₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
Do you have idea what made up the expenses. If the expenses is not waste then no problem.



Like what I said in the past.If they had shown the farm size occupying the palm trees since they are already harvesting maginal fruit. And structure on ground to transform fruit to palm oil instead of paparazzi. It would have made better sense

No idea of what made up the expenses. It should be normal expenses to keep a business going. Pay fat cats at the top and the general workforce including security personnel. Pay for electricity etc.

unite4real:
Their strategy maybe quite different from Presco and Okomu.

OS is around 3B units and its likely they will do another round of recapitalization to raise fund. OS might hit 10B few years from now.

I sense a likely recapitalization may be needed to buy equipment if they want to get better margins like PRESCO & OKOMU. And perhaps a reason to push the price up and match it with some positive earnings in 2024/2025
They need to get market not to under-price the worth of the business.

Streetinvestor2:
No wahala. Thr is positive things in the results. I had expected that to show positive in retained earnings or flat but not going further south. The audited result will show more true colour. I hope they are not copying flour mill kind of yeye results. Top will be fantastic but bottom will be nothing to appreciate

They have drained their earnings to negative through expenses. It can only turn positive till they have new earnings.

chimex38:
Shey na Equity/OS?
Then, it seems you are right on BV per Share.

Thanks. Questions now is validity of the Revaluation Surplus estimate of ₦15b and if there are other shares apart from the 2,753,786,788 ordinary shares that may show up as a result of stock split or whatever other things not yet recorded.

Streetinvestor2:
ok BV in the positive based on asset/liability. Why is the retained earnings still heading south

ositadima1:
Why is the total equity heading north for a company that is not generating revenue? Even before the right issue.

Asset in the Oil Palm Agric business even has a way of creeping up as seen from historical records of PRESCO that I followed.
The book value I calculated is based on 2,753,786,788 ordinary shares@ ₦0.50 each.
Questions I see are solidity of the Revaluation Surplus estimate of ₦15b and if there are other shares apart from the 2,753,786,788 ordinary shares that may show up as a result of stock split or whatever.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42078_ELLAH_LAKES_PLC.-ELLAH_LAKES_PLC-PRESS_RELEASE_ON_Q4_UNAUDITED_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_AUGUST_2024.pdf

I calculated a book value of N 7.75 for Ellah Lakes. It looks so good.
Abeg please can someone double check. Perhaps I made an error.

I don't want to compare with PRESSCO or OKOMU book value yet till I get a cross-check

rmx:
2.90

people should do there DD .

So he keyed in sharp sharp .

Princkez:
ELLAHLAKES and our audio plantation....we are @ km #4

Aah, I wanted to further top up my Afolabi units by selling a little FBNH again today. What to do now?

Most likely companies like this excelsior shipping would have taken up the opportunity this CBN capital raise exercise presented to buy banks like FCMB and the others for cheap. Retail investors look hesitant picking up the undervalued shares of the banks .

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/FMN_-_PRESS_RELEASE_ON_SCHEME_OF_ARRANGEMENT.pdf

crownprince2017:
I bought 350k units when there was massive dumping sometimes this year at 2.86.
The goodies in ellahlakes is not known to many, they will scrambled for it at 150 in two years time..just watch out with alot of patience. someone even named me their agent, no problem, they will soon come with fundamentals after he don't fly finish just like they are doing in presco now.

Buffet said accounting number is one of the beginning to value a company and not everything.

Even in a sophisticated economy like USA, numbers still get cooked and investors got duped.

I have already share my thoughts on Oil Rivers

As you quote Buffet let me refer to Peter Lynch also. In my own words, his view is that essoteric calculations are not needed for spotting the 5, 10, 50 & 100 baggers, but by just observation and awareness of companies around one and to see what's cooking in them and what prospects lie ahead.

To me Nigeria has a huge un-tapped oil rivers from Ondo to Calabar.

Streetinvestor2:
Elleh lake must go up by fire by thunder. I am waiting till berekete family will announce it or nse will ring the opening bell at the farm..lol

Offer side loading tomorrow

I saw it in Transcorp buying at +/- N1.00 with traders and what looks like MH upandan. But today Transcorp has left the N1.00 territory.

