₦airaland Forum

By Dec 20th onwards it should be clearer as I understand FirstBank may be the first to credit directly to CSCS accounts.

Zenith has better brand name and more established than BankPHB in current business volume. This may make it to continue growing aggressively especially since 90% of the capital to be raised by Zenith will be used for Working Capital / Project / Infrastructure Financing. Unlike Bank PHB that will be spending about 48% in such ventures. However this is the 3rd run of Zenith in the market and has already made money for branch expansion etc that BankPHB is just going for in this its first Public Offer Run. With time it is possible BankPHB will get its Brand name as strong as Zeniths.

On the current offer statistics basis, BankPHB looks better. Comparing BankPHB/Zenith
1. Forecast PE's are better. (2008, 2009, 2010 = 13.7/20, 7.9/14, 6.1/10) i.e. the offer prospectus says you will recover your investments faster in BankPHB.
2. Current Price / Book is about same. But BankPHB will have a better post offer price to book as there are less shares / market capitalisation at the moment.
3. Forecast Dividend is mixed. (2008, 2009, 2010 = 2.2/2.7%, 3.8/3.1%, 4.9/3.5%) i.e. the offer prospectus says you will get more dividend yield with BankPHB in future.

The final decision is yours.

No state is as welcoming as Lagos.

Lagos is home to a lot of manufacturing and continues to be a preferred location for new businesses because it welcomes all. It even welcomed returned slaves in the past without discrimination and they are fully integrated into the society !

It is even poised for greater things, the LEKKI Free Zone is coming up, very soon it will also be an Oil Producing State from Offshore Oil fields.

And all who chose to be associated with Lagos are welcome to join hands in making it a true center of EXCELLENCE.

Other states will soon start getting less hostile from the good example of peace loving Lagosians.

Sooner or later all Nigerian states will stop discriminating between indigenes and non-idengenes and rather be interested in establishing welcoming cities where the rule of law with fairness to everyone reigns.

To all saying negative things, Rome was not built in a day. The Government is looking into making the city a MEGA CITY and in future will not have room for the filty people who litter and pollute the whole state. Incinerators and Land fills will be used to manage the waste.

If speaking Yoruba in the House will make Lagos get to this next level and become a West African pride so be it! (This will definitely make some people jealous and this can be used positively by getting other states to start competing in attracting businesses and make better use of the big banks / abundant human and material resources)

Why all this bitterness about Yoruba being spoken in the Lagos Assembly?
Is one not free to speak the Language that he feels free with at home with spouse, kids and friends?

Lagos welcomes every person and will still welcome all those that choose it !

If speaking Yoruba will help bring sanity to the way things are done, what do we stand to loose?

Lagos is home to a lot of manufacturing and continues to be a preferred location for new businesses because it welcomes all. It even welcomed returned slaves in the past without discrimination and they are fully integrated into the society !

Lagos welcomes every person and will still welcome all those that choose it. There is no cause for alarm if Yoruba is used in the Lagos Assembly.

AYLALA, I agree there may be short changing in the pricing. I still wonder why GDR's. Only considering it as my Broker is marketing it and they did a good job with GTB (Final Price N28.5 per equivalent Share). The other goodside is I will not have returned money like FirstBank and the last Dangote offer (which is also a short-changing). Good to see GTB is on your list.

Agree with you Niger Insurance is a good buy. I am still analyzing the rest. Buying it may be a better bet than all the PO's / GDR. You get what you buy straight away no waiting for verification. And it may really result in more wealth once their released funds drive down the PE in 2008 (may end 2007 with PE of 25).

@AYLALA

The advice on GDR looks stiff, do you have further insights or reasons for advising against buying GDR's listed or un-listed. As I see the Diamond Bank GDR as a buy. It will most likely go at a 10% discount and this gives a very nice entry price of about N 16.5 Also the PE at this price is relatively low (current / projected PE of 22 / 18) compared to other banking sector stocks.
Also don't forget the good side of the GDR is your broker can tell you if you are going to get what you are intending to buy before you buy. And the Certificates come very fast. (Based on GTB GDR experience)

Obalende, I no get any special data on insurance stocks. However read from stockwatch newspaper that LASACO and GUINEA INSURANCE have very low PE's. However by the time I checked the prices I notice they have gained 20% and 100% respectively in November. Now not sure if the momentum will continue or the price will drop in December and recover next year to new higher levels.

