₦airaland Forum

Tonyjon, thank you for reaching out to CSCS office. Thus THE NUMERIC CSCS # IS THE RIGHT ONE TO USE.

It also tallies with what I gathered from 3 out of the 4 Brokers I contacted.

This will be proved right very soon as I am looking out for my First Bank PO to be credited direct to CSCS account number with broker. I believe this should be within the next 2 weeks.

Thanks to all for the contributions.

I wonder who was buying heavily last week and this week pushing the price up before it went flat yesterday and changed direction. I will like to know what is happening.
The people who but the public offer should be given double certificate for their faith.

tundetire thanks for the cheering info. I pray they succeed and they get listed on time.

walcolm that will happen if you address changes or their is a slight change in your name or you use a nominee service. Where my address were same, with two different brokers I was given the same alphanumeric number.

Listed where ? Definitely not NSE.
They may be verifying them shortly and they will be listed very soon on Insurance list of successful insurance companies. Amen.

Got mine from the mail box last week Thursday. Suspect a major source of delay is the mail system. Was initially worried. I could imagine how you feel.

dejacrue, I can see you advice the numeric number since the name of the broker is included in the offer form. I and some colleagues have consulted 4 different brokers namely (IBTC, NSL, CSL(FCMB), Zenith). Only 1 out of the 4 adviced us to use the alphanumeric number. Thus the confusion is still there. I wonder how the process of allotment works for crediting to CSCS.

I also don't think there has been any direct crediting to subscribers CSCS account to any stockbroker since the avalanche of offers. When it starts we'll know or be adviced on which one is the better to use as it creates less work for the registrars in alloting the shares to subcribers via their broker.

Lagos Underground Opens 01/01/2010. It runs all the way from Lekki to Ikorodu, Toll Gate, and Babadgry. Traffic congestion in Lagos now history. Special Service Connects Olokola now renamed Babs_O City.

Thousands of US/UK/Canadian Nigerians on long queues to revalidate their Nigerian Citizenships in other to Return Home where GDP now stands at USD 500,000 per annum.

Thanks to Babs_O Founder of the Babs_O Group.
Owners of the new Babs_O steel, Babs_O Oil and Gas and the Rebuya of Olokola the newest most developed mega city in the World.

easimoni. Thanks to wema too bought @ N3.5 and in less than a year it is worth N15. Fantastic!!!. It covers my losses in Conoil in which I though I bought at a discount at N 72 and is worth N59 now. I could be off to US disney next holiday season after all the traffic jams and blackouts here in Nija when I take profit. Thus it really looks like a waste of time looking for a US / UK stockbroker for now.

Hispy99
Please what is your experience on US stock trading. Is it worth it or NSE is the place to be right now and US stocks is a waste of time. Tots / eperience on this please.

Larger 20

Is this topic still on.

We need a MITTAL steel venture capitalist in Nigeria.

Let me know And I will explain further why you should come to Olokola and Operate side by side with OK LNG.

Crownvilla thanks for the insight shared. I spoke to a colleague who trades in his home country exchange in the Hague and he says his capital appreciation on average with his stocks are on average 10% per annum and dividend are not too bad at 3 t 4%.

I also read on how guys are hitting it big on the indian stock exchanges with money pouring in from non resident indians. Even I have tracked their mutual funds and seen crazy returns.

I have no doubts that NSE is a place to be right now for steady + 40% gains in dollar terms per annum even with wide pick of stocks. And the hard guys who invest more time will even achieve more. With good government the trend could continue for the next decade none stop. Especially as the Banks start growing the economy by funding both small and big ticket projects and when Soludo's AFC takes full footing in leveraging Nigerian Banks to finance viable projects freely in Sub-saharan africa. Plus our insurance companies taking up insuring bigger risks like Oil and Gas.

I think for now the London / US / European Stock exchanges are on a high and may drop over the next three years or stay flat. That is why I closed my mutual funds after achieving about 25% growth (£/Euro terms) and 50% growth dollar terms in the last 5 Years. (i.e. after initially suffering excruciating losses in 2003). NSE gave me about 500% in dollar terms in the same period!

Nice to hear any more insights or forecasts.

wanaj0 please can you give me a simple meaning of PEG and how it can be determined. And any experience with foreign stocks.

Don't be confused. Looking at CNN website I see some very good PE's (between 10 and 18) quoted for some popular American companies and I wonder how bullish NSE is on some banks with PE's even above 50. It's all about diversifying if one can and still grow.

It will be nice to hear some real experience on the market out there in US/UK etc.
Is it worth it even for the sake of diversifying.