I am selecting Ellah lakes based on the fact that from Ondo state to Cross Rivers state is a fertile land that has huge comparative advantage for Palm Oil. Infact when the British called PH, "Oil Rivers", they were referring to Palm Oil rivers (not crude oil as some may erroneously think). PRESCO and OKOMU have demonstrated how great Palm Oil is under good company management. Also the Western region in the days of Pa Awolowo planted the biggest Oil Palm plantation at Okitipupa in current Ondo state. And it was listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange till kleptomaniac management ruined the whole set-up. With Good management Palm Oil is gooooood. I pray Ellah lakes takes off this time.

Streetinvestor2:
Elleh lake must go up by fire by thunder. I am waiting till berekete family will announce it or nse will ring the opening bell at the farm..lol

Offer side loading tomorrow

I don take small seat. They must repeat the PRESCO feat over time if they have good management as they are in an area of local comparative advantage. Also I looked at the price range over a period it looks stable under N4. I hope they did not give bonus that makes the historical price range erroneous

Princkez:
better buy now ooo b4 it gets to #10, I Don talk my finish.

I have gotten some Afolabi units

crownprince2017:
So when people sell to a willing buyer it's termed dumping.

An healthy market is where there is buyer and sellers because everyone placed different value on their assets na.
You only see healthy market with only buyer?

Looks like dumping because my bid of a couple of hundred thousand was filled in one go fiam without breaking it into smaller pieces. It may also be that one is just lucky a big sale is ongoing. And once it's finished, it's finished.

megawealth01:

Looks like someone is dumping the Ellah Lakes strategically. The price rise may soon stall.

megawealth01:
I bought based on tribal sentiment oooooo

Na only IB I still dey hold wey no dey pay shishi

Will grab a seat on Ellah Lakes bus.
Selection Criteria - Support entrepreneurial ventures that exploit the green revolution comparative advantages of the States and Nation. That's how I selected PRESCO in 2006. And it has been rewarding due to the excellent management of PRESCO.
It's as if the Ellah was dumped
Let's see how it goes

megawealth01:
Fidelity my ANAMBRA project. If they pay #1 eh my joy will be out of this world.

Imagine them paying me close to what I used in buying each unit back then

I have always known that fidelity will make me proud

The bank is good

To buy strategically cheaply one cannot rely on FA but on what flags sef

ndept:
watch out for the banking stocks. Seems the bull is rehearsing to take off.

UBA climbing up small small too. It needs to find its way to 30+

BabsO2:
I am naturally disposed to farming. Perhaps I may struggle to enter the moving bus to catch the seat of anyone disembarking and get some Afolabi units at a max of N3.9

Chai full bid no one disembarking again. Rushers have grabbed the seats of those that disembarked. Safe journey. Let's see when traders will start disembarking.

See one 200,000 units offer that just came up at N3.71. Buyers have started mopping it quickly. It's gone within 2 mins. Chai.

See another 764,500 units that just came up. Chai no cash in trading account. Before I turn around with cash it could be gone Gone within 2 minutes also.

defebe:
Fidelity and FCMB

Perhaps Fidelity has strategic investor(s) that believes in the management and is accumulating the shares. FCMB may be playing catch up with Fidelity or got strategic investor(s) too.

mails4funshi:
https://businessday.ng/interview/article/nigeria-needs-public-private-partnerships-to-drive-food-security-attueyi-chairman-ellah-lakes-plc-2/?utm_source=auto-read-also&utm_medium=web

I am naturally disposed to farming. Perhaps I may struggle to enter the moving bus to catch the seat of anyone disembarking and get some Afolabi units at a max of N3.9

crownprince2017:
https://www.operanewsapp.com/ng/en/share/detail?news_id=e55d481ed2181a366aa21f2e1c47caf9&news_entry_id=63585e90240922en_ng&open_type=transcoded&from=news&request_id=share_request&share_from

And Ellah Lakes kicked off with 10% on the next trading day. Missed out on this. And it is one the stocks that got a lot of attention on NSMPA. Wish those on board a safe journey. Nigeria needs a lot of entrepreneurial ventures to unlock its comparative advantages and unleash its potential.

Though UBA is currently more underpriced than Zenith or GTCO, its CBN mandated capital raise need to be priced closer to Zenith for several reasons.

