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BabsO2's Posts

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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:09pm On Dec 18, 2024
Sunrisepebble:
Was about to say this. Aradel that is being used as comparison already has a working refinery. Now they are adding 135kbpd of oil production and 350,000 mmscf of annual gas production (about another 150kboepd from my calculation ) with this acquisition. In addition they also have a power plant now, Afam VI (650MW capacity) that is connected to the grid already … The 5% stake in Chappal is also huge when they eventually IPO

Its night and day
I also haven't mentioned our potential London listing but wanted to leave out assumptions
Transcorp Plc is the owner of AFAM VI.
(TransPower listed on NGX owns Ughelli power assets. Afam VI is a separate asset under Transcorp PLC)
Take that out of your valuation assumptions of Aradel

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 6:24pm On Dec 17, 2024
mikeapollo:
Wale has also tried by ensuring that Oando is now compliant and up-to-date as regards NGX/SEC requirements for filing of quarterly results. Hopefully, we should have the unaudited accounts for Q4 2024 by Mar/Apr 2025 and the audited version by Jun 2025.
Wale should push the Auditors and Accountants to do better and not lag too much behind SEPLAT and ARADEL in reporting. In this new beginning no no to delayed reporting. If Seplat Audited comes in March. Oando should deliver its own latest April and not June please.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 6:16pm On Dec 17, 2024
KarlTom:
In recent times, most of the news from/about OandO are not easily understood... grin grin
With time they get understood grin grin grin
Like today it is clear delisting is out of the window after a long period of permutations and bettings.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 5:57pm On Dec 17, 2024
megawealth01:
My joy in this whole thing is that Wale said that he isn't delisting Oando...

In the days ahead Mr Time will do the needful?

WALE should go and sin no more?
grin grin grin

He should please position Oando to beat SEPLAT in having the biggest Assets while delivering to Oando Plc shareholders more equitably.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 5:16pm On Dec 17, 2024
mikeapollo:
Please can anyone verify this for me:

I did some rough estimates of the possible ratio for the bonus redistribution by Oando, based on the numbers provided above i.e. current 42% common shareholders to increase to about 65% after the exercise.

It seems the bonus could be in the ratio 1:2 (i.e. 1 new share for every two shares previously held).

Please the finance and mathematics gurus should help confirm
Is this a form of restitution from O&O to Oando plc shareholders?
A sign of new good beginnings shocked
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:05am On Dec 17, 2024
ositadima1:
Approximately one year from yesterday (2023-12-1 to 2024-12-15). You can see this in the code as the last 250 days.
Interesting. In the last 250 days those that got in below N15 won the bet so far. And those that sold below N15 kind of lost the bet. shocked
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 8:31am On Dec 17, 2024
ositadima1:
Oando was below 70 for quite a while, yet some people with their "tachere" thinking thought they were smarter than the big boys, who invested over 40 billion Naira at levels above that. If you had bought at 62, you would have outperformed those 50 billion Naira investments this year alone. Do you think the moneybags threw in that much money without analyzing the upside? Do you really think your "tachere" mindset and limited exposure can beat the billions? You’re deluded. grin

The same goes for Aradel. Billions have been invested at levels above the current price. Forget wretched analysis and follow the money (Billions).

shocked shocked shocked
For what time frame is this picture of Oando Value Profile ?
Great tip you share in the picture, for not betting (or is it investing) at a price above that of big money wink !!
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:23pm On Dec 14, 2024
Omooloriredade:
I struggle to see how Wale will fail to turn Oando at this juncture. He has the wind at his back.
Beautiful analysis as always. I enjoy reading your analysis!
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:06am On Dec 14, 2024
Omooloriredade:
#BetOnOando
Specially for you.

https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/6364224464112/oanda-ceo-on-building-energy-infrastructure-in-africa-/
This for all of us abegi. Nice interview with Wale. Make him just grow Oando to beat Seplat for us grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m):
Choiceguy:
@ Babs02 kindly share the site where you downloaded mkt activity history of Oando. Also Toyeoye it will be nice to have this type of search platform.
Click on market watch if you have investment-one brokerage account. This leads you to a site where you can watch the market in 3D like a broker.