Pheemyhan, It is good to be informed, that is why I am seeking those having UK/US/Canadian stock trading experience. Worked briefly on assignment abroad before and that it's the money I plan to use. I know the money I brought back to Nigerian Stocks against advice from friends has really yeilded excellent fruits. But I never tried foreign stocks but extremely useless mutual funds which I have since closed.

Anyone with stock trading experience UK/US/Canada/??
Is it worth it or a waste of time?

Does any one have experience of stock trading in Nigeria as well as any other foreign Stock exchange like London Stock Exchange or US Stock Exchange etc.

Do you think there is any advantage in having a foreign stock broking account for someone resident in Nigeria. ?
What are this advantages. ? Better PE's ? Dividend's? Growth ?
Which stock broking firms are available for Non Resident Nigerians in UK, US or Canada ?
What websites are available. ? [Made some searches and wasted a lot of time e.g. Nathwest Stockbrokers look good but the costs of trading and funding account looks high]

I will be grateful for useful clues to help me make a decision. And perhaps some others will find the info useful.

Iyke thanks. I have used the two on different occasions. I will watch out to see the one that will end up being credited directly to my CSCS account.

Has anyone got a public offer credited to CSCS directly before. Please share your experience. Which CSCS number did you use.

Money4you, FCMB closed today and it is reported they will not be extending as they are already fully subscribed. We will watch if the price will stay flat or drop after the suspension is lifted. With a projected Price to Book of 2.0 or less after allocation there is room for growth but it will not be phenomenal. I think the time for such rises may be coming to an end. I forecast a Price between N21 & N28 by end 2008.

On Zenith I'm not bullish as there could be too many people from past offers who may be waiting to take profit and this may affect the Share Price rise. However it looks attractive and I am still looking out for analyst reviews. The only annoying part is I will only be able to buy very few shares with todays prices. And this may make me snob the offer.

I will hold on to my Union Bank for 2 reasons. It has a large Asset base and the Price to Book is still very low compared to many other Banks. The second reason is speculation of a foreign investor wanting to come on Board. Also with better management the Bank can make better use of its assets.

Please can someone help me out. What is the correct CSCS number to use on Public Offer forms. I have been confused by brokers. Most say it's the purely numeric one and some say it's the alpha numeric one.

Also will either still work. Has anyone got experience on this.

Na wa O The amount they want to pay for dividend is too low. Does not look too good based on this. However if they will be used for bagging cement this prospectus statement must be underestimate. Also them no quote their current asset in prospectus. Haba them dey hide something?

Money4you, FCMB should be good. My assessment is based on current PE and Projected PE. On the comment parting with cash, its just opportunity cost. I can save N 140 k for future or use it on a trip to Dubai or buy something I can see now and enjoy it right away.

I will place a buy on FCMB based on PE's. Though its difficult parting with cash but without investing and worrying only of losses no profit can be made.

Looks like a good buy as it is 80% fully underwritten by Zenith according to the news media. Have you got an on line link to the prospectus.

Akenmi,

Take Bagco IPO that just opened Zenith has underwritten 80% of it on a firm committment basis. The IPO will be used to fund outstanding loans of Bagco says the dailies. Some Banks will definitely end up funding big projects that will become successful. First Bank Funded Obajana Cement. Some banks may end up coasting. However the main determinant on their success is good government and rule of law. I like your quote on you don't plant corn when it is required to be eaten but long before that.

They are going to the market to mop up more funds for the long haul to a developed Sub Saharan Economy. They need to devise ways of mopping more and more including the one you not yet earned in order for Nigerian Banks to get to the same footing with regards to share holder funds like their South African counterparts. Also they need it if the good dream of Soludo with respect to the AFC (Africa Finance Corporation) is to make impact in bridging the Funding Gap for developing the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa. Take Lagos State the Punch published on line that investing N2 in Lagos mass transport can yield N1 every year. If Nigerian Banks are big there is lots of Money to be made. Zenith is the fastest in the race at the moment with its third fund raising trip.

Keep them. Move on to something else and check them back in 6 months. I am more confident Lasaco may double if the issurance industry court injuctions end and the final list of new capitalised insurance companies is released. Transcorp is still a hot bet. You could loose everything. Or have ten fold in a couple of years. Your decision on this depends or how long you are ready to invest and if you are ready to loose everything or gain 10 fold.

The statistics is not too bad for a BUY.

The only annoying bit is I will be able to buy fewer shares now than those who bought earlier.