In 2007 the public offer prices for the banks were
UBA N35.00 (rights was N34)
Zenith N38.90 (rights was N36.90)
FB N33.00 (rights was N31)
ACCESS N14.90
Fidelity N8:00
FCMB N14:00

2023 FY and 2024Q1 Book Values per share
UBA N57.37 & N73.81
Zenith N73.95 & N90.61
FB N47.88 & N52.53
ACCESS N42.34 & N **(looks lower than many quote)
Fidelity N13.67 & N14.6
FCMB N19.4 & N 22.62

Looking at earnings per share UBA, Access, Zenith and GTCO are competing strongly with Zenith in the lead and UBA attempting to drag position with GTCO. But I guess investors will place premiums on consistent dividend payout and growth. Zenith and GTCO are leading here.

Agbalowomeri:
Good job baby girl
However, you can hardly get any naija bank selling above PBV > 0.5

However, maybe we will get a new ololo trend this time.

emmanuelewumi:
It is possible to have a PBV of over 0.5 in Nigeria.

Price Book Value is determined by the Return on Equity, sustainable earning growth of the bank and the discount rate or minimum required return.

Just that the return on equity for Access will be about 19% , compared to 35% for Zenith based on their H1 and assuming that will be repeated in H2.

ROE of 19% by Access is less than my minimum required return of 20%

GTCO has the best PBV. It was above 1 for over a decade, until 2021 when it dropped to 0.9. Its lowest full year audited was in 2022 at 0.74

Zenith dropped below 1 since 2015 and currently hovers around 0.5 on full year numbers. If price doesn't go up from current values even with the current capital raise Zenith PBV may fall below 0.5 suggesting it is currently further under-priced in the market compared to the last couple of years.

UBA dropped below 1 since 2011 and even below 0.5 by 2015 and has struggled to climb above 0.5 - UBA needs to ramp up dividends payment to get better pricing before its capital raise to match its increasing book values per share. As it has achieved the greatest rise in book values per common shares listed on the NGX amongst the banks.

ojeysky:
Well historically UBA/access dividend does not match or come close to zenith/gtco. Stanbic have also always paid higher dividend than zenith/gtco. Even though Stanbic is the last in FUGAS Na their Oga

UBA caught up with Zenith/GTCO in last year interim dividend payment. The three paid 50 kobo interim dividend last year. Let's see if UBA can resist being left behind by Zenith/GTCO in interim dividend payment this year.

crownprince2017:
You can't compare Africa continent to other part of developed world where they have great alternative sources of energy. In Africa which remains a strong hold of dangote, we are still going to be relying on fossil fuel for atleast another 15-20 years which is a good PBP for dangrefinery.

Agree. Africa will need petrol for a long time. Another plus for the refinery is it has other products apart from fuels that will remain in demand for Africa and the rest of the world. What's the list of the other products apart from fuels sef?

pluto09:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinese-Refineries-Go-Bankrupt-Amid-Plummeting-Margins.html

So those listing Dangote Refinery on NGX will likely harvest their profits quickly. Buying on NGX may not be that attractive.

BabsO2:
No matter the argument FCF is between N100b & N200b

Lenders are enjoying this FCF from Uche Oluwasegun and very soon Shareholders will start their offtakes (Dividends)

emmanuelewumi:
Using unaudited result will be misleading. Wait till he resolves the argument he is having with his auditors, accountants and tax professionals

No matter the argument FCF is between N100b & N200b

emmanuelewumi:
Uche business is not up to this size na.

Is this an audited report?

Uche's business is MEGA
Unaudited 2023.

I even understated the FCF it is approaching $170b sef

emmanuelewumi:
I will advise you to study his accounts again, he doesn't have free cash flow, working capital is in negative same with solvency state

Not used to calculating free cash flow. I understand the concept. Look at the cashflow statement. Oando had a neat positive FCF in 2023 unaudited of N105 billion.

Please can those used to FCF calculations please cross-check.

emmanuelewumi:
Uche is now born again, he got gonorrhea from one of his side chicks.. Since he got cured few months ago, he is now sober apart from that he is now in his 50s and has decided to get closer to God.

Unfortunately people are still very skeptical, let us see as events unfolds

Amen. Praise the Lord !!!!