than N5 year in the years ahead after a capital raise. Management (Tony) needs to out clearly with a message like this.

Mpeace:
We watch how the market reacts. The result is not as good as last year. Lower PAT and lower eps compared to last year.
This is a "rights issue" influenced interim dividend.

I will still take GTCO and Zenith over UBA.

Have you crunched the numbers side by side. UBA is relatively undervalued compared to Zenith and GTCO (& many other Tier 1 & 2 banks) if you crunch the numbers based on last week closing prices.

sky2891:
Both need that controlling power in the bank. They know the huge benefit that will give them especially in running their businesses (e.g Geregu and Honeywell respectively). I guess none of them will be willing to hands off just like that.

FBNH: See how they are holding back dividend payment to shareholders. Agree they are both in it for their insider benefits and not shareholder benefits. It's clear Otudeko was not there for Shareholders in the past.

.
.

Agbalowomeri:
Maybe that explains the packing of stockbrokers to the farm

They need to get the market not to under-price the worth of the business. Our market is generally relatively underpriced for various reasons you know.

Streetinvestor2:
Do you have idea what made up the expenses. If the expenses is not waste then no problem.



Like what I said in the past.If they had shown the farm size occupying the palm trees since they are already harvesting maginal fruit. And structure on ground to transform fruit to palm oil instead of paparazzi. It would have made better sense

No idea of what made up the expenses. It should be normal expenses to keep a business going. Pay fat cats at the top and the general workforce including security personnel. Pay for electricity etc.

unite4real:
Their strategy maybe quite different from Presco and Okomu.

OS is around 3B units and its likely they will do another round of recapitalization to raise fund. OS might hit 10B few years from now.

I sense a likely recapitalization may be needed to buy equipment if they want to get better margins like PRESCO & OKOMU. And perhaps a reason to push the price up and match it with some positive earnings in 2024/2025
They need to get market not to under-price the worth of the business.

Streetinvestor2:
No wahala. Thr is positive things in the results. I had expected that to show positive in retained earnings or flat but not going further south. The audited result will show more true colour. I hope they are not copying flour mill kind of yeye results. Top will be fantastic but bottom will be nothing to appreciate

They have drained their earnings to negative through expenses. It can only turn positive till they have new earnings.

chimex38:
Shey na Equity/OS?
Then, it seems you are right on BV per Share.

Thanks. Questions now is validity of the Revaluation Surplus estimate of ₦15b and if there are other shares apart from the 2,753,786,788 ordinary shares that may show up as a result of stock split or whatever other things not yet recorded.

Streetinvestor2:
ok BV in the positive based on asset/liability. Why is the retained earnings still heading south

ositadima1:
Why is the total equity heading north for a company that is not generating revenue? Even before the right issue.

Asset in the Oil Palm Agric business even has a way of creeping up as seen from historical records of PRESCO that I followed.
The book value I calculated is based on 2,753,786,788 ordinary shares@ ₦0.50 each.
Questions I see are solidity of the Revaluation Surplus estimate of ₦15b and if there are other shares apart from the 2,753,786,788 ordinary shares that may show up as a result of stock split or whatever.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42078_ELLAH_LAKES_PLC.-ELLAH_LAKES_PLC-PRESS_RELEASE_ON_Q4_UNAUDITED_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_AUGUST_2024.pdf

I calculated a book value of N 7.75 for Ellah Lakes. It looks so good.
Abeg please can someone double check. Perhaps I made an error.

I don't want to compare with PRESSCO or OKOMU book value yet till I get a cross-check

rmx:
2.90

people should do there DD .

So he keyed in sharp sharp .

Princkez:
ELLAHLAKES and our audio plantation....we are @ km #4

Aah, I wanted to further top up my Afolabi units by selling a little FBNH again today. What to do now?

Most likely companies like this excelsior shipping would have taken up the opportunity this CBN capital raise exercise presented to buy banks like FCMB and the others for cheap. Retail investors look hesitant picking up the undervalued shares of the banks .

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/FMN_-_PRESS_RELEASE_ON_SCHEME_OF_ARRANGEMENT.pdf

crownprince2017:
I bought 350k units when there was massive dumping sometimes this year at 2.86.
The goodies in ellahlakes is not known to many, they will scrambled for it at 150 in two years time..just watch out with alot of patience. someone even named me their agent, no problem, they will soon come with fundamentals after he don't fly finish just like they are doing in presco now.

Buffet said accounting number is one of the beginning to value a company and not everything.

Even in a sophisticated economy like USA, numbers still get cooked and investors got duped.

I have already share my thoughts on Oil Rivers

As you quote Buffet let me refer to Peter Lynch also. In my own words, his view is that essoteric calculations are not needed for spotting the 5, 10, 50 & 100 baggers, but by just observation and awareness of companies around one and to see what's cooking in them and what prospects lie ahead.

To me Nigeria has a huge un-tapped oil rivers from Ondo to Calabar.