I think anyone interested without a brokerage account linked to it can also subscribe and pay for the service of infoware limited directly on https://svcs.infowarelimited.com/IMDT/
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 5:44pm On Dec 13, 2024
Palmoil also gained about 20% in dollar terms this year. That means PRESCO and OKOMU will continue on their growth trajectory with ELLAHLakes perhaps joining them.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 5:38pm On Dec 13, 2024
chimex38:
Good question. same thing I always ask myself.
Always Missing in Action
Cocoa has surged this year in $$$$s more than doubling in price shocked

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m):
See the last set of trades for our OANDO today grin

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 4:34pm On Dec 13, 2024
megawealth01:
Meristem Customer Service just gave me this response...

"Kindly be informed that the stock market opens from 10: 00 am and closes by 2:20pm Mondays to Fridays"
Perhaps 2:20pm is when the last trade can be submitted. By 2:30 no trade can happen again officially.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 4:25pm On Dec 13, 2024
megawealth01:
No longer 2.20pm?
I think it's 2:30pm that's official close.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:54pm On Dec 13, 2024
toyeoye:
Not quite close at the time of posting the update sir.
Thanks.
The market closes at 2:30pm I notice the fastest brokers report the closing report earliest by a few minutes to 3pm. Suggesting final data is not ready until about 15 minutes or more after market closing. Thus I guess your site may not have the final data until about 3 pm also depending on when the final data comes from the market for day.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 2:44pm On Dec 13, 2024
toyeoye:
ARADEL has somehow leaped into top 5
Market has closed. So this should be the closing picture for today.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:42am On Dec 13, 2024
megawealth01:
Nigeria Cocoa Exports Jumps By 300% From ₦‎161.8 Billion To ₦‎644 Billion 

https://www.businessamlive.com/nigerias-6bn-cocoa-potential-drives-demand-for-serious-productivity-investments/
Interesting. So Nigeria with current price of Cocoa can make $25 billion from Cocoa. What the governors doing to make states safer and more attractive for business ventures. The $25billion can even be more if the right Nigerian entrepreneurs (investors) are in the value chain. This is one of the reasons I took some of Ellahlakes, hoping the management does good with all what they say on their website. FTN Cocoa why are you missing in action here?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:06am On Dec 13, 2024
megawealth01:
Do you have a price projection in the long term for uba?
That is in the hand of Mr Market who can even decide to bring the price further down instead of up. I can only guess dividends should be about N4 yearly going forward or at worst should not be less than N3. I can also roughly bet EPS going forward should not fall below N12 even with the expanded number of shares.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:00am On Dec 13, 2024
Streetinvestor2:
The guys in palm oil business na kill by yr end oh.I bought 1.5 litters of palm oil at #4500 yesterday for the quantity needed.The thing shock me though the vendor says it is of very high quality and not mixed
Okomu retails it palmoil in supermarkets. Very lovely palmoil. The last I bought this year was about N11k for 4 litre bottle
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:49am On Dec 13, 2024
robobo:
u sabi, plus another advantage is it help prevent the Ote$ effect/threat (hostile takeover)

this is an example of situation where our (retail investor/minority) interest (better pricing) aligns with that of mover/shakers.
After the RI and records are updated it will be clear if Tony took more UBA. This may only be know after about 6 months.

Tony buying a major chunk of the RI at a price higher than what the retail market offers injects money into UBA for the benefit of all shareholders. This is unlike a major shareholder buying up shares in the market to raise prices by injecting money into the hands of traders without long term benefits in terms of enlarged shareholder funds. I like this approach by Tony. This makes me give UBA a long term value (treasure) stock rating. This rating means those currently holding UBA should not sell it, but rather look for other shares to sell should they need urgent 2k.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:07am On Dec 13, 2024
Mpeace:
I pray Elumelu considers taking more shares like 70-85% stake in his listed companies. It will help him(and help us too)
I think he will take more of UBA (and help us too by creating new higher price support for UBA). Doing rights at a low price would have resulted in a lower price support for UBA.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 5:02pm On Dec 12, 2024
Raider76:
Who will buy @28 when the RI is @25, a more than 10% difference? The extension of the RI period to 30th December may also be discouraging people.
How can the extension be discouraging people?
I think the extension can only help to increase participation and not discourage anyone who wanted to subscribe as the change of date was only know a day to the original closing date. And the N25 RI price looks fairly attractive once comapred to many other banks.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:32pm On Dec 12, 2024
The offer volumes on FBNH is not relenting. With the extension of the RI the pressure just seem to be mounting. And the FBNH bullion vans are no where to be seen in the market.