Nigerian banks have not capitalised enough. The funding Gap required by Sub-saharan Africa in order to transform to a developed Economy is huge. I wish the money can be raised internally (i.e. Nigerians and African Home and Abroad) as against foriegn funds who may have no genuine faith in growing us. But merely speculating on the bull run of our growth. The only caveat is Bad Government and Curruption in both Government and the Private sector just as the fulsification of records by Cadbury may make projected growth stunted. The best edge is to spread the bet.

Take the Lagos Megacity project quoted earlier by @ btayo1 the investment opportunity is there.

Further insight can also be picked up by going through this article from the banker

==============
* Supplements » Africa » Nigeria: Great Expectations

Published:
02 April, 2007

Chukwuma Soludo: expects debt ratio upgrade

Chukwuma Soludo, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, tells James Eedes of a bold plan to raise $1bn for his brainchild – the Africa Financing Corporation.

One thing you would not accuse Chukwuma Soludo of is lacking momentum. The governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has energetically stuck to his economic reform agenda when others in government and the private sector have retreated to the sidelines ahead of the country’s April 21 election.

Most recently, Mr Soludo was in London and New York drumming up interest in his latest brainchild, the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC). In characteristically bullish manner, the governor was seeking seed capital for the institution from international investors despite there being no management team in place.

It would not be the first time Mr Soludo has confounded the sceptics – the governor famously overcame staunch resistance to his plan to restructure the Nigerian banking sector, despite serious doubts he would meet his own unlikely 18-month deadline. Ahead of elections in which no-one is betting on a winner, there are few who do not worry what the outcome holds for the country and the momentum of reform.

Speaking to The Banker in London, Mr Soludo [size=8pt]dismisses such fears[/size], insisting the direction of reform will not change. “The economy has the capacity to sustain growth of more than 10% in the medium term,” he says, citing Nigeria’s improving business environment, abundant natural resources, large tracts of uncultivated agricultural land, and the increasing interest in the country being shown by the estimated 17 million Nigerians living abroad.

Authorities estimate the economy grew at 5.6% in 2006. Although slower than the year before, the underlying structure of growth is healthy: oil sector output shrank by 4.7%, owing to unrest in the important oil producing Niger Delta, but the non-oil sectors grew by 8.9%.

With steady improvement in a number of performance indicators, Mr Soludo also expects an upgrade to the country’s sovereign debt ratio, currently rated BB- by Standard & Poors and Fitch.

Mr Soludo is looking to raise at least $1bn in equity to establish the AFC, a target that is being underwritten by the CBN. Already Nigerian banks have committed investment of more than $700m when the private placement was launched last month in Nigeria.


Development funding


The AFC is being billed as a private sector-owned and led regional investment bank. The business rationale for the proposed institution is the need to bridge the massive gap in funding required for the development of key economic sectors, in the process creating significant returns to investors. Its mission statement is “to be the leading international securities firm and investment bank in Africa with its leadership position defined by international investment grade rating, track record of profitability and delivery of positive returns to shareholders.”

It is envisaged the AFC will be owned by commercial banks in Africa, other institutional investors and African central banks, with a minimum of 51% of ownership held by the private sector. Within five years, the institution will be listed on one or more international stock exchange, including various regional exchanges within Africa.

Funding will be raised by means of international issuance and access to various credit lines. Significantly, legislation has been drafted to allow the CBN to make available up to 5% of the country’s external reserves – which presently equates to about $2.2bn – for lending through the AFC.

According to Mr Soludo, the AFC “will be viewed [much like] international organisations such as the International Finance Corporation, African Development Bank and South Africa’s Industrial Development Corporation”. He notes too that the institution will obtain diplomatic privileges and legal immunities such as those enjoyed by multilateral financial institutions such as the World Bank, avoiding what he describes as “tedious market entry formalities and regulatory requirements” such as application for a banking licence and listing requirements. Furthermore, the AFC will be tax-exempt at the corporate level.

It is a bold initiative, but it has raised eyebrows. In addition to launching the private offer without a management team or even a named CEO, Mr Soludo is promising a 21% return on equity by the AFC’s fifth year, a net interest margin of 48% and a profit margin of 41% – impressive performance even by international standards.

Notwithstanding obvious question marks about according a private sector-owned institution anti-competitive advantages – tax exemption, legal immunities and so forth – the AFC looks suspiciously less like a regional African investment bank and very much like a Nigerian institution, headquartered in Nigeria, underwritten by the CBN, majority-owned by Nigerian banks and probably listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Indeed, during the London road show, Mr Soludo was more inclined to talk about the exciting economic prospects in Nigeria than the rest of Africa.



