₦airaland Forum

BullBearMkt:
What's SHF bros?

That’s too simple for you

robobo:
Too ambitious

Should be clearer in another couple of weeks.

mikeapollo:
You may be right, after all.
I was only being very conservative and cautious in my expectations of Oando's performance in 2024.

I read a report on the 2023 results stating that its oil exploration and production activity constituted only 4% of total revenue, but contributed 53% of operating profit and 41% of pre-tax profit, indicating very high margins.
If this trend is sustained or improved on, then the ENI assets (which fall under production) could make very huge impact for Oando, starting from Q3 2024

If SHF remains negative in 2024 it means wahala. Price may start going down or never shoot above 100

mikeapollo:
Oando's shareholders fund position can only improve a bit; I doubt if it would turn to positive with the 2024 results. May be in 2025 or 2026

Oando had a negative SHF of N214b in unaudited 2023 from a priot year negative SHF of N183b. Its rate of depletion of shareholder funds decelerated in 2023. The depletion of shareholder funds started in 2019 with a huge acceleration.

Looking at SEPLAT. Its shareholder funds increased in 2023 by N800b

Oando should be able to get a positive SHF in 2024 mid year assuming its unaudited 2023 is not restated. This is premised on SEPLAT's SHF growing by another N1000b in the first six months of 2024. Turning a negative N214b shareholder's fund to positive right now should not be a beggie for OANDO. Otherwise it has very very very serious issues.

Yemy3m:
Oando still in debt but income near double.
Result out soon.
Dnt sell.

Is the shareholders funds now positive.

Someone asked about the domestic dollar bond. It was over-subscribed.

The federal government had on Wednesday announced the raise of over $900m from its debut $500m domestic dollar-bond offer that closed last month, August 30,2024, with an interest rate of 9.75 percent per annum for 5 years.

The relatively high coupon, set at a spread of +600 basis points over US Treasuries, seems to have attracted both retail and institutional investors.

The minister noted that the successful issuance underscores the government’s commitment to diversifying its sources of funding and bolstering economic growth despite current economic challenges.

The funds raised from this bond issuance are set to be channeled into critical infrastructure projects and development programs that will bolster Nigeria’s economic growth.

According to Edun, the forthcoming listing of the dollar-denominated bond on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and FMDQ Securities Exchange will position Nigeria as a key player in deepening its capital markets and promoting financial inclusion.
https://businessday.ng/news/article/naira-rallies-on-record-domestic-dollar-bond/

Bloomberg noted that the bond sale played a significant role in boosting investor sentiment, contributing to the naira’s recent strength against the dollar.
https://punchng.com/naira-surged-by-4-8-after-domestic-dollar-bond-sale/

yMcy56:
He's actually planning that....
He said this in a press briefings with The Nations on September 11, 2024......and we say AMEN to that....

Link posted here earlier.....

https://thenationonlineng.net/japaul-set-to-unlock-1-6b-gold-bank-amid-recapitalisation/

Thanks for this. Jegede's plan to pay dividends without ceasing is a powerful one. But Japaul is a little pricey and risky now for new purchases in the market. Tempted to average up. Best not to sell instead, even if the price swings up should it swing up as it is looking good for long term investment.

cocolacec:
fbnh on full bid.

Let's see if it can test N40 again.

chimex38:
No single African

Perhaps due to no indigenous writing we don't have, "preserved records" of how the things we achieved came to be. Like the gold works in Ghana that the British took away as it was state of the art back then. Or the Benin bronze works that the British also took. And many other things that are of African origin like immunization that the West got from an African immigrant in America centuries ago.

godlyguy:
Dreams in investments. Africa end dreams plus religion

Please the dreamers should help Nigeria out of this mess

Meta AI response

Several inventions and discoveries have been attributed to dreams:

1. Penicillin: Alexander Fleming's dream led him to discover penicillin in 1928. He dreamed of bacteria being destroyed by a mold, which inspired him to experiment and discover the antibiotic properties of penicillin.