PO comes with more guarantee of capital but not necessarily superior capital gain. It also has disadvantage associated with certificates (not being able to take profit as soon as one fancies), till the new direct credit to CSCS takes effect. Still looking for FirstBank direct credit to CSCS if they will lead on this.

I think Insurance Stocks will give good returns in 2008 if one selects well and takes position right away before they come with an avalanche of PO's. If one can make good selection and buy now, he/she will make good gains in 2008.

Also some non-bank / insurance stocks need to be identified. More info is needed on Interbrew, Transcorp etc. Any one with clues ?

Baba (OBJ) tried. And Yaradua is trying. Very soon things will get better and better not only in the stock market but in other areas.

Sooner Nigerians living outside will need to re-validate their citizenship before they are allowed to return as any one of African Ancestry will start claiming he is a Nigerian.

You need to find out why the change and try to help him if you consider he is still changeable to his old former self. After all when you met him and earlier years he was such a nice person. What or who turned him into this monster over the years ? Try to see how you can get back to the old state when love reigns with good compliments all the way as against complaints that may be reigning full blast from both sides at the moment. Perhaps you can heal the relationship. Also you need to talk and try to understand things that you do that hurt him or make him feel threatened.

As per beating. I do not support it. However who threw the first punch. I am not saying that even if you threw the first punch he has the right to beat you other than defend himself and get away from arms way.

Tonyjon, thank you for reaching out to CSCS office. Thus THE NUMERIC CSCS # IS THE RIGHT ONE TO USE.

It also tallies with what I gathered from 3 out of the 4 Brokers I contacted.

This will be proved right very soon as I am looking out for my First Bank PO to be credited direct to CSCS account number with broker. I believe this should be within the next 2 weeks.

Thanks to all for the contributions.

I wonder who was buying heavily last week and this week pushing the price up before it went flat yesterday and changed direction. I will like to know what is happening.
The people who but the public offer should be given double certificate for their faith.

tundetire thanks for the cheering info. I pray they succeed and they get listed on time.

walcolm that will happen if you address changes or their is a slight change in your name or you use a nominee service. Where my address were same, with two different brokers I was given the same alphanumeric number.

Listed where ? Definitely not NSE.
They may be verifying them shortly and they will be listed very soon on Insurance list of successful insurance companies. Amen.

Got mine from the mail box last week Thursday. Suspect a major source of delay is the mail system. Was initially worried. I could imagine how you feel.

dejacrue, I can see you advice the numeric number since the name of the broker is included in the offer form. I and some colleagues have consulted 4 different brokers namely (IBTC, NSL, CSL(FCMB), Zenith). Only 1 out of the 4 adviced us to use the alphanumeric number. Thus the confusion is still there. I wonder how the process of allotment works for crediting to CSCS.

I also don't think there has been any direct crediting to subscribers CSCS account to any stockbroker since the avalanche of offers. When it starts we'll know or be adviced on which one is the better to use as it creates less work for the registrars in alloting the shares to subcribers via their broker.

Lagos Underground Opens 01/01/2010. It runs all the way from Lekki to Ikorodu, Toll Gate, and Babadgry. Traffic congestion in Lagos now history. Special Service Connects Olokola now renamed Babs_O City.

Thousands of US/UK/Canadian Nigerians on long queues to revalidate their Nigerian Citizenships in other to Return Home where GDP now stands at USD 500,000 per annum.

Thanks to Babs_O Founder of the Babs_O Group.
Owners of the new Babs_O steel, Babs_O Oil and Gas and the Rebuya of Olokola the newest most developed mega city in the World.

easimoni. Thanks to wema too bought @ N3.5 and in less than a year it is worth N15. Fantastic!!!. It covers my losses in Conoil in which I though I bought at a discount at N 72 and is worth N59 now. I could be off to US disney next holiday season after all the traffic jams and blackouts here in Nija when I take profit. Thus it really looks like a waste of time looking for a US / UK stockbroker for now.

Hispy99
Please what is your experience on US stock trading. Is it worth it or NSE is the place to be right now and US stocks is a waste of time. Tots / eperience on this please.

Larger 20

Is this topic still on.

We need a MITTAL steel venture capitalist in Nigeria.

Let me know And I will explain further why you should come to Olokola and Operate side by side with OK LNG.