Perhaps this FBNH RI is adding to the market trading sideways as shareholders attempt to sell other shares in other to pick their rights shocked
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m):
owolabi5:
TRANSCORP MAY BE NEXT!

That dude is grossly undervalued relative to its subsidiaries.

#TONY INDEX grin

#BILLIONAIRES INDEX grin
Transcorp further take off may come after the UBA rights is successfully completed and perhaps over subscribed by accepting some over subscription.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 8:06am On Dec 11, 2024
parisbookaddict:
i think those FPI will see the naira gains on the dollar as an incentive to stay put on the market. my fear was that a continuing depreciating naira would discourage foreign participation, especially after a trump win. Does anyone else have thoughts on this?
Without some form of currency controls there will be increased demand that will pull the price up as supply is not as high as speculative demands.

You can see the push of speculative demand in the video below


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0uoeq4nxrY

A relatively stable exchange rate is good for businesses as it allows better planning. While an unstable one is risky for businesses. CBN may need some form of currency controls to stabilize exchange rates. The willing buyer willing seller approach cannot give stability for businesses.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:37am On Dec 11, 2024
Omooloriredade:
When it comes to regulatory disclosures and investor relations, Seplat has such a high standard that it may be almost impossible for Oando to match.

Oh boy! See detailed presentation na. A lot of work sifting through the web, results to find corresponding data on Oando.
Indeed some work needed to compile similar information for Oando. And the compilation may be incomplete especially around funding. From the little work I did it seems Oando has more reserves but lower current production than SEPLAT, suggesting it may need more fund injection to attain potential for the country.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 8:50pm On Dec 10, 2024
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42688_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC-ANNOUNCEMENT_ON_UK_PROSPECTUS_PUBLICATION_REGARDING_MPNU_ACQUISITION_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_DECEMBER_2024.pdf

Like the information released by SEPLAT on NGX today. I guess Oando must have published something similar. Will be good to compare.

This news didn’t move the market. That means it’s not new information.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:38am On Dec 09, 2024
mikeapollo:
I am not impressed with the 50% increase in output as announced by Oando.
Before the acquisition, Oando, ENI and NNPC were in a JV with ratio 20: 20: 60 respectively
After Oando acquired ENI, their share in the new JV is now 40%, which should automatically translate to an increase in output of 100% or thereabout.
So why are they only achieving a 50% increase 3 months after the acquisition? Are they unable to fully exploit and produce from the fields?
Oando should be reporting at least 80% increase in output by now, otherwise something more fundamental may be wrong e.g. inability to acquire rigs and other equipment to produce crude oil as much as possible.

Experts in the oil and gas sector can educate me on this if I am mistaken.
I read also as a possible reduction in production of the total assets post take over being spun as a rise in Oando production shocked
Looks like the trick didn't work for the market if so as no price rally right now.
They need another catch grin Like say explicitly Oando ramped up total asset JV production from x to y for Naija cool
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 6:08pm On Dec 07, 2024
mails4funshi:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPmz4uaeJdo
Great. In six months it will be clearer if the management is ok if indeed profits start rolling in as said.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 2:48pm On Dec 07, 2024
grin
crownprince2017:
In anything you do don't let analysis paralysis about Nigeria economy send you away from the stock market, history will be rewritten.
2025-2026 will be massive.
Few words is enough for the wise.

grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:38am On Dec 04, 2024
Sunrisepebble:
In the long run the dollar will always appreciate against the Naira. It is just economic fact.
Dollar forever remains dollar, i've never seen anyone regret buying dollar. Unless you are buying for trading purposes, like those looking to make gains on the trade earlier in the year when Naira fought back a little and later depreciated again
In the global context. Some analysts for several years have predicted a fall in dollar with respect to global currencies. But the opposite seem to have happened in the last 3 to 5 years.

For Naira, as long as we consume more than we produce locally, the naira is bound to continue falling especially with our rapid population growth relative to the rest of the world.

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