2. Periodic Table: Dmitri Mendeleev's dream helped him finalize the periodic table of elements in 1869. He reportedly saw the elements arranged in a logical order in his dream.

3. Telephone: Elias Howe's dream inspired him to invent the first practical sewing machine in 1845. He dreamed of being taken captive by a group of natives who were dancing around him with spears that had holes in the tips, which led him to design the needle with an eye at the point.

4. Theory of Relativity: Albert Einstein's dreams and thought experiments contributed to his development of the theory of relativity, although he didn't directly attribute it to a single dream.

5. Paul McCartney's "Yesterday": The melody for the Beatles' hit song "Yesterday" came to Paul McCartney in a dream in 1965.

6. Mary Shelley's "Frankenstein": Mary Shelley's dream inspired her to write the classic novel "Frankenstein" in 1816.

7. Elias Howe's Sewing Machine: Howe's dream, mentioned earlier, also helped him design the first practical sewing machine.

8. Niels Bohr's Atomic Model: Niels Bohr's dream led him to propose the planetary model of the atom in 1913.

9. Robert Louis Stevenson's "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde": Stevenson's dream inspired him to write the classic novel "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" in 1886.

10. Srinivasa Ramanujan's Math Formulas: The Indian mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujan claimed that his dreams often revealed mathematical formulas and insights.

While dreams can inspire creativity and problem-solving, it's essential to note that hard work, dedication, and expertise are also crucial for turning dream-inspired ideas into reality.

ololufemi:
These banks are minting money o! 🤑 💸 💰 🏦 🏧

Seeing that GT Bank PLC's result, I am not surprised because for every currency note deposited into the banking system, these banks use a significantly high percentage of it to create money in the economic system through lending, credit or investment systems.

A sizeable chunk of the unrealized gains is due to naira devaluation against the dollar and other international currencies. To the bank investor that's good. For many other companies with sizeable physical assets their book values may be understated as the cost of replacement of those assets has gone up significantly due to naira devaluation. However, for such companies it's better they are making some profits. The book value (net assets) of banks is relatively up to date while that of manufacturing companies in these periods of massive devaluation are more likely to be understated. Hence banks can get price to book less than one. While manufaturing businesses will have theirs far above one. May not be worth putting too much weight on price to book in this naira deprecation cycle.

Profit from operations is far more important!!! than unrealized gains (from more valuable assets) due to a reporting currency that is losing purchasing power relative to those assets.

Mpeace:
Forget about that minister. See what he said about seplat deal. Target of 600,000 bbls per day

That means Seplat has far more production capacity & assets than Oando.

KarlTom:
I was also shocked with the trade volume.
Maybe it's a 'final day' rush.
I doubt we'll have such volume again anytime soon...

Looks more like final day dump by sellers and defense by strategic buyer to prevent price falling below offer price. What could be causing the sell pressure ?

KarlTom:
Countries are making the gradual transition to renewables and I believe that they should be commended AND emulated.

Nigeria 'lost' about 20years due to non refining.

One of the major reason these IOCs are ditching their assets is a transition to renewables

I don't think we should take this 'news' as a pinch of salt because, at the end of the day, they are our buyers...

I did a SEPLAT analytical review for adult night school assignment nearly a decade ago when the price was under N200 and I rated it a Strong Buy. But to buy then in market I refused due to the erroneous thought oil is going and the future is renewables. Global warming bla bla. What a big mistake

Ginalex:
UBA want us to offer pink alligator as sacrifice before they release their half year results and interim dividend payout. But my mind dey tell me say na 50kobo them go still pay

I bet it will be around N1 otherwise they won’t get a good market supported price for their CBN mandated re capitalization.

2zona:
But investors will be more concerned about PAT and EPS than assets to decide which way to go.