Crownvilla thanks for the insight shared. I spoke to a colleague who trades in his home country exchange in the Hague and he says his capital appreciation on average with his stocks are on average 10% per annum and dividend are not too bad at 3 t 4%.

I also read on how guys are hitting it big on the indian stock exchanges with money pouring in from non resident indians. Even I have tracked their mutual funds and seen crazy returns.

I have no doubts that NSE is a place to be right now for steady + 40% gains in dollar terms per annum even with wide pick of stocks. And the hard guys who invest more time will even achieve more. With good government the trend could continue for the next decade none stop. Especially as the Banks start growing the economy by funding both small and big ticket projects and when Soludo's AFC takes full footing in leveraging Nigerian Banks to finance viable projects freely in Sub-saharan africa. Plus our insurance companies taking up insuring bigger risks like Oil and Gas.

I think for now the London / US / European Stock exchanges are on a high and may drop over the next three years or stay flat. That is why I closed my mutual funds after achieving about 25% growth (£/Euro terms) and 50% growth dollar terms in the last 5 Years. (i.e. after initially suffering excruciating losses in 2003). NSE gave me about 500% in dollar terms in the same period!

Nice to hear any more insights or forecasts.

wanaj0 please can you give me a simple meaning of PEG and how it can be determined. And any experience with foreign stocks.

Don't be confused. Looking at CNN website I see some very good PE's (between 10 and 18) quoted for some popular American companies and I wonder how bullish NSE is on some banks with PE's even above 50. It's all about diversifying if one can and still grow.

It will be nice to hear some real experience on the market out there in US/UK etc.
Is it worth it even for the sake of diversifying.

Pheemyhan, It is good to be informed, that is why I am seeking those having UK/US/Canadian stock trading experience. Worked briefly on assignment abroad before and that it's the money I plan to use. I know the money I brought back to Nigerian Stocks against advice from friends has really yeilded excellent fruits. But I never tried foreign stocks but extremely useless mutual funds which I have since closed.

Anyone with stock trading experience UK/US/Canada/??
Is it worth it or a waste of time?

Does any one have experience of stock trading in Nigeria as well as any other foreign Stock exchange like London Stock Exchange or US Stock Exchange etc.

Do you think there is any advantage in having a foreign stock broking account for someone resident in Nigeria. ?
What are this advantages. ? Better PE's ? Dividend's? Growth ?
Which stock broking firms are available for Non Resident Nigerians in UK, US or Canada ?
What websites are available. ? [Made some searches and wasted a lot of time e.g. Nathwest Stockbrokers look good but the costs of trading and funding account looks high]

I will be grateful for useful clues to help me make a decision. And perhaps some others will find the info useful.

Iyke thanks. I have used the two on different occasions. I will watch out to see the one that will end up being credited directly to my CSCS account.

Has anyone got a public offer credited to CSCS directly before. Please share your experience. Which CSCS number did you use.

Money4you, FCMB closed today and it is reported they will not be extending as they are already fully subscribed. We will watch if the price will stay flat or drop after the suspension is lifted. With a projected Price to Book of 2.0 or less after allocation there is room for growth but it will not be phenomenal. I think the time for such rises may be coming to an end. I forecast a Price between N21 & N28 by end 2008.

On Zenith I'm not bullish as there could be too many people from past offers who may be waiting to take profit and this may affect the Share Price rise. However it looks attractive and I am still looking out for analyst reviews. The only annoying part is I will only be able to buy very few shares with todays prices. And this may make me snob the offer.

I will hold on to my Union Bank for 2 reasons. It has a large Asset base and the Price to Book is still very low compared to many other Banks. The second reason is speculation of a foreign investor wanting to come on Board. Also with better management the Bank can make better use of its assets.

Please can someone help me out. What is the correct CSCS number to use on Public Offer forms. I have been confused by brokers. Most say it's the purely numeric one and some say it's the alpha numeric one.

Also will either still work. Has anyone got experience on this.

Na wa O The amount they want to pay for dividend is too low. Does not look too good based on this. However if they will be used for bagging cement this prospectus statement must be underestimate. Also them no quote their current asset in prospectus. Haba them dey hide something?

Money4you, FCMB should be good. My assessment is based on current PE and Projected PE. On the comment parting with cash, its just opportunity cost. I can save N 140 k for future or use it on a trip to Dubai or buy something I can see now and enjoy it right away.