Mr Soludo contends that the financing gap runs into the tens of billions of dollars, which is a clear signal that economic development needs are going unmet. Africa’s indigenous private sector investment banks mostly lack the size and, in the case of the large South African banks, the geographic coverage to effectively service the market. Left alone to market forces, it is doubtful strong, pan-African institutions would have emerged. Considering its size and economic significance (and potential), Nigeria in particular is conspicuous for its lack of muscular domestic investment banks with the necessary resources; the AFC is the consolidation of such resources under one roof.

In some ways, Mr Soludo’s widely hailed restructuring of Nigeria’s banking sector was a similarly crude intervention. However, it has proved undoubtedly successful. The 25 banks trimmed from 89 are larger and stronger and are already showing signs of playing a far more meaningful intermediary role in economic development.

“We have 25 strong and reliable banks, without one single unsound or questionable bank. It is the soundest the sector has ever been,” says Mr Soludo. “On a combined basis, these 25 banks are now the size of the first and second largest banks in South Africa. In contrast, the combined size of the 89 banks in 2003 was equivalent to the fourth largest bank in South Africa. Twenty of the 25 Nigerian banks are among the top 100 banks in Africa; 17 are in the top 40 and four are in the top 10. Whereas in 2003 Nigeria did not have a single bank among the top 1000 world banks, we now have 17.

“Growth in assets, deposits, credit and profitability since 2004 has been astounding. Performance on capital adequacy and liquidity ratios has been good and the size of non-performing loan ratios has declined significantly,” he says.

According to CBN figures, the asset base of the banking system increased 104% from N3209bn ($25bn) in June 2004 to N6555bn at end-September 2006. Capital and reserves were up 192% over the same time period to N957bn, compared with N327bn, and the industry capital adequacy ratio stood at 21.6%. Importantly, the ratio of non-performing loans was down to 9.5%, compared with 19.8% in June 2004.


Inflation busting


While Mr Soludo has gained many fans for his no-nonsense approach to reform, he is now under increasing scrutiny to see whether he can keep the Nigerian economy on an even keel. Aided by more prudent management of public expenditure, in particular cutting spending of windfall oil revenue, Nigerian inflation has slowed from high double digits to about 8%. Many argue this was the easy bit; keeping the brakes on inflation in a fast-growing economy – without jeopardising growth – will be tougher.

To this end, Mr Soludo promises “aggressive liquidity management” to counter this year’s expansionary budget, in which spending is up 21% on last year. The central bank’s monetary policy committee is likely to meet before the April elections, but Mr Soludo would not be drawn on rate movements, saying only that the bank was vigilant in countering increases in cash floating around in the economy.

His job is every bit as much about managing inflationary expectations. He is quick to point out that a potential injection of an additional $4bn in oil savings cash into the economy would be non-inflationary as they would merely fill the gap created by revenue shortfalls from oil production dropping under the 2.5 million barrels-per-day level forecast in the budget.


Investor concern


Foreign investors had applauded the 2007 budget for its prudence but now worry that a large disbursement from the excess crude oil account indicates that government is prepared to open the spending spigot ahead of elections. The excess crude oil account is savings from oil revenues above the budgeted price of $40 a barrel.

“It is not going to stoke inflation any higher than the budgeted framework,” Mr Soludo reiterates, adding: “All I’m saying is that [present] spending is only taking it up to that level. So it is not having any greater impact than the budget itself would have had.”

Asked if he thinks the government will overspend ahead of the election, Soludo replies: “No, I don’t think the government will go beyond that limit. So what is being proposed is still consistent within that particular framework, within that ceiling. So it is nothing above that. No new money.”

That said, whatever Mr Soludo’s worries ahead of elections, they may prove modest compared with difficulties managing the boom that would follow peaceful elections. If Nigeria’s reform plan remains intact, it is likely there will be a surge in investment which will need to be managed.
=========

Summary exercise caution by spreading your investments in the Banks. But not by abstaining. Also exercise caution by understanding what the banks invetsment data is like. Price to Book, Price Earnings etc.


ReIn line with comments of about Lagos Mega City Project

Think the price has grown faster than they can sustain a high dividend payment. It's good to buy shares for investments and not speculation. However if in need of cash or aggressive in building networth and careless about really investing then if you get your certificate before the price goes further down sell. PO price was N 3. Current price is N 6.78 while the peak price was N 8.2

The released result do not show any growth in PAT to support these prices. However many things do happen. I will not be surprised if the price goes up. (They may be into other businesses ?? , )

My business phone is Glo.

Why look for MTN when Mtel (Transcorp) is there ?

Me I still dey wait oh. Everytime I dey check box. Nothing. Wetin now.