True.
But by the time future PAT and EPS are well established in print, the market will price them in and massive price appreciation will be muted to steady gradual rise.

2zona:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLjbWIZ9YU0?si=aqF5qcpcrsElIoCA

Nice video. Like the closing which highlights Oando’s focus to deliver value to shareholders.

Thinking:
Looking ahead to upcoming AFS, Oando will likely report more assets than Seplat will report above the N3T assets they both reported for last year. Hence my earlier valuation for Oando based relatively on assets may be understated

Payunsin:
My Oando I sold on Tuesday, dem never credit me ooo
Habi EFCC dey investigate where I see that kin money?

Maybe Capital gains Tax need to be deducted for the gains above N200m that is being cashed out.
They will want capital gains tax but will not give capital loss refund from Tax purse to investors who lose capital.
Abi how does the capital gains tax kick-in or work?

BabsO2:
OANDO jet cruising at full throttle. Now at full bid, mopping of offers taking place at N81.40 a perfect 10% on yesterday's N74.
N1b traded so far at this minute.

GeeKudi:
I am so pained I couldn't get more yesterday.

Looks like sellers are eyeing a 3 digit price. Will the strategic buyer(s) buy above N99.99 next week or stick to buying at a max of about N90

OANDO jet cruising at full throttle. Now at full bid, mopping of offers taking place at N81.40 a perfect 10% on yesterday's N74.
N1b traded so far at this minute.

ProphetUtuocha:
Those who had sought should make haste to get now
For soon, vey soon, another great wind shall come
And they shall seek and shall not get

The N7 payout now out of view .
Oando has not chopped money when compared to FBNH or Transcorp.
In 2023 the following amounts changed hands in FBNH/Transcorp/Oando respectively NGN(b) 165/44/20
In 2024 by close of business yesterday only NGN(b) 110/82/57 has changed hands respectively.

There should still be enough fuel for the wind. It's all up to the strategic buyer(s)

NB:
Not a Sell or Buy recommendation. Prices may go further up or down. An observation is just shared concerning the fuel for the jet engines and the great wind (mechanical thrust) from the turbine engines. It's the call of the strategic Oando buyer(s) if the price will go further up or down in the short term of weeks / couple of months. And it's a positive Net shareholders funds and good earnings that will sustain the engines in the months ahead.

KarlTom:
We eagerly look forward to more positive CORPORATE ACTIONS this September...

NGN Dividend Action please. That's a desirable positive action from OANDO before the year runs out.

And a quarterly financial statement with net positive assets for those asking for net Assets to get a belated one for their valuation computations is desirable.

Not a sell or buy recommendation. Oando price may go down or up. Please do your DD

mikeapollo:
Yes, that is what gives superior returns and higher value to shareholders of Seplat.
My comparison is not based on the bottom line, but the top lines e.g. oil reserves, barrels of oil produced, turnover, number of OML/OPL etc.
In terms of bottom line, Seplat has been more profitable, has fewer number of shares, pays dividend consistently and has a more stable management.

I clicked send while still typing. I was trying to complete as follows

Long term Oando should be looking at N177 assuming SEPLAT price remain flat long term ay N3730.

Looking at number of shares, SEPLAT has 588 million shares while OANDO 12,431 million shares. That is for every 1 SEPLAT share there are 21 Oando shares. If one assumes they are roughly the same in Assets since they both had total assets of N3T in their 2023 financials. And assuming shareholders start benefitting at par from Assets in both companies. Oando price can be estimated to be SEPLAT share price divided by 21 based on these simple numbers & assumptions. At todays SEPLAT price of N3730 Oando's bench price goal is approximately N177

mikeapollo:
The issues that pulled back Oando were the various boardroom squabbles, shareholders and SEC issues.
Right now, in terms of the industry, oil reserves and productive assets, Seplat and Oando are virtually contemporaries .
Don't be surprised to see Oando going for four figures like Seplat, in the long term.

Long term Oando should be looking at N177 assuming SEPLAT price remain flat long term ay N3730.

Looking at number of shares, SEPLAT has 588 million shares while OANDO 12,431 million shares. That is for every 1 SEPLAT share there are 21 Oando shares. If one assumes they are roughly the same in Assets since they both had total assets of N3T in their 2023 financials. And assuming shareholders start benefitting at par from Assets in both companies. Oando price can be estimated to be SEPLAT share price divided by 21 based on these simple numbers & assumptions. At todays SEPLAT price of N3730 Oando's bench price goal is approximately N177

ositadima1:
I downloaded it and reviewed it that day, but I didn’t see where the revenue from Nigerian operations was stated. Ok, aside from that, you might be thinking their focus on green energy explains the sale, but it still doesn’t justify selling so cheaply if it’s worth more.

Hopefully, Oando will manage it better than the Italians, but that remains to be seen.

I guess most of them are selling because of reducing margins and the increasing peculiar challenges of Nigerian onshore operations. Local operators have reduced cost of operations with lower wages and far fewer expatriates. And are devising various means round the operational challenges.

.

zendi:
Oando cannot command the same sentiments in South Africa as in Nigeria because South Africans do not know crude oil as we do.
Is there anybody here who cannot point at one billionaire or more from his State who are rumored to have made it through the "lifting of crude oil" ?
Nigeria is a petro-dollar nation, SA is not, to my awareness. So many Nigerians who have grown tired of dreaming of laying hand on NNPC Term Contract to market crude oil, let alone grabbing an oil block, are seizing opportunity to snap up the shares of Oando while it's still affordable.
The South Africans, meanwhile, are probably disecting Oando through Ewumi-style forensic analysis and, seeing no dividends in the near term, are valueing it accordingly.

When Oando shall start dishing out dividends, it may be highly profitable for dividend hunters to to go and load it that place because I believe the payouts will be the same in currency equivalence giving that the buy out proposal for the attempted Delisting was the same 7.07 or equivalent.

It will be good to know the traded volume in JSE. Perhaps insignificant volumes. Which means big holders are not selling but watching. But perhaps a few holders for whatever reasons dispose as the need arises.

The picture from investing.com shows when thousands get traded in JSE when trades occur on a weekly basis if they occur. Millions change hands in NSE

Capitas7:
Fair one!
But I don't think someone who bought shares at $25 a few decades ago and still holds when valued at $600k would see 5% as satisfactory annual yield. With many 50-200 baggers, 5% won't be motivation to pile cash up. Moreover, many of the stocks that are giving us latecomers 1-4% dividends are probably returning 50% dividends on cost price for him. But that said, the rates on high yield savings or CD's are quite negotiable when your principal falls in certain brackets.

50-200 baggers .
Which stocks delivered that ?

Raider76:
Please what's causing this bull beyond Oando?

Perhaps the GDP numbers that came out is seen as a green shoot of better things to come.
Perhaps interest rates have peaked and are going down.

MARKETJJC:
OANDO =$1

On 11 March 2008 Oando closing price reached an all time high of N280. That's more than 16 years ago. The few that bought at that price and still holding will be grateful to see a turnaround to a $1 valuation in the next couple of years. Likewise every other person inside the party.

Not a buy recommendation. Just a discuss. DYOR

Bagwa:
Oando Bid depth 48M

This two digit price no fit OANDO. Make them do make OANDO 3 digit stock quick quick quick.

jonnysessy:
Banks Interim dividend
When would CBN allow interim paying banks to release their results. I believe this would be a booster for banking recapitalization. But, the delay is too much now. The market needs news to spur it to greater height.

They better start releasing results (with good dividend payment action) in this last week of August.
They also need to start bringing interest rates on government bonds down to support businesses currently struggling from high finance cost. So that the economy (& stock market) can witness a boost from September and for the rest of the year.